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real issue is what all can go wrong yeah because we can I mean we are all born bullish Perma Bull and all but a lot of things can go wrong it will go wrong but what are the things you see going wrong see I I've had this line for long that whenever you want to be bullish in India you look at the business and you find all the reasons to be bullish whenever you want to make a bare case for India you look at the macro and you'll get very very bearish but we've gone through Cargill we've gone through you know coalition government we've gone through covid we've gone through everything somehow the miracle of our country is the entrepreneurs are great the sense innate of business is great you may get a one or two year break or a six-month break in in your investment returns but eventually the power of profit and the compounding of profit is what has given us our returns if if I look back to when I started my life again I remind you 10 years after you the profit of Reliance Industries was 150 crores that's all in 1991 they are north of 80,000 crores now they have seen us put sanctions cargil has happened covid has happened this has happened that has happened see where they are but do you think do you think Supply you know because the valuations are unre not unreasonable but definitely demanding do you think Supply can be Supply can overwhelm the demand side in terms of Supply see again it's a matter of horizon that if it it depresses the market now you will say this Supply is creating the investment cycle because if I raise 2 lakh crores of equity no but if for ra 2 L cres of Foreigner sell sure another 5% of their holding right that you can get enough 5 lak CR of Supply sure but then the bull argument will be they will come back and buy it at 10 lakh CR valuation after come why once the market collapses then they'll come again we're both bullish so I know you're just being Devil's Advocate the reality is for any investor in the world when you look at us other than the Magnificent four now not even the seven everything is in the rearview mirror you look at Europe it's nothing's going to happen Japan nothing's going to happen China is already facing its own problem so Larry Summers had this very lovely line he said Japan is a hospital Europe is a museum China is a jail where do you invest in the world to paraphrase what he was saying so if this is a 4 trillion dollar GDP economy which is almost inevitably going to be 10 15 20 over the next next 10 20 years you would be stupid anywhere in the world to not come and make some allocation here today we are 3% of global allocation if this country has to become 10 and I don't think we debate that it's a matter of when it will happen it's not if for the other countries it's a problem of if now so yes things can go wrong over here oil can go to 120 next year there can be a war China can go into Taiwan he can go into arach you can go anywhere let me ask one more can you delay the inevitable do you think I mean next 12 months 18 months the coer because you are 22 23 times trip I'm just asking m i can react to that then we did to my question first I understood where you're coming the question is where is the we we had this lovely forward I think some friends of uh common friends with n and he said if you toss a coin on a daily basis your odds are 50/50 you when you do the investment return on a 3-month basis you may add best be 6040 when you do it on your onee basis it becomes 752 5 in your favor if you do on a three-year basis you become 9010 so to answer the question a short run this year for the index I don't think more than 5 or 10% that's my view we are we are expensive no doubt about it but if you if we are indeed so bullish we think it gets to5 and 10 trillion over the next you know five and 10 years respectively the size of profit pool will be so large that the we see we are concerned with companies that we sit on I don't buy the index neither do you and all we are doing is we are buying odds that is it priced for Perfection for everything or are there Pockets available to me where I can invest and then for each person who says I can supply and depress the market please remember my friend Manish is also here who just raised another big private Equity Fund he keeps bringing fabulous companies then to the market just as an example you got I think Au man all these fabulous companies to the market uh you are part of that as well uh so one side there is supply of old and other side there is supply of new and there's reason to be optimistic about it that that's all I can't be a blind bull like our old friend Rakesh that at all time 360 days we are bullish it is tempered the valuations are not cheap no no doubt about it but if you take a longer term View and when I look back uh you know 30 years in my case uh we were $275 billion GDP we are at 4 trillion today the size of profit pool of India was what what was our foreign exchange reserves where are we today uh so I mean whenever you are in doubt like in global financial crisis you wake up in the morning slap yourself think of the problem of a rich uncle in the world but hold on to your portfolio I know we are trying hard to find bearish things but maybe we'll ask some and some any bearish reasons for but well the reality what he says right that when we are all so optimistic the prices are reflecting that so we are we're confident about the economy we're confident about corporate sector we're confident about our Savers but this price is representing a cherry consensus that is also there something very bad unexpected happens it can cause a sharp selloff but I still think this becomes a buy the dip Market rather than a sell the rallies uh ladies and gentlemen a big round of applause to the jugal Bundi between Manish chani and RAM agrawal lots of important insights and of course lots of anecdotes uh thank you so much for sharing your Journeys 30 years and 40 years so cumulatively a wealth of experience here being shared with us live on TV and of course here at the jolies club in Mumbai uh ladies and gentlemen once again a big round of applause for our two Market veterans
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