저자: MattPocius,게스트DanIves언급 · 외국인
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Dan Ives 인용 결론: 월가가 간과하는 테슬라의 다음 촉매는 에너지 저장(메가팩) 사업이며, 이 사업이 아마존 AWS처럼 수익성을 드러내면 가치 재평가가 가능하다. 에너지 사업 가치 논리: 월가는 현재 이 사업에 사실상 가치를 부여하지 않고 있다. 아마존은 AWS 분리 공개 후 재평가됐고 애플 서비스도 유사하다. 메가팩 사업이 AWS처럼 성장하면 테슬라의 다음 단계 스토리가 된다는 주장. 수치 근거: AWS 분기 이익 7억1800만 달러, 매출 29억 달러(이익 135%·매출 58% 증가), 두 분기 연속 북미 소매보다 이익이 큼. 머스크는 배터리 저장이 전기차보다 150~200% 빠르게 성장할 것이라 주장하고 에너지 사업이 EV 사업보다 커질 수 있다고 언급. 주가 및 기관 논리: 2022년 말 주가 약 100달러 수준으로 2020년 3월 수준까지 싸졌다는 평가(Gary Black). 기관 보유비율은 약 50%로 언급되며 기관 매수가 주가를 올릴 것이라는 기대. 다만 일부 13F 공시 오류 가능성을 지적. 가격 인하 및 경쟁: 대규모 가격 인하는 수요 가속을 위한 전략적 결정이며 자동차 매출총이익률은 20% 이상 유지 가능하다는 평가. 시장 리더가 경쟁을 과소평가하면 포드(1919~1927) 사례처럼 몰락할 수 있다는 경고. 리스크: 공매도 진영 Gordon Johnson의 매도 주장이 여러 차례 빗나갔다고 언급하나 장기적으로 맞을 수 있다는 점 인정. 머스크 경영 이탈 시 테슬라가 정체될 우려. 기관 투자자와 머스크 간 갈등이 2022년 하반기 매도세의 원인 중 하나였다고 분석. 출연자 전망: Dan Ives는 테슬라에 대해 강세(매수) 관점. Gary Black은 단기 강세, 2019년 말과 유사한 국면으로 평가.
다듬은 글
then I've just shared what he thinks is going to be a huge Catalyst for Tesla stock That Wall Street is completely missing in an interview with Farzad currently Dan is actually in the top 500 of all of Wall Street analysts beating the S P 500 by four and a half percent since 2009 and it actually gets quite a bit more impressive if we only compare the last 12 months then his rating jumps to 144 out of all of the Wall Street analysts how do you think about that side of the business for Tesla no I think that's the street assigned was basically no value to that business today so that's one as you look out and that's huge potential as a scallop I think them breaking out margins further on that business would actually be a positive because it goes back to like with Amazon you never got credit with AWS so you broke it on you broke out the margins now it's a big part of the the massive rereading in Amazon for apple is services so a lot of times they have to be a little more granular when you break out some of these businesses provide some margin detail and that's something that I think is important to the next leg of that school you took like the next step for the Tesla story it's about that it's about the energy piece that was then talking about the mega pack business and comparing it to Amazon's AWS business and this may read exactly eventually like the energy storage business May for it has like AWS Amazon's cloud computing platform used by companies as big as Netflix and Spotify continues to grow the division more recently added Salesforce as a primary customer Amazon says and it posted profit of 718 million on pay attention to this on 2.9 billion in sales that's a 135 jump in profit and 58 jump in sales compared with a year ago quarter the energy stores business I think eventually is likely to look very similar to this and even more importantly for the second straight quarter AWS earns Amazon more profit than its entire North American retail division keep in mind that was from 2016.
so it took a long time for that business to come to life look what Amazon stock did but of course if you look a few years before 2016 you can sort of see the same story too doubling and then tripling back in 2019 what did Elon say Elon predicts Tesla energy could be bigger than his EV business in 2022 Elon says pedal through the metal musk says battery storage will outstrip electric vehicle growth we actually see the energy storage business growing more like 150 to 200 percent a year faster than cars Faster by a lot must hold an online briefing after the release of the company's for quarter results I mean if I go back years ago yeah there was a time Apple like Services business we're going to give it no evaluation maybe 50 billion and now I'd say that's worth a trillion 1.2 trillion it's a big part of what happens in these transformational stories Microsoft gonna give no credit to the cloud business part of why that stock was a 10 bagger because of the cloud business so I think that's what happens in these transformational stories but as we talk about the haters hated it at 5 billion 10 billion a trillion 600 billion if they were you know draft experts they would have been negative on Brady come out of the 2000 draft sixth round Dan ions is definitely not talking about anyone that we would have in mind right I'm not sure exactly why there is a clown on my computer screen here um cherry picker for hire I don't know what this has to do with anything there's something wrong with my computer I think this is not what I'm looking for ah here we go Gordon Johnson is uh who I was looking for I mean he said sell Tesla stock at 18.22 at 51 at 100 at 137 sell Tesla stock always and of course eventually even a broken clock will be right for a brief moment although I don't think these are going to age well long term you know as we went through it obviously show uh retail or on Twitter you know a lot of criticism like what you know why why criticize much like what he's the richest person in the world he's a modern day Albert Einstein Thomas Edison which I agree like why why criticize him my view is just institutional investors were massively frustrated with what was going on and even though maybe listeners they're like who who cares day to day but institutional ambassadors are super important to the store and that was something to be communicated and I think as that was going on and now like I said I think that was a huge part of the Uber and a significant part of the sell-off that we saw take place in the latter part of 2022.
if you want to know what institutional investors are thinking about Tesla stock I think Dan Ives is a pretty good person to go to if I go to nasdaq.com it says that current institutional ownership when we look at esselstop is at almost 50 percent now this number is actually probably a little bit smaller because we had a few weird filings from some institutions for example this company that takes this which supposedly mostly invests in Bonds on behalf of European insurers but a humongous 171 million shares of Tesla stock and that would have made them supposedly 17 billion dollars in gains and they would have owned 40 billion dollars of Tesla stock which is roughly the number that Elon sold in the last 15 months or so I'm not sure exactly what happened but seems like maybe someone just added an extra zero event waiver making the filing with the SEC while this number may actually be a little bit smaller it's still going to be pretty high so institutions buying Tesla stock that is going to move the stock higher seven of every 10 institutional ambassadors wasn't on the radar stock got so cheap visual I mean like when you start to get to levels like let's just go back late December news gonna be a soft Q4 delivery number everyone thought okay why should this should start to trade toward our traditional automotive company sub 100 like at that point and we talked about I mean the rich award was probably that was like one of the more unique times maybe going back to sometimes in 2018 2019 that that we've seen yeah I remember when we were at about 100 almost daily Gary black was saying that Tesla stock is as cheap as it was back in 2020 March when everyone was sick and Tesla stock just doubled and then it just kept going up and up and up and up and up and up it has come down a little bit since then but it's still up 600 percent since then and in terms of catalysts what is interesting Gary black thinks it is looking similar to 2019 end of 2019 and you look at the price chart there was basically no better time almost to buy Tesla stock when at the end of 2019.
and yeah that's what Gary black thinks he is bullish right now short term relatively because of cyber truck and mega packs energy storage business I liked that video I'll put a link down to it in the pin comment below were you surprised by that move that they made that that crazy price cut they did earlier this year how I think it was a genius poker move that they needed to make because I think they recognized there was a price point if they cut to and they were able to and they could still do that with auto gross margins you know north of 20.
they could do that and they knew they met there was a level that would significantly accelerate demand and I look in that to it they needed to do it it's not just what's happening in China but in the U.S because this is you know I think it's always dangerous when you're the leader in a market by Miles I think Intel is a good example of that you could easily just write yourself out of things you know get comfortable feel like competition's not gonna ultimately come and get you and then look what happens right it goes back to like Ford 1919.
what happened by 1927. so I think these are all historical but I'd say like you know stories that I think Tessa must the board are very well aware and I think as long as we have Elon Musk within Tesla I don't think we really need to worry about Tesla becoming stale not innovating anymore not trying new things this is what I'm sort of afraid of if we have someone else you know interfering with Tesla and then we sort of force Elon out Tesla might become stale I don't want that just like I wouldn't want this that's to stop buying opportunity to go away soon vegetable Bay you just played right here by Elon Musk and my name is Matt poster
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