저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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바이든 대선 하차는 시장에 큰 영향 없는 non-event로 평가. 미국 소형주 반등은 숏커버링과 바이오·지방은행 등 특정 섹터 영향이며 실적 개선은 미미해 재검토 중. 인도 시장은 개혁 기대로 긍정적이나 루피 약세로 외국인 수익률은 불리. 트럼프 당선 시 달러 약세·인도 수혜 기대에 대해서는 불확실성이 크다고 신중 입장; 관세는 중국 협상용 전략일 수 있으나 무역전쟁 확대 시 모두에게 불리하며, 미국 경기 강세로 달러에 우호적일 수 있음.
다듬은 글
okay well let's get you some perspective Ed yard president at yard research is joining us now Ed goo for your time here Prashant deide so two questions one there was this nent recovery in small caps in the US uh that for the last two days has gotten sold into that is one I mean what's happening there and second uh implications for markets of this Biden announcement well I think with regards to the uh rally that we had in the small cap some of that was short covering some of that was very specific to biotech and U Banks Regional banks that had been uh knocked down last year had a big recovery in a couple of days uh but then people had some second thoughts about it and uh had a closer look at the earnings story in this small cap area and it's not that exciting it's been kind of flat for the past two years I think one of the structural problems in the small cap area is all the good companies get get bought out before they go public uh I don't know they will ever find the Microsoft again uh you know in the sense that if there is a Microsoft out there that's just a newbie just just kind of growing it'll get bought out before it ever goes public so I think that's an issue with regards to uh Biden as you said so far the preliminary evidence on the SNB Futures is that it's a nonevent look uh the the political situation is so crazy here in the US that the stock market Market simply uh has decided let's just tune it out until we get uh the next president and see what the next set of policies are all about it's a very fluid situation actually that's true because we haven't seen any kind of volatility in the US markets despite all the back and forth the yo-yoing of the presidential candidates the health Etc right so that's that's actually a good thing to be disassociated from the political news but back home as well we have a huge event upon us there's a union budget tomorrow uh the markets have after a big rally in India started to correct a tad bit now we don't know if this is time consolidation or is it price-wise consolidation but in your opinion what's the best way to approach the market now in India well I think things are changing for the better in India and a regular basis uh I kind of like the election results that there's still some checks and balances in the political system but I think uh the government of uh of Modi remains uh very much in charge and I think they're going to be able to get some of their reforms through and some of their uh areas in in tax cuts particularly in the capital gain side so I think that all uh is positive for the market the Market's discounted a lot of good news but it it is a positive for foreign investors it's tougher because the rupee keeps going down so you make money in in the Indian stock market but on the other hand you if you translate it to other currencies it's it's it's not working out that well hi Ed morning good to see you Ben Ed from an India market perspective an Emerging Market perspective the street believes that Trump president Trump will be much better than any other candidate because uh if president Trump comes in the dollar Index is likely to be a little bit softish and given his relationships with India India is likely to be a beneficiary would you agree well I think it's uh it's too soon to tell quite honestly you know just to be brutally honest about it there's a lot of uncertainty just because Trump says that he'd like to see a week dollar doesn't necessarily mean that's going to happen and uh I think that um you know clearly the uh Trump policies are a mixed bag on the negative side there's a lot of talk about tariffs and I think he's using it right now as a sort of a bargaining approach to China but if this thing with him accelerates into a trade war that wouldn't be good for the US wouldn't be good for China wouldn't be good for World Trade so I think it's a little premature to conclude that Trump is definitely a positive for emerging markets that Trump is definitely going to have an impact one way or the other on the dollar the fact of the matter is is the US economy is very strong it's doing remarkably well relative to other countries and that typically favors the dollar got it uh Ed we leave it there for now great conversation as always thank you very much uh that you were able to join us and shed light on many of the sort of dominating issues in the market us politics is dominating but not driving not for now as he yet said Mark is just saying well let's take a call once we're closer to it now
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