저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라 투자자의 날 이후 주가 하락은 '재료 소멸형 매도(sell on the news)'이며 매수 기회라고 주장한다. 핵심 근거: 테슬라가 원가를 30~50% 낮출 기반을 마련했고, 3만 달러 미만 보급형 모델이 대중 시장 진입의 핵심이라는 것이다. 월가가 2030년 인도량을 660만 대로 추정하는 것은 지나치게 보수적이라고 비판했다. 목표가·전망: 테슬라 목표가는 225달러이며, 사이버트럭 양산이 시작되면 목표가가 상향될 것이라고 언급했다. 사이버트럭 선주문은 100만 대 이상이라고 주장했다. 경영진 승계: 머스크는 최소 2030년까지 CEO를 유지할 것으로 보며, 머스크가 보유 주식을 대부분 매도하기 전에는 물러나지 않을 것이라고 전망했다. 머스크의 스톡옵션 행사 시점을 주시하라고 조언했다. 경쟁사: 리비안은 생산 능력 문제로 어려움을 겪고 있으며 향후 9~12개월 내 증산이 관건이라고 평가했다. 루시드에 대해서는 부정적 평가를 내렸다. 리스크: 사이버트럭 출시 지연, 보급형 모델 발표 지연, 머스크 관련 지배구조 리스크가 언급되었다.
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that ice Raves about Tesla after the investor day for investors it's Crystal Clear just how far ahead Tesla is ahead of the rest of the Auto industry when it comes to producing and scaling EVS with last night being another display of the pure breath and scale of Tesla globally this was a Showcase Event for musk and the Tesla community on TV Dan share more of his thoughts as well as until when Elon Musk is going to be the CEO of Tesla it was a pretty long presentation about four hours some criticism just in the fact that we got this Grand Tesla Vision but it lacked details you don't seem to be concerned about that why I think that's always the narrative coming out of these events I'd say the same for Apple I think what they really did was they laid out the foundation to drive costs down 30 40 50 percent and that's going to ultimately enable them to have a lower price vehicle then actually gets it you know which I think is really the important thing I ultimately viewed it as a flexed muscles moment like for example making fun of their own old way of manufacturing Vehicles which Toyota says is a work of art but it just comes down to these events knee-jerk sell-offs I we we'd be buyers on it that's how we've been telling our investors how essential Dan is that under thirty thousand dollar Tesla model for the investor story moving forward it's the hearts and lungs to get to mass Market I fully agree with Dan here also Wall Street can you believe it Wall Street is estimating that in 2030 Tesla will deliver about 6.6 million cars only that is truly embarrassing it is so Preposterous not to take into consideration that Tesla will produce cheaper Vehicles they only model for snx free NY the Roadster which Tesla is not talking anything about that is that even coming I think it will eventually but when that's the question cyber truck and then the semi they are now modeling a cheaper Tesla what do you think is going to happen once Wall Street realizes oh Tesla has a 25 000 vehicle oh we didn't have it on our spreadsheets ah a stock just doubled ah how did we miss it again Tesla just stopped for four hours during the investor day that they are going to reduce the costs by about 50 percent for the Next Generation vehicle it is clear the next vehicle is coming and yet it is nowhere to be seen in wall Street's estimates here I mean if there is no box to fill in the new vehicle just have a higher total estimate and then you can still reduce your average selling price here at the bottom no problem to believe that Tesla will only deliver 6.6 million vehicles in 2030 is to believe that Tesla is not going to innovate anymore and that everything or for the most part almost everything that Tesla just shared with us at the investor day is a lie in other words when you have 60 70 000 hour cars okay you could sell two three million but you're never going to get to annual four five ten million when you're selling those price points that's why sub 30k is so important especially right now as part of this green tidal wave in terms of electric vehicles Tesla it's their world everyone else is paying right so this is the opportunity now but that iron fence around their install base and that's essentially what they're doing they're laying the groundwork but of course coming out of the event investors Wall Street they want more meat on the bone what then what do you make of the reaction that we're seeing in the stock today when the stock dropped after the Tesla investor day I know you were saying you weren't too concerned about anything or maybe lack of detail that we got out of the investor event yesterday but do you think that's just simply a result of the fact that Tesla has is up so much since the start of the year yeah so I think this is just a sell on the news you know in terms of maybe some anticipation going into it but if you read the tea leaves I mean musk is essentially laying out that they're going to be able to lower costs 40 50 percent look at this neighborhood look at rivian I mean they that's been a dog eat the homework situation every quarter that has the absolute best one-liners meanwhile at Lucid no one ate the homework Gary says listening to Peter Rawlinson the CEO of lucid on the lucid earnings call is like listening to the tour guide on an ocean liner about the hit and Iceberg however I believe there is actually another explanation Peter's dog simply said bad grammar run on sentences terrible spelling I can't eat this then you look at Ford and others I mean it just shows Tesla's in a very very strong position I think that's sort of Arctic way we did see some actual video of the Cyber truck although again vague promises from uh Mr musk in terms of when we can actually expect it how much uh were you moved At All by by seeing the truck and do you think how much of this is a part of your price Target well I mean that we don't really have too much factored in to our numbers I mean if you look at Cyber truck go in 2024 I think it's gonna be revolutionary I mean yeah I it's our estimate you have over a million pre-orders even if you cut that by 30 40 this is going to be massive then I guys has a Tesla stock price Target of 225 dollars the moment a cyber truck starts rolling on the streets that price Target is going to roll up because Dan said about a month ago that his price targets for attack are relatively conservative so that's clearly one reason why he's not taking the Cyber truck into consideration yet he's being cautious by maybe expecting a delay and if it doesn't happen if there is no huge delay that price target for the next 12 months is gonna go up I mean I think a year from now you're driving around Manhattan outside your Studios and you see cyber trucks and I think that's just ultimately sends that path where you're going to have Tesla expanding more and more of their model line now that they have the scale and the scope globally at what price point does Dan Ives buy That Hideous looking vehicle I didn't like it at first but now I love it I'm on that pre-order list so if you see so if you see a cyber truck in New Jersey about a year from now it could be me but look I'm but I'm just a believer again this is a it's a people hate it others love it Mad Max I just view this as sort of a revolutionary design that I think is going to you know ultimately be attracted by many tassel loyalists I don't think it's just Tesla loyalists that will want this vehicle it's simply a better pickup truck I think many people will actually want it and one million pre-orders I think that's a pretty nuclear indication of that succession because lots of questions or I think a lot of people wanted to hear a little bit more about succession from Elon Musk get a number of his Executives up on stage with him how are you viewing all this talk about succession and what Tesla might potentially look like 5 10 15 20 years from now look I think musk is CEO passed at least in 2030.
so I'm in succession you had Tom do you had others that was sort of a show of force you know to show it's not just must But ultimately look musk is the hearts and ones of Tesla it's part of how we are where we are today in terms of the what I view as the one with apple the most transformational company in the market but I think this was really showing that there's not a revolving door you have a bench and you're starting to see that now play out but I don't in terms of the CEO I believe musk is going to be CEO of Tesla uh between at least till 2030.
these Court transcripts show to me that Elon is very aware of long-term Tesla style price fluctuations and he does not like the possibility of the stock plunging long term as long as he has not sold most of his Tesla's stock I don't think Elon would just step down and just abandon the company I don't think that's a real possibility unless something really crazy happens given that circumstances remain somewhat normal I don't think Elon is going to step down until he actually sells most of his stock first and Elon is going to be granted tens of billions of dollars of Tesla stock from the latest CEO performance award and he will not be able to sell that stuff for at least five more years and but first he has to actually exercise these stock options so it's likely going to be more than five years the moment Elon exercises these stock options you want to probably pay attention and re-evaluate has anything changed as Elon still staying why did he exercise be stock options you want to probably consider looking deeper just for a little moment just to make sure nothing really seriously has changed Elon does not appear too concerned about a JD Power releasing its annual customer satisfaction rating which rivian Dethrone Tesla in the EV category what are your thoughts on rivian's future and their cash position it's a frustrating one because just like you said like I think like what origin you know built like the Prada the category it's it's game changing the problem is you have to be able to produce the vehicle and that's been their Achilles heel and it's sort of been one thing after another I believe they're starting to fix it but they need to scale over the next nine 12 months that's sort of the key and this has zero-sum game you're gonna have a lot of benefits as part of this green tidal wave including you know many in the 313 area code I believe GM is going to see a Renaissance of growth you know what happened before the Renaissance which started in the 14th century Dark Ages that lasted 900 years it is going to be a pain for rivian for rivian to recover to where it was before it needs to go up 655 well i
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