저자: MikeSaul · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인 선물 상장에 대해 거품 붕괴 위험을 경고하며 직접 참여는 보류, 증시는 연말까지 추가 상승 가능성을 보나 눌림 또는 횡보 가능성도 함께 열어둠. [비트코인 선물] 비트코인 선물이 월요일부터 거래 시작 예정이며 인터랙티브 브로커스 측은 증거금 50%, 공매도 불가 방침이라고 전해짐. 발언자는 이를 대규모 투자자 손실을 부르는 사기성 요소로 보는 의견을 인용함. 본인은 이 자산이 연말 이전 대규모 부의 소멸(wipeout)을 일으킬 것으로 봄. 소셜미디어 확산으로 정보 전달이 빨라져 과거 튤립 버블보다 피해가 클 수 있다고 주장. 비트코인 상승 여부에 대한 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않는다고 명시. 선물 거래는 당분간 관망하며 거래 양상을 확인한 뒤 판단할 계획. 비트코인 과열이 주식시장 조정(약세장)으로 이어질 가능성도 언급. [증시 전망] 최근 조정 이후 지수가 다시 상단을 시도하는 흐름으로 보임. 기존의 연말 랠리 기대와 달리 조정 없이 바로 상승할 가능성도 제기. 나스닥은 반도체 약세에도 비교적 양호하고 러셀2000 등 소형주는 상대적으로 부진. [섹터·종목] 반도체는 50일 이동평균선 근처에서 지지 여부를 확인해야 하는 경계 구간으로 봄. 마이크론은 강하게 상승한 뒤 20일선 부근에서 반전 신호가 나와 주시 필요. 은행주와 바이오주는 대체로 횡보 또는 완만한 상승 흐름. 아마존·애플·알파벳은 패턴이 양호한 편이나 공매도 신호는 없음. 넷플릭스는 상대적으로 약하지만 숏 신호는 없다고 봄. 금은 계절적 강세 구간 진입 가능성 언급, 은은 7월 저점 재시험 가능성. 유가(USO)는 응축 후 방향 확인 필요. [이번 주 관심 종목] PDD는 박스권 상단 돌파 시 75 부근 목표. SYNT(Syntel)는 42~27 갭 메움 가능성을 언급하며 약 34.5 부근이 중간 목표이나 돌파 확인 후 진입 강조. [조건·리스크] 모든 진입은 패턴 돌파와 확인 후에만 하고 손절선을 미리 설정할 것을 강조. 방향성 확신보다 차트 확인 중심의 접근을 권장.
다듬은 글
hey it's Michael saw what everybody calls me tiny so you can too in this video is here comes Bitcoin futures plus the move into the end of the year and two stocks to watch this is stock market analysis for the week of December 11th 2017 Happy Hanukkah if you are celebrating this week if you would like to receive intro week updates from me all you have to do is go to WWE tag the markets calm putting your first name and your best email address then click the join the list button then go to the email you used to sign up look for an email from me with a link in it you got to click that link to confirm that it was actually you and not some evil bot that went around and added your name and then you will start receiving intro week updates for me so the big topic is Bitcoin why well Bitcoin futures are going to be starting to trade as of Monday morning I believe it is I am NOT getting very deep into the details because like I have said in previous videos I am NOT interested in these until the dust settles okay the the owner or the chair of interactive brokers I don't know what his official title is like again I don't really care but he came out and said that they are going to have 50% margins on Bitcoin and they're not going to allow you to short it so he thinks it's a big scam is gonna cost thousands of thousands of people their life savings or whatever he said you can look them up and and read about it and if you don't know my opinion already I say I'll say it again I think this will be one of the biggest wealth wipeouts in history I think people will get destroyed trying to bet on Bitcoin I don't doesn't mean that you can't make sure turn money with it it doesn't mean that the blockchain is fake or that other cryptos won't eventually be their own asset class or a training vehicle whatever you want to call it I just think that the hype around Bitcoin is as tremendous as spin around other manias and I believe now with the fact that information is traveling so fast and it's so widely accessible thanks to those interwebs I believe that it's going to really hit a lot of people very hard okay that's nothing has nothing to do with my short-term prediction of where it's going I believe the guy from interactive poker said it's gonna grow a hundred thousand for us whatever okay I don't make prognostications on any of that stuff I do believe it's anything I don't know if that's the right word but anyway I'm not making guesses on where it's going to go I just believe that the hype around it you see it all over Facebook you see it all over everywhere and you know tulip mania which resulted in a huge decimation of wealth didn't have the Internet okay even the internet stock mania did not have the infinite like we have it now did not have the Facebook's and the social me may I get bulletin boards and stuff like that but they didn't have the social aspect like we have now so in my opinion this is gonna be a huge huge huge wipeout of wealth I could it trigger a stock market bear market yeah that's something that hasn't really been talked about but I would not put it past being the reason that some institutions I mean I love when I read all the institutions are now involved yeah okay they were they're always involved okay they're they have to be involved I don't know all they you have to answer to why they missed it if it does take off does it mean that they that they took most of their assets under management and plowed it into cryptocurrency come on all right yeah there are crypto based farms in crypto mate but and whether they survive or not it is not really issue the issue is that you know it's just my opinion that this will be in the end it will be a huge wipeout because I believe as always the public will get in when it is too late they won't be able to sell they won't think of selling etc I also read a great article on Bitcoin a /script though saying that after this quote-unquote correction or crash if it's gonna it's such a you know just you bet term is used so just casually right these days but if that were to happen what rose out of the ashes would be the Kryptos that would really make the generation of wealth that everybody's talked about okay a lot of people now are totally oh you know all their friends are getting rich and all them all the accounts that will opened up a coin base and all that whatever I am NOT going near these futures at least until the beginning of the year I want to take a look at how they are trading and then I want to make my decisions after that okay so that's my deal with Bitcoin I get a lot of emails on it I get a lot of hate emails on it while I am I even talking about it well you have to talk about it it's being talked about as the blockchain is being talked about as replacing banking one day will it happen I don't think so but it's here right it's part of the financial markets more accounts now or coinbase than a Charles Schwab to trade stocks right so it's there it's out there and it really it should have our attention at least to see how it affects the equity markets and yeah you know all of a sudden something happens and somebody says oh you know nobody would have ever thought that cryptocurrency could affect the equity markets right so better to be prepared and better to be a watchful of something like that and to just ignore it Mike Swanson did a great piece I believe it was last week or the week before how the Bitcoin mania is correlating very very well with the stock the way the stock markets moving all right so just something to think about now right let's move on let's talk about the market so after the pullback we saw the previous week after popping up and pulling back it looks like we're right set to try to once again for those of you who have been listening to me you know that I have been looking for a pullback to lead to an end-of-year rally well we don't have that much time left okay so we may not get the pullback instead we make oil up and try to bust out I do not think this is the place to go short I do not think this is the place to give up on the Long's however as always as we approach new highs I am a big believer in trailing stops and locking profits if you want to take some off that's fine as well but right now I believe this pattern suggests we are going to be going higher into the end of year does that mean right into the the tippy-top nd I believe the 31st yes is a Sunday so now I'm right into the what would that be the 29th we're gonna go straight up into the 29th which would be the Friday but the last trading day of the year that doesn't have to happen a lot of times we'll go sideways into the end of the year but I think from here we have at least one more push higher whether that comes beef with after a pullback sorry after a pullback or right for miss Coyle remains to be seen could this being a down be up and then a little correction may be done with 20 here maybe that's the buying opportunity yes perhaps that's why I like to draw brackets and trend lines whenever possible and look for confirmation to what I am seeing not just sitting there and trying to guess not just sitting man saying well I think we're gonna go higher so let's just buy in anyway I'd rather wait be a little bit late and wait for the confirmation Nasdaq looks similar Russell is lagging but all you know didn't really get a that big of a bounce but also doesn't right now look like a sell signal mid caps and the Diamonds which I don't care about they look like the S&P let's look at some sectors semiconductors yes semiconductors are definitely a fly in the ointment here is that them even right weird I don't even know I'm saying all these words and phrases I'm not even 100% sure on but I don't like this we've so at the 50-day moving average all right so if you look at the video it kind of looks the same except it didn't reverse at the 50-day so is this a little pause before it goes down and retest 180 or actually breaks that definitely bears watching he is Intel back down of the 50-day moving average doesn't hold and start moving back up to the upside his cloud tank are still sloppy but notice it's still above its 200 below its 50 it's like in-between here so we have to pay attention for that already looked at Intel look like a micron yes a micron came up into the 20 right right right after 50 boom that's a pretty big move here 20% more than 20% flush now you got this little reversal at the 20 EMA something to definitely watch here's the banks banks look like they want to try higher his Bank of America is JP Morgan looks like the S&P 500 his Citigroup is Goldman okay which I know is a technically a broker dealer off but really you can consider it a bank is the XPD like his Morgan looks okay his like Mason starting to try to move his biotechs so the biotechs are more sideways than anything he is Gilead right at the 200-day moving average can it launch from here his Biogen so Biogen had the bracket came out of the bracket then paused now it looks like it may be trying to move see if it could come back up and maybe try to test 350 how about the glamour stocks we like to look at his Amazon yeah 1200 the reversal right about 400 held the 20ma see what its gonna do from here here's Apple still looks ok his alphabet still looks ok I mean these are the cleanest patterns but there's nothing screaming short short short is Netflix we Netflix isn't looking as as good as the others or it's between below the 50 in the 20 but I don't really have a short signal on and either how about the Facebook and Facebook looks like it may want to retest eyes up there caterpillar looks like it could be on a test of highs Giardia is on a testifies extended here both these stocks are extending here so I would not be surprised if they got a pullback / pause before they started moving bonds keep hearing about the bond market rally that's coming maybe it is maybe this is just some huge launch pad right now I don't have a signal to go long in the TLT here's GLD so his gold which started to show some weakness let's look at silver - were looking at cell V while we're at it yep and silver looks like it wants to retest those July lows at a minimum and gold we're in a seasonal bullish tendency for gold into the runs down into the Chinese New Year and you can see here 118 if that gives white this could get a quick move down to the high 114 how about oil yeah so oil acting okay is the United States oil fund USO this is what I use for it it's easier than pulling up the futures and watching all that stuff so you can see here we have kind of a coil but it's a little too sharp so it may need to fatten out like I call it a little bit before it's ready to go but again I don't see a short signal here I skip the miners but you can see the miners pivot it off the 50-day and now they're down here watch to see to watch to see if 21 holds my friend Mike Swanson he always likes to say people really don't get interested in the gold miners until they're over 24 we're definitely not over 24 here so recap we're either going to pull back first or get this out of this coil but I do believe we will see higher prices into the end of the year again it doesn't mean we move straight up into December 29th Nasdaq is lagging thanks to the semiconductors but not that bad you look at the small caps they're lagging a bit more okay to stocks to watch this week I like one more thing Bitcoin futures I am NOT I'm interested in watching them absolutely okay so expect some intra week update this week on my first feelings of them but I am not interested in getting involved I don't think there's any metal going to be given out to the first adopters who are training the Bitcoin futures there's a lot of talk about them will it dampen the volatility we've seen some volatility the last couple of days crazy swings in my opinion in the end Bitcoin will eventually be responsible for wiping out a lot of people's accounts a lot of people's wealth and money alright but don't have a timeframe on that let's look at two stocks to watch this week the first one is insolent corporation P o DD nice coil here if it breaks out look for this to try to head towards 75 you know where you're wrong if it goes out the other end of the coil that's why I love these patterns because you enter on a break you put a stop under it there you go and then here's Syntel sit tells a little different I gotta squish this one up a little bit so Syntel has been weak we grab my where are you where are you tools tools so why would I that would make too much sense all right so Syntel has this nice looking pattern right here and if this could launch off of this then we are looking to get into this big gap which there's a lot of room from 42 down to 27 so halfway for that what's that that's about 15 points halfway about that would be right around here 34 and a half okay so it has to break first right always wait for the break what's your opinion on Bitcoin futures are you gonna trade them let me know with comments below the video don't forget to give me a thumbs up it helps me move up the rankings have a great trading week sign up for the list if you want entry week updates and if you go to be trading the Bitcoin futures stay safe and as always good luck talk to you soon you
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