Fed Leaves Rate Unchanged | Kevin Warsh Didn't Deliver, Should Have Cut Rates By 25 Bps: Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

연준이 금리를 동결했으나 Kevin Warsh 발언 이후 채권시장이 부정적으로 반응했다고 평가. 워시는 신뢰 문제가 있고 실질적 예측을 내놓지 않는다고 비판. 2년물 금리가 연준금리보다 75bp 높아 연준이 작년 말 인하 3회를 되돌려야 한다고 주장. 30년물 금리 5.2%로 급등. 반도체 지수는 과열 후 급락했으나 실적이 견조하고 밸류에이션이 싸져 매수 기회라고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Joining us is Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research. Ed, what do you think about the Fed's actions? Yesterday's moves were entirely expected, but after Kevin Walsh's comments, we understand even less about his position. Well , I think we actually know that. He has repeatedly reiterated that he seeks price stability, and the latest FOMC statement released today states that the committee will ensure that stability.

02. He said it now, he said it in a statement last month, and he said the same thing at a press conference. And yet he did nothing, saying, “ We are watching and considering it,” to which the bond market reacted very negatively. I think he's lost some trust, because what is he really waiting for? I thought he should have raised the rate by 25 basis points.

03. Maybe he couldn't get the votes. Of course, there were three dissenters who wanted the Fed to raise the rate. He could be among them, but it would n't look very good if he did. So maybe he pushed for a rate increase but didn't get enough votes. But for now, I would say the bond market doesn't give him a vote of confidence.

04. That's exactly what I mean: the more he talks, the more we supposedly understand his position, but his actions suggest otherwise. And that's why we understand even less what is... Yes. Yes. That's right. He says one thing and does another, or does nothing at all. But does he say anything concrete at all , Ed?

05. Well, look at this, okay? The following question was asked at the press conference : "If inflation is too high and not coming down, is raising interest rates the best solution?" His answer, verbatim: "If inflation remains high over the forecast period, interest rates may well be part of the solution, but I wouldn't say it's the only solution." That's a straight answer, is n't it?

06. This...this...what would you call it? Verbal okroshka. Yes. Yeah, listen, so far I have to say I'm not impressed. This fixation on not providing any predictions. Well, I mean, we already know that the Fed presidents, the regional Fed presidents, will continue to give speeches, so we'll get plenty of guidance that way.

07. And one more thing I would like to point out is that if he really is saying that the Fed shouldn't influence the markets. Well, we should, he says, the Fed shouldn't depend on data. He wants markets to depend on data, not the Fed. And then he wants the Fed to listen to the markets and respond accordingly.

08. Well , he's not listening because the two-year Treasury note is now 75 basis points higher than the Fed rate. And this essentially two-year commitment suggests that the Fed really needs to reverse those three rate cuts that happened late last year, because those cuts weren't really needed. So, uh, now, as I said, he has, at least in my opinion, a trust issue.

09. M, yeah, absolutely, uh, a sell-off in the markets, right, uh, and to complete this cycle, bond yields have skyrocketed, 30- year, 10-year, long-term, basically, they've jumped. True. And that, in essence, is the bond market challenging him. Absolutely, you know, I coined the term " bond avengers" back in 1983, and, you know, he basically said he would listen to them, but he's not listening to them, and the bond market has responded accordingly.

10. You know, I think you have to raise the stakes to lower them. You have to raise the federal funds rate to lower bond yields. Bond avengers want to see the Fed keep a close eye on inflation. And now the bond avengers are saying, "Well, the Fed didn't do it at this meeting, so we'll be even more vigilant." And, uh, so right now we have a 30- year bond yield of 5.2%, which is the highest it's been in many, many years.

11. Chip maker stocks, right? The SOX index, uh, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, down 5%, again, I don't know how much we're down this week, probably 10-15%, so, uh, how do you understand that, where are we at right now with this pullback? Yeah, well, you know, uh, anytime you look at a stock chart and see that the price has gone up sharply in a very short period of time, uh, you can almost always expect that there will be an equally rapid move down.

12. The only question is: how far down? Is this a correction? Is this a "bear" market? Will this have any fundamental impact on the company, the industry, or the market as a whole? And I see that the earnings story has been phenomenal for semiconductors and even for hyperscalers. Cloud computing data shows a huge demand for computing power, and I think these hyperscalers have realized that they would like to have this power already, because they could earn even more.

13. So, I'm very encouraged by what I 'm seeing, in the sense that I'm not against the sell-off in the high-tech sector, which actually creates buying opportunities because earnings are holding up very well and valuation multiples are getting to the point where these stocks are just plain cheap. I understand.

14. So, you're not one of those people who thinks it's over, that this is the end, nothing like that, right? Nothing like that. Strategically, this is a good buying opportunity. Yes, this is a good buying opportunity. I think there's some craziness in the market right now because of the volatility, but if you have the stamina, I would say it's not the same as catching a falling knife and getting hurt.

15. I think these are good opportunities. Got it. Okay, let's stop there. Thank you very much for joining us. It's always nice to talk to you. Thank you for your time here at CNBC TV18. al studio.