저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장이 약세 국면에 있으며 대세 상승장은 과거보다 길어졌지만 조정 후 대개 9개월 내 바닥을 형성한다고 주장. 현 하락은 6월 무렵 끝날 수 있다고 봄. 개별 종목은 과도한 하락 후 매력적이며 전력 관련주(PE 5~7배)를 선호하고 중소형주에 일부 매수했다고 밝힘. 인도 증시 참여 인구 증가와 인구·생산성 성장에 따라 장기 낙관. 트럼프 관세는 예측 불가하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
So to what extent are we unattractive? To what extent is she attractive? Where will we be attractive and some other market will be unattractive? No, look, the bicycle keeps moving. As far as China is concerned, I invested in mutual funds because mutual funds are already listed in India by SEBI and the government.
So I invested in them within that range and I did that because they did not perform at all for 16 years and the economy reached great heights in those 16 years. China's economy has grown so much in 16 years and the stock market has not performed. So I had an investment call and what was the question about it, China, where do you see the Indian market becoming attractive, the Indian market is also like this, see how I feel that the time of Mahakumbh is over in the stock market, the Mahakumbh which comes once in 12-14 years, it is over once, Kumbh will come every year, that Kumbh does not end but that Mahakumbh will end, so you will still get a chance to take a bath in Prayagraj for purification, what I feel is that after 2003, the major structural change that has happened in India is that the bull markets have started getting bigger and the bear markets have started getting smaller.
Before 2003, bear markets used to last for three to four years, while bull markets used to end in 8, 9 or 10 months. The bull market that happened after 2003 lasted for four to five years. Even in that, there were fluctuations of 15-15%-20% in between. The shares fluctuated by 25-30%. There is nothing like that in it, but that bull market which [sound of clearing throat] if you believe, lasted for four years, after that the Covid crisis came and within 9 months it became low.
Look, after it was made, the market never broke it. Then the market gave time wise correction and individual scripts got multiple at that time also. Even between 2009 and 2014, there are individual scripts which got multiplied. This happened during the time of Covid also. That bull market which continued after 14, understand till 2020 or till 19, whatever is there due to Covid, understand till 20, after that after Covid the biggest crisis of the century came, that too within 9 months, if you see index to index, I am not talking about individual scripts, index to index bottom was made, after that that index was never broken, then whatever happened after that is in front of everyone, I feel that the same thing is going to happen this time too, ultimately whatever is going on, it will end in 9 months, if I apply numerology, if I apply its principle, then it will end in 9 months.
So it's been going on since September so it should probably be over by June. There are individual scripts and their moves are different. Sometimes they become the bottom, sometimes they become later, sometimes they become earlier because there are 6000-7000 shares, so they all do not move in the same pattern.
So even looking at the index is deceptive. I think so too. So sir, in this situation when there has been such a decline in the market. Two faces open up. As per your convenience, either take the first part or the second part. Participate here and run away. Which side are you on? No, the time to run away from the runway is over.
Now you have to participate and that was the time to sell, that is gone, now everything has already fallen by 40-40, 50-50 rupees. What is there in it now, but you have to make this choice, you will find many such shares in it, the prices which they have made in 2024, it is possible that they may not get those prices.
I don't know whether he did not come for 5 years, he came for 10 years or he came for 2 years. But you will have to study the individual stocks of this very word. There may be some shares which have reached their bottom during the euphoria and the prices that you people have created during the hangover period, those prices are not going to come back and the good script which is reasonable in which the rise was also reasonable, understand that and today if they have fallen to such attractive levels then it is time for you to buy them, those shares are going to give you good returns.
Sir, no one listened to me in such a hurry. In recession, no one is left worth listening to. So at one time, people were lining up to buy shares of multiples of 200 or even shares of multiples of 50. Nowadays it is available in multiples of 15 and 20 also. No one is ready to take that either. So has this situation arisen now that yes, now you can go, you are comfortable.
The equity portfolio allocation should start at 20%-25% of your overall portfolio. It is a matter of personal choice. Like I have bought some shares within the last week. I can tell you mine. I bought some shares and this is to understand that 35-40 taka was deducted from the top. I understand it will decrease by another 10-15%.
So I have taken these with the understanding that whether tomorrow comes or not [laughs] and if it falls then it will fall, so if you are seeing any pocket of mid cap, small cap or broader markets, then yes, it seems that this pocket has become a little comfortable where at least there is not much to lose.
It is difficult to say this. Again, there are individual stocks like this. Meaning every share has a different pattern. Their valuations are different. So it is difficult to say this. I like power related stocks which finance power or finance power or power because I feel that their revaluation was reasonable earlier also.
Now after falling, she has become very attractive. And that should be good for Future Power. There should be a deficit. There should be demand for it. Power plants should be installed. So I did it thinking it was safe that shares are already available at PE of five, six or seven. So you will take the child's life now, as I said, what is there to lose in this, if it is there then it is there, then we are doing business.
Then there is business. So another thing earlier was Indian Growth Story Intact. Everyone thought it was a growth story. Third largest economy. This is a very good consumption trend story of India. That's why money was being deposited continuously. SIPS floss was also coming. New demat accounts were also being opened.
As a recession hit, the number of demat accounts decreased. SIP cancellations started. Those hopes also started to shatter whether we would become the third economy or not. But is all this situation happening only because of the ups and downs or is it actually a part of your journey? This will keep coming and going.
I have seen this since I was in the stock market. One should not read too much into this either. So people say that SIPs have stopped. This is how much it has become. all this rubbish. There is nothing special. That got closed, this happened. There will be many ships which have opened ship accounts.
Once I deposited ₹500, I did not open it later. Didn't put it in later. There will be crores of such accounts in it, which Ashish ji just told that brother there are 20 crore accounts but only 11 crore are unique accounts or 11 crore. So these keep moving inside it. What can you infer from that about the stock market ?
You tell me why so many SIPs have been stopped. Hey, I must have opened four accounts. I am doing it in one account. I closed three accounts and opened a ship account by depositing ₹250. What are you doing, if his account is closed then it is a good thing. If it is closed then it is good. If there is some froth coming down.
People's sentiments are coming back above ground. So I and I have always seen it like this from the beginning. When the market is bullish, then understand that the number of investors is 1 crore. For example, if there is a bullish market, a red hot bullish market will come, that number of 1 crore will become 2 crore.
And when that crisis comes back in the market, those two crores will become one and a quarter crores, but those old ones of one crore, that one and a quarter crores, like higher top, higher bottom is formed in the stock market, in technical terms, the same thing happens here also, right now there are 11 crore investment accounts, whatever investor participation is there in SIP, there are 11 crore unique accounts, even if one and a half crores get closed, so what, it will come back after a few days, I do not read much into it, Indian market is very deeply underrepresented.
Ashish sir has just said something a little while ago. Approximately 4 crore insurance, 18 crore demat accounts, all these have also increased rapidly after the Covid of 2020. So looking at the penetration of Indian market, the first thing is how much growth are you expecting from here. Second, you know, a lot of investors listen to you , let's see here.
Otherwise, what message will you give in this term oil situation? Look, what I feel is that a dramatic structural change has taken place in India, which we used to talk about earlier, say 2030 years ago, India used to be centered around food, clothing and shelter. If one gets enough of it, then one would have found God.
This was the thought in everyone's mind. After that, understand that a scenario changed and after 1995, data was added to food, clothing and shelter. A person cannot live without data. You can eat less bread, you can diet, you can wear less clothes. You need data. From good morning in the morning to good night kiss at night, your data keeps running.
So, this has just been added to data. A fifth has been added to it, that is SIP. So, I feel that there has been a revolution in food, clothing and shelter. And the young investors who have come, you see, in India, if my figures may be wrong, there are probably 80 crore bank accounts. Unique bank accounts are 80 crore, leaving aside UNIP.
And right now we are only at 11 crore, so I feel that there may be time. A time will come when there will be as many demat accounts as you have bank accounts or trading accounts for that many shares, whether they are opened for ships, this cult has started for investors in the share market, it may take time and there will be shocks in between, you will have to face these shocks, the shocks make you fitter, you get purified in them, just like you take a dip in the Ganga, after that you say that you get purified, similarly, considering the warehouse market as Ganga, you get purified by taking a dip, you prepare for the next one, you get a lot of knowledge within you.
Salvation comes within you. So Sir, ever since I have been listening to you from ages, you have always been bullish about the Indian market, about the Indian growth story, stock specific, sector specific. If Vijay Kedia ji is afraid of something in terms of market, then what would that thing be? No, look, I am not afraid of the market.
As long as there is growth in the Indian economy, one thing is deeply ingrained in my mind. One thing has been in my mind for many years, maybe 15 years or 20 years. As long as there is productivity growth and population growth in any country, its upswing remains its beginning. He keeps touching whatever height he has.
So there is productivity growth within India also. Leaving aside one or two years in between, I had read somewhere that after 1990, there was no year in which India did not grow by 5 percent. Ok? We no longer had 5% growth. I do n't know about the two-three Covids in between, and if we leave aside one or two years, India has grown at least 5% continuously and our population growth also remains 1.5%.
Right now the population growth has probably decreased to 75 or 1%. So as long as this population growth and productivity growth continues, you should not think of recession in India. So, I am not afraid of the stock market and this is another trending topic right now, Mr. Trump, Trump tariff is now the new, you know, trending topic.
So how big a concern is the market or are you individually seeing that yes, this will remain a concern and perhaps will continue to haunt the Indian market in the times to come. This is the second phase of Trump sir who will be there now. No, he will keep doing it. He has a habit of talking all the time.
He will say something or the other everyday and then he will change it the next day. Even today I read a few days ago, what terrificial imposition they had imposed on Mexico or Canada, maybe they changed it, maybe now whether they read it wrong or right, I don't know, so he also doesn't know what he is going to do.
He himself did not understand the thing which he did not even understand. If I am not able to understand your nature, then what is the need for me to understand your nature. If I have to make a new investment, then I have to do it after understanding that if something crazy happens in it, then how much loss can I suffer in it.
You should also add one point to this, which is what we call negative rate flag, add a point on this that by doing this tomorrow ultimately I feel that they themselves are going to harm their country and the way they talk about tariff, inflation is already high there. Now it has been controlled a little bit in the last one year.
He will already be shot up. So I don't know about him. If you want to see the spectacle of burning the house then it is a different matter. Many people also watch the spectacle of their house burning. So I have no view on that. I don't understand him. But I am not afraid of this. So Sir Lastly, because every time there was a bull market, you sang a lot of songs.
Sang very good songs with great speed. At this time, the You Know Fear of the You Know people is at its peak and their courage is at its bottom. So one more song is made. Any latest? No, latest, not just one song, the voice is not coming out at all these days. So these days I can't even speak. Brother, I don't know about that song, but I had written a song earlier in this market situation, some money started coming in, I started feeling like I had become a guru, confidence came, I placed a big bet, lost so much money, it was fun [laughs] I kept taking it up, kept selling it down, I didn't understand anything, it was fun, I took knowledge from my uncle's driver, neither studied nor did I go to college, listened to people, chose penny stocks, lost so much money, it was fun, okay.
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