저자: 미상 · 외국인
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FOMC 의사록의 경기침체 리스크 언급은 이미 시장이 알고 있던 내용이라 큰 의미가 없다고 주장. 가격행동(price action) 중심으로 매매해야 하며, SPY는 407·402 지지와 411 저항 사이에서 상·하방 시나리오를 제시. 나스닥 선물·다우·러셀2000·NVDA·TSLA·AAPL 등 개별 지지·저항 레벨 제시. 옵션 매매 비판 및 리스크 관리 강조, 유료 Discord·알림 서비스 홍보.
다듬은 글
today we had a wild intraday swing as the fomc minutes came out and talked about the risk of recession later this year is this bad news for the stock market we had no lack of excitement with the CPI data coming out this morning and we did get that beautiful Gap up above resistance at 411 and then gave it all the way back by the end of the day finishing with a bearish engulfing candle so anytime you get a bearish engulfing candle like this you instantly need to respect the fact that price action just had a sharp rejection from a critical resistance level now just a quick announcement if you are trading options and you are not profitable and you are still trading options do not forget the definition of insanity is doing the same exact thing expecting a different result there's so much hype around options trading but you have to ask yourself is it actually a profitable Venture and if it's not you need to turn away from it and start trading shares if that message helped at least one of you then it was worth it so let's quickly talk about the fomc minutes because they did drop a bomb during the meeting and they were talking about the risk of a recession later this year do not for one second think that the market was not already aware of the risk of recession later this year this is no new news for the market there is not a single big money player in this stock market who has not considered the probability of a recession later this year so it is absolutely going to be a nothing Burger we are still going to be following price action only so if you opened up a ton of short positions today because you think there's a recession coming you are going to get absolutely destroyed by the market your trade plan should not depend on a single word the FED says because they have absolutely no credibility and this is the same fed that told US inflation was transitory so what I'm trying to tell you is that everything on the chart that is already priced and is going to show in in the price action we are going to strictly follow price action and not speculate on where the market should be because we have a chart of the market and we could see where the market is currently going so if the market is going to get bearish we need to lose this support Zone at 407 and on the hourly chart that's actually closer to about 406.
you can see by these Wicks that we actually have gone and found lower support levels and double top rejection from 411 which is obviously a bearish pattern that sends us to lower prices and at least to fill the gap down here below 402. that's also where we have our support trend line so we are looking for the possibility that that could occur price action trigger will be the breakdown below the support zone so you have very well defined risk at that support and you know exactly what support has to fail to tell us we're going lower there is no guessing about it it's 100 objective and it lets the pricey action do all the Talking Now with that being said if you start shorting at support and we Bounce from 407 and then go straight up to the resistance F4 14 you're going to have a very difficult time managing risk on that position because the risk level is all the way up here at 411.
so be very disciplined with your risk management and make sure you're taking trades based on the risk reward setup and not some emotional reaction to any news or any current price action we did not lose any critical support today and we did have a very clear rejection from resistance so you're instantly getting more defensive because we just had a sharp reversal but we have no confirmation until we break the support below and yes that could happen as soon as tomorrow and then you could start shorting the market using that breakdown as risk level if you are not managing your risk because you're entering in between support and resistance You're simply just going to get whipsawed and you're going to have an absolutely terrible time trading in the market because you don't have any well-defined risk so right now with this bull Trend and yes this is still a bull Trend because we now have this 20 simple moving average Crossing back over the 50 EMA the Bulls will be looking for support levels around spy 407 404 and just below this Gap fill just below 402 that is three very well defined support levels that currently Define this bull Trend and if we break down below those that's obviously bearish it means we're likely going lower and if we're going lower we're likely going down to fill the Gap at 396 and retest the 200 daily moving average at 394.
so make sure your trade plan is prepared for the bearish scenario and the bullish scenario and the bullish scenario would be a bounce from support breaking 411 and going to test upper resistance at 414 and just below 417. both of these scenarios are perfectly viable scenarios and the current direction of the trend is still higher again the fomc minutes news over session does not change anything about the chart we still have the same risk levels and we still have to take on the same amount of risk as we were before the news dropped on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were down 0.88 today and the triple cues came right back down so going to be a retest of the daily breakout Zone right around 312.
I've drawn this retest before and now we are currently in the situation where price action is coming back down to this retest on the daily chart and from here this is going to be a great risk Ward setup with the bull Trend to buy the dip off of a very well defined support level before we possibly go fill the Gap at 322 or hit the double price Target at 327.
if you're so scared of the possibility of a recession later this year that you totally overlooked the fact that we're in a bull Trend in the big Tech sector that is the triple cues and you have a great risk board set up right here you could totally miss the boat on a very impulsive bounce if we start to bounce from this support if we break support then you're looking for The Gap field down below at 308 and this risk Zone just below 307.
again all of these are extremely well defined risk levels so you know exactly how much risk you're taking on if you're buying at these levels and you can manage a risk based on what the price action does at support if you're shorting at support you're going to have a very tough time in this market and we are currently at very strong support in the triple cue so there's just no reason trying to short at support wait until support breaks down and then you can short to lower prices on the Dow Jones we were down point zero nine percent today as the Dow Jones continues to push higher above all the moving averages as it continues to strengthen that bull Trend the longer it closes Above This breakout just below 335 so you have very well defined risk in the Dow Jones between 333 and 335 and if we break down below that we're going for The Gap flat 329.
the next upside price targets will be around 342 and 346 and we are developing a bull Trend as we continue to climb higher on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were down 0.73 today after we did get rejected from that upper Boulder ban just below the negatively sloping 50 EMA and we do have a bearish engulfing candle that did close the gap below at 175.
so without a doubt this is a very bearish daily candle but we are still above what could be supported at 173 and we need to break down below 173 to go down to fill the Gap at 172 and has critical support at 170. if we break 170 we are very likely going all the way down to about 164. so that is a very well defined risk level if we start breaking down below the 20 daily moving average at 174.
to the upside if we do start to balance we need to break this high at 178.5 and then we'll be looking for critical resistance right around 181.4 on the arcade ETF we were down 2.89 with a very sharp rejection from the 200 daily moving average of resistance just below 40 a very impulsive sell-off and very bearish engulfing candle but we are still above the support Zone at 37.
if we break down below the neckline at 37 we have a double top and if we break the neckline at 36 we have a triple top that could take us break of this resistance at 40.5 on the vix we were down 0.16 today and the vix did reject from 20 yet again so this continues to show there's just simply not a lot of fear in this market if the fear year of recession was running rampant the vix would be spiking well above 20 and into the mid-20s by now we just don't currently see that so wait for the vix to show confirmation that fear is hitting the market that's going to be that breakout above 20.
on bitcoin we're currently down 0.85 and Bitcoin is just getting way too far outside the upper bow under ban and due for a pullback and the most likely zone for the pullback will be that price Target at 29 400. you're bullish as long as you're above the breakout at 28 000 and if we break down below support down here at 27 000 then you can instantly get more bearish because we're likely coming down towards 25 000.
on Google stock we were down 0.67 today as Google is there is going to be support right around 103 to 104. below that we have stronger support down here right around 100 and if we break all of that support then we're instantly getting more bearish for a retest of the breakout at 95. I still think there's a good chance Google is climbing higher into earnings to go fill that Gap at 110 and possibly even the top of the channel at 1 15.
on Amazon on stock we were down 2.09 percent today as Amazon did get price action back down below all the moving averages and we closed right on top of this very critical support zone right around 98. if we continue to break down below 98 we're likely coming down to 94 and then 90 and Below 90 we do have a gap to fill out 86.4 we do have earnings coming up around the corner so if we do Bounce from 98 it's possible we do get an earnings run up that could take us to the gap for that 109.
on Microsoft stock we're at 0.23 today and Microsoft continues to get very close to closing the Gap at 281 which is just above the rising 20 daily moving average but so far that Gap has not yet filled that's a great risk level if you're looking to buy the dip because we do have a bull Trend and if we break down below 280 we're looking for The Gap put 276.
the upside resistance to break is 290 and then we can March higher towards the Gap flat 296. on Nvidia stock we were down 2.48 today and we did finally lose support at 267 and closed below 258. if at any point we break back above 260 67 you still need to be bullish because we are still in a bull Trend if we can quickly reclaim that support if we get rejected from 267 and break support at 258 look for the next downside Target down here at 242.
on Tesla stock we were down 3.35 today with a very bearish candle and a sharp projection from that resistance at 190 which is our 20 daily moving average and we did close down below critical support at 183 which increases the probability we're going to 173 and then 167. remember any rejection from here in a confirmation of a downtrend could take us all the way down to fill the Gap at 146.
do not get bullish until we could at least start closing back over the 20 deadly moving average which is currently at 190. on Apple stock we were down 0.44 today and apple is closing right on top of som 160. below that we retest the support trend line and close the gap at 158 so we have very critical support only two dollars apart and if we break the support Zone then we're looking for a retest of 156 which is the neckline breakout all of these levels are viable support if you are bullish on Apple and if we start bouncing from any of this support we simply need to break the resistance up here at 163 169 and the gap.171.
on the financials we were down 0.22 but still bullish as long as we're trading above 32. the Industrials are up 0.33 today reclaiming the 50 EMAs support and the longer we can hold Above This level the more likely we could build a bull Trend the healthcare sector was up point zero three percent today still struggling to break that resistance at 134 but still bullish as long as we're above 130.
the energy sector was up point zero seven percent today continuing to build the bull Trend as you can tell all these moving averages are now positively sloping so stay bullish as long as we're above the breakout 84. so jumping back over to the S P 500 without a doubt this is a very bearish looking daily candle in a sharp projection from critical resistance at 411 so you need to respect that the next breakdown for the Bears is going to be a loss of support so wait for the confirmation in the price action and do not get better while we are at support wait for support to break down and then you could use that support as a newfound resistance level and set your risk accordingly get in the habit of being a disciplined Trader and managing a risk and you are going to do very well in this market if you start getting emotional or you have a bias that you can't kick you are going to have very difficult time trading in this market because if you're letting a bias stop you from following the chart you are going to start making emotional decisions and that's where you're going to start losing your money at Shrek live email and text message and only Trace etfst triple q and a
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