저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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2024년 7월 예산안의 자본이득세 인상 및 바이백 과세 변경을 논의. 자본이득세는 시장 수익 구조에 큰 영향이 없을 것이라 평가, 국내 기관 현금 보유(약 5%)와 국내 수급이 단기 방향을 좌우한다고 봄. 바이백 과세 변경으로 배당 대신 자사주 매입 차익이 생기는 재정거래(38% vs 12.5%) 우려 제기하며 정부가 보완할 가능성 언급. 부동산은 기존 자산 불리, 신규 프로젝트 주식은 유리하다는 의견. 비상장 주식 장기이득세 12.5% 적용으로 프라이빗 에쿼티 투자에 긍정적이라고 봄. 기업 이익 성장 15~17% 유지 전제.
다듬은 글
well chairman and co-founder of mwal financial services Ram good to have you with us here you know when you were with us on the program you were jokingly saying cap taxation always is a googly and we don't know and one hope you were saying you hope nothing is done things are going great Etc it's both have been done everything has been done stt on fno and short-term longterm your your view in terms of how this changes anything if at all yeah yeah so we are open to tinkering of everything any point of time so there are two things one is capital gains and then second is a capital gains tax so markets are all about capital gains and that story is not impacted good thing is that capital gains per se will happen irrespective and then once you have the capital gains then whether shortterm long-term is speculative then you pay little more so I think uh as far as the market side is concerned where capital gains are made I think that is pretty much protective that's what I I would think because capital gains is about corporate earnings growth uh liquidity flow I mean those things are that story is very intact so I would think that uh they're looking at it that the real boom is happening uh in stock market and hence Let's uh uh let's take uh cream off the you know top and they have increased the long-term shortterm I think speculative GS they in any case they taxed at the marginal rate there is no more scope but I think the biggest story is about the buyback if the buyback tax has been abolished and it has to be taxed in the hands of uh recipient in that case all the BuyBacks will go instead of 20% it will go to 12 half% so where is the dividend now who which management would be encouraged to pay dividend at and and get tax at 38% so I think there is going to be a massive Arbitrage between 38% and 12 half% so let's see I mean we have we have not seen the fine print only abolition of uh uh what do you call uh buyback tax has been removed so it will be in the hands of recipient but let's see I mean what is there you know um Ram G actually I was looking at the fine print because I was looking at a lot of these tax issues that have happened the fine print says that BuyBacks are going to be taxed as dividend in the hand of the recipient and what is the prevailing regime for dividends it is the the slab rate and the highest slab rate for you know High income earners is uh um you know 38% right now as for the new regime so I think the current interpretation is the Arbitrage is complet completely gone even if you want to enjoy income from BuyBacks you have to pay 38% tax I think the difference is that what they're saying that the the cost of acquisition of that share that you'll eventually tender in the buyback that will be treated as a loss so you can offset that loss against your other capital gain that's the the fine print that I got I mean speaking to a lot of tax experts after the speech but my but my question you know just to come to um Mr agrawal's earlier Point sir you were saying taxes are fine as long as there is capital gain so let's address that does the rest of this this budget give enough impetus for this Market to really move into a new trajectory the flows are there we've discussed that with you you're saying taxes can be handled but what about uh you know fresh impetus yeah so that is do with the corporate earnings so they have done nothing which will hurt the corporate earnings if anything because there is a do out to all sections of society I think there will be some impetus to the consumption which in any in any case was Reviving from the rural side that's what RBI governor was saying the Revival was there in and with a good Monsoon and hopefully little lower interest rate uh I think uh and the handouts which we have which we are seeing across through the standard Direction and restation of rates I think there will be there will be some money in the 25 30,000 rupees in everybody's hand to spend more so hopefully there there would be some at the margin some importance to the consumption uh randev uh this is Rema here did you speak to any foreign investors what is their take because for them uh the post tax attractiveness of the Indian Equity markets come down comes down especially when you're competing with other Emerging Markets where you don't have long-term capital gain tax to begin with mhm yeah again I think uh the it is a capital gains tax but uh I think like any other investor they would also be more interested in the capital gains first and then capital gains tax so if the micro story of corporate hings growth of about 15 to 17% intact I would think that uh this negativity which has developed for few hours right now it will be strued off maybe in a day or two that that's my thinking but R the problem is you know FIS was sellers still say 2 months ago and you had made this point they'll come in and they'll come in at higher prices they did and suddenly out of nowhere this tax comes yeah it could derail the story a little bit because in the last one month or so India has been standing out we have got a couple of billion dollars other Emerging Markets actually they've seen selling you expect them to keep the faith and they'll take it in their stride I would think so because see right now the stories that of not Capital flow of foreigners it is the more of the uh domestics and actually for last 2 months domestic flow has been uh record flow and investment has been very low actually if you see the July month domestics have not bought anything and even in June I think they bought little but the flow has been extremely robust so all the mutual funds are sitting on very good quantity of cash in across the schemes maybe 5% 7% so ahead of the event knowing that there's going to be a bad tax proposals everybody was sitting on fans my sense is that uh if the coer earnings are not impacted they have to come and buy because because the flow is still on yeah so it is the domestic flow which is going to decide the fate of the short-term direction of the market rather than the Foreigner flow right right now got that uh and and it is all retail I mean NES had put out a piece I think this was last Friday that uh mutual funds are sitting on some 1.25 lakh uh uh you know crores on uh on on as far as cash levels are concerned but you also made the point that that's still about 5% of the AUM the AUM has become so large that a 5% is still a mighty 1.25 to almost one and a half L it takes a lot more to move an index at 24,000 so yeah I mean that point is taken but yeah mutual funds are sitting on cash uh RAM just a quick word on real estate this entire indexation benefit being taken away uh I know you're not a big fan of sort of real estate in that sense for other reasons what but what is your sense incidence of tax I think uh they don't have any intention to give any tax break to uh the guys who are making capital gains they have definitely increase the taxes for the anybody who has got the capital gains whether it is a real estate whether it is shares everything so uh so I'm quite sure it will be detrimental to every asset class if you look at from the prism of capital gains dmes uh just uh react to those two points one is attractiveness as as Rema was saying and R was also pointing out from a foreigner perspective how does this ltcg hike make any impact uh does it have any impact and second is the change for real estate what what are the implications in your view see as Randi rightly mentioned people come here for capital gains not worried about what tax they pay so if they see they can make decent returns of 20 30% or more they're happy to pay more 2 and a half% and generally the long-term fi holders don't come in any country just because of tax benefits objective is to make money I think so that story is intact as Rand mentioned and I think so government has not done anything which derails that story now just one more point on the buyback when we talking about buyback taxation issue I'm still confused what happens if the company announce a market buyback correct nobody knows whether you're selling in the buyback or you're selling in the market so what you may see is that the tender would May shut down but the normal buyback may continue in fact this is a good positive news or actually companies should do buyback from the market now because then they only be tax at a lower and the and the investor will be taxed at if it's longterm at 12 and a half% not the 40% dividend tax which they are paying so if you're selling in the market you get taxed and you don't know who's buying on the other side so both seller and buyer end up paying ends upay used to end up paying the tax right yeah but I a long-term tax right tax or 40% tax correct in fact I'm happy to sell in the open market and instead of the Le of the buyback through tender rout this is what I'm understand from the fine print they not not mentioned what happens when you sell in the market okay so you just shut down a tender root buyback route nothing else okay so BuyBacks through the open market and in fact that was one of the asks that you know uh do away with this so that that confusion sort of doesn't exist but what we've got is a is a very different facet uh dmes uh you know just the point on on real estate as well till this's further Clarity and absolute Clarity on this indexation piece I me what's your sense to to any extent does it uh you know lead to a slightly more medium term cool off uh when it comes to property stocks what is your expectation on this as I understand the newer properties won't get impacted right correct so if I'm buying the newer company I'm buying for the new projects they're launching not for the old ones which they have so this is bad news for the individual owner which owns because of ancal property or he's been owning from last 10 20 30 years but the new projects coming in won't be you know getting that tax issue so you think that this is the coming budget that can change also eventually so you think this is more of a knee because I mean the overall announcement seemed a little negative without indexation but you think this is more of a knej from a uh you know real estate stock point of view yes you the stocks you're buying are for the future growth rather than the past okay uh go got it uh randu any other any other sectors your team is highlighting I mean there's something done for gold uh stocks are rallying any other sectors come to mind uh I mean I I heard the entire budget speech what we could figure out is that of course the gold gold has become gold jewelry has become I think uh the taxes have gone half in that from 18% to if I tell you 9% or something I think your own analyst was see that % uh that was one but basically there is no relief anywhere I mean there's no freebies anywhere unless something by mistake like this buyback thing uh could I I think the buyback thing what uh uh if if you do the open buyback in the marketplace and you surrender shares and you pay 12 and a half I think is the end of dividend I think just the Arbitrage is too big and the dividend is not decided by small small guys dividend is decided by the management so if the management has to pay 38% of the dividend and uh uh if you have to pay 12 and half for the buyback I don't know what will be the story of dividend so I think it's a much broader issue much bigger issue because uh in dividend discount model dividend is everything for the market so it's a big thing I think the subject whatever they might have proposed even if there is some loophole or unint unintended benefit which we are seeing I think they will try to plug it and make it as as tax tax intensive as the dividend is right now so uh once that is done then there's no Arbitrage otherwise there is a massive Arbitrage right Ru since you're saying this is a big issue and a broader issue can you uh in in very simple words uh explain what has happened and what is this Arbitrage I mean how does this work yeah so you know uh D is about the management cor management declares divent looking at their own corporate tax rates okay they pay 38% so if they can they can buy back the they can surrender some shares and buy buy it back to the company money at 12 half% so they would do that no it is one thing is it reduces the number of shares in any case so the EPS of the future outstanding shares in any case go up is the healthiest thing to happen but I'm I'm doing both the things right in the sense that I'm cutting my tax rate and I'm I'm reducing the number of shares in the marketplace while while holding the same percentage of the company so uh I think it's a huge Abit I think let's see in what form finally it comes right now it is just a proposal abolition of dividend distribution tax but when when it is in the hands of recipient how the exer is defining it so that there is no Arbitrage left left between divid and and buyback I don't think they have intention to make buyback very attractive in the hands of management uh we service D that is not the intention at all let's say in what form it comes no I I completely take your point sir because if that is sort of a you know a backd door route that the market tries to sort of come up with perhaps we'll see more action from New Delhi in the next year and the subsequent sort of prints are coming and remember I mean the budget still has to be passed and a lot sometimes happens when the final sort of uh uh passages is happening through Parliament uh dmesh one more point now Angel tax has been completely abolished of course you're in the deal Market you bring so many companies to the listed space right it's becoming very uh very very simple now once again for startups and unlisted companies to go back and raise uh raise capital in the in the private Universe should this have any bearing on the IPO pipeline funding appetite because this is I mean I think they've got uh amongst most most participants they've got the best deal the whole tax is being taken away in fact there's one more you know tax announcement which has happened we still trying to check saying that you know the unlisted segment now we'll be taxed at the long-term capital gains so basically now if you're before your IPO you'll still be paying only 12 and a half% absolutely which was not the case right now which was 20% right so the private Equity markets become uh very very uh interesting right from from an investor point of view I had to write I mean up till now it was two years of holding and paid 20% long-term gains on unlisted shares but now it's 12 and a half% so listed listed is at Power at 12 a half% what what implications what do you foresee in the coming weeks and months on the private Equity side both from the company standpoint and the investor appetite standpoint see it BEC very attractive for private Equity guys now to invest in companies because they get an exit even before the IPO and at a much lower tax rate so in that sense it's very positive for the country also because more money can come in at you know prior to an IPO which is much required so that overall actually it's a positive thing for the influ will come in in this and this will be more long-term money rather than short-term money coming yeah no got that uh you know I think we'll uh wrap it up here dmes thank you very much for speaking on on this important day appreciate your time here Ram great having you with us appreciate it Gotham appreciate you joining us as well uh thanks indeed uh you know we'll uh take a quick commercial break but you are watching our budget coverage from the CNBC TV8 motal Studios we I have NES Envision Capital with us he's right here and N thanks for waiting we're going to come back after this break and continue the budget conversation stay with us
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