저자: Kevin · 외국인
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7월 첫째 주 주요 경제지표(공장주문, PMI, JOLTS, 연준 의사록, 고용보고서, CPI)를 앞두고 침체 우려를 제기. 발표 예정 지표 중 JOLTS 급락 시 경기침체 확인 가능성, 연준 금리 인상 기대와 Atlanta Fed GDPNow 음수 전망 언급. 비트코인은 이중천장(더블탑) 패턴으로 13,000 부근 하락 가능성 시사. 전반적으로 비관적 톤이나 구체적 자산 방향은 명시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
mportant calendar dates coming up in projections for those important calendar dates you're not gonna want to miss writing these down because they're gonna be big catalysts potentially number two very ugly because we've got a disastrous number that just came out and number three a tiny little bit of technical analysis on some good old crypto but first comment down below if you would like me to do a review of any particular ticker symbol that you have questions about and i recommend before you comment it or maybe after you comment it look to see if somebody else has voted that ticker symbol up because i'm going to look at the top ticker symbols in about a couple hours and then i'll probably do at least a commentary video on it or maybe some kind of deeper review on it we'll see let's have fun with it let's see if you all want to get back into some of the fundamental analysis which right now we pretty much exclusively do in our course member live streams every single day which you can use for july 4th coupon code fireworks the prices will be going up so use coupon code fireworks and get in before the prices go up again somebody left a comment the other day they're like i don't believe that the prices really go up and then they went to the wayback machine you know that website where you can kind of go back into different time zones or like past dates and they're like oh my gosh he ain't lying the prices really go up but folks the good news is this video is brought to you by public then you can go to medkevin.com public and get one sign up don't get payment for order flowed and use public follow me there at me kevin and folks let's get into the video so first july 5th which is tomorrow we get factory orders we're expecting a half percent month-over-month increase that's up from 0.3 percent in the prior month if we we'd like to see factory orders coming strong this is a good sign for global gdp and especially with the potential of a rebound in china which is leading a lot of folks to flock to chinese etfs and speculate on the chinese consumer rebounding after lockdowns which in my opinion has a risk of being a temporary sort of reopening play but then a longer term drag is the chinese consumer is still faced with developers all around their country going bankrupt thanks to the real estate crisis in china i don't know how much i'm excited to bet on the chinese consumer but i do think there are some short-term catalysts to see some big movements here especially since media all across the world is reporting that well hey china might actually help global gdp stay propped up and maybe the globe can stay out of a recession just because of china so factory orders july 5th 7 a.m more interestingly and then we'll get to the scary ones we get some things on july 6 like the purchaser man purchasing managers indices there are two well in this case we're getting two reported services and composite services is expected to come in at 51.6 any number above 50 means growth composite expected to come in at 51.2 which is the same as the prior uh prior reads those come in at 6 45 am and we get some good ones okay the first thing we're going to get is at 7 a.m we're going to get the new jolts numbers this is the job openings set of data and we're expecting job openings to come in at 11 million job openings that's still still probably somewhere around 1.8 times the job openings per unemployed people that we have so even though we're down from 1.9 job openings per unemployed person we're really not seeing a big drop off here in job openings however we've recently started seeing layoffs and so there are wonders that hey if this number misses bad and let's say it comes in at oh my gosh a bunch of job openings were cancelled and it comes in at let's say 10 million or something ridiculously low could that be a sign that affirms a recession is indeed coming which remember what is terrible in a recession is a firm in fact the first day i bought a firm i said this is a great play for an expanding economy terrible play for a recession who would have thought at that point which was like last october that we would we'd be talking about or potentially in the midst of a recession just the short six to nine months later oh well anyway the federal uh that jolts uh number comes in at seven am followed by at 11 a.m the federal reserve's minutes hmm oh we love getting the minutes from the fed because this is where we can get an idea as to how aggressive is the fed gonna get here what are we gonna be looking for we're gonna be looking to see are we getting any kind of estimates in terms of what's their terminal rate are we looking at 3.25 probably not anymore we're probably looking at somewhere between 3.75 and four and a quarter in terms of the fed's terminal rate for the fed's funds rate in case you don't know what that means it means we have a lot of pain ahead of us and the higher number that is the worse so we're going to be looking for hints are we going to be getting another 75 in july maybe maybe not are we going to be getting 50 or 25s towards the end of the year right and these are the questions that that will try to glean from the federal reserve's minutes again mark your calendar that is wednesday at 11 a.m all of these times pacific standard time now at the moment markets are pricing in a 93.3 chance of the federal reserve giving us a 75 basis point rate hike in july so maybe the minutes will just be another backward-looking tool however maybe we're not looking for only rate hints maybe we're also going to be looking for hints on hey do you see any actual signs of inflation potentially peaking based on the estimates that we're seeing from the from what's happening in markets sure we see some sectors in terms of commodity prices decreasing but folks you don't even want to know what the bloomberg consensus is for inflation coming up and when i say bloomberg consensus i don't mean like one company's consensus i mean all the consensus together averaged into a consensus okay when i tell you what that cpi projection is you're probably gonna vomit stay tuned it's coming up in about two minutes okay so uh wednesday july 6th that will be a busy day again we'll get uh pmi uh the bigger ones are gonna be jolts and fed minutes jolts for recession fears fed for dude like any any sign of hope with you all like anything anything july 8th we'll get uh july 8th is friday we got some big catalysts coming up on this one just a three business days prior to the cpi release three business days prior to the cpi release what are we gonna get we're gonna get the federal or the unemployment rate bureau of labor statistics unemployment we rate that is expected to come in at 3.6 which is the same as the last month's unemployment rate we are expecting to get a five percent year-over-year and month-over-month 3.3 gain in average hourly earnings if we miss on average hourly earnings and average hourly earnings come in at like a 0.4 0.5 or worse like a 0.6 or 0.7 that's great for workers absolutely terrible for markets we are expecting the labor force participation rate to take up one-tenth of one percent but that's not what people are going to be looking at people are going to be looking at that 5 30 a.m release friday morning of 0.3 percent for the month over month hourly earnings friday morning something also quite entertaining happens i go on vacation now we'll be back and forth so we won't be won't be you know straight uh it's it's probably the longest vacation yet and uh in case you're new around here let's get you into the tune here so take a look at this beginning of october i decide i'm to dye my hair green what does that do it leads to this beautiful rally in the stock market that lasts until mid-november which is where we peak out right around november 23rd and 24th i had so much green around me stock screen net worth is at the highest level it's ever been green hair everything's green i'm like crap i need a change and right before i went on vacation to mexico what did i do i decided to dye my hair red november 25th i dye my hair red and folks what immediately follows as i dye my hair red well we start getting some volatility we start getting some pain i go on vacation the market drops in december and we're like oh man like december's getting uh it to be a little rocky we're not hitting all them all-time highs again right then i go on a vacation right before my birthday in january what happens weep there's my birthday my birthday's right there where the mouse is on january 28th yeah sorry about that so uh we thought okay well hey like no worries right like it can't get much worse right sure kevin can go to back to back vacations by going to florida and then going to florence italy and that could lead to weep yeah so uh i'm sorry in advance i'm i'm giving you notice as much as possible here but uh yeah i i'm gonna be uh i'm gonna be gone uh and out of town for for a little bit uh actually like the rest of the month starting on the eighth and again you know some back and forth and stuff but yeah sorry about that in advance just i just wanted to let you know yeah maybe i need to tie my hair green again before i go oh but anyway uh then at least at least we have uh the cpi numbers that we can look forward to and boy oh boy look forward to we can so uh inflation we thought peaked at eight point like four eight point five percent the last three we got eight point six percent were like oh god it hasn't peaked oh folks don't worry the bloomberg consensus if last month was 8.6 on screen i don't even want to say it it's on screen it was 8.6 and then that was last month when we thought oh my gosh this is hell like this is bad the consensus now is that it's going to come in at 8.8 percent year over year and not only that but the month over month is gonna go from one percent to one point one percent yeah month over month which would be an annualized inflation rate of 13.2 we're doing just fine folks everything is just fine don't worry july's gonna be a great month especially since everyone's betting on a fed u-turn oh but don't worry at least we have good news and that the atlanta fed estimate is doing pretty decently see take a look at this the atlanta fed estimate says don't worry analysts across the board think we're good with gdp we'll have gdp somewhere around three percent and we're fine that's the blue line here it was analysts in general thinking everything's going to be fine well the atlanta fed real gdp indicator has um has been a little more bearish here at one point dropping to nearly zero percent but don't worry folks the atlanta fed gdp now estimate is now oh dear it is uh more than negative two percent yeah it's it's under negative two for gdp which if that's the case for q2 and we just got a downward revision on q1 gdp then we probably already are in a recession and not only are we probably already in a recession but this recession's probably going to last a little longer than folks were hoping but don't worry folks at least at least we could do some technical analysis on bitcoin because see this is what we call a double top and usually what we do we look at a double top is we look at how low was it on the left and how long was it on the right to get to some kind of equilibrium and uh oh oh oh god oh god that's that's in like the btc 13 000 never mind folks get yourself a free stock with public use coupon code of fireworks join the programs on building your wealth let me show you and teach you my way of doing fundamental analysis in a recession folks now is the time to be doing fundamental analysis and even if you watch the live streams and you're like i'ma do the opposite at least you'll pick up some things along the way and you'll learn folks thank you so much for watching happy 4th of july and hello kitty
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