저자: MattPocius · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 출연자들은 테슬라 주가가 단기 저점에 가까워졌고 장기적으로는 여전히 강력한 지위를 가진다고 보지만, 성장 둔화와 가격 인하로 점유율 하락은 불가피하다고 본다. [대니 아이브스 발언] 가격 인하 악재가 이미 대부분 반영돼 테슬라가 저점에 가까워졌다고 주장. 가격 인하 발표 당일 주가는 장중 약 5% 하락했다가 회복해 1% 미만 하락으로 마감, 이를 바닥 신호로 해석. [테슬라 전망 - 긍정] 향후 10~15년 약 4~5조 달러 규모 시장 기회, 테슬라가 EV 시장을 주도하며 경쟁사는 '임대료'를 지불하는 구도라는 주장. 완전자율주행(FSD) 3시간 17분 주행 영상을 근거로 도요타·벤츠 대비 기술 우위 강조. 장기적으로 경쟁자를 압도할 것이라는 견해. [가격 인하 해석] 1993년 필립모리스 가격 인하 사례를 언급하며, 시장 점유율 회복 시 주가가 회복된 전례로 설명. 단기 충격 후 장기 긍정 관점 유지. [크레이그 발언 - 부정] 테슬라를 자동차 섹터 전체 합계의 배수로 평가받는 과대평가 상태로 보고 매도 의견 제시. 다만 S&P500 대비 수익률이 부진했다는 평가를 받는 인물이라는 비판도 함께 제기됨. 테슬라 주가가 과거 매도 권고 가격보다 여전히 높다는 지적. [그렉 발언 - 점유율] 테슬라의 시장 점유율 하락은 불가피하며 문제는 속도라고 봄. 가격 인하는 북미 주력 차량에서 큰 문제 신호이며, 머스크의 트위터 인수가 기업 가치와 신뢰에 부담이라는 견해. 투자 기회는 테슬라 외 다른 종목에 더 있다고 판단. [머스크 발언 인용] 가격이 '당혹스러운 수준'까지 올랐으며 공급망·인플레이션 충격에 따른 인하라는 설명. 트위터 영향은 일시적 노이즈이며 지금이 매수 기회라는 입장. [트위터 영향과 금리 정책] 주가 하락의 약 70%가 트위터 요인이라는 진단. 2022년 위험자산 급락 후 연준 피벗·정책 전환 시 테슬라 등 기술주 반등 가능성 언급. [포드 비교] 포드 머스탱 마하-E는 수익성 악화, 주행거리·가속·가격 면에서 테슬라 모델Y보다 열위라는 시승 평가. 포드가 내연기관 차량을 파는 것이 경쟁 전략의 한계라고 주장. [진행자 결론] 테슬라를 장기 보유 중이며 전체 포트폴리오를 테슬라 중심으로 구성한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
and I think today is a good example a lot of bad news big thing you have 20 price Cuts Armageddon stocks down two percent a well respected Wall Street analyst Dan Ives is saying that basically all the bad news is in for Tesla stock meaning a likely bottom for Tesla stock Dan is actually pretty good he is one of the better analysts he is not ranking low and he has beat the market by 2.3 percent which is very difficult to do and then Tesla announced the price cuts the stock did drop something like five percent but then it recovered and ended up only less than one percent down so let's see what then I said about Tesla stock on TV fork in the road because on one hand you have what I view as the most transformational company potentially you know in the Market along with apple But ultimately in terms of what we saw with musk in the Twitter situation it's been a huge overhang in the stock but but then you look at the opportunity I mean we're talking four or five trillion of potential Market opportunity over the next 10 15 years that is it's still Tesla's world and everyone else paying rent in terms of EV but competitions come from all angles and in this risk off Market you've seen cracks after the Cinderella story that's why they're cutting prices demands changing and that's why from us it's time to navigate the plan through the storm and not have a Ted Striker moment I believe a Tesla is actually in a very good position right now Gary here is saying that perhaps the most famous price cut was when Philip Morris cut prices by 20 he actually had a sell rating on the company because the company was losing market share that day the company lost 26 of its value pushing the entire stock market down after the price got Gary event to a buy rating on the premise that the company would regain its lost share which ended up happening so this is when the price Could Happen 1993 April and you can see what happened later I agree with Gary on this one long term I believe this is actually a pretty good thing for Tesla Tesla is very well positioned to absolutely obliterate all of the competition and Craig I know that you're more embarrassed on Tesla what are you honing in on when you look at the outlook for Tesla so I've seen Tesla's egregiously overvalued over the last couple years valued at a multiple of the rest of the automotive sector combined and there's nothing that they have that you know names like Toyota or Daimler or others don't have themselves how can he say that Toyota has everything that Tesla has show me a Toyota that can do this this is three hours and 17 minutes of Tesla full self-driving show me a Toyota or a Mercedes that can do this show me I can't find any I will not even go into a superchargers but Tesla has built out and I will definitely not mention the fact that Toyota does not have a capability currently to produce about 2 million EVS which Tesla sort of already has so when I look over the next couple years I look at a decelerating growth for Tesla obviously they're looking to counteract that by cutting prices and they'll take it on the margin while other people are really just seeing their new products take off and supplementing the product portfolio with exciting new brands um and and pretty compelling products that are that are finding their way into consumers hands so you know Tesla's got real competition um they they deserve a lot of credit for for creating the market but um you know on a relative valuation basis there's much better places to put money and uh you know that's uh that's a difficult thing for evaluation and testing wherever you are going to put your money do not give that money to Craig he underperformed the market you are better off literally putting money into S P 500 than giving it to him if you just put the money into S P 500 you will make 1.7 percent more without doing absolutely anything dude Craig's credit he did say bite Tesla stock uh a long time ago when it was almost fourteen dollars but then he said sell Tesla stock uh at 32 dollars and then he didn't say bye and Tesla stock is still well above the last time he said sell 52 dollars so yeah I would not listen to Craig especially when it comes to Tesla stock Greg I want to stay with you there and just follow up on the decelerating growth that you mentioned do you believe that that causes a rift within the market share that Tesla holds on to well Tesla's market share is obviously going to fall there's no question it's going to fall the question is how fast how soon um you know it's uh different markets gonna going to move at different rates and you know they're fighting you know when you come out with a 20 price cut in one day on one of your your Mainline vehicles for for North American markets that is a big deal that means there are big problems to solve and uh musk is looking to um you know rectify the situation this this loss of whatever it was 200 billion dollars in in wealth is is pretty shocking and uh you know he's obviously looking to stabilize that but he has uh you know a massive boat anchor to deal with with uh Twitter I mean he really probably does feel like an absolute twit to use uh addiction that he would know for uh for his purchase given that it's the distraction from Twitter that's really uh brought in the valuation uh both uh you know at Tesla and the confidence in Iman musk overall here's what Elon Musa repeatedly about pricing he has said it is embarrassing Elon said we have raised our prices quite a few times they are frankly at embarrassing levels but we have also had a lot of supply chain and production shocks and we have got crazy inflation so if you were paying attention then you of course expected these price cuts and Twitter that's just temporary noise it is presenting us a buying opportunity now if you are not accumulating then I feel bad for you but I am buying as much Tesla stock as I possibly can then staying with you for a hot second you said 70 percent of the sell-off uh is Twitter driven and so what percent of that would you kind of apply towards what we saw more broadly within the fed's policy pathway and once we have a pivot or some type of pause or at least change in tenor from the fed and the market latches on to that then what does that mean for Tesla shares yeah well first for risk assets as we all know 2022 was a horror show Friday the 13th you know just an absolute disaster because of what you saw in multiple selling off risk assets basically heading for the elevator Tesla that's really a poster child if you think about from a multiple perspective you know as Craig talks about it's the divisive do you treat as an automotive company we view as disruptive Tech technology that's how we value it but that's why it's an emotional bull bear story I believe you start to now see risk assets Tech Tesla you start to ultimately see these names really rally and I think today is a good example a lot of bad news baked and you have a 20 price Cuts Armageddon stocks down two percent that was so very well put Armageddon everywhere but the stock that day did not even drop one full percent it dropped about five percent initially but then it recovered what does that mean it's either of a bottom or Tesla or everyone was already expecting the price cuts which I don't think people were expecting price cuts that deep everyone was expecting price because but that high I don't think so so to me it means either it is not as bad as it sounds or we are approaching the bottom for Tesla stock also check this out this is a beautiful drawing here and design great products produce a scale reduce cost reduce price increase total addressable market then we have a network effect and then also we increased vertical integration we create better ways to produce such as Giga castings as an example structural battery packs 4680 batteries we remove parts I mean Elon pushes it so far that he literally reinvented the wheel well the steering wheel that is it's still the best name in the space as far as market share their their Pioneer status um having done all the all the work all the missionary work to develop the market so they clearly have you know the most experience and the largest Fleet but others are benefiting from that and others will have a much more cost effective ride um and you know that means there's probably much better investment opportunities for the next couple years as we as we see the space continue to evolve and continue to expand and you know we just think that people are probably better off not not buying Tesla you know looking at some of these other names yeah well I don't really know about that Ford no longer making any profit on a Mustang my key this was in June of 2022 look at Ford my key right here long range SUV which IRS does not call an SUV Bible Way for whatever reason I'm not really sure the range is 310 miles 6.1 seconds zero to 60 only and you can see Tesla Model y does that in 4.8 it has more range also and the Ford is rear wheel drive only and is more expensive than the Tesla now it does get the tax credit but you look at the dollar cost for the range that you are getting and you can clearly see it's quite a bit more expensive we are not even talking about the features and how it feels inside and the handling I wasn't a Ford Maki and it just didn't it just didn't feel that nice as Teslas do I mean it's not a terrible car it's okay but you get in the Tesla's like whoa this is amazing when I wasn't a Ford I was like uh it was a little bit of a letdown I was expecting more I didn't like them much and we now Ford is losing money when they sell these Tesla we definitely know is going to be making money when they sell their vehicle so how is this competition going to compete with Tesla exactly by trying to sell internal combustion engine Vehicles is probably the answer and these are 48 reasons why I only own Tesla's document stock portfolio
Comments 0