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as one of the most famous investment managers in the world kathy wood is well known for betting big on a handful of stocks critics say she's playing with fire but with a massive 152 return in 2020 woods arc innovation fund has propelled her to the front pages of cnbc and many other financial media outlets it's a high-flying high-risk high-reward tier of investing and has proved to be quite successful in the last dozen quarters on the internet she is viewed as the ultimate perma bull a foil to people like peter schiff who believe we are just moments away from imploding the entire monetary system kathy on the other hand is famous for believing that the market is not in a bubble and they were only getting started with the genomic ai and fintech revolution an investing theory that has proved to be temporarily correct as the market continues to march higher and higher in 2021 with inflation looming oil prices going crazy and the chinese economy shaking many have looked at kathy's comments as the light in the darkness across the industry prominent investors are pushing a negative outlook on markets but kathy refuses to budge her latest video is filled with shocking predictions about our futures and where she sees the economy is headed in today's video we go over some of our plans and dig deeper into the events unfolding across the world we start with inflation as we have pointed out many times on this channel record high cpi numbers have plagued the american economy for months now the majority of citizens are beginning to doubt this problem is temporary even if you take the highly manipulated federal reserve numbers the data is right in front of our eyes for months now there has been no relief from increases in prices everywhere kathy has previously stated that she believed inflation would be temporary and that deflation would be the problem of tomorrow a theory that seemed delusional considering the actions of the federal reserve in the first segment of this video we analyzed new revelations and look into the possibility that this problem isn't going away anytime soon take a listen the question about transitory or not let's think a little bit more about that the market is going up uh if the market were going up uh uh i i would imagine that uh fears of inflation were diminishing but they do not seem to be the headlines and actually some of the statistics that we've seen coming out are are quite surprising on the high side there's certainly surprising me so let's talk about why inflation might not be transitory and and i'll cut to the quick and tell you we do believe that inflation's going to come down dramatically so we have not changed our point of view but let's let's be fair and balanced about this and and make sure uh that we do understand what's going on out there um it was very surprising this week or last week to see uh the workers the union workers at deer reject uh reject their proposal reject dear's proposal for uh wage increases which in year one i think if i read this correctly uh year one 23 and thereafter five percent uh for the duration of this contract and they rejected it um so that that is really interesting uh that we haven't seen that kind of wage uh increase and i'm talking about the five percent in a very long time so there you have kathy a little bit surprised to see the inflation talk continue something she believed would have disappeared by now in my opinion despite her stating that she still does believe it's transitory there is a bit of worry especially when you read things like the deer strike if you were not aware john deere is a heavy machinery manufacturer the company is the world's largest manufacturer of farm equipment and employs about 27 and a half thousand people in the united states and canada over a month ago on october 14th over 10 000 workers walked off the job in protest they have asked for significantly higher wages to combat inflation and this isn't the only incident in america the same situation is unfolding for kellogg's free delay and many more manufacturers across the country kathy is especially worried about these developments because they are a signal of an incoming wage price spiral a macroeconomic theory that is used to explain the cause and effect relationship between rising wages and rising prices the situation is simple higher wages lead to higher consumption which leads to higher prices that self-feeding lube can quickly get out of control once you give someone a raise taking it back down becomes nearly impossible but according to mrs wood this will all go away soon due to a massive rise in productivity productivity is a stat that has been accelerating for over a century and it acts as a deflationary force according to many experts we will soon experience something called the great deflation a period of time where we will see massive advances in technology such as driverless cars and trucks advances that will bring down costs and fight inflationary forces so far however it seems that these jumps in technology are still years away and with rising input costs inflation could very easily score an early knockout the biggest of these input costs is oil with a barrel now approaching the 2008 highs almost every company on earth will see the cost of doing business increase oil whether you like to admit it or not is the foundation of the 21st century economy another price out there that has surprised us is the oil price uh i'm on record of saying um a few things about oil but uh that i i was i have said that i would be surprised if oil prices surpassed their 2018 high that was 77 per barrel today we're at 81 uh dollars per barrel and we have gotten as high i think as uh 84 barrels barrel dollars per barrel um so i've been wrong on that and um and in assessing why we're wrong um it's becoming very clear it's not the demand side of the equation it is the supply side we have esg so environmental social and governance objectives that pension funds are striving to achieve and as a result many pension funds endowments foundations are telling oil companies look we're not going to be buying your stock anymore because you're not shifting your capital spending from fossil fuels to renewables now what kathy says here is incredibly important as it's one of the most underrated topics in finance right now she states that she's surprised by the oil price and what's happening out there is a supply problem oil demand has not reached 2019 levels yet so one would think that the price would remain low well as it turns out a certain element of society is politically shifting oil prices now without getting too conspiratorial you can watch my other video on this specific topic but in summary large institutional investors are refusing to give big oil money this is resulting in oil companies failing to grow output we now also have an administration that shuts down oil pipelines and at the same time begs opec to pump more a confusing battle between saving the environment and saving the economy with opec refusing to push more supply we are left with higher and higher prices thus feeding the inflationary loop while no one truly understands what causes inflation we do know it's likely a psychological issue if the crowds perceive prices will rise they will buy more now to avoid future pain thus completing a self-fulfilling prophecy oil and food are right in your face and probably the largest influencers on this psychology you can hear kathy speak about this here opec is being very stingy with its supplies i think this week it came out and it said in response to president biden's request for increased opec supply they basically said this is your problem not our problem and i was surprised by that because we know that saudi arabia in particular and i do believe that comment came out of saudi ara arabia it was effectively get lost i was surprised anyway we know they don't want demand destruction because they have huge reserves still so they want to they want to have demand continue at a decent rate and they don't want the uh substitution into renewables to take place so i was surprised by that comment there might be something else going on behind the scenes probably political that we don't understand so overall kathy seems to be slightly concerned about this growing inflation problem something that she believed would have gone away by now what this means for markets no one knows but as michael batnick has stated in his most recent blog post you don't live in the world you were born into investors have suspended this belief that's the only way to describe what's happening today how else do you describe the behavior that allows a car company that has yet to deliver a car to be valued at 65 billion with interest rates at zero the entire playing field is distorted and comparing this time to any other time in history is rather problematic before the video ends i just wanted to remind you guys to hit that subscribe button if you enjoyed the content we are at nearly 85 000 subscribers and i would love to hit that elusive 100k mark before the end of the year thank you guys for watching
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