저자: MattPocius · 외국인
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머스크가 트위터 현금 부족(월 약 30억달러 현금유출 추정)으로 테슬라 주식을 매도 중이며, 트위터 비용 절감과 광고주 확보로 내년 현금흐름 손익분기 근접을 기대. 테슬라는 장기적으로 이익 성장으로 주가 상승 전망이나 단기 변동성 큼. 머스크가 매도를 멈출 시점에 대한 힌트도 언급.
다듬은 글
Elon Musk indirectly explained why he has been selling Tesla's stock recently and he gives us a hint at the date of when he will possibly stop selling Tesla stock so let's Dive In the because of the nature of this transaction uh where there's 12 and a half billion dollars of debt and the Fed rate has been going crazy um there's on the order of a billion and a half ish of debt so saying that's required so we're talking about like uh net cash outflow if you didn't make any changes of on the order of like six six and a half billion next year this is why Elon Musk has been talking about rates you see that that Twitter has is very large and I guess it makes sense why Elon blames High interest rates when he talks about Tesla stock interest rates are high therefore Twitter Twitter is that is very hard to service and therefore he has to sell Tesla stock it makes more sense than than you put it in that context right uh Revenue probably tracking to three so that's like a negative cash flow situation of three billion dollars a year not good yeah that's a lot of money but just three billion dollars that's just how much Elon sold off of Tesla stock recently a lot of money uh since Twitter has one billion in cash so that's why I spent the last five weeks cutting costs like crazy and selling Tesla stock of course right and we know that Elon Musk really believes there's going to be a very bad recession so he wants to be on the side of caution so he probably wants to build up his cash reserves to a point where it's more than really necessary just in case the recession lasts for a very long time and everything just collapses for multiple years I think we also got to get the advertisers yeah yeah we do need to get the advertisers um but the like I said I've I've spoken to a number of the advertisers they're they're they're requests are not uh fuzzy or or irrational or anything they're like quite reasonable this is very good to hear that Elon is talking to advertisers Twitter's Revenue that means would or should get back to higher levels definitely a positive overall like just show us an Roi that makes sense and I'm like yes I agree if I were in that position I would also want an Roi that makes sense especially when when headed into difficult Economic Times where these questions are asked a lot more than in prosperous times in prosperous times there is plenty of budget for advertising and you can you can get away with uh unclear Roi but when times are tough then then the hard questions of return on investment are asked and when you do not have a clear answer then advertisers don't want to advertise because they're being sane very good point here and speaking of Roi when I look at Tesla's earnings I like the earnings I mostly look at the earnings and I am thinking about what is the price of Tesla stock going to be 10 years from now and I like what I see because the earnings are going up Tesla stock price of course short term is very volatile can move up and down a lot that just the norm of holding a stock like Tesla that's the main issue so uh this is important so now with the the changes that we're making here on uh massively reducing the burn rate um and uh building subscriber Revenue I now think that Twitter will in fact be okay next year this is very good news we want to hear that because Tesla stock has been a piggy bank for Twitter if you don't want that to continue we want Twitter to be profitable it's almost like you know for Tesla stock for the price of Tesla stock short term at least profitability of Twitter actually matters more than profitability of Tesla literally I mean why else would oh there are many reasons but why else would Tesla's stock price keep going down while earnings are growing substantially many reasons of course but you got to ask yourself that question I think we will be about hopefully it's for roughly cash flow break even that's what I expect for next year now we do have to take into consideration what is known a phenomena that is known as elon's Time full self-driving coming in 2020 2021 2022 sometime before 20 30 right so don't get your hopes just up but it's looking it's sounding good but this this won't be quite this will be difficult but but I think that's that's where what will happen is roughly cash flow break even as opposed to minus three billion ish uh on on worth one billion of cash which would be therefore dead um so that's uh the reason for my actions that they may seem sometimes uh spurious or uh odd or whatever is because this is not we have an emergency fire drill in our hands that's the reason not because uh I am like naturally capricious or at least aspirationally I'm not naturally capricious this makes a whole lot a lot of sense now Elon is speaking specifically about Twitter not about Tesla but this makes a whole bunch of sense although some of the political tweets may not be helping Elon overall but I understand where he is coming from I personally I like tweets where Elon just retweets for example he retweeted uh Twitter files the popcorn Emoji something like that I really liked that tweet personally I like threes like that instead of tweets like he said prosecute so and so that's quite strong now if you retweet a thread that would imply that's the outcome that should happen I think that accomplishes the goal still without any of the backlash and Elon of course learns very quickly and this is what I used like about Elon so much you know if so many other people they make mistakes and they never admit that they made the mistake Elon can change his mind so quickly he adapts and he can u-turn when you least expect him to do so this is exactly what has made Elon so successful at Tesla and SpaceX most companies are literally going to space well Tesla is going to finance expeditions to Mars and colonizing Mars as SpaceX will too but Tesla will be a big part of it that's when Elon will actually start selling Tesla stock so uh but but if if you sort of if you say you're looking at it from my standpoint and you're saying okay wow um this company is is like like basically you're in a plane that is headed towards the ground at high speed uh with the engines on fire and the controls don't work wow I used I use I use the same analogy at comma oh yeah going downhill that's not downhill whoa that's uh mild to say going down in an airplane with engines on fire that's what Twitter is let's give Elon a little bit of slack here Elon is in an extremely tough situation this for me personally long terms is bullish for Tesla stock eventually I believe Elon will stop selling Tesla stock but we'll see hopefully elon's time this time is accurate I wouldn't keep my hopes High though which would present us another buying opportunity these are 48 reasons why I only hold Tesla stock in my style portfolio my name is malpo just like subscribe if you haven't yet and I will see you in the next video thank you so much for watching
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