저자: MillennialInvesting · 외국인
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AMD는 매출 성장률이 업종 평균을 크게 웃돌아 성장주·스윙 관점에서 매력적이라는 결론. 실적·성장 근거: 최근 분기 매출 +34.45%, 연초 대비 +25.71%로 반도체 업종 평균(분기 약 15%, 연간 약 8%)을 압도. 2018년 흑자 전환 전망. 제품·경쟁 구도: CPU와 GPU를 모두 만드는 유일한 기업으로 인텔·엔비디아 양쪽에서 점유율을 잠식할 수 있다고 봄. 인텔과의 Hades Canyon(노트북용 모듈) 협업으로 노트북 시장 점유 확대 기대. 암호화폐 채굴 수요: Vega GPU가 이더리움 등 알고리즘에서 채굴 효율이 높아 수요 증가 가능성 언급. 인텔 보안 취약점(Meltdown): 패치로 인한 성능 저하가 서버 CPU 수요를 AMD로 옮길 수 있어 AMD에 우호적이라고 평가. 기술적 관점: 주가가 대략 10~14달러 박스권에서 반복 등락, 스윙 매매 수익 실현 경험 공유. 박스권 돌파가 장기·성장 투자자 유입의 신호가 될 것이라 봄. 리스크: 리스크 3~5(10점 척도)로 평가. 반도체 업종 과열과 조정 가능성, 엔비디아·인텔의 대응 변수, 채굴 수요 변동성 지적. 개인 의견이며 투자 자문이 아니라고 명시. 전망: 진행자는 AMD가 2018년 좋은 해를 보낼 것이라 낙관.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome back alright so this video is going to be the first installment of the new series I'm creating or I'm gonna be going through individual stocks and giving them a full breakdown in the breakdown I'm gonna be going over my overall opinion on the risk of the investment what type of investment I think the stock falls under and what direction I think the company is going in if you're new to my channel make sure to subscribe I go over investing tips stock market news and try to teach financial literacy to the average viewer alright so for the first company on my list is going to be AMD let's jump right into it now for those of you don't know anything about AMD AMD is one of the world's largest semiconductor companies and they focus on creating GPUs and CPUs for the average consumer the PC enthusiasts and for servers for large companies and for cloud-based storage facilities so looking at AMD as a company you have to kind of break it down and really see what is it doing that's any different than the rest of the semiconductor industry so if you look right now over the past quarter and year amy has kind of been destroying the average semiconductor as far as revenue growth in the last quarter of their revenue increased thirty four point four five percent and in the year-to-date they have now increased the revenue by 25 points seventy one percent now one that is a very high-growth company anything with high especially with higher double digits growth in the revenue is something that a lot of investors really want to look into and really see what's driving this company but a lot of people might throw out the kind of assumption that oh well maybe the entire industry is booming you know like in videos up almost a hundred percent in the past year Intel's up you know 30 40 percent in the past year what's going on with the semiconductor spaces is just that everybody's moving up well if you take a look at the entire market as a whole you can see that in the last quarter the average semiconductor stock only increased revenue by about 15 percent and year over year the average semiconductor stock has only increased its revenue by 8 percent and in comparison AMD is kind of decimating the average stock in this sector which in my opinion poses a me for a really good growth investment type strategy now if you want to look up here the basic investment types that I've broken down AMD and two are going to be focused around growth swing trade and a one-year short long term investment now the reason why I can assume that aim do is going to be a great growth stock is because it is extremely increased it is rapidly increasing its revenue at a much faster rate than its peers so this means that of all the semiconductor stocks in my opinion AMD is kind of trying to seize the moment and get out as much product as possible while we're in this great bull market now AMD is kind of taking a unique approach in as the fact that it is tackling both the GPU and the CPU lineup and is the only company right now that does both so if you compare it to say Intel Nvidia its biggest counterparts both of them are much bigger companies however they both only focus on one individual semiconductor so with AMD AMD has the ability to just try to let you know pick away at market share of both of these companies and it will ensure that it has revenue growth in the future so if you got a look at AMD as a double-edged sword it's going to be attacking Intel on one side and then AMD on the other side and if it has any partnerships with either one of them as it just recently got it's going to be able to partner up with one person that is bigger than it and slowly chip away from the other side now as a stock I think aim D is going to attract three different types of investors these investors are going to be growth investors swing traders and short long term investors with an average you know time horizon of about one year and you ever take a few months now in my personal opinion I think that the most effective strategy would either be the swing trading or growth investing on a B now mainly because I have personally swung trade AMD about nine times in the past year because their stock price has been extremely volatile and very cyclical it has a lot of support around you know 1024 a lot of resistance around 1410 now I and like most other investors have just kind of abused this volatility and the second I get between you know 15 and 20 percent gains I sell out of it wait for it to plummet buy back in and repeat the process and until AMD is able to break out of this pattern I don't think many long-term investors or growth investors are going to be willing to really have a large stake in the company that being said because of a lot of news that's been going around with AMD I think that a lot of growth investors and long-term investors are going to really start taking a look into the company and could force that stock to break its pattern and really allow a me to become the company that it should be on paper now I'll be honest for all of last year expecially well swing trading AMD I was overall bearish on the company I didn't think that a me really had any news that was going on for it with the exception of Verizon that I thought was really gonna have any staying power with the company taking away market share from either Nvidia or Intel I thought horizon was a great lineup but I thought that the next line up for Intel was just going to do it it always didn't put a me in its place and kind of smack it down with its superior specs thankfully frame D that did not happen with the important news that's been going around about AMD I think that these are in my opinion the most important ones first off I'm beep and 2018 is expected to become profitable for the first time ever now that is kind of outstanding Amy's been around for decades now and for it to finally have its financials and its companies set up so that way from here on out it can be just continuously be gaining profits and having all this extra money that is now going to be able to either devote towards research and development or just kind of you know expand its overall manufacturing plant and really try to take out market share I think that that allows AMD to have a lot of opportunity now in the foreseeable future another thing to keep in mind with AMD is that AMD currently makes the best GPUs for crypto mining now in my opinion from a tech standpoint and from a gaming standpoint the Vegas 54 and 64 are relatively overpriced for the performance at the given games now they were when they first came out they were going to be such better buys than the 1070 and 1062 but it was only because of the price difference and then after the first I believe the first month of release the price went through the roof it originally came out for you know five hundred dollars and now a new way I saw a couple of prices for fifteen hundred dollars for these GPUs and while a lot of GPUs right now are bit inflated because the crypto mining the the GPUs from a be in my opinion are drastically overvalued however I looked into it and I really wanted to know why and it's because crypto miners for anybody that is trying to mine you know aetherium or any aetherium based ICO which is the majority of them now because of the use of smart contracts AMD's overall architecture is much better at breaking down algorithms than Nvidia is and so if all these miners don't want to get on board on the bandwagon with all the IC OS that keep coming up and newer Kryptos they all switch to AMD because it's a much faster hash rate and it's a much more you know profitable system for mining and video still is better when people are trying to mind Bitcoin and Bitcoin based crypto currencies however with the nature of Bitcoin bitcoins been around for so long and now the longer that Bitcoin is out and the more people that try to mine it the more difficult it is to mine Bitcoin because of the way that the algorithms broken down I think a lot of the newer miners and a lot of people moving forward that really see mining as a as a possible way to make money a lot of them are going to be focusing on these IC OS and aetherium and things like that so in my opinion I believe the majority of them are going to be running full AMD systems to really utilize the unique architecture from the AMD Vega lineup now another thing to really keep in mind is mb has partnered with intel and i cannot tell you enough that I am shocked the fact that I'm saying those words I think everybody in the PC community is shocked that that ever happened and I still personally don't really believe it but you know so Amy and Intel created a memory module that utilizes a 8th gen until processor a high speed memory hub and a Vega based GPU and that is outstanding in my opinion it's nicknamed Hades Canyon and it is what is going to be going into the majority of higher-end laptops and notebooks for the rest of 2018 probably in to 2019 as well this whole module is extremely slim extremely fast and powerful and only requires minimal wattage which means that it's efficient it doesn't affect your battery life and it will provide really good graphics in comparison to the average laptop which will mean that everybody that wants to get a high-end laptop is generally going to be getting this hades canyon module now lenovo has already introduced a few laptops that are going to be utilizing this module and to me this is amazing because now it allows a me to kind of piggyback off of intel sheer dominance in the cpu space now intel has about an 84 86 market capitalization of consumer grade laptops and generally it would either be you would have aim Intel integrated graphics or you would have an NVIDIA external graphics well integrated graphics that would be in cuffs --that weren't directly for gaming but now that Intel is allowing aim B to kind of budge in on their turf that means that in token cut costs because now they don't need a force they don't need to spend a lot of time developing their integrated graphics but now they're gonna be going to AMD instead of a video for the majority of their new like sleek laptop designs and with how everybody is focusing on you know really slim lightweight and portable laptops right now in the foreseeable future and that trends been continuing I think Amy's gonna be able to take a good amount of market share away from Nvidia in the laptop space and you know it's great for AMD because now you're pretty much one of your biggest rivals your biggest rival is allowing you to directly take market share away from your other biggest rival and that just poses really well for aim it's our overall it's good for Intel but it's an overall great scenario for AMD and now the other thing that allows Amy to kind of benefit on the Intel aspect of things is meltdown so I made a video I'll link it down in the description that really goes in the nitty-gritty of what this scenario means for ambient Intel but they're just if it is that Intel has a major security flaw and the only real way to fix it is kind of with a band-aid fix and will be implemented from Apple Microsoft and Linux to kind of just have a patch and to make hackers you know take longer to hack into your system and these patches are all going to considerably bog down your performance now for the average consumer that doesn't matter but in my opinion the server CPUs that are near at max load anyways they can't handle a bog down of performance so now a lot of companies are not going to be forced to really decide do they want to you know deal with the possible security issue and with the bogging down performance or do they just want to bite the bullet and switch over to an AMD based system to avoid all these issues together and I personally think companies that you know the majority of their revenue stream is coming from these servers are going to have be forced to make that switch so really good news for AMD and really bad news for Intel in my opinion so AMD is kind of starting to gain traction and a lot of news that is really supporting that traction and both the CPU and the GPU space and in all honesty of either one of those avenues work AMD is going to gain a lot of market share and become a lot more profitable in the future and from the look of it right now both of these scenarios are likely going to happen so Amy as possible has two possible great avenues to go down that are really gonna start making and be more profitable and more appealing to the average investor now for the overall risk assessment that I give aim deep I'm gonna give me giving them about a 3 to 5 3 to 5 on my scale and that is mainly because as of right now for growth and long term investors AMD's chart pattern has been extremely volatile and it has been kind of knocking between the same range passed in 6-8 months now once it's able to break that pattern I believe that is gonna be the real signal for a lot of growth Fester's a lot of long-term investors to really you know put down a lot of money and just kind of ride out the wave but until it breaks out of that pattern I think a lot of long-term and growth investors are gonna be holding back they'll start their positions now show her but I don't think they're really gonna be finalizing their positions until it is proven that aim D yes is in a reversal and yes it's breaking out of this and it's going to be continuing to new highs in addition to that it is a tech based stock and the whole semiconductor space right now has been kind of exploding the past couple years and that does Pros some risk of any type of correction that's going on in this like I said the average the average semiconductor is only up 8% revenue for the year but the average but the industry is up between 60 and 70% so that's a bit inflated however if you look at companies like AMD that kind of shine in the semiconductor space AMD is in my opinion one of the more correctly valued semiconductors in this space so I think AMD is a little bit more resistant to any type of correction that'll be going on the space however it is something to think about when you're trying to start your own investment and finally yes aim D is finally starting to it looks like India's gonna be able to finally start taking market share away from Intel and NVIDIA however it is still fighting and Intel and NVIDIA which are kind of the semiconductor Titans and time will tell on how well it's able to do this I don't think Intel's gonna be able to react and hear me as fast as they wanted to do the ante movement mainly because of the whole meltdown issue and there you have to deal with a lot of issues as far as consumers suing them and reimbursing a lot of people and really trying to fix things on there and before they can really focus on taking before reclaiming their throne from AMD however Nvidia it is still yet to see with how they react to the the hades Kanan module with Intel and what they do for their next line of GPUs that are going to probably be better than Vega and you know the next year or so so it's really interesting to see what direction this is going to be going in and possibly Nvidia might change its architecture to be more optimal for mining but I'm not sure if that's something that a GPU company is really trying to tie themselves to and really trying to focus all of their resources on so I think things are reasonably safe for AMD moving forward but those are just kind of my reasons why I can't give it like a sure thing or obviously no investments or sure thing but overall in the tech space I think Amy's a safer bet but it's a much more volatile bet so you know take that with what you will I'm not a financial adviser obviously this is just my opinion in my you know my the brief breakdown on my due diligence and you know tell me what you think so I think aim D is kind of I think I'm the is going to have a great year in 2018 I really do let me know that in the comments do you agree do you disagree is it something you think I missed as you're ending of the stock that you want me to give a breakdown like this do you like this format you know is there anything else that you want me to include or do you think you know I don't need this you can just go and look that up on your own let me know I really enjoy giving these breakdowns especially if text stocks so you know if you guys like this just let me know leave a thumbs up and I'll see in the next video see you guys
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