저자: MattPocius · 외국인
요약 보기
CNBC 출연자 Charmaster(Carter Worth 추정)가 테슬라에 대해 과거 매도/숏 권유 후 12월 말 매수로 돌아섰다가 이제 일부 익절 및 재숏을 언급한다는 점을 소개. 진행자는 테슬라 주가가 공매도 대비 높은 변동성과 옵션 거래량 집중 상태이며, 최근 반등은 과도하다고 보면서도 긍정 뉴스 부재가 상승 원인이라고 해석. 월가 추정치 대비 실적 상회, 머스크의 트위터 인수 영향 등을 언급. 시장 전반은 연말 하락분 회복 후 임계점에 있다고 보고 하락 편향을 유지하면서 장기적으로는 테슬라 주식을 달러 코스트 애버리징으로 매수할 계획을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
cnbc's charmaster said to buy Tesla stock roughly at 110 dollars and now he says to maybe even short it let's take a look at what he says now by the way uh only one video for today probably I have a little bit of a fever hopefully I feel better tomorrow one technician with a pretty good track record on Tesla is sounding caution Carter worth called the drops from June to November urging investors repeatedly to sell or go short he reversed course in late December before the recent run saying to nibble long remember when we talked about that now he says it's time to take some profits on the trade and maybe even short it again not a bad track record so far right sell sell sell sell and then long here where you buy okay except right here sell so if we are trading we certainly do not want to sell here so there is one last year I wouldn't say mistake because if you trade you will have bad trades eventually for sure a lot of the time so this is just mostly luck is this a coincidence well let's take a look at what he has to say if you trade and you make money good for you it's not something that I do but it is entertaining for me to look at it that's bringing Carter he is the CEO of worth charting so absolutely this caught our attention Carter and and why do I mean there's a difference between you know hey it's going to stop going up and hey it could fall precipitously what do you glean well I mean so to be fair right this is almost turned into just a gambling chip before we even talk about the charts gambling well I can someone generally say the same about active trading at least when we compare performance to S P 500 you end up losing even if you are an experienced professional I mean these people have good education probably pretty good IQs and sometimes questionable emotional intelligence but it is an entirely different thing to short the stock market because stock the stock market generally overall even bad stocks over a long period of time the trend is generally always up so if you are short and you are going against a long-term Trend that is dangerous and you better know exactly what you are doing if you short a stock especially Tesla stock to be fair sometimes shorts get it right ever by accident or by skill or a little bit of both for example Bill Miller explains on why he has been recently shorting Tesla stock adding that he shorted more today good for him right Tesla stock today is down 6.32 mostly because the markets are down overall EV stocks are down today however there is one detail that I did not tell you this guy is shorted Tesla stock on January 6.
Tesla stock was trading at 113 back then ah I feel a little bit better I feel like my fever is going away I don't feel as cold I don't know what it is what we know is of course you're talking about a stock that now is trading three million contracts a day and the options uh daily that's almost seven percent of all options traded according to CBOE data and we also know that if you think about the volume 100 200 million shares on on Friday 10 of the entire uh shares outstanding turned over and over the past six months the shares outstanding some 3.2 billion turned over three times it's just a wild ride and so I think it's the kind of thing where one has to have or try to have dexterity and hence this these judgments to buy it or sell it accordingly and look uh the first timing well it was nice to be short it wasn't great getting along at 138 it went down as low as 102.
now yes it did hit 177 and that's where we've flipped it around again but it just feels a little little bit crowded steep too far too fast news related if you will the strength of the past three four five days we are still seeing exceptionally high volume I think some of the people that then through this roller coaster just now and are seeing these gains so quickly they are saying oh maybe I don't want to be in Tesla this is too much so I'm getting out but also around here is when Elon acquired Twitter and the stock went down as Elon kept selling and kept making noise on Twitter for example on November 28th Elon said Apple has mostly stopped advertising on Twitter do they hate free speech in America we don't see Elon making tweets like this anymore so I think a lot of people also realizing oh yeah this Twitter noise I think perhaps uh yeah it's almost over doesn't seem as bad anymore and people are realizing okay maybe if I made a trade based on Tesla stock going down because of Twitter maybe now it is time to get back in So him saying that it's all news based I don't know a little bit of it is the lack of news no bad news from the earnings call no bad news from the earnings report no bad news in terms of Elon tweeting bad stuff on Twitter that would make everyone lose their minds it's not good news making Tesla's dog go up it's about lack of bad news making Tesla stock go up at least partially so I disagree that this rise was too fast I would say the fall was too fast and not appropriate of course Looking Back Now we can say that there are a few other reasons other than Twitter noise making Tesla stock go down here for example lower projected earnings and there's no more backlog really or not as much for some models how a little bit of a backlog in certain parts of a world but it's not as big as it was before so that certainly also contributes to stock being lower in other words it's on sale but there is a clear Trend with wall Street's estimates Tesla beats these estimates regularly for example you can see that in the beginning of 2022 Wall Street consensus was that Tesla is going to make 2.96 per share Tesla actually ended up making four dollars and seven cents per share beating the estimates by 37 and a half percent this is all despite the FED raising rates uh Factory being shut down boxing match between two countries an Elon Musk acquiring Twitter show me an analyst that was projecting in early 2022 that Elon Musk is going to go and acquire Twitter and then sell Tesla stock over and over and over and over again and therefore potentially not being as focused on Tesla and yet still Tesla bisbee's estimates sure and so now we have people looking at whether they should take the other side of this worried they're going to experience what you just talked about which is that the stock goes up another 30 percent right it's it's ever that's right so you've got people think about you've got people who've got a happy experience three or four good trades people who've ruined themselves got it wrong each time and yeah I don't really understand how some people can short Tesla like not recently but like years and years and years ago Tesla stock went up a lot more than 10x and how can you still be short it would be time to admit that it was a mistake to do it but some people just keep on doing the same thing and they just keep on losing money nothing I can do about that it presents us with a better stock price for us to load up on Tesla shares long term because long term these stores are going to be squeezed and it's it's why this is so treacherous but it has literally become the most active option and the most sort of widely filed to think that the options activity now exceeds that of the queues which of course is always sort of top spot anyway to my eye it's a rally to a difficult level and I think the player if you're long is to is to exit and with new money I would be short yeah and I'm just looking at this as a very high beta name I kind of take that I would maybe take that a step further and ask you about the broader Market you know we talked about are we going to kind of head over a cliff come January is it because we're talking so much about a Fed cut that the markets have suddenly reversed course and started to take off again what's remarkable is so where we're trading right now is where we're trading at the end of November which is to say we've effectively repaired all of the December laws and so the question is we're kind of on schnau and that's giving fuel or or our confidence to both the Bulls and the Bears and in many ways is it this week's data the earnings out of apple and and Google and Amazon that will inform the market or the fed or other data but we're we're at a critical juncture my bias remains that we are headed lower not higher that's what I was going to ask there's two camps there's the camp that says you know I love the rallies because I'm looking to get out and I and I want to sell these you know these opportunities basically the market is presenting and then there are those who think no we've already priced the worst of this and we just heard Margie Patel and others who think we can either avoid recession or it'll just be mild or we might have a soft landing and so in this case they think it's sort of you know clear sailing from here what are your thoughts and then there's another Camp which we should not forget people who understand oh yeah uh trading and guessing what my market is going to do yeah many people just sell it right at the bottom and then they buy right at the top so we just acknowledge that maybe we can't really time it precisely so we will just find a company that we think is sold at a fair price and then we'll just buy that and then we'll just wait for many years until the market figures out oh yeah that company was cheap it should be priced at a higher stock price yeah clear sailing seems tough uh I think it's probably tough selling or said differently even if and as the market goes higher it won't be easy right it will be belabored and and and heavy uh struggling it's not the kind of situation by my work where even if we are headed higher it's going to be something aggressive it would likely be fairly muted and again my thinking is that we've already moved quite a bit to the point where uh sellers are once again likely to return to the market instead of trying to time the market I will keep dollar cost averaging and buy more Tesla stock and this is the buying opportunity for Tesla stock explained by Elon Musk my name is mapposis like And subscribe if you haven't yet and I will see you in the next video thank you so much for watching hopefully fever goes away and I'll be back with more videos
Comments 0