저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 금융 시스템을 바꿀 분산형 통화 가능성이 있어 투자 가치가 있다는 주장. 버핏의 비트코인 비판에 대한 반박: 버핏이 기술 흐름을 놓친 것은 사실이지만 그의 성공은 존중받아야 하며, 투자 수익 목적과 사회적 변화 목적을 구분해 접근해야 한다는 입장. 비트코인의 사회적 의의: 분산형 보안 통화는 자산과 스마트 계약, 복식부기가 결합된 구조로 금융 권력을 분산시키고, 송금 수수료 등 기존 중개 비용을 줄일 수 있다고 주장. 소외 계층이 자본 접근성과 거래 비용 측면에서 이익을 얻는다고 봄. 비즈니스 측면: 카드 수수료 절감(연간 약 2,500억 달러 언급)과 사기 방지 효과로 소매업체가 결국 암호화폐를 도입할 것이라 전망. 규제·제도: 미국 정부(IRS)의 가이드라인 이후 자산과 같이 회계 처리되면서도 통화처럼 대체 가능한 상품이 등장할 것으로 예상. 성장 지표: 비트코인 개발자 생태계와 플랫폼 API 사용량이 페이스북 초기 성장 패턴과 유사하다고 평가. 페이스북 연계 제안: 페이스북이 보안 지갑을 출시하고 신원 확인 체계를 결합하면 비트코인에 큰 전환점이 될 것이라 제안. 저커버그의 입장은 단기 계획이 없을 것이라 추측. 구체적 가격 목표나 1~3개월 방향 예측은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Marc Andreessen spoke here yesterday and he had a great quote he was addressing Warren Buffett's a criticism of Bitcoin as a mirage and he said something like well my handwriting innocent isn't clear enough to make out what exactly said you guys probably know but it was something akin to comparing him to other old white men who don't understand new technology I wonder what you thought of Warren statement and and and you know frankly like can you do any better than mark on this yeah no I mean I think he said that's we got old white men are the best right we got Buffett on one side we got Perkins on the other they're both kind of good at something but they're both kind of crazy and other okay I mean like I think he's probably generally true look the reality is you think Warren is generally right no I think I think Marx right like okay Morgan but but as a general statement like the the general statement which is true is that we're we all tend to be dismissive or negative of things we don't fundamentally understand and I think it's reasonable for a guy who's made fifty sixty billion dollars by owning things like coca-cola and Gillette to not understand Bitcoin and forget like the last 13 years of tech as well which he's also completely ignored but he's allowed to do that you know and he's very successful in his own right just like I don't know why I would buy coca-cola or Gillette it just makes no sense to me sure but he's oh I'm just his crazy sister but he has a record of being a pretty savvy you know and now analyze her of financial instruments I would give him a little more credit than that no no my point is there there are lots of ways to make money and this is actually a really good point so we have to be respectful of many ways of making money if making money is the goal I've said that you know for me again this platform I want to use as a way to drive change in areas that I think are fundamentally broken and money is my tool for change so money is a necessary evil so when I think about doing things I have to think about it from abroad investing with mindset of can i generate returns because if I do I can take this money and do something really awesome with it I can fund Alzheimer's research I can do something over here in education whatever so you know as an example like he can go and he can basically own the great CPG names and other things and make money for his investors that's great but I think Marc Andreessen can go and invest in oculus rift inbox and make money and so can i and I think that's all fine so how does owning Bitcoin affect change I think it's progressing a set of financial changes that fundamentally empower a distributed class and disadvantages entrenched interests and from that perspective I think we should absolutely want that type of thing to win and so when when I specifically buy Bitcoin what I'm thinking to myself is I'm using my own personal capital to hopefully prop up and support the emergence of something that would rip apart the existing financial system and if it does god bless it and what will happen and what will happen is individuals who are on the right side of history on the right side of justice will benefit individuals will be able to get access to capital easier individuals will be able to transact cheaper individuals will not get cheated simple example you know you've talked about for example like remittance as being a big business for those of us who are not white and not born here who send money back to a third world country you will know that there will there are thugs that stand outside these money depots and will basically charge you like a cover charge to get into the bloody place to get your cash and so when I send a hundred dollars back to Sri Lanka you know my uncle or my cousin may only get $70 because he has to give five or ten just to get through the front door but that's right so like there's all of these things that are just so good and will change constructively if we have a fundamentally distributed secure currency and it starts with property and property plus smart contracts and triple entry accounting equal a currency so we should stop getting caught up in all the semantics and celebrate the fact that the US government now acknowledges what it is that you all care about hugely important by the way the other thing is eventually these retailers will want to do it because you know I mean the ability to eliminate credit card fees one of his Goldman's thing was two hundred fifty billion dollars a year and then the ability on the behalf of a consumer prevent fraud those are hugely positive aspects of adopting some kind of a virtual cryptocurrency and so it'll tip you know like I mean and you know Basel is probably better than any of us in this room this is a guy that's like I mean if you want to kind of like scorch the earth and like you know basically like take every single ounce of profit and like you know pass it back to the consumer this is the most obvious way to do it over and above you know vertically integrating and all the other things that he's now already naturally doing and yet they're not going to do anything that will confuse their customers so they're gonna have to wait until people are comfortable with it yeah but now I think when you have like I said with IRS guidance someone is going to develop a very clever product that basically allows you to use Bitcoin effectively like a currency with all of the mechanisms that allow it them to be accounted for properly like a like a property but is fundamentally then fungible like a currency and I think that's quite straightforward now other growth patterns that you saw at Facebook that are being replicated here with Bitcoin yeah absolutely you know one of the projects that I worked on very early on was our platform and you know we had a way of like looking at our platform API usage to kind of think about what was happening in the ecosystem as a corollary to what would happen with user growth and we've done applied and you know we've been doing a bunch of that same analysis here and we see a lot of very similar patterns and I think that's really constructive so you know when you look at sort of just like like you know Bitcoin and sort of like it's distributed use it's really impressive the amount of people that are now using it and using it like meaning like like like developers writing to it and using the and I think that's this is a really big deal you worked with Mark Zuckerberg for many years you're still friendly with them what does he think of Bitcoin make you think it's cool I don't think they're gonna do anything in the near term I'm speculating but here's a great thing that would be awesome is if Facebook figured out how to either partner or launch a secure wallet and then how to basically apply their identity on top of it to create a white space within the block chain so that transaction buying between people who are willing to be named has some mechanism to basically like have an easier way of doing things acknowledged by governments and tax authorities etc that would be a game-changer for Bitcoin overnight I assume you've conveyed that to your former colleagues I think it's a really good idea you
Comments 0