저자: PaulGabriel · 외국인
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Everything Money 자체 '8 pillars' 재무 필터로 엔비디아를 분석. 5년 PE 196, 연간 PE 110 등 밸류에이션 부담을 지적하고, 자체 주식분석 도구로 주가 적정치를 약 30~60달러 수준으로 제시하며 현재가 311달러 대비 크게 고평가라고 주장. 차트 분석가 Moe는 플래그폴 패턴 기준 230~260달러 조정 가능성을 언급하며 스윙 트레이딩 관점에서 단기 매도 가능성을 시사. 말미에 유료 구독(월 90센트급) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Everything Money. In this video you will learn about Nvidia's financial performance. We will translate this financial data from our Everything Money software. You will see them. We'll show you how much you should pay for these stocks using our analysis tool. It's a little confusing. So stay with us.
If you are interested in trading this company, which has recently taken off, you can do so with Mo. It will show you graphs. It will show trends if you want to trade faster. We will do all this in the near future. Why should you watch this video and listen to us? Well, I'm bringing your usual Nvidia questions to a couple of rich guys who manage over $100 million in offshore boat racing.
Er, auditions at Benihana. No, I'm kidding. In real estate, stocks and bonds. And we'll talk about this chip manufacturer right now. Um, I present to you Paul Gabriel in all his glory. Keep it up Paul. Hello, guys. So, first, follow us on Instagram, the new Everything Money account, and then follow us personally so we don't feel ignored.
So guys, this is our Everything Money software. We will move on to the "eight pillars" tool. We will introduce Nvidia. Nvidia. And here is the data. Oh, look at this graph. Look at this 10-year chart. Oh my God. These shares were selling for $4 in 2011. They are now $311 each. Yes, I love people. If you're at home, look at how this normal, nice little graph was just steadily going up, and then bam, Covid comes along and we just go 100 times higher than the roof.
That's it, Paul. So before anyone thinks these stocks can't be any lower in 20 years, let me remind everyone about Intel and Cisco. So, Intel was a stock in 2000. It was the most amazing thing in the world. And look, we have n't even reached the 2000 figure yet. What is Intel's market capitalization, by the way ?
27 billion. Nvidia—780 billion. You read an article, Paul, in the early 2000s about what would be the stock of a trillion-dollar company 20 years ago. They did n't even come close to that. Not even close. So guys, Nvidia, a $776 billion company, our very first pillar. We want the five-year PE ratio to be below 22.5.
Remember, not a one-year-old, but a five-year-old. Well done. It's 196. Nobody has time for that . This is "x". The annual P/E ratio is 110. Hooray. Exactly. Second column: we want the return on invested capital over the last 5 years to be higher than 9%. Check mark. This is 14.8%. So, this company is doing a great job of investing capital in the business, making money on the money invested in the business.
Now let's look at their, um, dividend income . Seth, what would you call this dividend income? Well, as Uncle Paul would say, it's just magical. Magical. Dividend yield 0.1%, $400 million. But remember guys, dividends are not always safe in our software here. We make it easy for you . We place free cash flow above to see if dividends are truly safe.
They pay $400 million in dividends, and their 5- year average free cash flow is $4 billion. They pay out 10% of their free cash flow in dividends. Everything is great with them. Third column, guys, we want to look at the income statement . We will look at revenue growth over the last five years. All we want to see is growth.
I don't care how big the growth is. I want to see at least some growth. From 8.34 to 22. That's something. Now I'll say this: 8.34, 11.9, 10, 13, 21.9. Why? What does this show first? This makes me think, remember guys, I don't research in advance. For all those who claim that it is important to research the company first— they are wrong.
These numbers will tell me the story I will go and study. This is a big leap. Of course, chip prices have increased a lot over the past year, but I think there have been some takeovers. So in the cash flow statement, we can look at acquisitions and disposals to see if growth was n't just due to acquisitions, but we still tick the box.
Fourth column, profit growth over the last 5 years. We're just scrolling down a little bit on our income statement . We have a profit. Net profit from 2.3 to 7 billion. Here we put a check mark. Look at this earlier , Paul. Two, four, three, three. Yes. And then seven. Oh my God, guys. The fifth column is the "silent killer" and one of the most important.
These are our outstanding shares. We want to see the number of shares outstanding decrease. Now let me say this: with the stock so expensive, I don't blame them if they issue more shares, because they are acting like that drug dealer on the corner who sees that everyone loves drugs and doesn't realize how much it is hurting them.
They don't understand that Nvidia is sitting there thinking, " Wait, all these people want our stock, even though it's crazy expensive." "Let's just give them what they want." So, let's look at the end of the income statement. 2.39 billion , 2.49. 49. This is x. But this is exactly what I expected, guys.
I'm even surprised that there aren't more, because why? If this company wants to raise capital, they shouldn't take on debt. They should be giving the drug to people addicted to it on the streets. That's exactly what they're doing here. So, either in their estates. Or in your estate. You are right. Well, cocaine is more of a drug for estate dwellers.
By the way, you have some snow on...on I thought I had something on my nose. The sixth pillar, Paul, concerns their debt, baby. So guys, debt is important for any company. We want to look at the debt and ask: Can this company hold up if a recession hits? Just like you personally: the more debt you have, the less secure your financial future will be.
The same with the company. So what do I do? We have a home page here. I'm moving on to the 5-year average free cash flow figure . I multiply 4 billion by five, getting a total of 20 billion dollars. I want this company's total long-term liabilities to be less than $20 billion. So how do I find it? I'm going to go to the balance sheet in our program right here.
I scroll to the very, very bottom. Long-term liabilities—13 billion, we check the box. Perfectly. Good. The seventh pillar is free cash flow growth. We want their free cash flow to grow. Free cash flow is growing. I'm sure it is, Paul . Don't you think the same? I think so too. Free cash flow is cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures.
You can use free cash flow for one of five things. Buybacks, pay dividends, repay debts, make acquisitions, and reinvest in your company. Okay , this is the real lifeboat of the company. So in the cash flow statement, I make things simple for everyone. I added this line right here because operating income minus capital expenditures 5 years ago—1.94, last year—6.67, we put a check mark.
Our last, eighth pillar—we take the average of free cash flow over the last 5 years. We multiply it by a factor of 20 as a starting point to get the market capitalization if we want to buy a company. It will be ugly now. Very ugly. 4 billion multiplied by 20 is 80 billion dollars. The company is worth 776 billion.
Does this mean you shouldn't buy it? No. Yes. Oh. Well . 10 times more. Agree. But remember, guys, for other companies—a faster growing company should have a higher ratio. We put 20 because we need to write something into our software. And you know what, guys, you know what? Very quickly, remember I talked about acquisitions in the cash flow statement?
They made a $7 billion acquisition, uh , two years ago, and a $ 1.3 billion acquisition. That's why their income jumped. But let's get back to the topic. Let's move on to the eight pillars tab. You thought it was a lot of work before. We do the eight pillars for you right here on the eight pillars tab.
P/E ratio. And it doesn't bother me that much, because they're just selling " drugs" to people who like them. Huge overpayment, guys. Huge overpayment. The one thing I like, Seth, is their free cash flow numbers, ratios, and earnings are very similar. Mm. OK. So, it's just an expensive promotion. Next, we'll use our stock analysis tool to show you how much to pay for this stock.
It will be bad. Guys, if you're at a party and someone mentions this chip company, you can open your phone, the Everything Money app, and Paul will show you what you get by joining our software. So guys, this software was built because our users said, "Hey, how can I do my own analysis without waiting for you to release a video?" So we created this software.
The first thing you get is everything you've seen here, plus our stock analysis tool, plus everything coming soon. And your price doesn't increase when these updates come out. It remains unchanged. Whatever price you set, it remains relevant. Available on your mobile phone. All this on your mobile phone.
You get access to Seth, Moe, and me, plus two to three videos a day with exclusive content just for you. And best of all, you get access to a chat with over 6,000 people who are already using the software. You can discuss your investment ideas with them. So, if you are stranded on a deserted island and don't know who to discuss your investment ideas with, like we were.
Our community makes you feel like you can have these conversations. And all this costs just 90 cents a day, including the stock analysis tool. 90 cents a day. You get access forever. This is an obvious decision, guys. If you are serious about your financial future and want to earn 1-2% more or save 1-2% on losses, it will pay off many times over.
You can earn hundreds of thousands, if not millions. There are two ways to subscribe. Everythingmoney.com or Patreon. The advantage of our site is that you won't be charged double the first month and won't be charged sales tax because we're not that big yet. So register now. Let's move on to the stock analyzer.
We'll show you how to respond to a bunch of comments about Nvidia where people say, "anything under 350—I'll buy it" or "anything under 320." This looks arbitrary. We want to show that a stock analysis tool helps determine assumptions about the future and understand what price is worth paying to make a profit.
Paul, show them how it works right now. So guys, the first thing I did was choose the number of years to analyze, seven. Then I can choose the number of guess options. This is such a big company that I will only do two. And now for the point, guys. We show all the important numbers here. Revenue growth, profit margin, free cash flow margin, P/E ratio, and desired return .
I will look at a 10- year period, but remember that I am not taking into account absorption in this analysis. Much of this growth was achieved through acquisitions. Therefore, I will set fairly low revenue growth rates. I'll take 4% and 8%. Much lower than in the last 10 years. Yes, what do you think?
You will be blown away. Well, not necessarily. No, in the comments. Oh, well, I'll be blown away in the comments. No, but I agree with you . I just looked at their recent acquisitions . They buy a lot of companies. Yes. And you can't include this as part of organic growth. You are the growth we see—a big part of it.
Yes. I look at it this way: if this company stopped acquiring , how would it grow, because I'm buying this business, right? Next is the profit margin. Right now, profit margins are likely to remain fairly stable. I would . Um, I'll still leave 24-28%. Free cash flow margin. I like to stay level. If I can maintain the same free cash flow and profit margin, I will do it.
So, I'll do it here. PE (price/ earnings ratio). This is where everyone will start to hate me. Guys, PE and free cash flow figures are so different now that you're like, "Paul, you're just...". Guys, it's like saying, " Hey, do you want to buy my house? It's worth $100 million." Oh, no. Okay, I'll sell it to you for 10 million.
This is a 90% discount. So, it's a good deal. Well, the house only costs a million. 10 million is still too much. Even with a 90 percent discount on the price. Same here. This is simply an extremely high price for a long time. This will not be a company with a PE ratio of 100. The larger the company and the slower the growth , the lower the PE should be .
Of course? Do you agree with me? I don't know. Probably not. In the comments under the video you will write: "This guy has no idea what he is talking about." Just turn off the video. I don't want to hear your comments. I don't want to hear your comments." I think that's reasonable. I'm too busy flirting with your mom on Snapchat while she's DMing me and sending me her pictures.
Just go away. I don't want to hear you. I'm hitting the analyze button. Current stock price— 311. Any guesses , guys? DMing you. Um, about 100 bucks a share. Oh, I think less than that . Oh, no. Where did we stop? Um, 80. I'll say 40, 40-50. $40 to $60 a share. Okay, do that. Let's see. Oh, what does it say?
30-50. Okay. Good. And by the way, based on that PE, that makes sense, because the PE should fall 85%. Yeah. The stock should fall 85%. 15% of 311 is about 47 Let me translate some of this nonsense. If you buy 300 shares and they keep doing what they're doing under these conditions, you're not going to make much money because you have to buy 50 shares to make that kind of profit.
So you don't have to buy it, Paul, but show them how much it's worth? What can you expect if you pay that much? If we assume a 0% return, which is to say we don't want to make any money. The stock is still only worth $60 to $100. That means in 10 years, the experts say the stock should be worth a maximum of $100, a minimum of $60.
What if you want to lose 5% of your money? That's not bad. It's just math. Okay. 80 to So, guys, based on these numbers right now and my assumptions, I'm going to go with a 15 % loss. Still not the same result. So, guys, if you buy this company, you might be sitting there and saying, "Well, Paul, your assumptions are wrong." Okay, let's go back to 12.5%.
Put the revenue at some level. Let's take 15-20% revenue growth. Great. 15-20% revenue growth. This is still an incredibly overvalued company . And you're going to argue with me about this PE. Like that idiot in California who ran for governor and said that Tesla, the largest company in the world with a trillion dollars in revenue, should have a PE of 70.
You're just going to lose a lot of money. Put the PE at 30-40. See what happens, because I want to raise your rates. I'm going to go 40 and 60. Yeah, 60 PE. These are new, these are new times, Paul. It's still too expensive . Oh my God. Nobody has time for this . If you understand that, you guys should join our community.
If you don't understand that, you better take your money, put it in a tin can, and burn it, because you don't understand numbers at all. It's just math, guys. Every investment is the present value of future cash flows. But the good news is that Moe analyzes the charts. It doesn't matter what the fundamentals are .
All you're looking at is the charts and the stock movement. Moe, show everyone if this is going to work. Go ahead. So right now, this company has shown incredible growth over the last few weeks, the last month, because of everything that's going on with themselves and their integration with Meta. So, to me, this is a flagpole, and I'm going to, I'm going to really zoom in here and show you even more than just a flagpole.
If you look at this flagpole pattern, you'll see these wicks that keep coming up. Even today, it just tells me, it tells me that this thing is going to go back to where it came from. And I think that level is about 260, 2...what is that? Oh, 230, 230. Instead of looking at it from a long-term perspective, I would suggest you look at it from a swing trading perspective.
So this is a daily chart where you can make money and catch different trends. You could catch all this growth and know that you're getting close to a point where volume is decreasing. You're about to turn around, and that's probably where you should start taking profits. And if you want to learn how to short, short all the way to 220-230.
So that's what you need to do in a company like that to make money. You can make money playing up and down in a company like Nvidia. You don't need to sit in it for years and just hope to God that it goes up, because it probably won't, based on its fundamentals. So the charts are what what it takes if you're trading this crazy company.
If you're attracted to it and it resonates, but you want to be a value investor , stay away from Nvidia for now. The chart is clear. If you want to trade it, you can take it up with Mo Bondo. Thumbs up. Thanks for joining us. See you in the next video. Heat. Heat. N.
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