저자: MikeSaul · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 2017년 12월 초 시장은 단기 조정(풀백)은 있을 수 있으나 베어마켓은 아니며, 연말까지 한 번 더 상승할 것으로 본다. 시장 전반: 금요일 뉴스로 SPY가 265→260대로 급락했으나 200일선 지지 후 큰 피해 없이 마감. 연속 신고가 구간에서는 부분 익절과 손절선 상향을 권고. 상승이 영원히 간다는 생각은 경계해야 한다고 강조. 지수: S&P500, 다우, 러셀, 나스닥 모두 유사한 흐름. 나스닥은 수요일 급락과 금요일 변동성 충격이 있었으나 큰 우려는 아니라고 봄. 예상: 연말 전 한 번 더 상승. 반도체: 지난주 내내 조정 중. 단기 숏 신호는 아니고 관찰 대상. 반등 진입 시점은 며칠 더 기다려야 할 수 있음. 금융주: 뱅크오브아메리카, JP모건, 씨티, 골드만 등 금요일 변동성 캔들. 명확한 방향성 언급 없음. 바이오: 바이오젠은 횡보 후 돌파 여부 관찰, 길리어드는 200일선 돌파 후 재지지. 방향성 판단 유보. 빅테크: 아마존은 사이버먼데이 역대 최대 매출 언급. 애플은 고점→20일선 눌림 후 ABC 조정 가능성 관찰. 알파벳은 50일선 관찰. 넷플릭스는 박스권 상단 쪽 기울기이나 다시 박스 안. 테슬라는 200일선 돌파에 실패 중이며 갭 구간(279, 271) 관찰. 산업재: 캐터필러 고점 부근, 디어는 과열 구간으로 평균회귀 가능성 언급. 원자재/채권: 금은 수개월 횡보, 금광주 부진. 채권 반등 가능성 언급하나 방향 단정 없음. 원유(USO) 저항선 근접. 비트코인: 현재 약 1만1천 달러대. 언급 전반은 상승 여력은 있으나 큰 폭락(크래시) 가능성이 높다는 입장. 선물 상장(12월 18일 예정) 직후는 피하고 연초 이후 관찰 예정. 본인은 거래하지 않았다고 함. 거래소 신규 계좌 급증은 과열 신호일 수 있음. 출연자 전망: 연말까지 한 번 더 상승, 본격 조정은 아닌 소폭 조정 가능성, 비트코인은 추가 상승 가능하나 큰 폭락 위험.
다듬은 글
hey it's Michael Saul but everybody calls me tiny and this video is did you survive the bear market of 2017 plus lots to say about Bitcoin this is stock market and other market analysis for the week of December 4th 2017 if you would like to receive entry week updates for me simply go to WWE at the markets calm put in your first name your best email address click the sign me up button then go to the email you used to sign up look for an email from me there's a link in there you must click in order to confirm that it was really you that put your information in and you will start receiving entry week updates from me so what am I talking about with this bear market talk well friend of mine told me that on Friday when there was news released regarding the big testimony that's headed against President Trump by or I should say the alleged testimony coming from Flynn against our president but anyway that news sent the markets spiraling okay and this is a 15-minute chart of what happened on Friday the spy went to 265 and change all the way down to 260 and change whoa and then of course bounced off the 15-minute 200-day moving average and came up and didn't close at Green on the session but wasn't really that bad in the end so um the last price was up here at 260 489 it closed at 260 for 46 and of course the intraday data may be different based on selling whatever the point is in the end it wasn't a big deal and the reason for the the name of the video is a friend of mine told me that there was somebody that printed had shirts printed up and said I survived the bear market of 2017 because everybody's looking for this big pullback and and it just it didn't happen and if this is the worst that it's gonna get well as we could see it's really not that bad in the long run only a blip if you are a swing trainer now for those of you who have been following me and if not you just have to go back and watch the videos they're all on YouTube I do believe that we are going to get a pullback I don't think we're gonna have a bear market I don't think we're gonna have a huge enormous correction but a pullback a smaller type correction absolutely possible okay my biggest thing and this is what scares me that I just look at the market now and go wow it just looks like we're gonna just keep going up forever and that is the talk of a nitwit that's right I'm calling myself a nitwit markets do not go up forever they are they are mean reverting vehicles the equity markets and other markets as well which means they go back to the average and when they get overextended the snapback can be violent however that doesn't mean that I'm sitting here saying this is the spot to get short it's extremely difficult to pick the highs in a bull market there are a lot of former traders former gurus former hedge fund managers whatever you just pick it who have tried to call the top of this market for years and they just have been washed out I mean look at this move is just amazing here on the SP now I don't want to sit here and start worshipping stock market either but it's important to understand and every week I always talk about this when we get the new highs always the time to consider taking partial profits but more importantly to move stop losses up in my opinion of course in order to lock your gains in in case there is a crushing you don't want to ride it all the way down thinking it's gonna be okay it's gonna be okay it's gonna be okay eventually there will be a lower high in place okay meaning that we will come up we will pull back we will up here we go again and then we won't eclipse that high and that will be the sign of a bigger pullback coming something that looks sorta like this except Oh an elongated scale right we hit a high we come back we put a lower high in and then we go down and then we mess around a little bit this was only for a couple days and then we were or right back up so again prior to this news we had the after Thanksgiving ramp really nice push higher here and then this ugly candle the question is is this candle just a blip on the chart or is it the sign of something is it the first crack I do not think it's the first crack in the ice I think we're going to go higher however as you have been hearing me say I would love nothing more than a pullback he had one more pull back to get positioned for a late ya move a santa claus rally although this really could have been mistaken the closed rally when you think about it right and i know it's like whoa wait a minute christmas is a little bit away even Hanukkah still about a week or so away right but what happens is when these seasonal trends or that you they start that when people start to take notice sorry of these seasonal trends they start to front-run them and can go in earlier and earlier and earlier so well i don't think this is the santa claus rally it could have been i want to see a nice pause here i'd like to see this a little shot of volatility to maybe come out into a coil like this or something and then from here move out higher once again into the end of year it would not surprise me if instead we got a pullback that's why I'm not saying by every little piece of weakness however I still believe we have one more move into the end of the year let's quickly go through cuz I'm already 7 minutes in here Dow looks similar here's the Russell I mean they they all look the same and the story's the same here's the cues a little bit different because the cues had that nasty day on Wednesday but did have the volatility flushing plunge on Friday still I don't think there's anything to really worry about there he has the mid caps alright let's go through the sectors semiconductors yes I think abductors have been in a correction since for the basically the whole last week all right you got my clot tanker was getting a little sloppy here's the video yeah the video wasn't darling and it had some news and it got sloppy Intel again I don't think it's a short signal yet it's just something to watch it's not a clear hail is now the bull back let's grab it right that's not really how it is right now we got a weight of you know may have to wait a couple days for something to set up here's the banks right so his Bank of America JP Morgan I mean look at these these candles here that you're seeing his Citigroup all right what about the brokers xbd there we go and you got Goldman Morgan like Mason all showing that volatile candle on Friday how about the biotechs and the biotech is actually closed higher we have to watch them here because they look like you get stuck like a Biogen setting up in a consolidation here let me grab my trend tool here and you can you can see if yeah let's see if this is a real breakout and see if it's going to start moving higher if it does get going and his Gilead another one the pattern and I like it did break the 200-day but look how it got right back on top of it before trying to move out higher here okay let's look at some of the big-name tech again Amazon watch that 20min Amazon record cyber monday is the biggest day ever bigger than prime day etc diso's keeps slathering on the wealth but for him it's Apple now Apple has that low a high deal that I was talking about that we can watch for in the markets over all right you got the high you got the pull back to the 20 nice buy but it didn't quite make new highs before pulling back again is it a short sign no right now it's an ABC this could be the spot where a particular blast saw from but definitely something to watch his alphabet watch that 50-day moving average how about Netflix I mean again it's not a short signal but it's mostly been in a range yeah it's been leaning to the upside but overall and now it's back inside this price range here how about like a Tesla and Tesla's still struggling to get over that 200-day moving average so maybe that's set for a fall here but has to really get through let's see you know this gap at 279 s and then this gap here at 271 okay okay let's look at caterpillar yep pop it up to a high here's John Deere now again look how stretched this is again it's tough to fight this strong of a move but look how stretched it is from the moving averages mean reversion mean reversion goes back to the the key moving average is the 20 EMA is a very popular average a lot of people watch it it estimates about a month right this is 20 day 20 trading days in a month alright so let's look at gold yeah nothing gold has become the ugly sister for speculative investments thanks to Bitcoin and of course speculative is all relative right barely but gold is not doing anything it's been an arranged for a couple months old miners under 24 as my good friend and fantastic market technician micron so it always says people don't get interested in the miners until the GTF gets over 20 for his bonds again a lot of people looking for a bond rally maybe there's gonna be an enormous move out of this congestion here but it first has to break and he is oil so oil up here just shy of this resistance I'm using USO which comes in at the high up here comes in at 12 alright so let's talk about Bitcoin for a second so Bitcoin on the cover of Barron's this week I read the article it was a pretty nice article if you read Barron's you can give it a read hundred thousand new accounts open at coinbase I believe it's called they say that unofficial numbers are 13 million accounts where Charles Schwab only has I think ten point four or ten point six million stock accounts think about that there is no denying that there is Bitcoin mania here Mike Swanson wrote a wonderful piece in his newsletter about how Bitcoin is basically a stock market bubble okay so while it doesn't correlate with the US dollar it correlates incredibly with the US stock market why well it's speculative it's it's a real highly speculative instruments speculative trading vehicle investing vehicle now the point of the article was how it's getting legitimized right with futures being announced they're gonna start trading I believe December 18th I'm not going near them until the beginning of next year it's so close at this point I you know what happens with pioneers the people that want to be first adopters well pioneers end up with arrows in their back right so it's gonna be cash settled it's not gonna be settled in Bitcoin they are saying that the margins are gonna be higher then the like subject yes a pea futures which is 5% these are set to be a 35% and of course your broker can give you day trading margins right that's where the real leverage in futures can come in all the whole there's leverage enough but anyway so it's gonna be settled in cash and that could lead to some problems getting an accurate cash quote so I think there's gonna be some kinks to be worked out and therefore I'm gonna be avoiding it for now I'm gonna be avoiding the Bitcoin futures for now all right as far as okay more mainstream financial institutions are accepting it and you know this is how it starts and this is gonna be brain just remember a lot of the big names were also involved in the internet bubble if you go back and do news searches and archives and talk about how all these IPOs are coming out with these stocks like stamps calm and pets calm and all these stocks that have no earnings and no chance of earnings and no business and no business model that's sustainable there were a lot of big big organizations big institutions behind them as well so don't let that fool you don't let that be the reason why you call Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general legitimate okay I believe that Bitcoin will move higher last I looked and it's just about noon here on Sunday the third Bitcoin was up at 11:00 thousand 750 a coin or whatever it is a lot about 700 whatever it is so it's moving I do believe it's going to go higher but I do believe there will be a serious crash I'm not saying it's this is the spot to short it or get out of the way whatever you want to trade it train it I have not trade made one transaction if any cryptocurrency not saying that I never will but what happens with moves like this is there usually is a pretty sharp correction aka a crash it settles and then it right it it rises from the ashes or it doesn't right it doesn't have to rise from the ashes a lot of those aforementioned internet stocks never came back to the glory right and there's a great point in Barron's where they're comparing crypto to gold and how gold inflation-adjusted has never eclipse the 1980 peak whatever it is you read it yourself I'm not gonna you know spend the time reading the article to you but so don't just think about crypto has to go higher it has to go much higher it can't crash it can't correct it absolutely can and the there's money being made no there's no denying that but the real money will be made after there is a correction a serious correction aka even a crash and then what happens after that if it does decide to rise out of the edges and it may not be Bitcoin right it may be another it may be another cryptocurrency okay main Bitcoin may not be the star of the show forever but whatever it is that's when you know that the move is real so I'm not telling you get out of all your Bitcoin if you're in a cadet avoid your crypto I'm not telling you to avoid it whatever do whatever you want your money okay all I'm saying is that it's never this easy okay and the fact that the mainstream is starting to adopt it or that oh there's a hundred thousand accounts opened over Thanksgiving weekend 13 million account that's not in my opinion necessarily a good sign okay and it could be the sign of you foria it could be the public all piling in and know how that usually ends questions tiny and attack the markets calm sign up for my free email list and get entry week updates look forward to talking to you via email or in next week's video have a great week you
Comments 0