저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 인플레이션·달러 가치 하락 우려 속에서 금과 비트코인이 보유 가치가 있는 자산이라는 주장을 펼치며, 금은 소량(5% 이내) 전술적 포지션으로, 가격 결정력이 강한 주식은 장기 보유 대상으로 제시한다. [거시 배경] 연준이 제로금리에서 4~5% 수준으로 금리를 올리려 했으나 무역전쟁 우려로 금리 인하 가능성을 언급했고, 이는 경기침체 시 금리 인하 여력이 없어지는 문제로 연결된다. [부채와 달러] 기업·소비자·학자금 부채가 사상 최고 수준이며, Ray Dalio는 향후 수년 내 미국 달러가 최대 30% 가치 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 연준이 시중에 돈을 풀 수밖에 없다는 것이 진행자의 논리다. [금] 금은 달러 강세 시 약세, 달러 약세 시 강세 경향이 있으며, 2008년 금융위기 후 가격이 급등했다가 되돌림. 진행자는 금이 영구적으로 초과수익을 낼 것이라 보지 않고 인플레이션 타이밍 플레이로 본다. 소량 보유 중이며 5% 초과 금지. [비트코인] 법정통화로서는 변동성 때문에 부적합하지만, 디지털 금(가치저장 수단)으로서 헤지펀드 유입이 늘면서 중요성이 커질 것으로 봤다. [주식·원자재] 가격 결정력이 강한 기업(코카콜라, 펩시, 스타벅스 등 필수소비재)은 인플레이션 환경에서 배당과 현금흐름을 방어할 수 있다. 정유사 등 석유 기업도 배당과 인플레이션 헤지 관점에서 검토 대상으로 언급했으나, 장기적으로 석유 수요는 감소할 것으로 봤다. [리스크] 금은 현금흐름이 없어 가격이 전적으로 수요·심리에 의존하며, 과거 역사상 금이 주식시장을 지속적으로 상회하지 못했다는 점을 진행자가 인정. 개인 상황에 따라 윤리적 이유로 특정 주식을 배제할 수 있다고 언급. [출연자 전망] 진행자 개인 견해로는 인플레이션 환경 가능성을 높게 보며, 장기적으로는 가격 결정력 있는 주식을 더 선호한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
what's going on guys welcome back and in this video I'm gonna be talking about gold Bitcoin and other stores of value and why those may or may not be a good asset class to be in for the next ten years a lot of this data is going to be coming off of the Federal Reserve what Ray Dalio has recently said and then also one of the Intel of the investors podcasts interviews that they just had recently where they really analyzed gold and other stories of value in the current economic environment so if you guys are interested in ever figuring out you know what is the data that you need to be looking at to figure out if you want to say be exposed to gold Bitcoin or other stores of value in your portfolio make sure to stick around hit that like button hit the subscribe button and without further ado let's get in the video so starting things off with gold ray Dalia came out recently with an article talking about how gold during the next major paramount shift that the economy is going to be going through gold is going to be one of the asset classes that drastically outperforms now the reason for this is that you have a very unique Federal Reserve type of situation currently so if you've been looking at the Fed over the past few months if you notice that the Fed has been slowly trying to increase interest rates I guess not really that slowly but in the grand scheme of things they're trying to take our interest rates from what we're zero and bring them back up to say about a four and a half to a five that is generally what the Federal Reserve in the past has tried to focus at they want interest rates you know between four and five percent that seems to be standard if you look at any economic textbook and they want inflation to be at above a two percent a two percent to a little bit above a two percent roughly in the past we're just getting out of near zero interest rates our inflation rate is I believe around a 1.6 or a 1.8 so none of these markers are really where the Fed wants it to be while at the same time we are at you know hitting all-time highs in the stock market we are at you know say max employment because we are below the standard goal for unemployment rate in the United States and so you'd think that on surface level that we have an extremely strong economy however once the Federal Reserve started to slowly increase rates and once the China trade war started to really pick up again the market went into a tizzy in the market you know declined multiple times over 10 percent and everybody was essentially blaming the Fed because like okay we yeah things were going great but now that we have a possible trade war issue you know companies are less profitable and you know you're starting to increase the amount of money it costs us to take out more debt to expand you know what's going on you want to blow up the economy so recently the chairman of the Fed Jay Powell started to talk about the ability that they might introduce of actually lowering interest rates in the near future if the market wasn't strong enough they didn't feel that the market was yeah if they view the market was too weak to really go through in increasing rates and also the trade war they were gonna start releasing the pressure on the interest rate hikes in order to really stimulate the economy again now when you look at that that is a big red flag because when you think about it you want interest rates to be going up when times are going good now obviously depending on the way you look at this times aren't going great but times are definitely not bad in the overall economy so you would generally not want to have our interest rates ticking around say a 0% like you know 3 3 to 0% you don't really want the interest rates there because then if we had a recession there's you know lever that the Fed can pull like they say did in the great financial crisis to you know drop rates down to zero to really stimulate spending and push out more money and really stimulate economic growth again so if we're in the environment where that lever is no longer going to be an option the Fed is actually going to be starting to lower interest rates in the meantime because the market is essentially demanding it and they say if you don't give us this we're going to for a recession because people are going to be pulling their money out you know that's a really interesting spot for the Fed to be in so the really only other option the Fed has you know as a safety mechanism to you know rejuvenate the economy if needed in the future is going to be to pump money into the system now the reason why they would pump money into the system is because when you look at the debt levels across the United States across and consumers across businesses and across college students they're all that record highs and they're all you know rapidly increasing our growth at this point in time that was starting to tip the scale and that it is no longer really profitable to you know take on a lot of debt and really be able to service that that while also being able to expand the business let's say in terms of a company you know say towards though when you're getting out of a recession a lot of companies that took on debt saw explosive returns because debt was essentially free because the interest rate was near zero and you know so like all you have to do you could take out two billion dollars worth of debt as long as you could make say a one percent return on your debt you know they say if you can put a billion dollars into something and get a one percent return as if you will be making a massive amount of money and companies just get doing it they kept doing it they kept doing it and now when you look across the SMP the majority of companies are extremely debt burden especially when you look at like those really old companies like say the consumer staples and everything that seems more of a safe company those companies over the past ten years have been ballooning with debt in order to stimulate more growth in order to drive their share price up for their shareholders and that's something you can't directly blame companies for doing but that's something that probably shouldn't have been their option you know you don't really want a company just because money is free they take out a lot of debt and then they keep riding that up all the way until they realize that they are no longer getting a return on that so if interest rates go up companies can no longer take out a billion dollars and then immediately be able to you know net some profit off of it now it's getting the point where they're taking on a billion dollars it's that break-even and we're at the top part of an economic cycle so if the economic cycle starts to revert and that debt burden maintains the same and our dartle dollar remains the same those companies will all start to implode because their debt payments are going to just eat away at all of their money until they essentially either go bankrupt or drastically downsize so with the Fed possibly you know bringing seeing that issue and possibly wanting to avoid that issue they're going to have to bring in a large amount of US dollars into the market in order to alleviate that debt burden so rate daily was actually talked about you know seeing a devaluing of the US currency of up to thirty percent in the next couple of years so what that would mean is that you know there's an extra 30 percent of US dollars floating around and now people are able to you know use that extra cash that's in the system to pay off their debts that you know essentially have weaker buying power and then still buy the things that they want so that way you kind of hit a point where okay we can still grow as long as we devalue our currency and so that's going to allow one consumer spending to increase and then to also the debt burden to decrease so essentially that's like the only way that the Federal Reserve can really keep a on the economy and not have a derail and hit a recession is if they start to introduce more money into the system so if this happens anything that is tied to the US dollar is going to have a massive shift in price so that's why Ray Dalio and then a lot of other hedge funds are talking about why bitcoin and gold could be really three outperforming assets you want to be in now obviously when you take a look at this gold bitcoin and other things like that don't have any value to them well if they don't have any intrinsic value to them they have a speculative premium that people are willing to pay it's tied to saying Gold's case if you look at how gold fluctuates with the US dollar generally as the gold as the dollar gets stronger gold prices you know flatten out and they decrease and then the inverse is also true Bitcoin not to the same degree just because of how volatile Bitcoin is but once Bitcoin becomes more and more you know the norm say in that has a lot more liquidity into it say like with the whole hedge fund market seeming to pump a lot of money in a Bitcoin that trend in my opinion is more likely going to be the same type of trend you know people have always referred to Bitcoin as digital gold and I do think that that is really direction bitcoins going into I don't see Bitcoin becoming a major currency just because it's it is a currency but it's not a great currency when you think about you know the volatility in it but in terms of being a store of value I do think that that is where everybody's gonna be looking towards so when you look at major commodities like this and you are looking for a place that ok I want to park my money but right now if I park my money in a savings account my money is going to get eaten by inflation because if inflation say rises and the US dollar you know it appreciates 30% you essentially will have your money in your savings account and then by the time that we're done pumping more money in the economy you lose 30% buying power on all the stuff that you've had in your bank account and that's something not anybody wants to do the reason you're saving that money is that way you can use it for an emergency but if your dollar is almost getting cut in half while sitting in a bank when you're only yielding a say one to two percent interest rate on it it's not really a good environment for people that are trying to save so Reed Ali was talking about how gold is something that you would want to have an exposure to in your portfolio because as the dollar starts to decrease some value your gold in retrospect will start to increase in value then you could possibly sell it and then buy other assets you think are going to be going on sale now buying any of these things are you're more or less speculations based off of what type of environment you expect us to be going into say over the next say five 10 years in my opinion I do think like so you guys know and in my channels portfolio and there's made a video about it I'll link it to it here that I do have a small very small position in gold with gold I never want to have more than say 5% of my portfolio in gold that's because gold is an active trading environment gold is something that you essentially assign in a percentage in your portfolio and you're gonna be buying and selling it accordingly whenever it goes above or goes below that you know designated value because there's really no cash flow you're receiving from gold it's just how much are people willing to pay for gold today and then how much are people willing to pay for gold tomorrow and based off the economic environment you're in that number is going to widely vary so I do think that in terms of an inflation hedge gold is one of the better options as we can see here during the chart of like say when we went through our last recession gold did get a lot of money pumped into it just because as the dollar started to devalue when they started to print a lot of money to really bail everybody out of the major housing bubble gold prices bloomed but then they quickly reverted once the economy started to get back on its way so it's definitely not going to be one of those things that gold is going to in my opinion that gold is going to drastically uh perform for perpetuity I think that it's essentially a timing play and I know a lot of people don't like trying to time the economy but it's a timing play that if you think we're due for say inflation gold gold Bitcoin and other commodities like that are going to be the major asset play you want to be in so that way you can essentially use that as your bank instead as their price increases prices across the board for other things tides of the dollar are going to decrease and you can use that money and pump it into all that and buy a lot more of an asset you know say portfolio with you know say increased money you get a return essentially on your cash to then go buy other things with you don't want to just say own the economy own the commodity and then not sell the commodity generally when commodities start to increase you then want to sell them because there's gonna be no cashflow again and you're gonna want to buy them when asset prices get devalued so do I think that this is something that belongs in your portfolio well obviously I'm not a financial advisor so I don't know I don't know any of your portfolios but I will say if you do believe that we are heading for a say inflationary environment gold is one of the asset classes that you might want to consider looking into now you can also take if you have a longer term timeframe approach in my opinion I actually prefer more you know pricing power strong stocks so for example sin stocks sin stocks are one of the best things to do in terms of inflationary environments than other stocks in the market in my opinion that's largely due to the fact that they have as much pricing power as they want on their product certain products you know if inflation hits and it's a 30% inflation out not a lot of people have the ability to just you know increase you know prices on the goods from say $100 $230 overnight and then essentially make the same amount of money as they did when you have ass in stock and you have people that are only buying your particular product they are in love with that particular product you have a lot more pricing power my opinion the same thing with like say a coca-cola same thing with a Pepsi the same thing with a Starbucks anything that like you have strong pricing power to your consumers in a good environment in an inflationary environment they're going to have an amazing pricing power to it because to the end consumers way is they're like oh well I keep getting raises at my job you know because they're not paying attention to the inflation rate so they're just gonna be able to keep buying those those products whatever the prices so since Doc's paying a massive dividend being able to cycle in a lot more cash their dividend is going to be able to probably grow faster than the rate of inflation even in a more inflationary environment than we've seen in the past I think that those types of companies will be one yielding you cash flow the business will grow and it's also an inflation hedge so that's kind of where I would want to put more of my money personally but again you know that's up to you that's all up to the individual you know you might not want to be exposed to some stocks you might not want to be exposed to companies that have a massive amount of pricing power just because of ethical reasons and in that case you know you might turn to a Bitcoin to a etherium to gold to silver to oil anything like that I'm also starting to look at oil rigs because while I do think that oil is going to be in the decline over the long term oil companies for right now are you know where the world gets its energy they all pay a lot of dividends the larger ones do have a lot of oil reserves so that way if the dollar gets devalued essentially their inventory starts to spike in its value and then those companies will start to you know really you know appreciate and value based off that those are all kind of just different avenues I think you should be looking into if you do think we are headed for an inflationary environment and if you guys want me to do a more detailed video on what really causes an inflationary environment I will be more than happy to do that but I wanted to get this out there because so many people are talking about gold and Bitcoin and things like that so I figured I could give a little bit of light to people that don't really focus on these markets you know kind of what exactly is going on and why are people saying that gold is going to be an outperforming class when you know history has shown that gold does not help perform the stock market so that's just kind of what I wanted to do with this video hope you guys got some use out of this hopefully it was kind of entertaining for you guys hopefully you guys you know enjoyed this type of content let me know in the comment section down below and I will catch you guys in the next video peace
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