저자: MikeSaul · 외국인
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결론: 단기 조정은 있을 수 있으나 S&P500은 신고점 부근에서 상승추세가 유지되며, 다우 신고점 돌파 전까지 상승 쪽을 우호적으로 본다. 시장 전반: S&P500이 신고점 후 4일 주(추석 주) 동안 조정을 받아 20일선 부근까지 밀렸다. 이전 조정폭 대비 약 2배 길이의 추가 하락이 나온다면 50일선 부근이 다음 지지선으로 언급됐다. 지수 및 기술적 지표: 이동평균선이 우상향으로 강하고 내부지표도 양호하다고 평가했다. 다우는 상대강도가 S&P보다 나아 보이나 크게 중요하지 않다고 했다. 나스닥은 20일선 하회 후 50일선이 다음 지지로 제시됐다. 러셀2000은 50일선 확인이 필요하다고 봤다. 섹터: 반도체 지수는 여전히 지저분하며 시장 반등을 제약하고 있다고 평가했다. 인텔은 46달러 이탈 시 42달러까지 열려 있다고 봤다. 금융주: 골드만삭스 등 은행주는 200일선과 250일선 사이에서 등락 중이며, 인터랙티브브로커스는 59달러 이탈 시 55달러 부근까지 열린다고 봤다. 증권사 지수는 70 이탈 시 59~60을 언급했다. 바이오: 바이오 섹터는 강세를 유지 중이나 일부 종목은 조정 중이다. 빅테크: 아마존은 20일선 방어 중이며 하락 시 149 부근 테스트 가능성을 언급했다. 알파벳과 넷플릭스는 지저분한 흐름이다. 테슬라는 240 이탈 시 215 부근까지 여지가 있다고 했다. 나이키: 콜린 캐퍼닉 광고 논란에도 기술적으로 큰 무너짐은 없으며, 마케팅 측면에서 긍정적이라는 견해를 밝혔다. 단기 실적 영향은 있을 수 있으나 펀더멘털이 유지되면 급락 가능성은 낮다고 봤다. 금리·원자재: 채권은 횡보 박스권 이탈 방향이 불확실하다고 보며, 금리 방향 예측은 futile하다고 했다. 원유는 7월 고점 부근에서 버티는 중이다. 금은 78.6달러 이후 반등 중이며, 다음 하락 시 더 낮아져 전저점 테스트 가능성을 언급했다. 리스크: 대통령 탄핵 논의 등 정치 이슈는 단기 변동성을 낳을 수 있으나 시장을 꺾기엔 강한 충격이 필요하다고 봤다. 계절성(Rosh Hashanah 매도, Yom Kippur 매수) 참고 언급이 있었다. 관심 종목: 주식 한 종목(제너릭 홀딩스 계열, 정확한 명칭 불명확)은 파워 트라이앵글 돌파 시 60 방향 상승을 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 후 신고점 경신을 기대하는 강세 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hey it's Michael Saul but everybody calls me tiny in this video is what's next for Tesla Nike in the market plus happy new year and a stock to watch this week this is stock market analysis for the week of September 10th 2018 happy Rosh Hashanah to my Hebrew brethren and sistren it's not even a word alright if you would like to receive intrigue updates go to WWE tag markets calm putting your first name and best email address follow the instruction confirm that it was you that actually put in the information and you will be on the distribution list for the intro week updates join the facebook group at facebook.com slash groups / attack for markets if you like what you hear give me a thumbs up and leave a comment and to never miss a video when one is put on this channel click subscribe and then smash that bell I love when they say smash it and smash the bell in order to receive updates ok so first things first the market the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs week and a half ago and then started to pull back remember this week was only a four-day week the course of Labor Day last week's video I did say I was looking for us to probably pull back a little bit more that's what we did we went down to the 20m pay also right at the top of the previous highs that we broke above so is that all she wrote on the pullback well it could be because first of all we have an inverted hammer here so we want to watch the highs from Friday to see if that gets taken out to the upside and we've pulled back a pretty okay amount comparatively right obviously it's I said it wasn't gonna be a I doubt it would be a big pullback but if you could see whoops I just hate when I start doing this but hang on I'll just make a copy and go here you can see it's about the same as that one which is about the same as that one and then okay this one is probably let's see twice the size right just about twice the size so what we can look for is if this isn't all she wrote if we're looking at a symmetrically moving mark in a symmetrically harmonical market I guess you could call it then we would probably look for something about twice as long here maybe go down to here which would be just below the 50-day moving average and that's fine - that's not a big dip or anything like that I'm not looking for a new BAM market or a new correction or no pullback I think we have higher prices to be seen at least until the Dow hits new all-time highs and probably even higher than that okay yeah I am pretty perma bullish here because the market remains strong and there is nothing technically that is saying hey it's time to worry it's nothing here saying that doesn't mean we can't pull back okay that that's not what that means but I mean look at the moving averages are nice and strong to the upside look at the trend and that's one way to to watch the trend right look at the trend beautiful pulling back pulling back pulling back and the buyers continue to come in yeah I know they may impeach our president and yeah there's a lot of talk about this and that and who's disgruntled here and the trade wars there and what's going on but the market climbs the wall of worry and remember that okay and nothing here is saying hey we're in trouble now if President Trump were to get impeached or they would try to impeach and whatever would that cause short-term volatility in my opinion yes it would all right but in the end it's gonna take something really harsh to break this here all right we're acting very nice the internal indicators are acting very well they're strong they're supporting this I just don't see a reason now I did mention the happy the happy Rosh Hashanah the Shana Tova whatever you want to say it right and there is a seasoned sell Rosh Hashanah buy Yom Kippur and that's one of the reasons why I think we may pull back a little bit more now with seasonal trends for those of you who are new to my video I don't use them as in stone timing mechanisms that's not what I do what I do with it is I use it as a background and right now we could see this is just a small pullback right to the 20 ma we know where we are correct in thinking this pullback is over if we take our Friday sighs but if not it's always good to map out where we could continue to go down and my first stop would be the 50-day where the 50-day is right we don't have to go through that but you could see we push through that 50-day without too much trouble sometimes right sometimes we we stop before it so moving average is it just reference lines a lot of people are well you know you said it was gonna hold the twine no I never said that I said we're looking at the 24 reasons for support sorry oh we're looking at another moving average two resistance above it doesn't mean it's gonna hold that and what does that sound like I'm on the fence yeah maybe but I really don't care alright there is no perfection in technical analysis that just isn't alright you use reference points and you stack the odds in your favor and then you measure the risk/reward and see if it's worth putting a trade on okay all right little hyped up nap apologies I'll calm down now and get off your soapbox okay so the Dow still hanging around this line see if it could bust though I like the way it's coiling it's a showing a little bit better relative strength than the SP again don't really care that much about the Dow compared to the S&P here's the NASDAQ through the 20 looks like the 50-day is next for that here's the Russell also pulling back watch the 50-day there if we don't confirm about see and here's the mid-caps which is a nice little tight flag there here's the semiconductors there we go somebody doctors still sloppy still sloppy his kl8 tank arc and a Thursday and Friday it was better but still down okay so this is nasty and it's just sloppy here and it's holding the semiconductors back here's the video if I could spell it right that would always be great pulling back off of new highs down to the 20 EMA how about Intel yeah Intel boy until it looks like if it loses 46 it could make a quick trip down to 42 now again that's not a huge move point wise compared to some other stocks but for Intel that's a pretty decent sized move I mean it's down from nearly 458 down to 46 that's you know better than a 20% decline here so someone even say Intel's in a quote unquote bear market right but anyway watch 46 because it looks like it's setting up for a potential for a potential support test thanks you know still consolidating here his Bank of America is still in its try me pushed out a little bit but for the most part it's still in that coil here's JP Morgan his Citigroup acting the weaker of the bunch okay but JP Morgan bank of America they looking okay how about like an 11 trust watch that 200-day moving average or Zion alright then you got goldman sachs so goldman sachs playing ping-pong between 250 and the 200-day moving average see what gives up first how about Interactive Brokers yeah director brokers tried to push down but could it gotta really watch this line in the sand he if it gives up his 59 it could make for a quick trip down to the 55 area what about the broker-dealer index which interacted his part of here kind of similar it looked like it could be a possible double bottom but instead if this breaks to 70 watch for a quick move down 2 to 59 to 60 how about the biotech so he's still acting nice and strong Wow they pull him back to I they're pulling back a little bit he is Gilead right he is Biogen his M Jen I am Jen LK watch the 50-day moving average let's look at some glamour stocks Amazon got cracked Wednesday and Thursday but held the 20 ma he is the suck book and we talked about bezerk book going lower that's what it's Dylan looks like it wants to retest these March lows and amen down here at 149 don't forget our good friend Paul shots he says that this high will not be taken out for years this is a multi-year high here on Facebook will see right when he's the first one to admit when he's wrong by the way but so far so good it looks like after this gap down talked about this pattern setting up wasn't technically a bad flag cause it's inside of range but I'm a nice follow-through to the downside here how about the alphabet yeah sloppy sloppy tried to push up came back down you want to watch this 11:50 here the Netflix yeah also sloppy okay and Tesla so mr.
musk not going public you're not going private after all but I think that maybe in the middle last weeks there's this week's news is that he smoked a joint and drank some whiskey with Joe Rogan on a podcast and people are losing their mind on it I mean I don't know is the under SEC investigation I don't know not wishing it on or anything like that but it seems to be a foregone conclusion based on his antics and based on the talk about going private and all that it's very sloppy here if you want to trade it in today I guess where you can really define micro risks but on a swing trade basis I don't know I can't I can't see it here I don't see any advantage either way right here but it does look like if it can break down below this 240 level I mean there's a little bit of room to run down to the 215 area so just keep your eye on Tesla if you want but also there's other fish in the sea knife it's saying you have to focus just on Tesla what about Nike right so Nike which had the Colin Kaepernick Colin Kaepernick scandal for lack of a better word so what happened so they decided to sign Colin Kaepernick and his ad you know give up everything sacrifice everything I don't whatever it is I don't know and I really don't care um you know I like to stay out of politics but I think it's shameful that football players kneel national anthem I just do yes it's there right I understand that that is why we are the greatest country in the world and that's why they're not getting arrested for it okay it is they're ready to take a knee all right but that doesn't mean that those that do take a knee during our national anthem are not in / in someone's opinion that someone being me and a lot of people and if you disagree that's fine that's your opinion okay we're all entitled that it's their their right to kneel it's my right to have an opinion on them okay all protected under that First Amendment and that's what makes the us the greatest country in the world great again all right anyway now really off my soapbox and talking about the stock what do I think well I think that first of all I think this is one of the most amazing marketing plays definitely for this year I don't know about all time but definitely for this year it's a great marketing move for Nike you see people burning their clothes and / I understand I do with I do in Nike because they fit me the best I have a stupid big wide foot I'm a 15 so Nikes are basically the only sneaker I can get the 15 wide that they fit I'm not burning my sneakers over it and I don't feel that passionate leave it you know that they signed Kaepernick that I'm protesting it again if you do that's once again your opinion but remember as many people as it's pushing away it's also attracting those who are backing them up and everything and in you know this is this is not really I guess you would consider it a scandal but on a kind of minor scale all right I mean look at Volkswagen look at all the emissions stuff they were fraudulently reporting and I read somewhere and again I read this so I didn't do this that myself but something like they're the cause of death between 200 and 500 Europeans every year due to the emission violations and all that I don't know but anyway they were a year ago whatever it was a year and a half ago whenever all that happened they were really in the middle of a crap storm and they came out shining great with corporate profits up and so I mean that's a scandal all right defrauding emission standards and doing all this this is you know at worst a bad decision okay that's at worst all right it's hard to believe this is a scandal and therefore I think that yeah maybe Nike will have a bad quarter off of this which we won't see for a while right everybody Saddam's reporting in them up yeah but that won't be based on this right so yeah maybe we'll see that a little bit down the road but if the fundamentals remain strong sales remain strong and the trend remains strong you know there's nothing saying that Nikes go to immediately crash it did not crash it pulled back a little bit this week I forgot maybe the news was Wednesday I don't know if it was Wednesday it's really not down that much off of it right so that's my opinion I'm like hey and a lot of emails on it so I want to talk about it I don't see a show here in the stock and there's nothing to do with with if I believed in what they did like I said I you know I'm not a pro Colin Kaepernick I'm not pro the football players still kneeling if I owned a football team yeah they would be like go ahead Neil you're getting fine and I'm finding you here too because let's see I think there like a lot of people like Jerry Jones who a lot of people have a problem with the owner GM or whatever he is he's definitely at least the owner on the Cowboys he's like yeah if anybody does that you're done you're gone that's it you work for me it's my rules I get it and that's great and I support now you know I don't care if other people call him a jerk and much worse names than that that's awesome that bet he says that right but if I was the owner I'd be like yeah and then the up the Jets guy who's like well I'm gonna pay their fines if they did fine I'm gonna pay the funds I'm like well that's ridiculous what I would do and this is again just what I would do and I'm not owning a team anytime soon I would say you know what do whatever you want you get fine though we're also going to give you find two because we don't need you doing this we're telling you not to but we're not going to infringe you from your First Amendment rights but you're violating the corporate policy so I'm gonna find you also because remember football team still a private company and they can have their own corporate policies I don't know why I'm talking so much on this I guess because of the flake book and all the other discussions I'm having with a lot of people offline as well about this it's just you know again I'll leave it with it's their right to do whatever they want as always not breaking the law of course that's why they're not going to prison for it or going if you hell for it but it's my right to not appreciate them doing it okay all right great so that's Nike how about caterpillar okay caterpillar still sloppy John Deere still sloppy come back to those in a week or so our bonds so our bonds going to break out of this congestion to the downside now eventually they will break out of this congestion because periods of low volatility lead the leads to range expansion now if they were to pop up interest rates of forefinger to the fall of course interest rates rise so right now it's just in a range right and to try to guess which way it's gonna go again I think it's a futile effort here's oil so oil still holding that July 4th seasonal high right up in there how about gold yeah gold you know some people are looking for bottoms here I'm not it reached the seventy eight point six now it's bouncing back I think the next time down it goes lower and it tests the dissemble owes so update recap it is sell Rosh Hashanah time right that's a seasonal tendency it's not in stone right but sell Russia shot up by Yom Kippur so we could continue to see weakness I put out about the size of what this pullback was here and that would bring us down to here there's also the 50-day could stop that if it were to continue tickle lower I'm using the S&P but you can look at these on the other indices as well all right watch Friday's high miss inverted hammer here and if it if it confirms if we break it then we could be on for a testifies or new highs I'm still looking for the Dow to break out to new highs before this move at a minimum before this move was over and that's not me saying once the Dow hits the highs it's over I'm not saying that I'm saying at a minimum I am looking for the Dow to go to new highs before this is over I think it's gone mid we're going higher than that last week talked about the cgc what a move boom got a grainy enough of somebody who was real happy about this one looks like it may be setting up in yet another coil here but this was a really nice first move stop this week to look at is a stock called stock for this week is generic Holdings Inc so this stock is a nice strong stock looks like at the hard bottom back in 2017 now it's pushing up and it is forming a power triangle here so if this could break out look for this to trade up to 60 questions tiny and attack the markets calm don't forget to sign up for inter week updates hit subscribe and smash that bell to get updates on your videos and give me a thumbs up if you like what you're hearing you can also leave comments about anything we took anything I talked about today including your opinion on Nike your opinion on the Nike ad your opinion on Kaepernick your opinion on kneeling I respect everybody's opinions just don't be abusive and that's fine right I am my opinion you have your opinion and I'll gladly talk to you about it if you want if not hey I'll talk to you in the intrigue update or a next week's video have a great training week you
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