저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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비트코인이 금 대비 강세 전환 조짐, 상관관계 낮아 기술혁명 자산으로 성장 여지 큼. AI·로봇·블록체인 등으로 실질 GDP 연 15% 성장 가능성 주장(IMF 3.1% 대비). 비트코인/금 비율은 역사적 고점 도달 전망. Raoul Pal은 달러 강세 지속(부채 50% 달러표시), 스테이블코인·토큰화로 달러 수요 확대 주장, 2년물 금리 약 2% 하락 장기 전망.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin could be entering one of the most explosive periods in its history with a new wave of institutional adoption, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and massive technological developments that potentially put the crypto in a whole new league. Now, Katie Wood and Raoul Pal are making some of their boldest arguments yet about where the global economy and Bitcoin might be headed.
Katie Wood says Bitcoin is starting to overtake gold, and describes it as a technological revolution, a new global financial system, and a completely new asset class that still has room to grow. She also sees that artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain, and other disruptive technologies could cause a dramatic acceleration in global economic growth.
In this video, I'll break down Katie Wood's bullish thesis on Bitcoin, her prediction of explosive global growth, and Raul Pal's vision for stablecoins, tokenized assets, and the future of the dollar. We'll look at why they believe Bitcoin can continue to rise, what could drive the next big move, and why 2026 could be a defining year for the crypto industry.
these videos are helpful to you, . So, let's begin. Here is the ratio of Bitcoin to gold. Hmm, that's, uh, promising. It looks like, uh, a turnaround is in sight. Famous last words. I don't want this, I don't want this to sound like famous last words, but it really does feel, uh, like a little breakthrough.
And you know what's interesting, and you can see it here, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is very low. Very low by historical standards. Um, and so seeing Bitcoin starting to break away from gold is very encouraging from our perspective. You know, we are big optimists about Bitcoin. This is a technological revolution.
This is, uh, um, a new global financial system. And it is the first asset of its kind in a new asset class. So we believe that thanks to these three revolutions, it still has room to grow. And if we are right about inflation, the pressure on gold should be downward. I will say that we have been carefully considering, uh, Bitcoin and gold, and the insurance policies that both of them provide, because we believe that this technological revolution will put many companies at risk.
And we believe that there will be counterparty risk if enough companies, uh, get into trouble. Interestingly, during the, um, 1800s, 200 railroad companies went bankrupt. There was too much capital chasing railroad opportunities back then. We don't think that's going to happen with artificial intelligence, because the difference between then and now is that railroads were built on the hope and prayer that a new world would develop and eventually profits would come.
Bitcoin could be nearing another major breakout, and one of the signals Katie Wood is watching closely is its performance against gold. She notes that the historical correlation between the two assets fell to unusually low levels before Bitcoin began to show signs of strength relative to gold. For Wood, this looming breakthrough is encouraging, as she remains extremely optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential.
Her argument goes far beyond Bitcoin's competition with gold for investors' capital. Wood describes Bitcoin as a technological revolution, a new global monetary system, and the first asset of its kind in a new asset class. This combination gives her reason to believe that Bitcoin still has huge room for growth as its adoption spreads.
The comparison with gold is also important because investors have traditionally turned to it when seeking protection against monetary instability, inflation, or financial turmoil . Bitcoin offers a digital alternative with a fixed supply and a network that can operate globally without relying on a central issuer.
Wood also argues that if inflation continues to slow, gold could eventually face downward pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin could benefit from growing adoption in financial markets and the broader digital economy. If Bitcoin continues to strengthen against gold, it could be another important confirmation of Wood's broader thesis that Bitcoin's greatest opportunities are yet to come.
We truly believe that there will be a lot of creative destruction in the making of this new world. Again, robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain, multi- omics—this touches every one of our sectors. And so, you know, if enough funds, like private credit, have made huge bets on SaaS. And some software companies and their stocks are making some small returns.
Salesforce.com had a very nice bounce after demonstrating how important the benefits of combining generative AI and Slack could be for this company. But, despite everything, it still has to deal with a huge database of outdated software. Not everything is so bleak in the software industry. But we are convinced that shifts will occur in every part of the economy .
And, you know, we talked about electric cars, robo-taxis, and the impact on transportation in general. We believe this is one big sector where we will see a lot of shifts. But we think it will affect every sector. So, this is the question: where in the economy does counterparty risk lie? This could benefit both Bitcoin and gold.
So we'll see. We consider Bitcoin an asset that simultaneously minimizes and maximizes risks. So, under current conditions, we believe that this ratio will continue to grow and reach historical highs. And in short , judging by the banks' credit default swaps, there is nothing to worry about yet. Katie Wood believes that the next big wave of technological development could cause huge disruptions to the global economy.
It points to artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomics as innovative platforms capable of transforming industries and creating new sources of economic growth. This process could also boost the value of Bitcoin and gold as investors face increasing counterparty risk.
Wood argues that massive investments in technology will inevitably create winners and losers, and some companies and business models will become vulnerable as new technologies spread. Her thesis on Bitcoin becomes particularly interesting because she views this asset as capable of functioning in both risk-averse and risk- averse environments.
Bitcoin could benefit from capital flowing into high-tech industries while also attracting attention as investors become concerned about financial stability. Therefore, the Bitcoin to Gold ratio is an important indicator in her predictions. Wood expects this ratio to continue to rise to historic highs as Bitcoin gains wider acceptance as a monetary asset.
Recent examples of institutional adoption lend additional weight to this thesis . Bitcoin is now part of a financial system where regulated investment products, corporate treasury strategies, and tokenized financial infrastructure are becoming increasingly common. The economic turmoil Wood describes could be another powerful catalyst for Bitcoin, especially as blockchain technology becomes more deeply integrated into global finance.
is designed to give you quick and useful advice, helping you make informed news with us. We believe that the growth rate will at least double, and we consider this to be a fairly conservative estimate, especially given the enormous progress in AI. And since five major innovation platforms are developing today.
You've heard me call them: let 's start with AI—the biggest catalyst, but also robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multiomics in sequencing, and life sciences technology in general . So, those are five innovative platforms. The Industrial Revolution was based primarily on three main platforms.
The explosive development of railways began. And then came the telephone, electricity, and internal combustion engines. So, a fivefold increase. Is it possible that we will get a fivefold increase in real GDP on a global scale? That is 15%. We believe that this is quite possible. We know that Elon Musk is starting to operate with numbers between 10 and 15%.
So anything is possible, especially with Elon Musk. And he is certainly driving this revolution in very important ways. But you can see here that the IMF expects growth at 3.1%. So, this is more than double the consensus forecast. Katie Wood's optimistic outlook extends far beyond Bitcoin itself. She argues that the world may be entering an extraordinary period of economic expansion as several large innovation platforms develop simultaneously.
Artificial intelligence takes center stage in her thesis, alongside robotics, energy storage , blockchain technology, and multiomics. Wood compares this environment to the Industrial Revolution, when railroads, electricity, telephones, and internal combustion engines transformed economic activity. Her argument is that current technological developments could trigger an even greater wave of productivity , as several breakthrough industries develop simultaneously.
She believes that global real GDP growth could potentially reach 15%, which would represent a significant increase compared to conventional forecasts. This figure is extremely ambitious, so it should be viewed as an optimistic Wood scenario, not an established economic forecast. An important connection for Bitcoin lies in blockchain technology and the broader acceleration of digital finance.
Greater economic output, the spread of technology, and increased investment in new industries can create a much broader environment for assets. Bitcoin is already benefiting from growing institutional access and an increasingly mature market infrastructure. If Wood's broader technological thesis continues to play out, Bitcoin could remain one of the assets that benefits from this huge wave of innovation.
And that brings us to an even bigger question: what happens when these technologies start to change the global monetary system itself? But before that, a few words onsidering is the ability to trade cryptocurrency with leverage on the upside or downside and make more profit if you guess the direction.
have move on to Raul Pal, whose perspective shifts the conversation from Bitcoin and gold to the future of the dollar, stablecoins, and tokenized assets. This brings us to the main point—DXY. Looking at the DXY, we are in an uptrend in the dollar. This is a world indebted in dollars, the dollar is rising.
Anyone who tells you that the dollar will soon collapse and the world order will end is either stoned or stupid . But if we move on to the daily schedule. This...Sorry, I'm forever messing with graphs. I apologize. But I don't know what I'm doing. But here we are. ABC correction, five waves down, ABC breaks lower.
And since we're breaking lower, the decline should accelerate to where I think it's going, which is somewhere around here. And this will still be part of the dollar's uptrend. But you should see the nines and thirteens piling up here, which indicates that this won't last long. So it comes back here and then we have the next phase of growth because the dollar is growing over time.
And it is growing for a very simple reason: 50% of the world's debt is denominated in dollars. The US is going to introduce stablecoins in every damn corner of the planet. And there will be even more buyers of dollars. And then they tokenize every share, and everyone will buy SpaceX. Why would you invest in a local market, say a Nigerian brewing company, which used to be great bets, instead of SpaceX?
Because it's tokenized, and you have crypto, because you have stablecoins. This is where the world is heading. Trying to remember, bonds...let's take a quick look at bonds. Let's. So, let's take a look at...Oh, by the way, I actually didn't even know that. So, two-year bonds draw two thirteens on the monthly chart, and they are also two months away from nine.
Overall, I expect a decrease of around 2%. This is my long-term view, based on the deflationary aspects of AI, robotics, and everything else. Raul Pal believes that the dollar will remain deeply rooted in the global financial system, even as it becomes increasingly digital. His argument begins with a simple reality.
A huge portion of global debt is denominated in dollars, creating a constant international demand for dollar liquidity . He believes that stablecoins can significantly increase this demand. As dollar-backed stablecoins spread across international markets, people and businesses will be able to access digital dollar.
This creates a potential bridge between the existing financial system and cryptocurrency. A bigger opportunity lies in tokenization. Pel expects stocks and other financial assets to increasingly become available as tokenized assets, allowing investors around the world to access markets through digital platforms.
He cites SpaceX as an example of the type of highly desirable asset that could attract global capital if tokenized markets became widely available. This is important for Bitcoin because every expansion of the digital financial infrastructure can attract more users, liquidity, and capital to the broader crypto ecosystem.
Stablecoins are already a major source of dollar liquidity on the network, while tokenization continues to attract the attention of large financial institutions. Pell's vision ultimately points to a world where cryptocurrency becomes deeply intertwined with global finance. As this infrastructure expands, Bitcoin could benefit from being at the center of an increasingly digital monetary system.
Katie Wood and Raoul Pal ultimately point to the same huge opportunity from two different directions. Wood sees Bitcoin emerging from a technological revolution that includes artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and advances in the life sciences. Pell sees gital thanks to stablecoins, tokenized assets, and global liquidity on the network.
Combine these forces, and the potential opportunity for Bitcoin becomes much greater. Wood's thesis is built around the idea that Bitcoin will become a new monetary system and a distinct asset class with significant room for implementation. She also expects technological advances to create huge productivity gains, potentially creating an economic environment where traditional assumptions about growth and inflation become obsolete.
Pell adds another important part. If stablecoins continue to distribute dollar liquidity around the world and financial assets become increasingly tokenized, blockchain networks could become a much larger part of everyday finance. Bitcoin could benefit from this expansion as it remains the largest and most established digital monetary asset.
There is also the possibility that technology will eventually reduce inflation. AI and robotics can increase productivity while reducing costs, potentially creating the conditions for lower interest rates and improved liquidity. The result is a powerful long-term thesis. Technological acceleration, digital dollars, tokenized markets, and Bitcoin could become interconnected parts of a single financial transformation.
If this convergence continues, Bitcoin's greatest opportunity may be yet to com. M-hm.
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