저자: MattPocius/출연자DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 급락을 매수 기회로 보며 장기 보유 입장을 유지하지만, 단기적으로는 거시환경(금리 인상, 은행 리스크)을 우려한다. 테슬라 투자 견해: Ives는 투자자 설명회 이후 급락을 '소문에 팔고 뉴스에 파는' 상황으로 보고 매수 기회라고 주장한다. 2023년 인도량 180만 대 목표는 보수적이며 상회 가능하다고 본다. 1년 목표가는 225달러, 강세 시나리오는 250달러 부근이다. 단기 리스크: 재고 수준과 미국 모델3 수요 둔화를 주시해야 한다. 그러나 더 큰 위험은 거시환경이며, 금리가 계속 오르면 성장주 하락이 매수 기회가 된다고 본다. 실리콘밸리은행(SVB) 사례: 예금 급증으로 대규모 MBS를 매입했으나 금리 상승으로 가치가 급락했다. 210억 달러 매각 손실 18억 달러, 증자·채권 발행 계획을 발표하면서 주가가 하루 60% 폭락했다. 시스템 리스크가 경제 전반으로 번지면 테슬라도 타격을 받을 수 있으나, 발행자는 테슬라 주식을 계속 보유하고 위기 시 추가 매수할 계획이다. 경쟁 구도: 중국의 NIO, XPeng, 리오토, BYD 등 경쟁이 확대되고 있으나 테슬라는 규模·배터리 기술에서 우위에 있다. 일부 중국 업체(NIO, BYD)에 대한 투자 기회도 언급했다. GM 구조조정: GM이 미시간 직원 3만 5천 명에게 권고사직(바이아웃)을 제시한 것을 부정적으로 평가하며 GM에 대해 부정적이다. 테슬라는 6월 약 3.5% 인력을 감축했다. 개인 투자 조언: 장기 보유 의견을 유지하며, 변동성 감내 가능한 사람만 테슬라에 투자하고 그 외에는 S&P500 등 분산 투자를 권한다. 테슬라는 파산하지 않을 것이라고 강조한다. 과거 S&P500도 큰 폭락을 여러 번 겪었음을 언급했다. 참고: 본 영상은 2023년 3월 기준이며 현재 시점의 가격 방향과는 무관하다.
다듬은 글
buy and the Rumor selling the news situation post uh investor day but but we be buyers as Tesla stock drops down a five-star analyst then I says it is a buying opportunity let's take a look look I mean you've made a lot of calls and they worked out they've really worked out I know that we've had a little bit of a pullback in 2022 but once again in 2023 we saw a lot of these things at least get some of that back tell me about Tesla which has been under pressure over the last week or so um but the big picture has still been a great great performer what are you focused on after that investor meeting look at the investor mean basically laid out that musk is going to be able to really reduce 30 to 50 percent in terms of the production costs and that's significant that's going to weigh out eventually which is a sub 30 000 vehicle it was a flex to muscles moment and you're looking forward look at rivian look at Lucid I think it just shows from a scale and scope perspective what they're seeing price Cuts is driven significant demand out of the gates China is obviously a key variable but I still believe Boogie for the year 1.8 million is probably conservative I think they could beat that and I think Tesla's just going sort of you know a Buy on the rumor selling the news situation post uh investor day but but we be buyers that of course makes a lot of sense short term there are some concerns that some investors have I think if you are worried about the inventory and the demand temporarily that is a point to be made you be how to look at these inventory levels closely being under a level of model 3 in the US right now is starting to rise so we want to watch this closely but the macro environment is what would worry me a lot more short term for example this shows a great Mini case study of how things can go horribly wrong if interest rates keep going up this is an explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank in 2021 the bank saw a mass influx in deposits which jumped from 62 billion at the end of 2019 to 189 billion at the end of 2021 as deposits grew svb could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this Capital as a result they purchased a large amount over 80 billion dollars in mortgage-backed Securities with these deposits for their hold to maturity portfolio and this is where it starts to get really interesting and if you are a Tesla stock investor you want to pay attention to this because there could be a huge ripple effect in the whole economy and then if the whole economy goes down Tesla stock will be dragged with that but the question is will Tesla stock rise a lot first before that happens if it does happen 97 of these mortgage-backed Securities were 10-year duration or longer with a weighted average yield of 1.56 percent that's really low you can get a lot more right now if you put your money almost anywhere because the interest rates are so much higher the issue is that as the FED raise interest rates in 2022 and continue to do so through 2023 the value of the banks mortgage-backed Securities plummeted this is because investors can now purchase long duration risk-free bonds from a government from the FED at a two and a half times higher yield so if you can earn four and a half percent let's say versus this one and a half percent of course these mortgage-backed Securities are now worth not as much as before this is not a liquidity issue as long as the bank maintains their deposit since the Securities will pay out more than they cost eventually however yesterday afternoon the bank announced that they had sold 21 billion dollars of their available for sale Securities at a 1.8 billion dollar loss and we're raising another 2.25 billion in equity and debt this game has a surprise to investors who were under the impression that the bank had enough liquidity to avoid selling they are available for sale portfolio and you went to see the result of all of this sixty percent down in just one single day 22 down just in the after hours and the problem is when something really bad happens to the banking sector um that hurts the whole economy not good at all but this is a relatively small institution only 6.2 billion Market capital is going to be smaller after it was dropping the after hours but if this spreads throughout the economy and the banking sector this would be bad for the whole economy I'm keeping all of my Tesla stock of course though and I'm making sure that my businesses are operating very well so that they have cash flow and if the economy does go through a crisis then I will be picking up a lot of Tesla stock Caribbean and lucid and I think about a lot of the competitors in China you know you have Neo and x-pang and Lee Auto and byd the competitive landscape is becoming more broad each day but Tesla certainly has that Leap Forward that early leap and Elon Musk and the vision that it's not just a car company that they're manufacturing they have batteries and so on and so forth what's going to keep Tesla ahead of all the competition in the next several years well I mean I think it still Tesla's world that everyone else is paying rent in terms of just scale scope battery capacity battery technology but but it's not I don't use a zero-sum game I think there's other ways to play in terms of some of the China plays you know Neo byd I I think GM is going to be a re-rating name in terms of everything that Mary and the team are doing it is really not looking good for GM now Tesla did cut employees and this was done in June and Tesla cut the total head count by roughly 3.5 percent not that many but still a cut not a big deal though just a few thousand people GM however has about a hundred thousand employees in the USA and it is offering a buyout to 35 000 salaried workers in Michigan here's one issue with that though then Tesla Cuts people it lets go of the people that either just don't fit in the company maybe we're now working as much they are just better off at another company but here you are trying to get rid of whoever you can get rid of a good person who is providing a lot of value to the company let's say here's your buyout please leave if you can or someone who is lazy everyone is included in this basically it would appear because 35 000 people I don't think only employees that are not performing well are included here if Tesla did that I would be a little bit worried and I this is a green tidal wave I mean this is the biggest transformation to the Auto industry since 1950s and I think it It ultimately Tesla that leads it but I think huge investment opportunities the way we see it and Tesla what's your target there yeah it's 225 and again I Think Bold case could be closer to 250.
these are one year Tesla stock price targets how worried are you about um just things getting in the way of these goals and these more bullish cases I mean whether it is an economic downturn unemployment higher rates it's going to be what I view is a significant technology cycle that ultimate is going to be a few hundred billion a market opportunity over the next eight ten years I think overall I think in this sentiment everyone's using their 2022 playbook for 2023.
CPI PPI print jobs something rate goes to six seven you know and I think in that cycle that creates the opportunities because ultimately once the FED stops s p is at 4 600 and I think that sort of you know why we believe right now is the time to own Tech uh not sort of believe those that are yelling fire into a crowd theater I think then ice has a pretty good point here just like RBC had a very good point admitting Tesla call was completely wrong they were Tesla's dog bears and they admitted that though after Tesla stock rallied 1200 percent I think then ice has a point in that you cannot just look back at what worked just now and then expect that it will work again over and over and over again that is why by the way I continually go back to my Tesla stock thesis and I rethink everything and I question myself is this still going to be just as good as I thought before and the answer to that question is yes absolutely actually it's looking better long term I think because I am buying more and I'm buying at a cheaper price and many people have just given up on fossil driving completely and are ignoring what is going to happen getting back to interest rates then Ives is not worried about potentially much higher interest rates for me well if interest rates keep going up and growth stocks keep going down to me that's a buying opportunity although a few people I know bought Tesla stock close to 100 not quite but pretty close and when Tesla stock recently you went all the way up to 210 dollars I was talking to one of them and it seemed that there were some worries that if Tesla stock went down to 100 it would be terrible to which I said well sounds like you either need to do more research about Tesla's stock or maybe you own too much of it if you are that worried of course not Financial advice when my family asked me where they should put their money into I tell them however much you tolerate losing put that into Tesla's stock because you know it's really volatile and even if it does really well if you are not okay with a roller coaster and a lot of my family members I know they would not be okay I don't want to get a call every time Tesla stock drops five percent like today is not going bankrupt I literally had one of the people that I know very well pretty wealthy too ask me ventessa stock dropped down to 100 it doesn't stop going bankrupt no it's not going bankrupt definitely not bankrupt it may drop a lot lower but it is not going bankrupt I really don't think that and then everything beyond that you are willing to lose I tell them put into S P 500 unless you are closer to retirement then put some of that into maybe real estate or bonds but if you don't like real estate or bonds then I would just put everything into S P 500 however S P 500 has been down 50 multiple times before and even a lot more during a Great Depression so unless you are willing to deal with the volatility don't put your money in there that's what I tell them T
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