저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장은 2025년 4월 저점 이후 회복했으나 지수 외 개별주 참여는 아직 약하며, 선택적·혼합 장세가 이어질 것이라는 견해. 레버리지(MTF·신용) 투자는 파멸 지표로 경고. 향후 6~9개월 혼합 장세를 예상하고, 장기(4년 이상) 관점에서 관광·병원(헬스케어)·일부 공기업 은행 섹터에 관심을 표명.
다듬은 글
Sir, you are 100% invested for the last 30 years. Sometimes I lost my sleep thinking that if everything sinks, then saying this you asked a very good question sir, saying this I think like during the time of Covid, everything sinks and the crisis of Lehman Brothers of 2008 was also such a crisis, in that too the whole world was ending, it was a situation like a catastrophe and the same situation happened in Covid at that time that everything was over, but the thing that I told you is that you reached the no gravity zone, I started implementing it from 20034 and in that whenever there was a bull market in the stock market, I used to sell some shares and invest them in some other asset class which gives me fixed income, even today I do the same work, so I was not dependent on the income of the stock market, so I saw the crisis of lime and business, the shares fell by 65% at that time.
The shares had gone up to 65, you should understand that, that was my biggest crush in recent times, I saw that the same situation happened in Covid also, 12% value of the share was wiped out, your ₹100 was reduced to only ₹25, so I thought that it is okay, I am done, now it comes to that sir, I do not own anything, whatever I have is all yours, why should I hand it over to you, what is the attachment, really this thought comes to my mind, it is the money of the share market, once it is gone in the share market, it is gone, my lifestyle is not changing, and never in my life have I made my lifestyle more than my expenses, sir.
For example, if I have an income of ₹1 lakh per month, then my expenses will be Rs 500. If the income is Rs 10 lakh, even if the standard increases, if the fixed income is Rs 10 lakh, then my expenses will be Rs 2 lakh to Rs 5 lakh. I have always maintained this ratio, sir, and God also helped me in maintaining the same mindset and understanding the same thing.
Having said this, I am never afraid of crisis. This 16400 times increase in my shares which you are talking about. It must have happened 10 times that it fell 50 taka from its top , 60 taka, 70 taka. So you think, if at that time my portfolio, for example, would be worth Rs 50-100 crores and Rs 100 crore-25 crores, then you think, Rs 75 crores are wiped out, how can you bear this thing ?
How can you laugh after seeing this? So I felt that it is not mine. Your demat statement belongs to the market. Your bank statement belongs to you. Whatever has increased is also not mine. So even when a share falls or rises, I do not think that this money is mine. I will not spend a single penny considering my demat statement.
If you understand my demat statement, it is of Rs 100 crore. For example, I will not spend even ₹1 lakh or ₹10,000 on its base. I feel that I have no right over that money. When I get money in the bank after selling the shares, I will say that now I will spend ₹100 from this. The profit that I booked, the profit that I booked, now I can spend some money from it, now you are in 2025, your portfolio has also fallen less, has weakened to around 500-600 crores, so this is a cycle or this is a blockage, now from here the momentum will return again, it is a cycle, means this is a system of rise and fall, how are you looking at the market from here, from here it seems to me that see, this market has seen such a huge boom in the last three-four years, 2021-22-23-24, the boom that happened after Covid, its adjustment is happening within the market.
Good. So after this surge, the market made a big bottom in April 2025. Since then the market has really come back. But this is the story of the index of the index. This year is tough for everyone, be it individual shares. The individual shares index right now, you understand, the index is still 57% below its all-time high.
But you will find individual stocks which are down by 30%, 40%, 50%. But you will also find hundreds of such stocks which had made the index high in October-September 2000 or October 24. Today, after 1 year, we will find such shares in 25 which are 30%, 40%, 50% higher than that high. It is in a new mood.
You will get shares like this also. You will get 100-200 shares like this here also. So this market is a market of mixed trends. This is a one-sided market. That time is over. Now it has become a mix and match market. It became a selective market. I think we should go like this again in the next one year or for 9 months, say six to nine months.
Understand that even if the index increases and for whatever reason if the index increases but the participation of individual shares in the market will still take time, then the mixed market will run, so earning money [nasal sound] was as easy as it was in the last 4 years, now it will be a little tough, now the game has become a bit of thinking and understanding, Sir, this is not the market where the donkey and the horse were equal, it is not that kind of rally, it is not a rally, now there is a big dilemma here that the new generation of today has come after seeing the rally of 2021-22.
A large generation came after seeing the 2021-22 rally in forwards and trading in India. Then people started investing with the help of online trading apps. The one that selects the shares through artificial intelligence and goes through algorithmic training and trades through bots which we can see.
You are a much more settled, clear-headed, and comfortable investor than them, with no hurry to go to each level. What has confused today's investors ? Either he is troubled by the flood of information or he is unable to understand the nature of the market that it is not made for the hasty. Maybe it is like this, sir, you should see that if you want to become a chartered accountant, you spend 5 years.
Ok? Many types of exams are given. After that you do some articleship and after that you go somewhere and do a job or something. Then you will go and do your practice or whatever you do. So this means this is a 5 year game. Yes. Even if you want to become a lawyer or do LLB, it will still be a four-year game.
Even if you want to become a doctor, it is a four-year game. You study and become an MBBS. Then after that assist someone. After that, slowly practice again. Ask people what do you do to enter the stock market ? What studies do you do? Which articleship are you doing? Under whom did you learn knowledge?
How many books have you read? 90 out of 100 of us will tell you that we did nothing. Yes, you are doing all this by sitting in the classroom, sitting in the library, sitting in your bedroom, playing sports, sitting there and checking tickets. Hm, are we okay? So let us understand that such people can never be successful in the stock market.
It will take time. I also started doing this but I struggled for 10 years. ₹ 10,000 Even after 10 years I could not save even ₹10,000. So if you have that much time, then should you go out and come back or should you study first? First you do the course. Understand people, listen to people talk about people, listen to interviews, learn how people know you.
There must be some way. This is not pudding, sir. It is not so easy that any person can come here without any education or anything. This is called gambling. So, in this sense, I compare it to the stock market, that those who come here without any method, without any policy, without any scriptures, without any understanding, if those people come here, then they are gambling.
So if you are gambling, you will get gambling results. What is the result of gambling? House Always Wins. The one who is gambling will always win. Your boat is about to sink. So the broker will earn here. Whatever transaction cost you are paying, whatever charges you are paying, he will earn. They get it even in victory.
You get it even in defeat. Nothing is going to come your way ultimately. So what is it that people have no interest in learning? People have to earn money as soon as they come. And the most important thing is to earn money immediately. The biggest problem in the stock market is that you have to earn money quickly.
This is the biggest disease here. So these people do not follow all the protocols or methods. So how do you make money here? So this is the problem within people. One more question related to this. Then we come to the next question. Leverage bets are growing rapidly in the Indian market. Look at the MTF of traders and it is happening elsewhere in the world too.
How does an experienced investor like you take it upon himself to take a loan and invest in the stock market? People are taking personal loans. Taking money on credit card and investing it in the stock market. The MTF ah margin trading that is happening through brokerage is definitely happening. How do you see it?
No, this is an indicator of destruction, it is nothing else, it is written on the wall that those who are doing such work are going to drown, they must have died already, they must not be alive till now, in the last 2000 which is a year and [nasal voice] the kind of mess that has happened here, those poor people must have died, there is data of CB also in it, nine out of 10 people are losing and 76000 crores or 1 lakh crores, how much SEBI has told that people have lost within a year or whatever data has come, I do not remember, it is of these people, whatever you are doing by taking EMI, that is, credit card, you are speculating in shares, then that ship is going to sink.
You cannot avoid this. Understand that this principle is also a method. But you know sir, there is no heaven without death. Yes, no matter how much you teach them, they are not going to learn. If they learn from these things, they will do it once, twice, fall, study a little and then after that they will gain knowledge.
Then they will come on the right track. Sir, we are sitting here on Diwali. According to you, the three sectors will fluctuate like this for 9 months, sometimes for 8-9 months. Three sectors that are swaying in the air, which you think investors should focus on by next Diwali. So what do I think is just this small change that should not be kept in mind for the next Diwali.
Yes. 5 years should be taken into account. Ok. If you ever want to invest in the stock market, you should not keep a horizon less than four years in mind. Sometimes no market performs at all throughout the year. That company has potential, that sector has potential, the economy has potential. But it does not perform.
So by saying this, that one year becomes very short and one should keep a little longer view and I and it is still the case that in this market as I said, it is possible that there may not be much change in the market for one year. But still, as I told you, you will find hundreds of such shares which reached all-time high even after all-time high.
You are going to get many such opportunities in the market. So I like two or three sectors. Firstly, I like the tourism sector. I always say that India is such a country where you can see all the tourism things which we see abroad. Be it beaches or deserts or greenery or temples or architecture or safari or religious tourism or whatever.
Everything from all over India is stored here. It is here. We do not need to go outside India. There is a problem. There is no infrastructure here, there are no good hotels, there is no connectivity, the stations are not good and there are no airport facilities for planes and there is no hygiene and there is no marketing.
People do n't make a big deal and say, look, this is what we have. Otherwise, you should look at such temples and such architecture. Look at the Konark temple, when the sunlight falls, it reaches there and falls right on the idol of the God. There was not so much technology at that time. Still, who has made what?
There will be hundreds of such things here, sir. But they don't market to us. There is no awareness among the people. Right now it seems that the government is thinking that this should be promoted. So I like tourism related shares. Airlines shares are also included in it. Hotels also come. Hotels also come.
Ticket booking etc. which is done online also gets shares. But all these shares are expensive. This is not cheap. So this should be kept in mind. Sometimes these may decline. Sometimes you accept it. One can concentrate on tourism. Secondly, I like the hospital industry. After Covid, an awareness has arisen among the people that yes brother, the first happiness is being healthy and the second happiness is love in the home.
Now people have understood. So now everyone pays attention to health and when the company or the country makes any progress, then more people pay attention to health care that yes brother, it is okay, you still have to live your life, live it comfortably. Covid has taught everyone that yes brother, how many days do you have to live, live comfortably.
What is the use of studying in bed ? If you die, die actively, that is the best death. There is a feeling among the people, so as they are telling me and in India, the way things are happening, there is going to be a shortage of beds in the future as well. There is going to be a shortage of doctors.
There is going to be a shortage of nurses. So this sector is also coming to me for 10-15 years, I am also facing a long sector or aging of the hospital. So the population is also aging, so I like this and I like some public sector banks. In the public sector, PSUS banks, which are called PSBs, seem very cheap to me.
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