저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 50bp 금리인하를 AI/기술주에 강세 신호로 보며, 1조 달러 규모 AI 캡엑스가 향후 3년간 이어진다고 주장. 엔비디아 시총 4조 달러 도달 전망, 기술주 1년 내 25~30% 상승 가능성 제시. AMD도 AI 수혜주로 언급. 수요가 공급을 15:1로 초과한다고 근거 제시. 버블 우려에는 사용 사례 폭증을 들어 반박. 자막 일부는 분석 기사성 낭독이 섞여 있음.
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for that we want to welcome in our next guest Dan IES managing director equity research wedbush Securities Dan it is so great to talk to you you know we always love having you on I saw you out at a conference recently I saw pictures of you I should say I wasn't there um but let's talk and and you look like you were having a great time um but let's talk about the rate cut the 50 basis point a lot of people were not expecting that I'll confess myself included were you expecting 50 bips or were you in the 25 Camp I'm our our view is this was going to be the FED ripping the bandaid off I mean you know in terms of cuton 50 bips I think was a huge first step to what's going to be just a massive doish stance over the next 12 to 18 months and for Tech investors that's a risk on trade it's bullish that's why today a lot of those bears that have been out for the last month after you know a few years in hibernation mode they're going back into those caves this morning it certainly seems that way I mean you've got markets hitting new all-time highs today we're looking at the S&P 500 continuing to advance NASDAQ 100 uh really rallying today how does this impact the AI trade in your view through the balance of the Year oh I think Tech rips higher I mean rest of the year look first off you have a trillion dollars of AI driven capb backs coming to Tech over the next c three years and that fundamental story and we just got back from Asia and and that's accelerating not decelerating so I think it shows demands out Supply 15 to1 Tech AI names I believe rip higher into year end and I think going 2025 now you're going to see more second third derivatives of that trade even small caps starting to participate now I continue to believe it's 900 P PM in the AI party that goes to 4 a.m.
in the Whirlwind world of stock markets the name Nvidia has been generating Buzz once again and analysts like Dan Ives are telling the Bears to go back to hibernation after a remarkable 150% surge in the first half of 2024 Nvidia faced a slump as rumors about its new AI chips began to swirl and investors grew uneasy yet recent developments and high profile endorsements might just be turning the tide notably Nvidia has key players like Microsoft Amazon and Oracle rallying in its Corner let's delve into why Nvidia stock could be primed for another record breaking ascendency before the year is out but what exactly is driving this optimism and how do the intricate dynamics of the tech World play into nvidia's storyline let's explore further nvidia's historical performance and influential Market presence have always caught the eye of stock enthusiasts and analysts alike whether it's the steady rise in computational demands or breakthrough AI applications nvidia's Innovative prowess stands at the technology Frontier in assessing why it remains a juggernaut it is essential to unpack the series of strategic moves and market conditions that continue to steer its stock price welcome back everyone to investra so it goes to 4:00 a.m.
what you know we've heard the analogy before in terms of uh innings for the AI trade are we still in the early Innings from your view because you had started to see some commentary about okay things are maturing are we going to start to see the second case the use case for AI uh and that's kind of what investors were looking to hear more of okay what's the use case now yeah and that's what look at the messy of AI pound here I mean that's front and center in terms of the use cases use cases are exploding today I mean we have fourx amounted use cases then we did going back called four or five months ago that's why you seeing the strength and service now Oracle I believe ultimately you'll see strength in Salesforce and a lot other software names because now the use case the software fees of AI is starting to play out let's talk a little bit about Nvidia uh the shares are higher as I guess can be expected today especially when you see this big risk on tray what does that tell you about where Nvidia stands and you know kind of some of the naysayers uh recently yeah the haters are going to hate but I mean we just got back from Asia and demand continues to accelerate and and like I said demands out sh and Supply 15 to one you start to look at Godfather of AI Jens and Nvidia this is just the start of the AI Revolution we believe a year from now Nvidia is a $4 trillion Mark cap nvidia's Journey has been nothing short of extraordinary in the ever volatile stock market it is companies like Nvidia that keep investors on the edge of their seats after hitting a snag midyear rumors began circulating about potential delays in the release of their latest data center AI chips the these Whispers left analysts questioning the longevity of nvidia's dominance as its top customers appeared to reconsider their billion dooll spends on AI however could the storm be clearing according to the company's recent announcements nvidia's unveiling of its new Blackwell gpus has reignited investor optimism the new architectural Marvel the Blackwell based gb200 nvl 72 system promises to outperform its predecessor the h100 by a staggering 30 times in AI inference tasks priced between $3,000 and $40,000 per GPU it offers unprecedented cost efficiency which is likely to set off a frenzy among data center operators CEO Jensen hang's remarks provide a wealth of insight into the potential impact he highlighted that global data center operators could spend a staggering 1 trillion dollar on GPU infrastructure over the next few years in a striking statement hang mentioned that nvidia's gpus could generate $5 in Revenue per every dollar spent by renting computing power to AI developers it's no surprise then that technology behemoths like Microsoft Amazon and Oracle are in a headlong rush to procure as many of these chips as possibl $4 trillion market cap I mean that's a huge statement to make uh what's the thesis behind that for NVIDIA hitting that level I mean look you have a trillion dollars of AI driven capex they're the only game in town numbers We Believe go up significantly higher I think the Street's still underestimating in terms of what ultimate demand looks like here and I think as this all plays out it is not an expensive stock and I think when you look next six1 12 months not just about Nvidia but I think rest of tech you know we believe Tech could be up 25 30% over the next year can AMD catch up at all to Nvidia look Lisa Su you never bet against T I mean they will be a clear beneficiary in terms on the chip side I mean a lot of that we won't see probably for another 18 months but I don't believe lot that AI is being built into AMD I think AMD is going to be a clear beneficiary and look this is a big enough ocean for more than two boats I mean we are seeing a 1995 almost 1996 moment but this is not a 199 1999 Tech bubble moment I think that's why a lot of the Bears are going back in the hibernation mode nvidia's performance numbers are equally riveting the financial figures for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 reported a record $ 26.3 billion in data center Revenue an astonishing increase of 154% from the previous year this growth could have been even more astronomical if not for Supply constraints these numbers not only silence critics but also paint a vibrant picture of nvidia's robust demand stock market enthusiasts will appreciate the nuanced valuation story that Nvidia presents despite trading 15% below its peak nvidia's stock valuation based on its trailing 12-month earnings per share of $2.20 places its PE ratio at 52.5 this might seem steep when compared to the broader Tech sector 30.8 PE ratio represented by the NASDAQ 100 yet the forward-looking nature of the market paints a different picture wall Street forecasts nvidia's fiscal 26 earnings at $42 per share reducing its forward PE ratio to a more appealing 28.7 Microsoft's oracles and meta platforms plans to amplify their kpec spending on AI underscore the bullish sentiment surrounding Nvidia their status as vital Nvidia customers provides a degree of certainty to nvidia's potential Financial outcomes next year it's not just about the present it's about the long-term Horizon that makes nvidia's stock particularly enticing taking all of these factors into account the prospects for nvidia's stock make it a tantalizing option for investors primed for future gains investing in Nvidia therefore isn't merely about riding the current wave but envisaging the growth trajectory rooted in technological advancements as the AI landscape continues to evolve Nvidia is likely to remain at the Forefront shaping the future of computing and Data Systems the company's strategic move moves Partnerships and ongoing R&D Investments signal a strong commitment to maintaining its industry-leading position for those watching from the sidelines now may very well be the opportune moment to join this thrilling ride the Market's Dynamic nature teaches us that opportunities like these don't come often and when they do they can redefine an Investor's portfolio Outloo you say the Bears are going back into hibernation mode but is this just a moment because there have been critics who say this is you know they worry about a bubble for AI um why why aren't you worried because we see the spending I mean you see the use cases I I believe this is It's the biggest transformation we've seen in Tech in the last 35 40 years it is a fourth Industrial Revolution playing out this is not hype it is real and I think we see that more and more with data points whether it's Oracle paler service now we see it but I believe Salesforce and others this is just the start of this AI Revolution obviously being led by Godfather B Jens and Nvidia nadell and Redmond but it is not sto it's not stopping and also the Bears have hated this rally for the last two years and I I think it's just going to be another painful year ahead for the Bears Nvidia currently finds itself trading below its record but poised for a potential leap with the impending roll out of the Revolutionary Blackwell gpus and unwavering demand from Tech Giants including Microsoft Oracle and meta platforms the future looks promising as Nvidia keeps pushing the envelope on AI and data center Technologies the stock holds vast potential to Surge past its previous high of $1 13558 by the end of 2024 so what's your take on nvidia's latest advancements and the Market's Dynamic response do you foresee Nvidia rising to new heights or do the headwinds appear formidable to you share your thoughts and join the conversation in capturing the pulse of the stock market whether you're a seasoned investor or a curious Observer the evolving Nvidia narrative is one that you cannot afford to miss as it continues to shape the Contours of tomorrow's technological landscape engaging in these discussions not only provides diverse perspectives but also deepens our understanding of Market fluctuations and future possibilit
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