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Bitcoin, could it serve the three roles of money? So, means of exchange, what we use every day uh to to buy things, store of value, uh like gold, and unit of account. Would prices be quoted in terms of Bitcoin? This is a new asset class, and most people will agree with that. We we did a study on it.
If this asset does not perform like other assets, in other words, it provides diversification for funds and because it is behaving differently, institutions have to consider it. The global economy is showing increasing signs of stress and Bitcoin is beginning to fill the gap. According to the OECD's 2025 global debt report, sovereign and corporate bond debt exceeded $100 trillion by the end of 2024, with $25 trillion borrowed that year alone, nearly triple the borrowing scene in 2007.
Alarmingly, around 40% of this debt is due to mature by 2027, much of it under much higher interest rate. This raises the risk of widespread refinancing challenges, defaults, and deeper financial instability. As cracks form in the traditional financial system, the search for alternatives is intensifying.
Bitcoin with its fixed supply of 21 million and decentralized nature is emerging as a compelling option. Kathy Wood, CEO of Arc Invest, argues that Bitcoin has the potential to fulfill all three core functions of money, medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. Her firm sees it not only as a hedge against inflation and monetary debasement, but also as a breakthrough in financial infrastructure, a digital asset with asymmetric upside.
Cathy believes Bitcoin alongside AI is one of the most disruptive innovations of our time, capable of reshaping global capital markets and unlocking trillions in economic value. In the rest of this video, she explains how institutional adoption could accelerate Bitcoin's growth and why she believes this transformation is already in motion.
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What are some of the jobs of the future going to be? I think individual investors are going to be providing for themselves if they are investing on the right side of change. learn learn what you're investing in or learn why we've invested uh the the way we have now that the world is moving so quickly into this new world uh and Bitcoin has become uh so successful an investment many people are trying to figure out okay how how do I get involved with the new world
and when I say get on the right side change. We think there's going to be a lot of disruption to the traditional world order. I think there's going to be a lot more customization and personalization and creativity explosion here. You know, it's interesting that this is happening when the demographic profile of the developed world is as it is.
We have a very low unemployment rate in the US. I know the unemployment rates in Europe and the UK have been dropping to much lower levels than where where they were stuck for years. I remember thinking, "Wow, double digits." Uh we have a demographic issue. I mean, if you if you watch what uh Elon Musk worries about the most, he he worries about the population implosion uh because collapse collapse in population in the developed world.
um because we're not uh uh we're not producing children above the fertility rate. We're we are setting up for a shrinkage with China is going there. Japan is going there. And so we're going to need productivity uh productivity to help us if we can't find human beings. Productivity is going to be essential.
So, as we're looking at real growth ahead and when you think about real growth, uh you should be thinking, okay, somebody's benefiting from this. Um, and I'm going to set what I I'm going to set up the number here, uh, by describing what has happened historically. If you look from 1500 to 1900 and you try and figure out what real GDP growth was back then, real economic growth, um, as best as uh, Brett Winton, our chief futurist in consultation with academics can determine, it was roughly 0.6% per year.
And then we had the industrial revolution. Uh we had the internal combustion engine, telephone, electricity. And for the past 125 years, real GDP growth has been 3%. And and most li living standards have gone up over time. Some more than others. I know that's a debate, but most have gone up. If we as we look forward based on the five innovation platforms around which we have centered our research and investing, if we're right, real GDP growth in the next 5 years could accelerate to 7.3%.
And that gives you a sense of uh the economic e uh activity wealth generation out there. And when we are presenting to investors, we are actually presenting to them not only because they're investors, but because they have children or grandchildren who need to adapt to this new world. And our mantra in giving away our research, which we do, is get on the right side of change.
We also do podcasts. Um we we try we do a lot of outreach because we think this is a very important moment in time. Uh seize the moment grab hold of these new technologies because that growth rate is more than twice where we've been and if you are on the right side of change we think the opportunities are going to be enormous uh investment opportunities and job opportunities.
According to Arch Invest's projections, real GDP growth could accelerate to 7.3% annually in the near term, not through traditional infrastructure, but through advancements in software, computation, and decentralized systems like Bitcoin. This shift could mark the fastest period of economic expansion in modern history.
ARK identifies Bitcoin and artificial intelligence as the two most disruptive technologies of our time, poised to deliver exponential efficiencies, unlock entirely new industries, and challenge the foundations of legacy systems. At the same time, developed nations are grappling with population decline, labor shortages, and rising dependency ratios, making productivity, not population growth, the key to sustaining living standards.
In this landscape, automation and decentralized finance will become essential drivers of economic resilience. And do you think in five 10 years from now that unemployment is going to be higher or lower? In five or 10 years, um let's let's assume we don't have a policy mistake and and a recession. So just just steady state, I think it will be the same or lower.
And most of this is because those baby boomers are retiring. Uh so they come out of the employ. They come out of the labor force and uh and the generations following them are smaller. Even now what's happening is uh we're we're passing through the baby boom echo, meaning the children of the baby boom.
That cohort was I don't think it was any bigger than the baby boom. uh the baby boom population. So I think what's going to happen and this will be very healthy for productivity. We're going to have a lot more experimentation and people taking risks on themselves. Uh and maybe this idea of a corporation as we know it is going to change radically.
You know crypto is enabling distributed autonomous organizations uh just like Bitcoin. there's there's no no one governing it, right? Uh that it's a distributed network and you know let's see how these do and how vibe co coding and AI integrate into the crypto I and I'm going to stop calling it crypto because this really should be called digital assets world which legitimizes it more.
Crypto sounds nefarious. digital assets is where you know more than young people and I'll say young people are spending more than half of their discretionary their free time online and so property ownership online is becoming more important it's it's being legitimized by the way people are spending their time I have many thoughts about this our government has become so bloated it is scary and uh our indebtedness is growing and if we want to remain the reserve currency of the world, we're at risk of of losing it.
And and on our tail is the whole digital asset world, right? Art Laugher, uh my professor again from USC, we had him uh we had him read our first white paper on Bitcoin. Bitcoin, could it serve the three roles of money? So, means of exchange, what we use every day uh to to buy things, store of value, uh like gold, and unit of account.
Would prices be quoted in terms of Bitcoin? Chris Berniski was our first analyst on Bitcoin, wrote the paper, art read it, and you know, from added to it enormously in terms of economic theory, which was great for us. And then he said to us, he said, "This is what I've been waiting for since the US closed the gold window in 1971, a rules-based global monetary system like Bretonwoods under the gold exchange standard." And I said, "Art, that's a very big idea.
how big is it? And he said, "Well, how big is the the monetary base of the US?" Back then it was 4.5 trillion and Bitcoin's market cap or network value was 6 billion. And I said, "Okay, that's a very big idea." And we were trying to get it into our portfolios. regulators were hesitant and uh but I bought it right then for for myself and haven't sold it and I'm very happy with it.
This is a new asset class and most people will agree with that. We we did a study on it. If this asset does not perform like other assets, in other words, it provides diversification for funds and because it is behaving differently, institutions have to consider it uh because they're competing against each other and if one puts it in, they all know they're competing against each other.
So others have to consider it. And uh we believe that part of the opportunity has not been tapped. And just to put some numbers on this, right now we're approaching 20 million Bitcoin outstanding, which means the number of Bitcoin that uh have been minted over time uh by Bitcoin miners. So there's 21 million in total, right?
There will be at the end of the minting process 21 million. So we have only 1 million to go. Yeah. Uh 1 million would be what is that? That would be a hundred billion dollar worth a little more than that right now. So, institutions really just started considering Bitcoin because the SEC gave the great uh the the green light uh to Bitcoin with uh the the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January of last year.
And it takes a while for institutions to do their research and and commit. Uh and so they're just now committing. And there's only a hundred billion dollar of new market cap uh that is going to be created whereas they have trillions of dollars under management. Um and so we think there will be a lot of incremental demand and uh to satisfy a lot of that demand someone's going to have to sell
which means the price goes up which yeah if people don't want to sell because Bitcoin's been awfully good and our forecast right now it's um right now the Bitcoin is around 100 105,000 our forecast uh for 2030 is $1.5 million. And we do that uh the building blocks for that, the three biggest building blocks are institutional, we just barely started, uh store of value or digital gold.
Young people are much more uh comfortable with digital gold than gold. Kathy Wood believes Bitcoin's disruption of the global financial system is still in its early stages. According to her projections, if institutional investors allocate just 2.5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, its price could soar past $1 million per coin by 2030.
This bold forecast is grounded in Arc Invest's analysis of global capital flows, limited supply, and long-term demand growth. As institutional access expands through regulated products like ETFs, and as trust in traditional monetary systems continues to erode, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly difficult to overlook as a core asset.
With its fixed supply and growing demand from both developed economies and inflation hit regions, Cathy envisions Bitcoin absorbing a significant share of global capital in the years to come. What do you think? Could she be right? Let me know .
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