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Last week we had, essentially, a lot of bad news. Now, early this week, we will have a lot of financial results reports . We have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and then Donald Trump's joke about what's going on in Iran. But first I want to talk about this idea, and, um, I think, the fake news that we saw over the weekend, because over the weekend you saw, maybe you weren't on social media, I don't know.
But I saw the news going around about Ken Griffin saying there was an AI bubble . This is almost certain. Now, I recommend you watch the full video on your own, but I want to talk about the specific clip that this was said about, and also what he says right after that that no one actually says, because I think that's what's really important here.
Bubble first, that maybe it's a bubble . Um, Ray Dalio thinks so. Howard Marks says he's watching for bubbles. The BIS says this has echoes of the dot-com boom. And I wonder if it's possible to find out if it's a bubble. And if you have any specific thoughts on this , if it's a bubble, and if it's a bubble, it looks like it's going to burst at least in certain parts of the different layers of AI.
Well, so the big picture is that there are almost certainly bubbles at this point in time. And any radical transformation of our economy is usually associated with a bubble. This is very important, okay? Because he says there is certainty that there are bubbles in the market right now . He's not saying the entire AI market is a bubble.
He moves on to the next part and says that any radical change within our market is almost always associated with bubbles. Again, look at any big change, any big innovation. Most recently, obviously, the dot-com bubble, okay? Now he'll go into more detail on this in a second , but it's important that we actually hear what's being said, because often we take snippets, like what's being promoted on the internet right now, and only hear what fits our agenda, our biases.
So if we short the market, then there is a bubble, right? But where is this bubble actually located? This is the most important question that, in my opinion, people should ask themselves. Good. Remember how in 1999, 2000 we used the metrics that we used to evaluate Internet companies? And let's be clear, some of these internet companies had some pretty bizarre business models.
But I mean, I just regretted not holding onto my Amazon shares from that point on. And the internet, which was, you know, a big bubble. This is the part that got me thinking. Isn't that right? And that fits my plans to some extent, so maybe I'm a little biased. But it's interesting to hear his perspective on this.
I wish I had at least kept my Amazon shares. Right? And again , I...I don't want to be the kind of person who brings up, you know, examples of what happened, but I just want to bring up a few similar moments and instances, right? For example, if we think about what would happen if you just kept something like this...I would name three: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft.
If you could buy at the peak of the dotcoms, you would invest privately , whatever it was, okay? So if you did, I should mention it here. I copied and pasted. But here's what would happen. A thousand dollars at the peak of the dot-com bubble up until 2002, 2003 would have turned into 17 thousand dollars in Microsoft today.
$74,000 on Amazon. 370,000 for a name like Apple. Again, some of it would be private, but still contextual, what to imagine or what to think about. You can even look at the 2008 crash, which wasn't a technology- heavy, you know, you know, directional crash, but still very similar, very remarkable numbers.
You can also add Google to the equation. And it really is...And I recommend you watch the whole interview. You should...It's 40 minutes. This is a good interview. Very good. And he goes into detail about his son and the things that happened to him, and how again , the internet just changed everything, didn't it?
And how it is so interconnected. He believes the same thing is probably happening with artificial intelligence, and it's not going anywhere. So you should watch it and form your own opinion. So, that's really where I sit , and I just wanted to include that in today's video because I think it really shows both sides.
And again, what I'm saying here on the channel is not about the full risk of shipping. So, okay, we're discounting the stock, guys. Let's buy the riskiest names, like Iron or Coreweave. Let's go, let's go, let's go, let's buy these names. No, right? At this time, we are buying the number one names, the financially viable ones that can survive any downturn, and if we look at those names, they are again not that attractive.
You may not triple your money in 2 years. Oh no. I'm very sorry. But these names sound like Google. They have the money to survive anything. Meta, another monstrous name. If this thing falls, I'll buy more. Again, everyone says Meta is going to crash. Meta is spending all its money. The same thing happens when they had the VR thing, right?
You know what? It was so bad. But what happened? They lowered the price to $100, but literally within 2-3 years they increased 7 times, and since then everyone has been silent about virtual reality. And now you hear the same narratives. I think even with semiconductors. We look at names like Nvidia.
Nvidia, a huge bubble. Everyone was saying that, but now we're, you know, almost at the 250 mark. Micron, it's a bubble. This is a cycle. The facts are that things are changing dramatically. And if you don't study them yourself, you 'll just keep getting lost, okay? So, where we are, I want that to be the focus .
And again, and I have to give preference, I buy stocks that are falling. When do we start, when do I think we might have hit rock bottom, right? And I'm probably a little late to this party, I'm going to start buying jumps, long-term options. But until then , right now, I'm buying names that I do n't think will benefit AI anywhere.
And again, I buy them at a certain price. This is my personal opinion. I'll keep doing the same thing over and over again, right? So , I'm looking at why , and I hope you guys, again, if you disagree with me , that's totally fine. But if you want to have a reasonable conversation , please go to X. That's where I'm easier to talk to.
On the other hand, just be logical. I like to have respectful arguments, do n't you? I don't want just swearing and just madness. I want to hear, "Okay, here's why I think you're wrong." And I say, "Okay, here's why I think I'm right." And then we can kind of exchange ideas , and that's how you really learn .
That's how you make progress, and I think that's actually good for that kind of dialogue and community, right? So, let's take a look at the graphs, what we're looking at and why, okay? Before we dive into today's video, which is already pretty far along, at the 7 minute mark, I want to say right now, guys, the channel sponsor is Kalshi.
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Again , all the indicators are there for you. Links below, check them out. You should also get a bonus when you sign up through our link. Again, we really appreciate it. Now, getting back to the market, okay? Starting with Spy, moving on to QQQ, what are we looking at and why. Spy, first of all, ma-monster beginning this week.
Um, and this... This is kind of the best-case scenario for me when you find yourself in this position. Yes, it's a small range that you're in, but you're between 760.4 and your 100- meter slide, which is actually 758. I like that. So, to me, that basically means that this little area is pretty much a no-trade zone, right?
But, once we make a decision about a breakout or a dip, I become aggressive in that direction. Because again, I think it's pretty clear. If you break above 760.4, you get good news, you move towards the 50 MA. If you break below the 100-100 MA, 758, I think you're moving down to 748. Maybe not quite there, but again, that's the direction I'm aiming for, where I'm trading, I'm looking for continuation, something like that.
The other side of this, where things worry me more , is QQQ, Nasdaq. I have already made that clear. Hmm, I've discussed this many times. So number one here, okay, it's not a key level , but it's a level that we've been setting for the last 3-4 months, right? Mainly 705, 700-705. I would, I would, so I equate it to, okay?
And we found a lot of support here, basically, from August, September, into October, right? And you try to hold it. If you start, and really the confirmation for me would be a loss at the $700 level, because you just don't want to be too aggressive. But if you lose that low from September, I'm looking at 693, 686, to be exact, okay?
These are the important things I will be keeping an eye on. And then, eventually, to the 200 million sliding scale. If you stay above 705, it could fall sharply, trading back in the uptrend. Just be careful. It's back and forth . But SPY is a cleaner up trade, my personal opinion, what I'm looking at .
Stocks and what we're looking at in the market here . I was looking at the FOMC which is on Wednesday. Inflation data was bad. I looked at this, Russia, Iran in yesterday's video. I was looking at profits and things like that. I want to go into really detail just the list of stocks, what you should be looking at , uh, the charts, if you want to trade this week, what and why, okay?
Anything that has a profit, if I mention it here again, just consider that they have a profit. And again, they might be more expensive, you might have to trade a little shorter, do what you need to, okay? So, let's get to it quickly. Number one, Nvidia. I think this is probably the most important stock chart at the moment .
So, I'll quickly get rid of the indicators so we can see what I'm looking at. Again, the key level, and this is on the indicator, is 212.2. Now, again, if you use Trade Deck , which I recommend you do, tradedeck.io, link below. Try them. And the free community and Discord are below. If you just want to trade with us, you will also get all the information.
Again , the link below is to our, you know, private Discord, what we do there. Now, looking at the Trade Deck and what's going on there, going into Nvidia, we try to make sure that everything is detailed so that you know what you're looking at. And again, the big level is number one, you're below your 100-tear average, that's concerning.
And then you're also below 212, which is also there. So make sure you keep an eye on these levels. However, when we come back here, this is your previous historical high from 2025. You turned over 212 and I think you have some concerns. I think you have some problems. Now , again, without indicators, you think, "Okay, well, you dropped them lower, but you bounced higher." Well, you don't have the same levels of support now, do you ?
You had a 100-move moving average that you held, you held, and you bounced back up. Now you don't have it. And you will also be looking down at 207 number one, which you reached there earlier. But on the other side of the 200- point moving average, 203, 204. So I really look at that as kind of a magnet, where we're going to be pulled , what I'm going to look at.
Um, if not more complicated, but I think that could be the main indicator of observation now, okay? What we see there. If you get above 212, looking at 214, above 214, the 100-move moving average, I think you look good. 216.8, back to 222. Not a bad graph we see there, okay? Micron. Again , Micron is not the prettiest.
Again , getting rid of the key level indicator here so you can see a little bit more clearly yourself, again , you had support at the 890-900 level, which we talked about a lot , right? This is the level we wanted to maintain. Very similar to Nvidia, very similar to Nasdaq. And again, you lose shares.
So not only are you losing stock, you can see this small low, 888. But also, on top of that, your 891 is a big level. You're breaking through, you're testing, and you've been put...It seems you want to back down. Not a very good start. We want to follow the KOSPI, the Korean market, and what's happening there, but it's not a very good start to the week, okay ?
And you have SK Hynix, which, again, remember, also has a Korean name, and reports on Tuesday. So it's a double whammy , right? And again , below that, you know, I'm targeting 760-720. And that's where I really want to start buying potential Micron shares, okay? I do n't think Micron is going anywhere.
This is a personal opinion, do what you need. Um, but as always, do your own research. But this is where I'm going to start getting more aggressive about Micron stock, specifically for myself, okay? I have DRAM from the past, but again , I'm slowing down a bit. I have DRAM stocks and I want to add Micron stocks just for myself on this downtrend.
Why are we considering further updates on X? Do you have all the updates here? If you exceed 891, you have room to grow. We also have many levels there. Again, this is also in the Trade Deck for you. Um, but again , you know, it's...They travel a certain distance until you get to the next position, right?
So raise that to 7.5%. Again, you have nothing. So, again, I think it's about 7 or 925-that's when the next level comes into play, I believe. Let me actually turn them off so you can see. Yeah, not really, 956. So you had a little resistance at 920, 925, but again, 956 is the next big level. So, what are we looking at, why are we following this.
Next comes Tesla. There are many levels here regarding Tesla. We do a lot of day trading, and you've been in the same range for a long time on Tesla, right? So let's lower that to about 5% so we can see. Tesla is currently making pretty good profits. Again , I think a lot of this has to do with the idea of merging with SpaceX.
How long can this hold us up? That's the same million dollar question. I think it's very difficult to be pessimistic about Tesla as long as you're above the 100 moving average. As long as you are above the 100 moving average, you are in the range from your daily moving average of 200 to your 100, as we have talked about so much.
Again, trading at your levels is key. Don't overcomplicate things. Know what you are looking for. Know why you are looking for it. And again, use levels , use range continuously . It was back and forth. So again, flat at 40, if you lose the 100 moving average, I'm looking for a straight drop to 364.
That's your 50 moving average. If you lose that, then I think the bears will take a little more control. But again , it's more of a range for me. Above the 200 moving average, 386, I'm becoming very, very, very bullish on this name. But until then, be careful. SpaceX is also finding vendors here. Getting bad news actually with the idea that Anthropic's IPO doesn't look as good as we thought.
Hmm, but also, I think this is a net positive for SpaceX. I also think SpaceX's earnings were really good. However, as far as SpaceX is concerned personally, I'm not a very grateful trader on this name right now. Many of the wicks in 144, 145 were strange. Hmm, I'm patiently waiting for SpaceX to fall.
Um, I didn't believe it, to be completely honest. I'll be completely honest. I like to be honest with you guys. When I'm wrong, I'm wrong. When I am right, everything is as it is. I'm right, right ? But I like to focus more on when I'm wrong, because I think when I'm wrong, and I don't know if you guys feel the same way, but I feel like I learn a lot more from my mistakes, my failures , my losses in general, right?
I didn't necessarily have, you know, a clean short positioning for this name or anything like that . I made good money on the drop, but I wasn't a buyer of the stock at around $100 because I thought Elon's words were crazy. And a lot of what he says sounds crazy. For example, that it will reach a turnover of one hundred billion dollars by the end of the year .
But it's actually possible that it's crazy right now because we're currently aiming for a turnover of $65 billion. They make everything... They make a lot more money than Anthropic, a lot more money than ChatGPT. So they have more of this monetization. They make more money than just from their AI products, right?
They have computing, they have Starlink, they have a few government contracts , right? But artificial intelligence is becoming their sole focus. And I think Elon will succeed. I think he's going to kill it , don't you? So I like SpaceX if we started getting a more aggressive drop in the stock. I'm not really a day trader.
Less than $150 I'm leaning towards a decline. 135 is the IPO price. If we lose it, I think sellers might get a boost. I'll keep you posted if I want to trade this, but again, that's what I'm watching and why . Um, Meta, that was another big name we were talking about, right? Especially after the earnings report, right?
We knew a few things here. Below 710 it was a direct path to 688, right? Very clear, very easy to see. You can actually raise the levels. You can show them all. There's going to be a lot going on, so, you know, bear with me. But again , below 710 it was a straight path to 788, then you go up again, then you fall down again .
So, where are we now? I really like Meta, but, and what I said in the video after the earnings call was that I thought, "I'm going to be patient, right?" Um, I want to buy this near the 200- mile average. Well, to my surprise, within 24 hours you reached a 200- meter moving average. And I thought, “Okay, I like it, but I didn’t want us to reach the 200-meter mark in a day.
It's not a good sign that, you know, the buyers couldn't do anything and you went straight down ." So I'm, you know, rolling the dice, trying to wait a little longer. I think Meta is still a worthy long-term buy at this point. I don't think you'll be red in 5, 2 years, 1 year. I personally think they would be good company.
Uh, but then again, that's where we are now . If we start to flip the 200-meter moving average, I'm leaning towards a bearish bias. And again , I'm watching the same levels that we've been trading at for so long here. So, if you lose the 200- meter moving average around 100, 617 , 618 will come quickly.
I do n't know if you guys remember, but we were stuck there for months, okay? So if you get, you know, bad news , you're below 630, that's an easy trade back in my opinion. You have some gaps. It could be much worse than 618, but what and why is what I am observing. And Meta was very illiquid, moving very quickly, so I like this opportunity created there.
But again, there is great support here. Be very careful in the short term. In the long run, I still like it. I still love it. Uh, again , I'm a big fan. Names like Amazon. I'm waiting on Amazon this week with any sales, any bad news all the way up to the 200th MA, especially on earnings. Again , this breaks this pattern of higher lows, effectively going back to September...well, you know, early September.
But where are we now? We are waiting for 243 as support. Profits again on Thursday . So, be careful what we look at, why we look at it. AVGO, we talked about this a lot . I think it's a good name in the long run . But again, you have gaps here. You go down to 317, your gap is here. Your next position down is at 307.
I think you will have more support from 310 to 300. That will be all the support . Let's see what happens next. Um, if we start flipping, it could get worrying. I'm not looking at an aggressive decline. We're just scalping the decline in some of these semiconductors right now. Just not for me. But AMD, I think there's some chance of a downside if you want to trade it, okay?
So something like a 2-hour or 1-hour is what you're really looking at. So they had some bad news about expectations, calculations, how much money they were going to make. Um, you know that I'm personally not a fan of AMD. Simply not. But if you look at AMD right here, that's what you're looking at , okay?
The key level is actually 527. 100 MA is 527. Double whammy. We like it when these mergers stack up . Below 527 you see weakness. Now, what gets even better is that we talked about this in the previous video. Below 527, looking for 505, 506. You reach the level , you bounce up. What you're looking at this week is that if you find any selling below 506 at all, that's a problem.
And again , I like to see how many times we've tested where we stood before. And we were at 470 for a minute, okay? Basically since July 16th you have been bouncing up and down again. From approximately July 27th until actually September 8th. We were just standing at this level , weren't we? For almost a month and a half, two months.
So it's a big position to watch. And again, you move up quickly, you can move down just as quickly. So what's going on there? We are watching perhaps the weakest, most worrying half a percent. But you need to go below 506 to get that confirmation. If you want to do more, you know, scalp, get in, get out, you expect a rejection at the 527 level.
You're still below that level, that's what the downside is. If you go above 527, yes, there is no room to go up to 550. So, the minimum is 542, the 50th MA. So again, a lot of deals on both sides here. I'll definitely keep an eye on this too. Google this week's earnings. This has some potential for decline.
You know what I bought from Google. I'm slowing down a bit now. My next big buy zone is around 305 to 300, that's where I'm looking at this time frame, filling this gap here. Again , big support near 314, 313, what I'm watching from below right now. So, this is more of an intraday setup, I would watch for intraday trading.
You want to see a breakout and hold below Friday's lows. If it stays below Friday's lows into Monday, you have a slight, slight, slight decline. And you finally see that hyperscalers look weaker compared to the rest of the market. So, we saw that mainly the semi-industrial positions were hit because of the CXMT news, the RAM news coming out of China, but now we see that it's hit all over the place, right?
So it is not focused on just one area of the market. It's the rest of the market actually following what we see there. So what I'm looking at, why I'm looking at this, one important thing I'll say is also to express my gratitude to Discord . You know, there's only one short-term stock we wanted to make money on.
And this is ServiceNow. Greetings. We talked about that a little bit too. Again , we mentioned that if you go above 150, you have room to go up to 162. And honestly, it could go even further, to fill the gap at 170. Software is in a slump right now . I'm a big fan of what's happening with ServiceNow.
They have earnings reports this week, so keep your head on a high note . Looks very good above the 50-meter teardrop, held at 141, 141.6 was your previous all-time high from 2021. So, the big monster retest is the daily timeframe you can see. Came back to level, held for 1 2 3 days, and then boom, took off, found a good buy.
The software still looks good. Palantir also looks interesting, above 195. Hmm, CRM looks very good. Um, some other names are retreating, but, uh, cybersecurity also rebounded nicely on Friday. Again , cybersecurity, you guys, you know, just love it in 100,200 MA. CrowdStrike, NET, PANW, PANW is the best name of all.
Um, these are just some of the famous names I like. So, again, do what you can. Link below. See you in the next video.
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