저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 기술·통화·희소자산 혁명에 힘입어 2030년 150만 달러까지 갈 수 있다는 장기 강세론을 펼쳤다. 온체인 전문가 지표가 여전히 강세장을 가리키고 주요 기술적 저항을 돌파했다며 향후 1년간 강세장이 유지될 것으로 봤다. 거시적으로는 트럼프 행정부의 정책이 연말 증시 상승으로 이어지고 AI 생산성 향상으로 고성장·저인플레가 올 것이라 전망했다. AI의 실물 적용처로 자율주행(테슬라 유력)과 헬스케어(암 진단, 신약개발, 유전자 치료)를 꼽았다.
다듬은 글
However, uh if if you look at our big ideas 2025, you'll see that our bull case for Bitcoin in 2030 is closer to 1.5 million. Uh still more than 10fold from where we are today. However, I will tell you we have an onchain analytics expert, David Puel, who has four main indicators right now uh that are still uh pointing to a bull market.
Uh and we've just had a major breakout. I think many of the technicals were beginning to look a little iffy or shaky and they have now been cleared. those hurdles have been cleared. So, uh we think that for the next year that this bull market will remain intact. Bitcoin isn't just making a comeback.
It's breaking through. After weeks of hesitation, it has cleared key technical barriers and the momentum now feels real. The market is shifting from uncertainty to conviction with institutional interest steadily building and onchain metrics turning bullish. Long-term holders are stacking, fear is cooling off, and the overall outlook is starting to look far more optimistic.
Kathy Wood of Arc Invest sees this as more than just a short-term bounce. While she typically avoids getting caught up in market noise, she recently highlighted that Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals have only strengthened. Her team's updated bullcase predicts a $ 1.5 million valuation by 2030, driven by rising institutional adoption, positive onchain trends, and growing demand for decentralized scarce asset.
Even the recent volatility has been absorbed with major resistance levels now flipped to support. This isn't just another price rally. It's a reset in market belief. As confidence returns and smart money flows back in, the next chapter in Bitcoin story could be one for the history book. Cyber criminals are getting smarter and everyday investors are the new target.
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And uh I think what's going on is the President Trump and his administration uh made the decision to get all of the tough work from their point of view or the bad news from the markets point of view out as soon as possible uh after they started the administration on January 20th. Uh and so there's been it's it's felt chaotic and and and on both sides on in the United States and elsewhere in the world.
Uh I think the objective was uh by this fall to have uh tariffs, the tax package uh and lots of deregulation in place so that uh the economy and the stock market would take off as we enter uh the campaign season for the midterm elections next year. Uh, President Trump does not want to be a lame duck and he uh he knows that uh he's going to be judged on two things.
He judges himself on two things, the economy and the stock market. And uh we believe the uh equity market's beginning to understand this uh and has been rising. We call it a wall of worry throughout all of the chaos. Uh we've seen markets around the world rising um with the expectation we think uh that the economy is going to move out of what has been a rolling recession here in the United States into a rolling recovery that will pick up momentum thanks to new technologies uh that are exploding today.
I mean the chat GBT moment uh launched it uh but will drive productivity. So very healthy real growth and low inflation. That's probably the biggest surprise. Uh many people associate real growth with inflation. History would suggest otherwise. The stronger the growth, the higher the productivity, the lower the inflation.
So we we think we're heading into really good times. What do you think are actually the biggest risks but also biggest opportunities for investors right now for the next 12 to 24 months? Yes. Uh well we know that AI is here and it is uh we do not believe it's hype. Uh we believe it's a profound technological revolution that's taking place.
And of course many people when uh they concluded many investors when they included uh or when they thought about AI uh their first response were was in the chip sector. though, Nvidia, TSM, and um and and we think they'll be fine stocks, but uh we think the bigger opportunities, meaning they h they're not as well understood, are in the embodied AI space.
And uh by that we mean um AI as it impacts the physical world. We think the biggest application of AI is in the autonomous mobility realm. Um uh many people know that uh as robo taxis. Uh and we think that is during the next 5 to 10 years that that will scale to an 8 to10 trillion opportunity globally for the entire ecosystem with the biggest beneficiaries.
the network providers accounting for half of that. So four to5 trillion dollars in revenue from essentially nothing now uh the biggest robo taxi network out there we believe will be Tesla. Now it is not yet. Whimo really has that uh has that um uh I I would say is has that mantle but we believe that Whimo's solution is too high cost and that it will give way to Tesla's lower cost solution over time.
uh we think that the autonomous opportunity will submit to natural geographic monopolies. We don't know who that will be in Europe uh or China. We know Pony AI and others are are going for it and nor do we know what it will be in in Japan. Uh we know that Tesla would like to enter those markets but uh in this world it's winner take most.
the company getting passengers from point A to point B the fastest, the safest, and the least expensively is probably going to win. Uh so lots of markets are up for grabs there. So that's the first embodied AI opportunity. Uh the second is in healthcare. We think that the most profound applications of AI uh during the next 5 to 10 years are going to be in healthcare.
Uh we see already that there are diagnostic tools, diagnostic tests that are able to identify and diagnose cancer in stage one. We're seeing this in one of our private companies renome uh able to use blood tests to diagnose colurectal cancer in stage one. Uh we have other uh other tests out the testing companies out there exact sciences uh gardened health uh also uh in the run for for that competition.
Um we see research and discovery being transformed by AI. Uh AI is going to shrink the time uh from conception to market uh to create a new drug. Uh from 13 years on average now to 8 years and ultimately five years we believe. Uh and what's been very gratifying here in the United States is the FDA, the top regulator is aiming to help with that process.
So it is uh it is uh blessing the use of AI in research and discovery. And we also think that the cost of discovering a new drug including all the failures will drop from 2.4 4 billion for one drug down to 600 million uh which is going to transform health care. And then the the third general category that we think is going to transform health care is curing disease.
So the convergence of various sequencing technologies with artificial intelligence and new technologies like crisper gene editing and other gene therapies uh is already starting to cure diseases. Cickle cell disease and betaththalmia. So, Crisper Therapeutics uh has launched those two products and they have already started generating revenues and curing people.
So, these are profound changes that we don't think investors have priced correctly into the market yet. The world may feel chaotic, but beneath the surface, a powerful shift is underway. Markets are shaking off recession fears as innovation surges forward. And at the heart of it is AI. From autonomous vehicles targeting trillion dollar industries to breakthroughs in cancer diagnostics and accelerated drug development, technology is transforming every sector.
Healthcare is on the verge of a revolution, and most investors haven't even noticed. This isn't just a recovery, it's a full-scale reinvention. Bitcoin is also entering a new era, and this time the fundamentals are doing the talking. With only 21 million coins ever to exist and demand surging following ETF approvals, Bitcoin scarcity is no longer theoretical.
Institutions are racing to secure their share, and the charts are pointing toward another breakout. The bull market is still alive and gaining steam. While some long-term forecasts put Bitcoin in the millions, even the next 12 months could deliver surprises. This isn't just a digital currency anymore, it's becoming a new standard for value.
Let's dive into more from the interview. What do you think right now about Bitcoin? Where are we standing actually? Yes, I think what is happening here? It started with the spot Bitcoin ETFs. We're very proud to have one of the largest here in the United States, ARKB. um that began the in institutionalization of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin market and other uh crypto markets, other digital assets.
And I think many people are now tuning into the arithmetic. I I actually posted on X math is math and math is math in and what that means is we're at right now roughly 21 million units or Bitcoin uh having been mined in in history and that number is only going up to 21 million. Uh it cannot go beyond that.
And so I think more people are doing the math and saying, "Oh my goodness, this is a new asset class. I as an institution don't have much exposure." Bitcoin has the most secure network and it's taking advantage of three powerful revolutions. It's a a technology revolution really the next generation of the internet.
uh putting the the native currencies into the internet. The developers did not do this in the late 80s early 90s when they were evolving the internet because they didn't know that finance and commerce would take place on the internet. So that's a revolution. Uh it's a global rules-based monetary system.
uh really the first one since uh the US closed the gold window in 1971. That's a very big idea and it is a new asset class and it's that last phenomenon or revolution that is beginning to take hold now uh because there's real scarcity value. 1 million more bitcoin uh will be mined and that's it. Uh so scarcity value is scarcity value and the most interesting thing about bitcoin is after the having uh last year which means the supply growth of bitcoin was cut in half uh uh to roughly 0.9% on average per year.
uh that dropped the supply growth of Bitcoin below the long time long-term supply growth of gold. Uh and a lot of people understand the scarcity value when it comes to gold. Bitcoin is going to become more scarce than gold because unlike gold, Bitcoin cannot respond to an increase in price and mine anymore uh than is mathematically metered now.
Gold however can respond to the increase in price that it has enjoyed and we are seeing new mines opening up the higher cost mines to try and get more supply out. And I think people are beginning to understand this distinction when it comes to scarcity value. Do you have a target or goal for Bitcoin for this year?
I mean, we've already seen a very strong year. I mean, we got the crypto week ahead which might do a little more, but um yeah, you got any specific target for 2025. So, what I'd like first to is to address the longer term target. So, the number you mention uh somewhere in the 2.4 4 to 2.9 million range would be if um if investors were to um uh were to use the optimal allocation towards Bitcoin based on its history.
And that of course is a big number. I think it's close to 20%. No one's going to do that. Um at least not now. Uh however uh if if you look at our big ideas 2025, you'll see that our bull pace for Bitcoin in 2030 is closer to 1.5 million. Uh still more than 10fold from where we are today. And our confidence has increased as the institutional interest has increased.
In terms of a one-year forecast, that's very difficult. uh we don't do those. However, I will tell you we have an onchain analytics expert, David Puel, who has four main indicators right now uh that are still uh pointing to a bull market. Uh and we've just had a major breakout. I think many of the technicals were beginning to look a little iffy or shaky and they have now been cleared.
Those hurdles have been cleared. So, uh we think that for the next year that this bull market will remain intact. Bitcoin could be on the brink of a historic revaluation. According to Plan B, creator of the widely followed stock toflow model, Bitcoin isn't just undervalued, it may be mispriced by a factor of 10.
Despite being twice as scarce as gold, its market cap remains a fraction of gold's around $2 trillion versus gold's 20 trillion. With a stock toflow ratio of 120 compared to gold 60, Bitcoin is mathematically the scarcer asset. Yet, Plan B's logarithmic analysis shows Bitcoin trading well below the line that links scarcity to valuation.
If priced according to that scarcity, its value could reach truly astronomical levels. Kathy Wood of Arc Invest shares this long-term bullish outlook. Her team projects Bitcoin could hit $1.5 million by 2030 under favorable conditions driven by accelerating institutional adoption and an increasingly robust onchain ecosystem would sees Bitcoin as a triple threat.
A monetary revolution, a digital asset class, and a foundational economic layer for the internet. Recent technical breakouts, strong whale accumulation, and glass node data showing consistent buying across both retail and institutional wallets all reinforce this bullish narrative. Indicators like SOPR and RSI suggest there's still plenty of upside before euphoria sets in.
The market appears to be waking up to Bitcoin's true scarcity. Unlike gold, Bitcoin can't increase supply in response to rising demand, and that fixed supply dynamic is becoming more relevant than ever. As demand builds and supply remains rigid, we may be entering a powerful price discovery phase. If current trends continue, Bitcoin might not just rival gold.
It could surpass it. This might not be just another bull run. It could mark the beginning of a paradigm shift. So, what do you think? Are Bitcoin and AI the two biggest tech revolutions of our time? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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