저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
2022년 7월 테슬라 2분기 인도량(약 25.4만대)이 추정치보다 소폭 낮았고 상하이 봉쇄 영향으로 어려운 분기였다고 진단. 다만 S/X 생산 증가와 가격 인상(딜러 마진 대신 테슬라가 수익 취득)으로 마진 개선 기대. 자율주행 규제·레이오프 등 리스크를 언급하며, 2025년 580만대 인도·P/E 33~66배 가정 시 연 12~33% 수익률을 제시. 본인이 직접 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here tesla just reported a quarter two deliveries after the most challenging quarter in tesla's history following some intense shanghai lockdowns the likes of which tesla hasn't had to experience before at least not to this severity well folks delivery estimates have been cut from quarter one in quarter one we delivered just over three hundred and five thousand vehicles and this pacing becomes very important because that's about 100 000 vehicles per month within a three-month quarter now we delivered slightly less than that i'm going to show you the estimates versus the actual deliveries i'm going to talk to you about what i think of this as an investment as a potential investment opportunity now of course i want to be crystal clear this is impersonal information and this is not financial advice for you and your portfolio but i will be reviewing some examples of rates of returns that someone might expect from tesla if certain conditions are met but first let's go through some of the delivery figures so here we go we have vehicle production and a deliveries adjust out of this morning over 258 a thousand vehicles were produced and there were deliveries of over 254 000 you could see that number right here 254 700.
the estimates came in slightly higher than that and these estimates really depend on which company or researcher you look at for example factsat came in at 263 000. bloomberg was closer to 268 000 and other estimates were around 255 000 along the lower end now folks see this number right here the s and x deliveries this number i actually think is quite fascinating and the reason for that is in the last quarter we delivered 14 700 s's and x's and despite shanghai being shut down it looks like we're still able to ramp production of the s's and x's this is likely because many of these are produced the fremont facility in california but i like seeing the increase from 14 700 to 16 162.
that represents an almost a 10 increase in the production for s and x vehicles which these are higher margin vehicles right even a few extra thousand of these are going to help us push up margins at the company and of course we know that margins at tesla are the most important thing it's one of the things and one of the reasons that tesla has the price to earnings multiple that it does but remember folks this is not just a car company and this is some of the other information that we have to talk about so if we go ahead and look at some projections going forward because i actually think hey you know what after q2 that's probably going to be the roughest quarter as long as we don't have another crazy kind of shanghai style outbreak where xi jinping decides to shut down the country again he just left the country for the first time since prior to the pandemic and visited hong kong uh which is saying that's not really leaving the country okay he's still open china but i understand that hong kong is obviously separate it's an autonomous region but we're not getting into politics here the point is that finally it seems like he's relaxing a little bit on some of the crazy covet zero policies although he's declaring victory over kovid so maybe the argument here is well if we see cases come back so will his uh harshness and his attitude right it's easy to declare victory when cases are down after some crazy lockdowns if those problems come back we'll have bigger problems so there are future risks to other quarters that we could still have shutdowns in china especially for tesla and so that would be very bad but if we do look past this second quarter now this second quarter's eps its earnings per share is going to be less than what we had in the first quarter likely at least unless we had some crazy kind of margin movement i mean the 50 000 fewer vehicles were brought in and we're ramping giga berlin and giga austin texas it's very unlikely eps is going to be anywhere near like what we had in q1 but of course before we get into some long-run projections we would be silly not to address some of the fun that's going on with tesla right now first we've got investigations into autopilot across pretty much the entire world even here in america multiple accidents are being partially blamed on either the driver or on the autopilot system especially in scenarios where autopilot tends to degrade such as heavy weather uh which could be heavy snow heavy rain or whatever different types of terrains right so these are problems because in the future we could end up seeing autopilot investigations lead to limitations of autopilot features which could potentially make tesla you know autopilot software and it's sweet less desirable for people to pay for either as an a la carte option which tesla's now option uh offering a few different options one for six thousand dollars and one for twelve thousand dollars for different levels of advanced driving assistance software or adas uh but we could also see just the limitation like what we've seen in europe where vehicles teslas can have a navigation route set and if you have it on navigate on autopilot the vehicle will drive on the highway overtake vehicles that are driving too slowly change out of the fast lane drive as a human should on the freeway with reasonable safety and care maintaining distance to other vehicles and it will actually move to an exit lane and exit the highway for you without intervention europe now wants uh individuals to verify that the car should do so by you know hitting the blinker again or whatever and sort of this extra step has been layered on but it's interesting to me that a lot of the fud that we see around autopilot implies that the whole thing is just going to get scrapped when i think the reality is these investigators deal with so many auto accidents they realize that the death rate of someone in a vehicle driving under an autopilot system is somewhere around a 10 x fewer than the death rate of someone just driving themselves in a regular vehicle so i actually personally think regulation for the autopilot industry is great and it's wonderful that tesla can be a forerunner in this field now of course this has brought up thoughts about hey but what about the layoffs on the autopilot team yeah well from what we know these are labelers who have been laid off and there's an idea that tesla perhaps has gotten to this level of advanced computer labeling to where they actually don't need humans to tell the computer anymore this is a stop sign this is a ballard they can now use computers and process tens of thousands of images per second rather than labelers processing maybe one image a second going yep stop sign bullard traffic light right this is good this is all part of the advancing nature of uh tesla's autopilot now some folks are wondering hey but what about this argument that elon musk makes fun of them and says well the investigators are the fun police well i mean this has to do with the fact that the fun police says we can't have a boombox as our horn for when we honk so okay all right i understand it was kind of entertaining for while it lasted i used to drive by um cops who were kind of just hanging out at the side of the road and i'd i'd play my horn this is wonderful okay these are probably not things you should do these are probably things that are going to get you in trouble anyway or just distract other people so i get it of course elon musk in a recent interview suggested hey but you know uh we're the only auto company other than ford that hasn't gone bankrupt in america and uh right now we've got these furnaces they're like money pit furnaces of giga berlin and giga taxes and if you listen to insider reports from these factories they're chaos these factors are complete chaos but honestly chaos is what you would expect at a new factory in fact most startups are quite frankly chaos uh i am starting a massive real estate company with a little slice and hint of sass which more details to come on that you could actually sign up for more information by going to kevin.com series a when we have more information we'll send it out we're very excited about that expecting to launch somewhere around august uh first for course members only for about a 30-day window as sort of a first round so if your course member you'll have an opportunity to jump in there uh but anyway so this bankruptcy argument looked tesla's got over 17 billion dollars in cash and we expect that each uh a factory giga berlin gigatexas could take somewhere around five billion dollars to fully build and and uh potentially up to eight billion dollars to fully ramp uh and uh we're not expecting that tesla's going to run out of cash because they actually are a positive cash flowing company they make money every quarter now we expect they're going to make less money this quarter because they delivered less vehicles but see the beautiful thing about tesla actually making money is every single day that goes by more cash is going in than is leaving now we'll take a look at the cash flow statements this quarter when they come out on july 20th to see if anything has shifted how much are these companies or these these factories really burning at this point where we're in the ramp phase so there is a potential that if we start seeing a negative cash flow there could be a big adverse reaction on stock valuation because folks do believe that if tesla has negative cash flow tesla's going to have to raise money by maybe doing a bond offering or issuing stock if at tesla is positive cash flow or cash flow positive then maybe we don't have to do that we just need to deliver more cars which is what the trajectory is is delivering more cars in fact one of the most beautiful things about the numbers release that we got from tesla this morning was they said that in july tesla produced more vehicles than they have ever produced before well in the first quarter we were on pace of delivering 100 000 vehicles per month then that means maybe perhaps july could be somewhere at let's just be let's be let's be very generous here let's say tesla produced 150 000 vehicles well at 150 000 vehicles in one month potentially this could be 120 it could be 125 and quite frankly it probably is but at 150 000 this would put tesla on pace for think about it 1.8 million vehicle deliveries falling off the board there 1.8 million vehicles per year right 1.8 million per year the current projections have tesla delivering somewhere around 1.4 million and so if we can ramp to a pace where wow we're actually exceedingly coming out of q2 with a substantial and successful ram then we're gonna have good things coming to tesla yeah but what about layoffs i mean why would a successful company one that's ramping lay off 10 of their workforce well here's the thing if we're going into an actual recession then companies need to pivot and they need to pivot early in fact if companies pivot too late then they suffer and what that means is if there are early warning signs of a recession coming companies coming out of a boom time should be trimming the fat they should be laying off for workers whom they really don't need that might mean increasing worker productivity at those who remain but it's very important to do this in fact i felt this in my own business in december i hate to say it but in december we felt uh oh we're getting a little bit too fat we have too many people for the workload that we have right now i'm a big fan of trimming expenses i don't like having a lot of expenses so we had to unfortunately lay off three of our workers now i wasn't expecting this but in april two additional workers went on to an opportunity in another area and whether or not that worked out for them doesn't matter it's not the point of this video but what the point is is that we now have a very lean staff and this is really important because it makes it a lot easier to survive going into a recession to invest in new technology in the business and to also launch new companies and new business ventures or new products which are really important especially if you could do those with fewer people so i'm a big fan of this because you want to see companies with increasing earnings during a recession not decreasing earnings this becomes critical for tesla because there are real expectations that we are going to be going through what's known as an earnings recession an earnings recession is both when top line revenue year over year comparing quarters is negative like we've already seen at nike we've seen negative year-over-year growth of about negative one percent over at nike earnings tend to also then decline in fact earnings over at nike are down about five percent year over year and when we see these sorts of negatives what do we end up getting well we get a reduction of multiples because what are you no longer doing you're no longer actually growing both revenue or earnings you're actually contracting and this is miserable for for example your peg ratio which takes the combination of your pe and your growth but don't worry so much about that what's important to know here is that layoffs are actually a good thing to prevent some of the pain of going through an earnings recession so with that said we should now get to some of our projections for tesla and decide okay well do we think there's the potential for tesla to actually be a good investment uh in this uh in this sort of environment well let's take a look if we project out to 2025 this would be uh ramping obviously tesla vehicles from about a 1.5 let's draw right here from about 1.4 million vehicles which is estimated for 2022 to a substantial ramping of somewhere around in 2023 will probably have to be if we grow this at 50 percent maybe even 60 percent no more shanghai lockdowns uh then then we could be somewhere around 2.2 2.3 if we get to 2024 we could do that same kind of 50 growth rate hopefully we could be around 3 point i don't know 8 9 let's go with 9 here going for a little bit more than fifty percent uh and then another fifty percent on top of this is almost two right and so that's how you get to 2025 of about 5.8 million vehicles deliveries i've delivered obviously we have to have demand for this which right now it actually does seem like there is demand for tesla's in a substantial degree one of the things that uh folks do say though is oh but why then are people buying hyundai's you know bloomberg was just reporting that a bunch of hyundai evs are being bought that they're outpacing ford's ev sales and they just launched their vehicles well one of the problems you have right now that's quite ironic is there's so much demand for evs that people are actually quite impatient for them and therefore they're just picking up a legacy vehicle rather than waiting for a tesla because they don't want to wait the three to nine months they decided they want a new car and they want a new car this weekend and historically that's always been something that somebody has been able to do especially older demographics they don't like to wait for cars they want their car now which is ironic because usually people make fun of millennials for being impatient but uh yeah you check out you check out the older demos when it comes to buying a car it's like i'm shutting them on a car i'm going now anyway so look at this if we have revenue per vehicle of about 52 000 here in uh 2025 which is absolutely possible especially with the separating of uh the two different eight ass levels six thousand price option twelve thousand price option that might even get more expensive in the future there are some real opportunities here at 5.8 million vehicles we're going to have revenues of over 300 billion dollars in revenue now i'm going to take about 2.7 percent in leases i think in the last report we were closer to about 4 that's okay though we'll go with about 2.7 there we've got uh servicing revenue which is usually a break even energy revenue and total revenue is somewhere around 355 uh billion now the reason i put a bunch of zeros here and i want you to see this right here okay see all these zeros right here uh i call this actually my personal margin of safety okay this is a very uh warren buffett approach although i we know that warren buffett isn't into tesla a margin of safety is a way of saying hey i know a company can face i know that a company might grow faster than i expect but i want to be conservative in my analysis and even though i might match tesla's growth estimates of 50 to 60 in their deliveries going forward let's be conservative and just say tesla makes absolutely zero money and by 2025 in insurance semi trucks robo taxis tesla optimus robot or third-party fsd licensing any of these extra things we're just going to call that part of the margin of safety and we're going to call that bonus i'm a big fan of that and i think anytime you do a fundamental analysis you should always include a margin of safety if you do a fundamental analysis and you get to the point where you're having to include absolutely everything then uh and then you're still trying to stretch the valuation it's a red flag that maybe the company's a little overvalued in fact i did a fundamental analysis on a square in our course member group about a year ago and i'm like oh my gosh even using like generous estimates for revenue and generous multiples i can't justify this valuation it's hard like i'm stretching to justify this valuation when you're stretching to justify evaluation you could be setting yourself up for a big old fall and obviously we saw uh square took a nice little tumble so uh okay let's uh now get to a margin so these are expenses here the most important thing obviously we know this over and over again that we want to watch for is right here it is the 30 percent uh margin gross margin on vehicles or 70 expense ratio critically important we actually have projections now that this could go as high from their wall street projections that this could go as high as 32 to 34 should be remarkable and and again seeing the s and x deliveries go up gives me some optimism for for some higher margins and then of course if we can sell more adas or we sell vehicles at higher premiums then that's great see remember right now there are maybe not so much right now anymore but towards the end of last year and still to some degree we see it this year there are auto manufacturers that will sell and deliver a prius to let's say dch toyota okay so dch toyota this is an auto group right like a private equity kind of a group of investors who run a company of uh vehicle uh sales departments and repair departments service and sales right those two big things this is going to a dealership right and you might see that the toyota prius is selling for an msrp of let's say 38 000 msrp but what happens is the dealer puts on a markup of ten thousand dollars last year maybe this year it's it's uh two thousand dollars or whatever and they call it the dealer markup okay so the dealer markup this extra money is money that is going to dch toyota unfortunately toyota themselves this right here is not benefiting from that dealer markup and so that means even though dealers can charge more money because they have fewer volumes and maybe they need to charge more money to survive because again fewer volumes you know you make five thousand dollars on one vehicle or 500 on 10 vehicles but you don't have 10 vehicles right now you you charge a dealer markup because you have to survive you gotta pay the bills you gotta have the showroom going right tesla doesn't have this this this extra layer and this is something that's easily forgotten over at tesla that extra ten thousand dollars in dealer markup that goes straight to tesla and this is why they're raising prices right and that's going to help margin i suspect quite substantially because we've had quite a few increases on these now so let's now talk about rates of return what if tesla which currently has a 66 price to earnings ratio maintains that going into 2025.
now first of all why would it well maybe today's price to earnings multiple is depressed it's 2022 price to earnings multiples about 60 to 66 what if that's depressed because we're in a recession well that means it could be higher in the future what if we end up proving that elon musk can ramp shanghai its expansion berlin and texas all at the same time as building a plant in indonesia and mining for lithium and potentially planning new gigafactories in texas or florida or even expansions in china even beyond shanghai well then folks the 66 price to earnings ratio could actually be quite reasonable but i think everything's going to come down to how well tesla's able to prove that it's going to get to 20 million vehicles per year which sounds quite lofty and in 2025 we'll know are we on that trajectory or not now that multiple is not going to last forever at some point it will converge to 30 at some point it'll converge to 20 and and then sit around maybe where google and facebook are which is closer to 14 to 15 right so multiple is everything here but at today's price of 690 dollars for tesla if you have a multiple of 66 in 2025 folks tesla stock price should be 2 200 that represents an annual rate of return of 33.57 in four years every single year for four years you would probably exceed the return of the s p 500 by over 25 compounded annually for the next five years now there are a lot of folks who make fun of people who say why would you only be in tesla that's so stupid that's so stupid to only be in tesla and i'm not saying i'm only in tesla i'm just saying there are people who are like why would i pick any other company and there's a rationale behind this uh er that is to be in in tesla in this type of environment and it has to do with something known as an immature company effect and now we're going to talk about the immature company effect in a moment but what i first want to do is i want to take this earnings multiple here and i want to slash that in half okay i want to see what these numbers would look like if we were only able to get a 33 times multiple in 2025 so here we go 33 times multiple which is not par with today i forgot to take that out that is not par with today with a 33 times multiple in 2025 tesla would actually be selling for about eleven hundred dollars which is funny because that's what it sold for in december of 2021 but we can't think about hindsight we have to think forward the the point is if you're buying shares at 690 today oops a little above that if you're buying shares at 690 today then uh then whatever shares you're buying in the 690 dollar region you could potentially expect a rate of return on those shares of 12.3 over the next four years that's pretty dang good even with these low estimates you'd probably be exceeding wall street uh and quite frankly uh the s p 500 or the indices of course in the short term you might underperform but that's what happens when you don't diversify towards the indices shorter terms you'll underperform so what is an immature company well an immature company is a company that it has so much excess demand so think about it like tesla right let's say that this is a representation of all of the pre-orders for teslas and tesla is only able to provide deliveries up to this maybe third of the box over here because remember people might be tempted to buy other evs right now because they can't get their hands on a tesla even though they'd otherwise be a tesla buyer well right here this represents uh untapped uh sort of production growth right production growth and the only way to actually tap it is by growing production more the issue is you can only ramp at a certain level so even though next year we might be you know able to ramp this by 50 we might still only be here and the cool thing about that is with an immature company if we say oh but wait we're in a recession we're actually going to stop demand at this vertical line here and this demand is going to get destroyed this could represent let's say 30 of demand over here that gets destroyed tesla can actually still be growing and ramping at a rate of 50 to 60 percent growth even without that 30 because of the nature of it being an immature company anyway if you found this information helpful please consider subscrib
Comments 0