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마이클 베리의 2023년 3분기 13F 기준 포트폴리오를 분석. 보유 종목은 넥스타미디어, 스텔란티스, 스타벌크캐리어스, 부킹홀딩스 등 해운·미디어·중국 이커머스 중심이며 BABA·JD 등 중국 기술주는 부진. 2023년 9월 이후 포트폴리오 약 99.6% 상승, S&P500 15.3% 상승 대비 시장과 비슷한 수준. 베리는 SOXL 등 반도체 ETF와 부킹홀딩스에 풋옵션(숏) 보유. 저평가 기업에 대한 가치투자 철학을 강조. 영상은 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
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right now these are the stocks Michael bur owns in his portfolio as of his last 13f filing for the third quarter in 2023 since then these stocks are up 99.57% Dr Michael bur is an American investor and hedge fund manager he famously bet against the real estate market in 2008 which is documented in the movie The Big Short based on the best-selling book by Michael Lewis we can find out bur's latest trades based on his 13f filings bur runs ion Asset Management where he manages A4 billion dollar of assets his latest 13f filing included $100 million of these as his us listed assets these also include two put options on the iShare semiconductor ETF and booking Holdings that we'll cover in more depth later on so why does he own these stocks does Michael bur's investing style really work and what can we learn from his portfolio in this video we'll answer these questions by a deep dive in analysis into Michael bur's stock portfolio reviewing the stocks that are in the portfolio and comparing Michael bur's performance against the market by the end of the video we'll run the numbers to see how each of these stocks have performed how much bur has received in dividends and how Diversified his portfolio really is I'll also share with you the lessons we can take from Michael bur and apply to our own portfolios before our analysis I want to welcome you to Global value and share a friendly disclaimer please remember that this is not Financial or investment advice and that you should do your own due diligence and make decisions based on your own circumstances now let's get right into it starting with the put options the reported value in this form 13f is different from the actual value of these unexercised long put options that's reflected on Michael bur's books these put options are Michael bur's way of having short positions against the market we saw similar activity in 2023 where he had shorts against the S&P 500 and the QQQ ETFs bur's biggest short today is against the ey share semiconductor ETF this is the first time he's opened up a short position against this what hasn't been new for bur is a put option when booking Holdings he's had a series of different options with the company in three quarters in the last 2 years alone while they may not be exercised the underlying value of these put options are 47 million and $7.7 million respectively they make up huge positions in the portfolio but this value isn't based on the cash he outlaid initially based on his latest 13f from stocks he's held since September 30th 2023 Michael bur is up 99.57% at the same time the S&P 500 is up 15.28% so bur's like the market in his portfolio he's had some hits and misses over this time that will take a deeper look at while it's a shorttime horizon tracking these by month bur didn't do too hot from September into October he did much better from October through the end of 2023 so far to start 2024 his stock portfolio is down seeing how bur stocks have contributed to his performance the big winner is stellantis this is a sizable position up nearly 28% in the last handful of months he's also had winners from Hudson Pacific Properties and nextar media a position in Booking Holdings also did well for bur among his losers the biggest is Chinese e Commerce giant Alibaba joining Alibaba is fellow Chinese e-commerce company JD and the real real outside of those three losers the rest of these stocks have done pretty well based on this filing information bur's biggest position is nextstar Media with an $8.8 million position nextar Media Group operates in television broadcasting they're the largest TV owner operator in the United States nextar is a company bur's had a history with he's previously bought and sold out of this at at the end of 2022 he added to this position twice at the end of 2023 possibly around the same levels it's trading at today nextar media is a $6 billion market cap company that trades in between its 52e high and low it's also owned by a handful of other super investors when the company's compared to other media it's looking pretty decent they trade for around 14 times earnings with a 3% dividend yield and 19% Returns on Equity a DCF for next star gives them a fair value of $185 while analysts are targeting a stock price of around $23 stellantis is bur's second largest stock with an $8.5 million position in the business like nexstar bur has history here with stantis 2 it almost matches the exact same history where he added to the business then quickly sold out in 2022 as things went sideways more recently he added in the middle quarters of 2023 and the stock has gone up since then stellantis is the result of Fiat Chrysler and PSA group in 2021 I've covered the company previously on the channel today they trade at a $33 billion market cap they're pretty close to their 52e high at $21 per share and they're owned by this handful of super investors stellantis trades potentially extremely cheaply with just a third price to sales ratio and under a 2p plus they have a 6% dividend yield analyst gives stantis a price target of 215 per share which is right about their current stock price remember stantis is up for bur since he first bought in starb carriers is the third largest position with $5.4 million invested into it this is another company bur's added to quarter over quarter so we're beginning to see a theme Here starbo carriers is a deepsea freight Transportation Company I've also covered this company previously there are just three other super investors who have small positions in this $2.2 billion company that trades close to its 52e highs a DCF model puts a fair value for Star bulk at around $27 per share that's a pretty decent upside analysts are targeting a price of $26 also with a decent upside from today's prices as their stock price is pretty close to when he first bought in maybe bur sees the same booking Holdings which owns booking.com is the fourth largest position at 5.3 million stock Circle has their industry wrong here but it's another company that bur's had history with with it looks like bur saw value in a number of these companies at the end of 2022 then he quickly changed course as their stock prices started to fall but he saw value in these companies again toward the end of 2023 this $122 billion company is very close to its 52e high it's also owned by a prodigious list of super investors with a lot of them having relatively smaller positions in the business but still are invested a DCF model gives them a 6.6% fair value value upside however analysts are targeting a lower price than today this would be a downside of nearly 30% coming in at a price target of around $2,600 this is the first company we've seen in bur's portfolio that's more split here definitely a lesser known business euronav is the fifth largest position with $4.4 million invested euronav also is a marine shipping company that bur's added to in backtack quarters even though they're lesser known this is a 3.9 billion dollar company that's trading in between its 52e high and lows closer to the high a handful of super investors own this one as well a DCF analysis gives their fair value of 4.3% upside while analyst price Target gives them an upside of 18.8% one of the most contentious stocks in the market Alibaba is the next position at $3.7 million this was initially a bigger buy from bur than what it is today as it stock is one of the few that's gone down in his portfolio bures had a more of a trading relationship with Alibaba as he bought at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 then sold entirely and then bought again that hasn't been the most prudent decision so far as the company stock price is down since then but time will tell Alibaba is a mega cap Chinese stock trading close to its 52e lose there are some decent Siz positions in the business by other super investors a few other value investors not listed here have sizable bets as well alibaba's training pretty low compared to the market in the tech sector overall but this company has its own key risks a DCF puts their fair value at $191 with a potential 159 1.5% upside analysts for the most part are also very bullish on the company with a 133.5 per upside next bur invested into Hudson Pacific Properties with a value of $3.6 million this is another company we've seen bur add to in back-to-back quarters and their stock prices High higher Hudson Pacific Properties is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates Office Buildings and media and entertainment properties on the west coast this $1.2 billion company has had a very rough time in the last several years today they trade in between their 52- we high and low closer to that high end but they bottomed out at less than half of their current share price around 10 different super investors have positions in the company a DCF analysis gives their fair value of 4.9% upside analysts are much more bullish on the company with a 101% upside and an $18 price Target another Chinese e-commerce company JD is a $2.9 million position for bur bur seemingly treated JD and Alibaba the same he added to these companies and sold out of them entirely in both of the same quarters and now he's back in for a lower price even with that the price of this $38 billion e-commerce retailer has gone even lower JD trades just $2 above their 52e low like Alibaba it's another contentious Chinese Tech stock that has a decent number of Super investors invested in albeit in small amounts JD seems to also trade very cheap compared to peers and the market overall a DCF analysis is extremely bullish on JD more than doubling its current fair value from today analysts seemingly wanted to top that with over 300% upside this quadruples the company stock price a lesser known company Crescent energy is bur's next holding with a $2.2 million position this is a company he first bought in the second quarter of 2023 then in the third quarter he sold out of some but not all of the position this $1 billion company trades smack dab in the middle of its 52- we range and it's owned by three other super investors analysts are targeting a price of $17 giving it a 59% upside the second smallest position is the real real coming in at $1.6 million the real reel is an e-commerce company that bur added to in backto back quarters in 2023 to start the year he sold 50% of this position in the third quarter of 2023 its stock price really hasn't changed that much since he either bought in or sold out of it it's by far the smallest company bur has in his portfolio with a $22 million market cap it also trades in the middle of its 52e high and low there are just sever veral super investors with very small positions in the company a DCF fair value gives a 216% upside from today analysts are way more bullish on the stock with a 600% upside this potential asymmetry may be why bur has a small amount in his portfolio the last company in michaelb stock portfolio is safe bulkers at a $1.2 million position safe bulkers is another deepsea Freight transportation that buries added to in back-to-back quarters it stack prices up since he first started buying into the company this half a billion dollar company is owned by just one other super investor Jim Simons it trades just under its 52e high a DCF value of safe bokkers gives it a 23% upside similar to the other Shipping Company bur has starball carriers jumping into bur's dividend income we'll be reviewing that and his total returns to shareholders if you're enjoying the content so far please smash the like button and subscribe to the channel to ensure you're notified when we releasee similar videos in the future since September 2023 Michael bre has unrealized capital gains of $3.9 million this comes along with dividend payments of $352,000 since then as well this includes the first dividend payment from Alibaba and big dividends from euronav and starbo carriers across Industries bur's pretty well Diversified although it is notable as of the time of this filing in video he doesn't own any industrial stocks the finance stock listed here Hudson Pacific Properties is a Reit not a diversified financial company so there are sectors in the American economy bur seems to be steering clear of plus the tech companies he owns are chinese-based so what can we learn from Michael bur stock portfolio first of all he likes to take industry group-based bets we saw this with investments in Marine shipping in a few companies plus he owns a couple of Chinese Tech retail Giants while those tech companies haven't worked out for him with his trading strategy these other Industries have done pretty good even if he's underperforming the market he still made money overall another lesson comes from his investment philosophy of buying very cheap companies he's buying what almost would be considered Rogue kill companies by the stock market given their valuations then when things have low optimism and they turn out to be not as bad as anticipated their stock prices often Roar upwards that's been bur's investing Phil Philosophy for most of his career even though he has the fame for shorting the real estate market he's much more so focused on taking a global almost macro based approach then constructing his portfolio bottom up from what he believes is likely to happen some of the best protection he can get is when he invests in these companies for very cheap so what do you think of Michael bur's portfolio is it something other investors can model do you think Michael bur outperforms longterm what do you think of the stocks he owns and what other lessons can we draw from his portfolio share those and any other thoughts in the comments below if you would like to learn more about other super investors and attractive opportunities in the current market make sure to watch the next video thanks for watching and I'll see you in the next one
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