저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
트릴리언 달러 규모 MMF 대기자금과 M2 유동성 회복이 주식시장 상승 동력. 연준이 금리를 인하하면 MMF 자금이 위험자산으로 이동해 S&P500 7,000 가능성 제기. 친구들(Friedberg)은 자산 인플레이션과 펀더멘털 취약을 경고, Sacks는 인플레 진정·연준 인하 지연을 주장. 중동 이란 리스크 해소 후 석유 공급 확대 및 아브라함 협정 확대 전망도 논의. 크립토는 유동성 복귀 시 수혜 예상.
다듬은 글
Look at how much money and again you can just look at the last five years. Look at how much money is sitting in money market funds. And what this starts to show you is you have trillions and trillions of dollars of dry powder on the sidelines that will need to find a home. There is enough data that can justify cutting rates.
If you cut rates, and we've talked about this before, two things will happen. Number one is people will take some amount of money out of the money market funds because they will want to go and seek superior returns somewhere else. It will increase the velocity of money at the same time. You put those two things together, that is a bid to the equity markets.
And so if we're at an all-time high today with rates at 4 and a.5% and Powell back against the wall to cut, the only road from here is probably up. Right now, trillions of dollars are parked quietly in money market funds, acting as dry powder waiting to be deployed. Billionaire investor Chamath Palahapidia warns that if the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, whether to respond to economic weakness or for political reasons, this capital could quickly flood back into the market.
He even suggests the SNP500 could surge to 7,000, signaling a major repricing of risk asset. Katha's view is shared, but also challenged by fellow all-in hosts David Friedberg and David Sack. Friedberg cautions that current market optimism may be more inflationdriven than based on real business fundamentals.
While Sax believes inflation has been tamed and the Fed is overdue for action. Still, Chamomath stands out by predicting a surge in the velocity of money and a market meltup if the Fed blinks. For crypto, this scenario could be transformative. If trillions of dollars leave money market funds in search of higher returns, Bitcoin and digital assets could benefit significantly from this inflow.
The Fed's next move may well be the catalyst that ignites the next bull run in crypto as capital chases yield across both traditional and digital market. This is how you buy and sell crypto the easy way using E Toro, one of the world's leading trading platforms. If you're new to crypto, E Toro makes it super simple.
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I'm not sure that equity market prices going up is necessarily the best indicator of where we are because we did have negative GDP growth in Q1. Arguably, there was a lot of tariff blipping happening in Q1, but there's a real question on this GDP growth outlook for the rest of this year, and we're still running a modest inflation.
Mhm. When you combine those two and you combine the government deficit right now, there's an argument to be made that we're actually seeing assets inflate, not necessarily. So, multiples are going up. I think that may actually be a result of kind of an indication that we expect rates to cut, that we expect to increase the money supply.
And um again, remember when you end up in this debt death spiral, all assets go up in value. they all increase because you start to flood things with cash and as you flood things with printed money when you start to print more money everything goes up in price. So one argument here might be that we're actually not necessarily seeing an improvement in the fundamental business environment.
We're not seeing record revenue across the board. As we talked about last week, the S&P 493 are really struggling relative to the uh MAG 7 and there's a really kind of questionable outlook ahead for the vast majority of equity cap out there. So I I would say that there might be a bit of an inflationary aspect to this, not necessarily just a pure like business performance upgrade that that we're saying.
Yeah. I mean, look, if I was a betting man, which I am, you are. I think the the free money trade here is to be levered long. I think you can make a lot of money right now. Why is that? The first chart I want to show you is the velocity of money. So what is this? This is the M2 money supply. It's a measure of how much money is circulating in the economy.
What this shows is the impact of rates where we were able to start to slow down and contract the money supply. But then as you saw as the economy stabilized and people started to project was possible in 18 to 24 months you started to see money coming back into the system that's what has given a bid to the equity markets.
That's great because a percentage of this capital gets allocated into things that can generate a superior return to money markets and that's where the bid to the equity market came from. So you would say well where does it go from here? The next chart, Nick, if you just give the second one, is look at how much money, and again, you can just look at the last five years.
Look at how much money is sitting in money market funds. And what this starts to show you is you have trillions and trillions of dollars of dry powder on the sidelines that will need to find a home. I think that Jerome Powell is in an increasingly untenuous situation because he will be looked at as politicizing the office of the Federal Reserve.
There is enough data that can justify cutting rates. If you cut rates, and we've talked about this before, two things will happen. Number one is people will take some amount of money out of the money market funds because they will want to go and seek superior returns somewhere else. It will increase the velocity of money at the same time.
You put those two things together, that is a bid to the equity markets. If we're at an all-time high today with rates at 4 and a.5% and Powell back against the wall to cut, the only road from here is probably up. And so you could see this thing get rerated quite aggressively. And then the question is, do you do it where you manage your risk and you're short some stuff or do you just say, you know what, I'm just just going to take it all up and take most of my shorts off and let the thing go.
I think that if Powell starts an aggressive cutting program, either because he has to or because he's trying to keep his job, I mean, man, you could see the S&P at 7,000. That's not the right way to look at it. The question is just what's the inflation rate relative to interest rates? And inflation has come down all the way to, I think, 2.4%.
So, it's way down. We're back to a two handle. I think inflation has largely been licked and it's time to start lowering interest rates, and that will be good for the economy. there's no reason for rates to be as high as they are. It' also be good in terms of financing our debt. So, I think that it is time for Pal to act and I think he's being overly cautious here.
He's being slow here. Just like he was slow to raise at the beginning of the cycle, he's being slow to cut at the end of the cycle. And again, I think he's just afraid of being proven wrong here. But I think that the timing is right to start the cuts. Now, to go back to the question of how do you trade this market?
I mean, I have a very simple idea, which is anytime that the media tries to seow doom or spread panic about the Trump administration's policies, that's a good time to buy. We saw this when Jim Kramer started touting the Black Monday that was coming and Larry Summers has been out there constantly with his TDS.
Whenever the media puts these experts on to tell you that there's chaos and doom, that has proven to be an excellent time to buy the dip. So I think this is a very easy way to trade the Trump president. As the conversation unfolds, three distinct perspectives come into focus. Chamath Palahapidia sees a perfect setup for risk assets, basing his thesis on liquidity dynamic with trillions sitting idle in money market funds and the velocity of money beginning to rise.
He believes we are nearing an inflection point. If the Fed starts cutting rates, and he argues there is enough data to justify it, capital will flow, potentially lifting not just equities, but markets across the board. David Friedberg takes a more cautious stance, warning that rising asset prices may not signal real economic strength, but rather a monetary distortion.
He suggests we might be witnessing the early stages of an inflationary feedback loop with slowing GDP growth, persistent inflation, and growing deficit. In his view, the surge in asset prices is less a true bull market and more a monetary mirage fueled by an influx of printed money. David Saxs offers a pragmatic middle ground, believing inflation is under control with CPI falling below two 5% and that the Fed is simply delaying action.
For him, it's not a question of if, but when Powell will cut rates, and when that happens, it should benefit both the economy and asset prices. Despite their differences, all three agree that something significant is on the horizon. For crypto investors, this means that when liquidity returns, capital will chase yield indiscriminately, whether in stocks, real estate, or Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for the next phase of the crypto cycle.
Beyond market dynamics, the conversation soon shifts to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, highlighting risks of an oil shock, broader conflict, and market disruptions. The fear that I had was that if there was um protracted conflict, what you effectively would see is a bunch of supply go offline and if that supply went offline and as long as the demand stayed even roughly the same, you would see prices go up.
My thought was the price of oil could double. I think Goldman had it slightly under a doubling. So that was definitely the the fear what folks had going into that weekend. But coming out of it, this is where I think you have to be very respectful of the fact that the market is really the sum of many, many, many millions of informed opinions.
And I think what they saw was that Iran was not really in a position to do anything but capitulate and give up. And I think that what they also saw, whether you agree with the Israeli policy or not, was that they had systematically gone from where they are and marched eastward. Essentially, they effectively decapitated Hamas.
They effectively decapitated Hezbollah. They effectively decapitated the Houthis. I think finally putting a nail in the coffin of this Iran nuclear ambition program was not just important for them but it's critical for Saudi and the UAE. You know MBS had an incredibly powerful quote which was if Iran gets a nuclear weapon we will have no choice but to get our own.
Right? So by taking all of that risk off the table, what you're now talking about is an enormous supply that could essentially service world productivity needs unhindered because it's not just Iranian supply. You're talking about Emirati supply and you're talking about Qatari supply and you're talking about Saudi supply.
So, I think what the market realized was, okay, now the Middle East is the closest it's ever been to fully monetizing the oil that they have and to invest aggressively into their own people. The second thing is that Steve Witoff spoke about the fact that you should expect the Abraham Accords to expand.
So if you think about that one-two punch, not necessarily from a geopolitical lens, but from an economic lens, the first punch is neutering the Iranians ability to be chaos monkeys in the region. But the second punch is the one that then now creates normalization across the region with Israel. It double and triples down the ability to monetize oil and start to invest those returns in future projects that have a much better ROI.
All of that leads to cheaper energy and Iran becomes the odd person out here in this new, you know, federation of people in the Middle East who want peace and normal relations. I think it's a phenomenal question, Jason, but I think that's what the market sniffed out and I think that's what the market is now saying like that this is a chapter that we can close and move on.
I think you have to look at it on a global basis. Iran exports $60 billion dollars a year and about 55 billion of that goes to China and that number is up from I believe sub 30% just a few years ago or sub 20%. So the relationship between Iran and China and the importance of that relationship to China's economy and productivity I think cannot be understated.
So independent of the United States on a global stage, the situation with the supply of energy and the partnership on energy with what is effectively the US's largest rival now is critical to take into account when doing the calculus on how to resolve forward here. Which is also why and I don't think that we have perfect information.
I don't think the public has been given perfect information about the statesmanship that's gone on between the United States and China or the conversations that gone on at a high level between the US and China or at a high level between the US and Russia regarding what is the right way to transition the region.
When I look at the region and when you'd hear about other leaders in that region speaking publicly, the King of Jordan, MBS from Saudi, the Omanis from Bahrain, all of the other leaders in that region, even the Qataris who seem to kind of try to straddle both sides here, they all seem to have a very strong imperative and incentive to modernize the Middle East, to bring those economies into the global stage, to bring them into kind of a modern economy.
Well, Jason, I know you've talked about this and you visited and the rest of us obviously have relationships there, but there's a strong demand and a strong interest in this region in modernizing. And that modernization is going to benefit the world because they will ultimately be net exporters. They will ultimately net net producers of things that everyone else will buy and participate in.
And they will also be very big consumers. They are already very big buyers of American technology and American businesses and also big financeers of global capitalism. In that context, I don't think it's just about, hey, we got to go get the oil, or hey, we got to go get the energy. It's about how do you balance China's need for energy, how do you balance the Russian incentives and how do you help the rest of that region modernize?
And I think that's where there's a very complex dance underway that we have very little insight into the details of those conversations. And I'm not going to just sit here and be like very flippant about, oh, we should do this or we should do that because there's a lot at play. And I think that that is in my opinion the net calculus, the bigger picture calculus that's underway in trying to transition the region.
Well, nuclear proliferation is not in our interest. We don't want more countries getting nuclear weapons. Obviously, some countries have them. But if you use that as the rationalization for everyone being able to have them, then you're going to end up with 200 countries have nuclear weapons. So, I think the nuclear non-prololiferation regime is in the interest of the United States.
We all understand the danger of these weapons. the more countries that have them, the more dangerous the world becomes. Now, it is true that unofficially the Israelis have nuclear weapons, but like you were saying before, if Iran gets nukes, then Saudi Arabia will be forced to get nukes and so on down the line.
And so, there will be a domino effect with each country that gets nuclear weapons. More countries around them will feel the need that are threatened to have their own deterrent. And the question is just where you stop this. And I think we just want to stop it here. We don't want more countries getting nuclear weapons, particularly ones that we have hostile relations with.
As the dust settles across markets and global politics, one thing becomes clear. We are living through a massive period of transition. From trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines ready to flow into risk assets to central banks nearing a potential policy pivot and a Middle East entering a new era of energy dominance and modernization.
The world is shifting beneath our feet. Chamath sees this coming wave as a generational opportunity. Friedberg warns against confusing inflation with genuine growth. And Saxs reminds us that fear in the headlines often masks a hidden by signal. For crypto investors, the message is unmistakable. When liquidity returns and global capital reorganizes, Bitcoin and digital assets don't stay on the sidelines.
We are witnessing the early signs of what could become the next explosive phase, not just for equities, but also for decentralized finance and alternative stores of value. This moment signals a potential reshaping of the financial landscape where crypto plays an increasingly central role. The big question now is, are you positioned for this shift?
Share your thoughts in the comments. Do you agree with Katha's bold prediction of Insanp 500 hitting 7,000? And what does all this mean for crypto as we head into Q3? video.
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