Crypto Price Predictions: Cathie Wood & Mike Novogratz

요약 보기

이 영상의 결론: 피델리티의 비트코인 포함 401K(퇴직연금) 출시가 임박해 암호화폐 겨울을 끝낼 수 있는 대형 호재이며, 장기적으로 비트코인은 금 역할 일부를 대체해 최대 50만~100만 달러까지 갈 수 있다는 낙관론. 주요 주장 1 — 퇴직연금 자금 유입: 밀레니얼은 노동인구의 30%지만 자산은 5%뿐이고, 부는 베이비붐 세대가 퇴직계좌에 쥐고 있다. 피델리티 퇴직계좌에 비트코인이 올해 가을 이내 출시되며, 일부 비중(몇 %)만 들어와도 가격에 큰 영향을 줄 수 있다. 주요 주장 2 — 제도권 확산: 이 흐름은 ETF 출시(올해 또는 내년 초 예상)와 함께 추가 매수 물결을 만들 것으로 봄. 비트코인 출시 13년 등 짧은 역사 강조. 주요 주장 3 — 갤럭시 디지털의 투자 선정 기준: 모멘텀(신규 프로토콜, 개발자·투자자 관심, 세계적 팀)을 봄. 1차 미분이 양수면 관심, 2차 미분이 가속되면 롱. 실사용이 없는 '고스트 체인'은 숏 가능성. 자산은 비트코인·이더리움·솔라나 등 분산 포트폴리오. 주요 주장 4 — 장기 가격 전망: 비트코인이 금의 역할 50%를 대체하면 약 5조 달러 기회. 송금시장(약 6000억 달러), 고액자산가 보험·몰수 위험 회피, 기업 현금 분산, 기관투자자 배분 2.5%를 근거로 제시. 금 가격 상승 시 비트코인은 약 50만 달러, 중기 100만 달러 가능성 언급. 주요 주장 5 — 단기 전망과 리스크: 단기 급등은 원치 않으며 중기에는 완만히 상승(그라인드)할 것으로 봄. 미국·유럽의 부채 부담으로 인플레이션을 통한 상환이 불가피하다는 거시 논리. 최근 저점(크립토 윈터) 이후 신고가(7만 달러), 10만 달러 돌파가 현실적이라고 함. 출연자 전망 정리: 캐시 우드·마이크 노보그라츠 모두 비트코인 장기 강세 견해이나, 단기 폭등보다는 점진적 상승을 전제. 영상 내 1~3개월 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 제한적.

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01. might know the Gratz is the founder of Galaxy digital who offer crypto to institutions which has now made Mike a crypto billionaire Kathy Wood founder of Arc invest is a company focused on crypto and Innovation now both were key speakers at a crypto conference in the Bahamas this year and although this was a couple of months back it's actually more relevant right now as one of the big pieces of news that was announced is about to go live in the US and it is big enough to potentially end the crypto winter and so in this video we'll be covering three main things the huge Fidelity Bitcoin 401K which is due to launch at any time then Mike Nova Grant shares how his company selects which crypto assets to invest in and then we finish up with them reiterating their big price predictions for the crypto Market in the next bull market cycle as always if you do enjoy anything in the video then drop a like always appreciated okay so first up what you may not know is that Millennials make up 30 of the workforce but they only own five percent of the wealth now just think about that for a second Millennials make up 30 of the workforce but they only have five percent of the wealth so the question is where is all the money well it's actually in the hands and pockets of the Baby Boomers this is the demographic that control most of the money and where is all this money it's in retirement accounts and what's coming this fall due at any time which most people have forgotten about I remember with my own Ira I was trying with just gbtc to to get it transferred and you know and then also underlying Bitcoin and nope nope nope wouldn't and it no one wanted to provide the custody so this is a breakthrough for for crypto in the retirement uh asset world listen this is a story of adoption adoption adoption right every year every month somewhere around the world people are selling the Bitcoin story and people are deciding to store some of their hard-earned wealth in this digital asset secured by trust and at access is hard right Fidelity's customers are not 20 and 30 years old right they're Baby Boomers who don't feel as comfortable as some of you crypto degens you know moving around crypto on your your phones and so as we get more people to have an easier access into the system you're just going to see more people buying it and you know you're going to see the same thing when the ETF happens but back on what it happens sometime uh but I do think it will have an ETF this year maybe beginning of next year you're going to see another wave of people and so the more people you know we always forget cryptos only 13.

02. bitcoin's only 13 years old and really yeah those kudos to Abby Johnson she's been on bitcoin um for at least I mean I think eight nine years she used to mine in her office she's the CEO of fidelity so she's been priming the company for this for a very long time right I think it's a huge competitive Advantage for Fidelity and so although it was first due to launch this summer Bitcoin is being made available in retirement counts due this fall so basically any time from now baby boomers will be able to easily add a little bit of Bitcoin in their retirement account and just a couple of percent would be huge for all crypto prices and this amount of money could certainly be big enough to end the crypto winter okay next up obviously being a crypto billionaire Mike novogratz knows a thing or two about out crypto assets so how does Galaxy digital select which cryptos to invest in we look for momentum in general and so we we gauge that by if it's a new protocol developer interest you know investor interest who's building on the program is it a world-class team and so I I have a really simple model for growth Equity if the first derivative is positive I get excited if the second derivative is growing at an accelerating pace so if adoption is going like this then you just want to be long evaluation doesn't matter that much it's very hard to Value fundamentally any of these blockchains right these are really vets on the future right we're putting this giant trust machine together and anyone out there in the audience who can really say with confidence that it's going to be Solana and not ethereum or I just don't think you're you're being honest right it's such complicated stuff how these blockchains are going to fit together which bridges are going to work which layer twos are going to take off is it going to be stroke wear or polygon or some new layer or two um and so we look at having a diversified portfolio of those bets and we bet on the systems that and the and the teams that we think are really world class there are some I used to call them ghost chains and my God I would get death threats on Twitter people would get so upset um I'm not going to belong those things I quite frankly often will be short though and it doesn't mean those communities don't care about their token and they're really excited about those tokens but if we don't see usage we don't want to actually be long and so Galaxy digital takes a diversified approach to investing in crypto they have a few different funds for institutional clients including an index fund a defy index and a liquid Alpha fund as well as three individual asset funds the big two being Bitcoin and ethereum and then interestingly out of all the other choices they went with Solana okay and to finish up we all know crypto is taking a bit of a beating right now but once inflation gets under control Supply Chains Get sorted out and we move out of winter how high do Kathy and Mike see Bitcoin going in the next bull market cycle we do believe that Bitcoin will usurp 50 of Gold's role this is digital gold so that's roughly a five trillion dollar opportunity right there uh so the the smallest one is remittances uh we think that it will take most of the remittance Market the remittance Market is a 600 billion dollar market we have insurance policies High net worth individuals watching you know confiscation of wealth right and with all the turmoil and emerging markets and elsewhere um you know the Middle East who knew that MBS was going to take his cousin's wealth away so don't they wish they had some Bitcoin and uh private keys so uh the the also companies uh uh allocating some of their cash or diversifying some of their cash into and finally institutional how much will institutional investors account for this well we assume that institutional investors will put two and a half percent of their uh allocation to bitcoin and that isn't even as big as the global digital gold opportunity I don't want it to really accelerate wildly in the short term just for all our safety uh I do think in the medium term it's just going to grind because there's almost no way we get out of this debt trap without inflating our way out right there's just too much debt in the U.S in Europe and around the world and so you've got to inflate your way out of this right the US has got to run four percent inflation act like it's two percent and just hope it doesn't go this way right otherwise we're going to have this debt that's going to saddle Generations right and so I I do think you're going to see Bitcoin grind up because of this adoption people are going to be like wait a minute seven percent inflation is your four percent inflation Bitcoin is deflation area yeah pretty close to deflationary and so I I think it's a much steadier Mission I do think 500 000 right that's gold if you want to think about it so just to replace gold you get the 500 000 uh depending on where gold goes uh I think Gold's gonna go higher as well and so I'm a medium term 500 000 guy and I think we can get to a million at one point but I don't think in the short run we want it that high you know so although hard to believe right now as we delve around this cyclical bottom they both believe that Bitcoin can get to the insanely high price of one million dollars per Bitcoin for Bitcoin to be as big as gold the price would have to be 500 000 which does seem a bit more achievable but my biggest takeaway is that getting back to New all-time highs 70 1000 all Breaking the hundred thousand in comparison does now seem very achievable so there you are guys I hope you enjoyed now keep your eyes peeled as we could be hearing from Fidelity at any time and this is big enough to end the crypto winter but for now just to say if you did enjoy anything in the video then drop a like and a big thank you to everyone who does and I'll see you in the next video bye for now thank you