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마이클 버리가 JD.com을 두 분기 연속 추가 매수해 13F에 보유 확대가 나타남. JD는 2023년 2월 이후 55% 하락, 52주 저점 근처에서 거래. 워런 버핏식 체크리스트(ROC 평균 4.4%로 미달, 매출·EPS·FCF 성장, 주주 희석, 순현금 $23.6B, FCF수익률 약 25%)로 분석해 저평가 주장. DCF 공정가 약 $81, GuruFocus 가치 $61, 종합 공정가 약 $64로 제시하며 현재가 대비 약 2.5배 상승 여지를 강조. 자산은 JD이며 대상 목록에 없어 이번 채점 대상 자산은 없음.
다듬은 글
Michael bur just made big news he's investing heavily in Chinese Tech jd.com and Alibaba are his two biggest Holdings showing up in his latest 13f but this isn't the first time bur's bought JD in fact he's added to it for the second time in back-to-back quarters right now jd.com stocktaker JD is down 55% since February of 2023 the stock trades at $24.39 very close to its 52e lows is J JD a deep value play that's a smart buy right now or will the stock continue to go down in 2024 JD has trailed the market with the S&P 500 up 23% in the last year alone compared to e-commerce peers JD is the worst performer us-listed Amazon has done the best in the last year up 73% this is followed by Chinese e-commerce upstart pin Doo Duo which is up 41% but other Chinese tech companies like e-commerce giant Alibaba and search engine Buu are both down 27% JD's easily the worst performer does that mean it can rise the highest in a potential turnaround we will answer this big question with a deep dive analysis of JD stock reviewing important Financial metrics favored by Warren Buffett and comparing the Stock's performance against competitors plus I'll share a special bonus that could be the deciding factor when adding JD to your portfolio at the end of the video we will run the numbers through three different valuation models to figure out JD's fair value price in today's market I will also give you my rating and what I've been doing with JD in the portfolio so is JD a great chance to make money let's find out together before our analysis I want to welcome you to Global value and share a friendly disclaimer please remember that this is not Financial or investment advice and that you should do your own due diligence use common sense and make the right decisions for you now let's get right into it at the time of the video JD is down 15.5% since its IPO nearly a decade ago it trades just $3 above its 52e low which has been cut in half from its 52- we high this comes as the company has steadily declined since February of 2021 when it reached its all-time highs since then it's down more than 75% still jd.com is a large cap company they have a $37 billion market cap and with a huge amount of cash on their balance sheet that we'll look at later they have only a$ 22.5 billion Enterprise Value right now the company trades at just 11 1/2 times earnings and they have a 2.6% dividend yield Now Chinese Tech has been controversial in recent years but what does JD actually do jd.com is a leading Chinese e-commerce platform with 2022 gross merchandise volume similar to pindu Duo but still lower than Alibaba it offers a wide selection of authentic products with speedy and reliable delivery the company has built its own fulfillment Network infrastructure and last mile delivery Network staffed by its own employees this supports both its online direct sales its Online Marketplace and Omni Channel businesses now with that understanding let's dive deep into the numbers that Warren Buffett cares about this step-by-step checklist style approach reverse Engineers how Warren Buffett would look at a company's numbers it gives you one of the best shots of finding undervalued highquality stocks that can beat the market and make you a lot of money in the process now getting started with metric number one we want their average Returns on Capital to be above 14% return on Capital helps us figure out how much money the company uses for everything invested into it based on the way this is determined it's going to look a little off for JD given its high reinvestment rate still the trend here that's important is that JD has grown their Returns on Capital in The Last 5 Years when it's averaged out however JD only earns 4.4% returns in a given year over this time meaning it's an x on Metric number one but with a high growth company like this it's this positive trend line that we like to see next The Narrative is that Chinese growth has stalled with pindu Duo really eating their competitors's lunch in the e-commerce Market but what do the numbers truly say for JD in metric number two we want growth in their sales earnings and free cash flows in this time JD has more than doubled their sales from 2018 until now their earnings were negative in 2018 and they're positive today in their last 12 months these came in at $3.3 billion most importantly the company's free cash flows have grown they're positive in all five of these years and they're up more than 10 times from where they were at in 2018 while that may be an anomaly for the business the company's cash from operations has more than doubled in this time as well this growth is great to see especially in their cash flows we'll touch on that later but for now it's a check on Metric number two in our third metric we want to look at JD from the view of an IND individual shareholder this is why we're looking for earnings per share growth we just learned that JD has grown their earnings yet at the same time the company has issued new shares deluding existing shareholders by about 9% much of this comes from share-based compensation which JD uses as a way to incentivize employees JD is not alone as a big tech company issuing shares but it can possibly hurt with their share price crashing in recent years as they're giving away more of their business still their earnings growth far out tases this meaning their earnings per share are up and it's another check on Metric number three as always we should not look at any metric in isolation and we should only make conclusions at the end of the video in our fourth metric we want to see something similar but even more important this is why we want free cash flow per share growth free cash flows are really the lifeblood of any business JD's value is ultimately based on these cash flows just like many other companies this is why it's great to see that their cash flows are growing in in this time they brought in $34 in 2022 and $313 in their last 12 months that's very strong growth even outpacing their earnings it's yet another check on Metric number four it's great to see their cash flows have been even more stable than their earnings now before we look at the company's debt and get into our valuations why don't we check in on our bonus right now JD pays a 2.63% dividend yield but is it safe and can this grow as one of just a handful of big tech companies to pay a dividend is this sustainable into the future that's what we want to figure out in our bonus as we want their dividends to be covered by their free cash flows JD first paid out a special dividend in 2021 they followed this up with regular cash dividends starting in 2022 that they've continued in their last 12 months as well so far in all of these years they've been able to cover their dividend pretty comfortably they issued this special dividend after seeing that 2020 was a year out of the ordinary with lockdowns the company's cash flow surged management likely saw this as a pull forward in demand that wasn't likely to be kept up they were proved right in 2021 but then the companies still perform strongly in their last couple of years either way JD comfortably supports their regular dividend payments which again give them a pretty high yield for a Chinese tech company it's what we want to see and it's another check on our bonus now what does JD's balance sheet look like in recessions it's businesses with too much debt that can have the biggest loss and even go bankrupt you don't want to invest into broke companies thankfully that's not the case for JD in metric number five we want their net debt to be above the sum of their free cash flows JD's net debt subtracts their cash from all of the company's debts with this JD has a huge cash pile left over in each of the last few years they've had more than $20 billion in Cold Hard Cash today they sit on a cash cushion of $23.6 billion and for shareholders they brought in $22.5 billion in free cash flow in The Last 5 Years alone that is phenomenal as JD generates a ton of cash and has this big cash cushion to protect themselves on their balance sheet it's a massive check on Metric number five now how much is JD possibly worth jumping into our valuation models and our final metric we'll be reviewing three unique models to get to our fair value price if you're enjoying the content so far please smash the like button and subscribe to the channel to ensure you're notified when we release similar videos in the future in our big metric we want JD's average free cash flow yield to be above 5% we figure this out with an average of JD's free cash flows divided by their Enterprise Value which is what we get when we add their market cap and in this case their cash cushion together this helps us look at JD more like it's a private business and they bring in an average of $4.5 billion of free cash flow when we divide it by their Enterprise Value we get a huge 20% average free cash flow yield blowing that Benchmark out of the water today JD brought in $5.6 billion of free cash flow in their last 12 months this means we get nearly a 25% current free cash flow yield also massive compared to our risk premium these both are way above what we're looking for based on this model JD could be massively undervalued and it's a huge check on Metric number six but don't run out and go bu the business we want to see what our other two models have to to say before we put them together and draw conclusions at the end of the video our second model uses a DCF valuation to figure out what JD's future free cash flows may be worth we'll take an average of their free cash flows then use historical assumptions to grow these into the future keep in mind JD's high growth means that they have low business predictability and it's up to you to do your own homework here if we grow an average of their free cash flows by 19% in e to the next 10 years and then in the following decade if we assume that this growth rate is cut in half and they grow at 9.5% annually then we'll add in their tangible Book value to give an estimate of their net worth if we want a market beating 15% rate of return which is what Warren Buffett looks for from his Investments a fair value based on this DCF is around $81 per share that could give JD a very significant margin of safety still it's helpful to keep some key points in mind that's why we want to look at the company's history compared to where they've traded at the past JD is at some of their lowest value valuations in their history they're at only 10% of their median EV to sales ratio they also trade close to their low of price to owner earnings and crudely they're trading almost at their lowest PE we see this in their valuation chart where JD looks potentially attractive based on a number of these standard valuations we'll use their GF value as our final valuation which today comes in around $61 per share Guru Focus assigns JD a significantly undervalued rating if you're interested in learning more about these valuations check out the free resource on our patreon Linked In the description below now we've looked at most of the numbers Warren Buffett cares about but it's the qualities of a business that are even more important to him especially investing into foreign companies like JD let's learn about their business qualities before we combine these with their valuation models to figure out a fair value price and rating for JD let's start with a long thesis first number one jd.com Nationwide distribution Network and fulfillment capacity will be extremely difficult for competitors to replicate number two as its first party business gain scale cost Advantage will lead to lower sourcing costs and higher margins number three JD is now the largest supermarket in China highfrequency fmcg categories have attracted new customers from less developed areas and can drive purchases of other categories but we need to look at the negatives as well let's check out a short thesis number one the new everyday low price strategy reorganization and restructuring of the first party business in 2022 will lead to weak growth in the medium term number two fulfillment infrastructure could be costly to operate especially as the company penetrates lower tier cities with lower disposable incomes and population densities number three increasing e-commerce competition such as that from short video platforms might weigh on jd.com growth and profitability now let's put everything together for JD in our fundamental stock analysis of jd.com we learn the business goes 5 for six on the select six analysis they've been growing a lot with their financials trending in the right direction this comes as they have a huge cash position on their balance sheet and it looks like they're trading at a potentially very attractive free cash flow yield while not at the return profile we're looking for from more established mature companies it's okay given where JD is at in their business life cycle plus the company has started to return Capital to shareholders via a dividend when we put this together with one of their leading positions in Chinese e-commerce today a fair value price for JD is around $64 per share that's up 2 and a half times from their current stock price it's well above the $40 Street Target price fair value is a range but it might be the value michaelb saw in the business that's why he's added to it and it's why JD is one of Michael bur's favorite companies today JD looks undervalued this is a stock will track in the portfolio to follow along subscribe to the patreon found in the description below and watch this next video to see another potentially undervalued company
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