저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 투자자 Vijay Kedia가 초보 투자자에게 선물·옵션 투자의 위험을 경고하고 적립식 투자(SIP)와 뮤추얼펀드를 권하는 인터뷰다. 초보자가 이해 없이 선물·옵션을 거래하는 것은 안전벨트 없이 F1을 모는 것과 같아 사고가 불가피하며, 직접 겪어야 배운다고 강조했다. 인도 지수옵션의 소매 거래대금이 35% 늘었다는 데이터를 언급했다. 저축률 하락 문제에 대해서는 중산층이 지출을 줄이거나 금융 지식을 키워 주식시장에 참여해야 하며, 초보는 뮤추얼펀드나 매니저를 통해 투자하라고 권했다. 월 5만 루피 정기 투자로 5억 루피에 이를 수 있다는 과거 발언도 언급됐다. 해외 투자와 관련해 중국 ETF를 1년간 매수했다고 밝혔다. 6개월간 약 30% 상승했으나 고점 대비 절반 가까이 하락했다고 했다. 트럼프 행정부와의 관세 갈등에 대해서는 예측이 불가능하다면서도, 관세가 140%에서 30~40% 수준으로 낮아졌고 최악의 확전은 지나갔다고 낙관했다. 인도 시장은 Nifty와 Sensex가 예상보다 강하게 회복했지만 자신은 지수가 아닌 개별 종목에 투자하므로 상승 분화가 나타날 것이라고 봤다. 관광(항공사, 호텔), 병원, 전기차·에너지 섹터를 유망하게 보며, 병원주는 비싸지만 좋은 실적이 예상된다고 했다. 개인 보험은 생명보험을 20년간 가입하지 않았고 건강보험 보장액은 약 40~50 lakh이라고 밝혔다. 마지막으로 월 1만 루피를 20년간 12% 수익률로 적립하면 백만장자가 된다는 SIP 메시지를 강조했다. 언급된 국내 종목과 자산에 대한 구체적 방향 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
Well, for beginners, uh, dealing in futures and options without understanding is like driving a Formula 1 car without a seat belt. So, an accident is inevitable. We've already discussed this, and I've said it on various platforms. I even wrote songs about it . But it seems that people don't understand.
So ultimately I realized that, well, ultimately you have to pay the price for this experience if you really want to learn. And if you want to become, uh, well, let's say, a mature investor in the market, then perhaps that path lies through futures and options. That's the only thing I realized. Until you get burned, until you fall, you won't learn.
This is such a process. I went through this process too, and everyone will have to go through it. So that's okay. Sooner or later, uh, the main thing is that anyone who deals in futures and options without understanding will realize that it's not for them. If that suits you, then that's fine. If not, well, that's okay too .
The market teaches everyone. Yes, data shows that retail turnover of index options increased by 35%. So, instead of So, people aren't listening, but more and more people are coming into the market now. I truly believe that retail investors are the kings of this market. So everything is fine. They will learn.
They listen. On the other hand, you also encouraged the middle class, you know, to invest more in mutual funds. Retail investors should invest in mutual funds instead and improve their savings rate because, uh , I think in one post you mentioned how easily you can reach a capital of 5 crores by investing 50,000 regularly.
Uh, so how about this? Do you think the low savings rate, which you also highlighted, could be a big problem for Why should this be a problem? I think this should be a boon for these investors. After all, if savings rates are falling, that's what you're really talking about. Yes. So what will the middle class ultimately do?
They only have a few options left. Either they have to cut their expenses or they will have to limit their lifestyle, branded items, etc. They need to cut costs there. Or they have to increase their, as you say, income, which is not in their hands. Or they will have to adapt, learn financial literacy to increase their income, which can come from the stock market.
But since you are new to the market, you cannot invest directly. Therefore, you first need to contact a mutual fund or manager. I think lowering savings interest rates will attract more people to investing and financial literacy, which is good for the economy and the stock market. And besides the US, have you invested in other markets?
Other markets—I haven't invested directly in any country, but there are Chinese ETFs on the Indian stock exchange. So over the last year I've bought these Chinese ETFs. Of course. Which must have been profitable, considering how Chinese... Not that they were successful, you know, 6 months after the purchase they grew by 30% or so.
But now they have fallen again to half their peak. Maybe it's 15-20%, but I don't count it that way. I bought them, maybe to last four or five years, I don't know. I hope they do well, but there is so much uncertainty right now because of their feud with Trump and the US. It's a little risky, but I like risks, so it's okay, no problem.
And you know, since you mentioned it, how do you think these tariff disputes will develop further? What about the impact on India? What about the impact on China? Can you share your thoughts? I don't know. Anything I say now will be just guessing, because no one knows what's on his mind. Nobody knows what Trump is thinking.
Nobody knows what is on China's mind. Nobody knows anything about it . But I think, in the end, everything will work out. This has already started to get better. From 140% or whatever the tariffs were for China, they went down , I don't know, to 30-40% or whatever they are now. Perhaps, over time, both sides will realize that they need to make some concessions.
You take two steps, I'll take two steps. So, in the end, I think everything will work out. This will not escalate further. Any escalation that could have happened, I think, is already behind us. After all, they are all businessmen, you know. So they will find a compromise. What is your forecast for the Indian stock market going forward?
Regarding the Indian market, I think the situation will be mixed, you know? Of course, we are seeing a strong recovery in the indices, the Nifty and BSE Sensex have recovered very well indeed. Beyond my expectations, I tell you, I never expected the index to recover so strongly. But none of my investments are index-linked, okay?
Only major indices. So for me, that's perfectly acceptable. This does not mean that the index is currently somewhere near its peak or is slightly fluctuating in different directions. But my stocks don't behave like the index. So that's okay. So, I think the market will be mixed. Some stocks may reach new highs.
Some stocks may not reach new highs for the next 3-4 years. So there will be a heterogeneous trend. My approach is a “bottom-up” approach, as we say in the market. I invest in companies. I don't invest in an index, I invest in individual stocks. I don't invest in an index. So it doesn't matter whether it goes to a new high or not.
This is completely normal. Are there any sectors that you are particularly focusing on? I have already talked about three or four sectors, for example, tourism, which, in my opinion, can become promising, since the government is focused on developing domestic tourism . In this regard, airlines must show good results.
I own shares in one airline, they have to be successful. Accordingly, hotels and related services should also grow. I don't have any hotel shares. I also believe that hospital promotions should be successful. So why hospitals? Hospital promotions—what is the rationale? Because the population is growing, India is a country with an increasing population.
People finally realized after COVID that the greatest asset in life is good health. As the Hindi saying goes: "The first happiness is a healthy body, the second happiness is a good home." This is more important than money , you know. Now people understand this. I believe that all hospitals should be successful, but I will tell you that they are expensive.
All hospital stocks are very expensive right now. But I think they will show good results, plus, of course, the development of electric cars, EVs and other things is still ahead. So, energy, electric vehicles—all of this has to work well. What about insurance : life or health? Medical, of course, there is.
I haven't taken out life insurance for the last 20 years. I think there are some old policies. Maybe I was replenishing them, as they say. So I have a little insurance. Of course. And health insurance, what is the coverage? Medical, probably about that, I don't remember anymore. Somewhere around 40-50 lakhs.
And finally, sir, can you say something in your own style for viewers who are just starting to plan investments , build a long-term portfolio, and have financial goals? How should these people invest, save, and plan for the future? So, I wrote a Hindi song for all the newbies or those who are new to the market.
Not for experts, okay? Budget for savings and investment in a better guru. Start with SIP investments and relax. Save 10,000 per month for 20 years. At 12% you will become a millionaire. Make your life prosperous. Before spending. Thank you, sir, for joining us today.
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