저자: TomLee·ArthurHayes·미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
9월 연준 금리인상 공포가 과장됐고 유동성 확대(재무부 바이백 증액, 실질 금리 상한 방어)로 비트코인이 상승할 것이라는 주장. 토마스 리는 9월 고용·물가 지표가 약하면 금리인상이 없어 반등 가능하다고 봄. 아서 헤이즈는 중앙은행 화폐 발행이 비트코인의 본질적 동력이라고 주장. 현물 BTC ETF에 8월 30억 달러 이상 유입, Bernstein은 2027년 중반 15만 달러 전망. 단, 변동성과 73~74k 하락 가능성은 인정.
다듬은 글
Right now, almost everyone who follows the crypto market is preparing for the same thing —a terrible September. And, apparently, they have good reasons for this. On the last Friday of August, the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, spoke at Jackson Hole with the toughest rhetoric the market has heard in months.
He stated that inflation, in his words, still has " to work." And in a matter of hours, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about one chance in three to almost two in three. Bitcoin, which just returned above $80,000 for the first time since May, immediately rolled back to $ 78,000.
So the mood heading into this month is one of fear. But the important question is whether this fear points to a chasm or the best entry opportunity of the year. Two people worth listening to right now are betting on the latter. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat and one of the most influential experts on Wall Street, said something on CNBC this week that goes against the general sentiment .
A market that prepares for bad news is the very market that can surprise with growth. And Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and one of the sharpest macroeconomic analysts in the field, continues to insist on the same opinion. The mechanism underlying all of this, which is what actually drives Bitcoin, has not changed at all .
On the contrary, he only became stronger. So in this video we're going to do three things. We'll break down what the September rate scare really means and why the " smart money" sees it as a jolt designed to knock people out of their bottom positions. We will look at the liquidity mechanism that has already been reactivated behind the scenes in the bond market over the past two weeks.
And we will explain why those who manage large capital are using this moment to build positions, instead of running away from them. And now let's begin. This is what I consider the base case scenario, as there are many conflicting factors emerging this month. For example, Joe Lavorgnia talks about the Fed raising rates in September, the backlash to AI data centers, and seasonality— September is always a weak month.
But now I think that because of this growing concern, the market could surprise us with growth, and perhaps the Fed meeting on September 15 will be a turning point. If the Fed neither cuts nor raises rates, which is our base case scenario, I believe the markets could go very high. Let's start with why September keeps everyone on edge, because these fears are real and quite specific.
There are three of them, and they overlap each other. The first is the Fed. The Jackson Hole speech has raised the question of a rate hike at the September 15 meeting again , and the market is now pricing those chances at almost 60%. The second is the calendar. September is historically the weakest month of the year for stocks, and every trader knows it .
The third is AI commerce, where more and more voices are warning that the hundreds of billions being invested in data centers are starting to resemble a “bubble.” Put all of this together and you get the nervous, sell-off-prone market we are in right now. Today's video was created with the support of Kalshi.
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To get your $25 bonus , simply make your first $50 ese are arguments in favor of fear, and they are not unfounded. But look closely at the actual sequence of events this month, because it changes the whole picture. Two reports will be released before the Fed meeting: employment data for August and a new inflation indicator.
The mechanical reality , as Tom Lee points out, is this: if even one of the indicators turns out to be weak and the labor market cools all summer, the Fed will have no reason to raise rates, and the entire basis for the sell-off will disappear. That's why Lee changed his forecast. He started the month expecting a market pullback.
He sees such a unanimously pessimistic mood right now that he thinks the surprise will be the opposite. And this is the same man who predicted the restoration when almost no one else believed in it. He describes a rare, uncomfortable moment when maximum fear meets minimum stance, which leaves one obvious question.
If it's not the Fed destroying Bitcoin, then what has been driving it all this time? Well, that's market positioning, right? Bitcoin is down 50 % from its highs , right? And if you look at the history of price dynamics, Bitcoin actually follows the monetary policies of the US and China. Literally, this is this is in my This is my thesis, and if you read my posts, that's pretty much all I'm talking about, right ?
A little Bank of Japan, you know, added for flavor. But that's exactly what it was created for. Genesis block in January 2009, what happened then? The US reneged on its commitment to maintaining a sound currency by bailing out banks and forcing poor people to lose their homes, right? Here's what happened.
And as a result, we have Bitcoin. The most effective asset in human history, absorbing trillions of dollars, trillions of fiat units, quadrillions of yen printed since 2009. Some of this goes into the crypt. This is the purest reflection of that. And so when we talk about the most important central bank of the empire that rules the world moving towards Bank of Japan-style yield curve control, explicitly or implicitly.
We are currently in an implicit phase. And the market understands this. Like, oh [ __ ], okay, now it 's started. Everything we talked about, oh, yield curve control means $1 million bitcoin. You know, I've said this like, damn, 5,000 times, right? And I [ __ ] mean it . But first we had to see yield curve control .
Now we see it . Take a look at the 10-year yield. It will not rise above 5% . Every time it gets close and it looks like it's headed for that 5% mark, that answer reframes the entire graph. Bitcoin doesn't really trade depending on whether the Fed changes the rate by a quarter point in September. If you step back and look at his entire 15 years of life, he tracked one force more closely than any other: the total amount of money created by the world's central banks.
Arthur Hayes takes us back to the beginning. Bitcoin was born in 2009 from the wreckage of bank bailouts, conceived from day one as a receipt for just such money printing. So when Geis looks back on this moment, he's not fixated on a betting decision. He watches as the most important central bank on Earth approaches something much bigger than a single rate hike.
Listen to what he says: "Bitcoin is really a bet on... " What Hayes is driving here is the line between noise and signal. Noise is the September meeting. The signal is that the machine printing new money never turned off. She just keeps changing her costume. And once you see the world from that angle, one betting decision starts to seem like a rounding error against the backdrop of a 15-year trend.
But what makes Hayes so confident that money printing will continue? The proof lies in a series of steps the US Treasury took just two weeks ago. A short pause before we move on to these steps. If you want to push aside the fear and noise and actually understand where we are in the cycle, that is the main reason Crypto Nutshell exists.
This is my free 5- minute daily newsletter. No manipulation, no apocalyptic predictions, only signals that really matter. Presented in plain language and sent to is is the fastest way to stop reacting to headlines and start seeing the big picture. The government is coming out with a new program. Yellen, Treasury bills vs.
bonds. Since then, buybacks have joined in. If the Japanese threaten to sell their Treasury bonds, he is going to use the FEMA repo tool. This is what they tell us. They make it clear that you are not allowed to sell US Treasury bonds. And if you do, we'll come up with some weird monetary and credit program to print money to ensure that the integrity of the US Treasury bond market is preserved.
The government will be able to borrow whatever it needs to do what it wants , at an affordable price. You can give a damn about everyone else . That's what they tell you. That's why I want my bitcoin. I want my gold. Yes? I want these types of assets in this scenario. Do I really want S&P 500 stocks?
You know, yes, of course. I'm sure they will grow over time, but it won't be an explosive asset because they are trying to protect that market as well. So I think that's what we're here for . This is the same moment. August, summer. Quite quiet. Suddenly, you know, the bond markets start to panic. The Treasury unexpectedly announces an increase in buyback volumes .
Yes? Like, what happened in the market? Why today and not tomorrow or the next day? I don't know. But that was today. And now all the things we feared about debt sustainability are coming to the fore again . And it feels like: oh my god, 5% is the limit. He defended her again, and again, and again. What will they do next?
Because it's obvious that this won't solve the problem. Okay, profitability has declined, I don't know. 460s or something. I'm sure they'll grow up a bit. But this is not a solution at all. We'll have to...They'll have to go straight down the path of the Bank of Japan. Just like Japan. And you know, these are the consequences.
The undeniable proof that money printing never stops lies in what just happened in the US bond market. On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant did something that was barely noticeable in crypto news but stunned Wall Street. Without warning, he at least doubled the government bond buyback program from $2 billion to $4 billion per transaction and openly stated that the amount could increase.
These buybacks are scheduled from September 9th to early November, right through the danger zone that everyone feared, and to fund them, the Fed is holding a “military reserve” of nearly $1 trillion in Treasury accounts. In simple terms: as soon as long-term interest rates began to approach levels that frightened governments, the US stepped in to bring them back down.
This is money creation in a new guise. Hayes's phrase that you simply are not allowed to sell U.S. Treasuries sounds like a provocation until you compare it to the calendar. Every time the yield jumps to 5%, new support appears out of nowhere, and each one does the same job you already guessed. It protects the value of government debt by infusing the system with fresh liquidity.
This liquidity has to go somewhere, and when it settles, the rarest assets on Earth tend to move first and hardest. So, the fuel is being loaded right now. The only open question is timing, and there is a good technical reason why the fourth quarter will be the flashpoint. I mean, I think we look at it this way: first of all, I think crypto fundamentals have been good this year because we know that the tokenization movement is very strong.
I mean, Robinhood was a breakthrough product launch. Truly one of the greatest hits. And agent-based AI is useful for crypto, but we were in the middle of this crypto winter. I really believe that the catalysts have come together and will strengthen by the end of the year, because, first of all, crypto is the best macro asset in the third quarter to date.
So I think there will be institutional investment in crypto in September and the fourth quarter. Secondly, you know, the 4- year crypto cycle actually ends next month. So, I think people who turned off crypto on their screens will come back again. Korean investors who were very active in crypto, you know, switched to AI earlier this year, but we're already seeing volume growth in Korea, so they're coming back to crypto.
And lastly: if the Clarity Act is passed, which is quite possible this year. And if that happens, I think Bitcoin and Ethereum are in for a great fourth quarter. So, is cryptowinter over and will strong third and fourth quarters offset the Bitcoin decline we’ve seen over the past year? Yes. I think it was a pretty short cryptowinter.
But there has been a massive reduction in the debt burden. For example, there was a significant decline in October, and then twice more earlier this year. So I believe that very few people own cryptocurrency. So I think Bitcoin could easily reach six figures , maybe... if there is a rate hike, what will happen?
From the crypt side. I think this will be a good test. But we already know that long-term rates have risen. So if the rate is raised and long-term yields fall, this will actually be a loosening of monetary policy. So, it may depend on how long-term yields react to the Fed rate hike . You said there would be a jump in crypto.
It seems like the last time you were on air. Is that what you were talking about, or even more, up to 90,000? I don't remember exactly what you said, but you thought he... Yes. ... will go up. I think this is... the beginning? Yes, I think this is the first wave of growth, because it was a movement that caught many by surprise.
Yes. I think institutional investors are buying up crypto stocks. This is very noticeable. Trading volumes have indeed increased dramatically. And that's a sign that they're betting on a strong fourth quarter. Now about the technical aspect. Even during the worst moments of the last two weeks, money continued to flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
August was the strongest month of the year in terms of capital inflows: over $3 billion, and total assets in these funds just crossed the $99 billion mark, approaching $100 billion for the first time . This is not panic buying in a downturn by retail investors. This is Morgan Stanley, whose own Bitcoin ETF now has the lowest fees on the market, and wealth management platforms methodically invest client funds at the very moment when everyone else is scared.
And here is a subtle mechanism that turns the fear of raising rates upside down . When the Fed raises short-term rates and long-term yields fall in response, which is exactly the reaction we are seeing, financial conditions actually ease. This is the exact opposite of what a rate hike is supposed to do.
So, the one event this market fears may instead become a tailwind. Add to that what Bernstein analysts published just last week. They now predict that Bitcoin will return to a new record of $150,000 by mid-2027 and $ 300,000 by the end of the decade, fueled by this very depreciation dynamic. So, you have capital flows , there are clear price targets from serious institutions , and there is a decision by the Fed that could be beneficial in any case.
There is only one worry left. The loud one that supposedly sucks all the oxygen out of the cryptosphere. It's time to tackle the issue of AI head-on. I think what you're saying is largely correct because AI is such a compelling story, and it's making people a lot of money. It also brings money to institutional investors.
This raises the bar for everything else. I mean, can you imagine going into a meeting where one person wants to talk about AI stocks and the other wants to talk about, you know, residential real estate? Someone will simply not pay attention to that second conversation. And so you are right. But as the story of AI develops, it's important to think about the stories that stem from it.
Because that's where you can make mistakes in capital allocation. You know, many people thought that software was "dead" . But in reality, software is a derivative of AI. In fact, AI will benefit many of these companies, which is why the stocks of many software firms are now starting to recover. Cryptocurrency is a very important derivative story for AI.
The stronger AI becomes, the less relevant crypto becomes. This is a key point, is n't it? In fact, the more AI develops, the more important cryptocurrency becomes. So, crypt is definitely a derivative story from AI, but in terms of timing, I think you're right. While AI is fine, things have changed now, but earlier this year, no one cared about owning anything else.
But now that is changing. The loudest argument against crypto right now is that artificial intelligence has taken over all the attention. Every dollar, every headline, every bit of investor attention is racing toward Nvidia and the development of data centers. And they say that crypto simply cannot compete for "oxygen" in the world of AI.
Tom Lee believes this story is headed in the wrong direction . He claims that cryptocurrency is a derivative of artificial intelligence, and the connection here is much more real than it seems. Imagine what an economy full of AI agents would actually need. Billions of micropayments between machines every second, without human intervention and across any borders, with instant settlement.
The traditional banking system, with its working hours and multi-day settlements, is physically unable to cope with such a load. Blockchains are capable. So the force that people think is killing the crypt is actually giving it the greatest job in history. If AI is truly on its way to a $ 10 trillion and then $100 trillion economy, the idea that crypto will remain just a $ 1.5 trillion note falls apart.
The more powerful AI becomes, the more the world needs the infrastructure on which Bitcoin and its associated networks are built; therefore, the AI wave that is supposedly draining this market could become the biggest source of demand for it. If you put all this together, the view of the situation from the other side of fear does not coincide at all with what is written in the headlines.
So, let's combine these two things . Arthur Hayes tells you which way the wind blows. The printing press that has powered Bitcoin for years is not only working, it's accelerating in real time through the bond market, and Tom Lee is here to tell you where we are in that flow. Institutions buying up assets on fear, a Fed decision that could be “ bullish” on any given timeline, a four-year cycle that is being updated, and a wave of AI that is fueling, not depleting, this market.
The September scare is real. Volatility is real. No one can guarantee that the price of Bitcoin won't fall to 73 or 74 thousand before it's all over, and Tom Lee himself admits this. This is not a guarantee, and anyone who says otherwise is trying to sell you something. But a market where fuel is being loaded, institutions are hoarding assets, and the crowd is gripped by unanimous terror— this is historically what a range bottom looks like before it ceases to be a bottom.
Those who are currently being " shaken out" of the market usually mistake the final check as the end of history. If this has helped you understand your fears a little better, that's exactly what I do every morning at that banishes panic and gives you the signals that really matter before the rest of the market does. tomorrow's issue will be delivered to you as soon as it's released. So, .
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