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영상은 Cathie Wood(ARK Invest)가 테슬라에 대해 장기 낙관을 유지하면서도 단기 주의를 촉구한다는 내용을 다룬다. 2024년 1분기 실적 전 생산 증가 둔화, 차세대 플랫폼·로보택시·사이버트럭 기대가 언급되며, 잉여현금흐름은 공장 투자로 단기 압박이 예상된다. 주장 근거는 주로 2019~2024년 인용과 기대치 서술이다.
다듬은 글
um they're they're not going to be able to keep up with this and and one of the reasons we learned an important lesson from from Tesla the S&P did not put Tesla in that index until it had hit $500 billion in market cap why well uh two of their criteria uh are uh four a four quarter moving average of profitability with the last quarter uh profitable well Tesla didn't hit that I think until 2020 or 21 I I forget I think it was 21 was it Brett that sounds right yes and just think think about that how many companies are bigger than that 500 trillion I know by the way most people who waited until the S&P gave them permission to move into Tesla are underwater right now because there as as is always the case with disruptive innovation there's controversy and it has taken uh taken the stock down AR investors just issued a warning to all Tesla investors and it's something that everyone has got to listen to if you're a Tesla Vester either for the short or long term then this is one that you don't want to miss out on but before we delve into the details listen to what Kathy Wood just said in a recent interview on CNBC last year it was cheaper than this I think you bought some more a good chunk a little bit more than a week ago do you keep buying it as it goes down if it continues to go down this year Well if you um if you've watched our trading and we do publish our trades at the end of every day uh you'll see that we've been trading uh Tesla at the margin so uh when it is uh soaring and everybody's excited about the good news as we move towards electric vehicles we will take profits and likewise as uh as investors and Traders begin to fear that we're going to be in an air pocket you know we've got a five-year investment time Horizon and we think uh that in five years most Car Sales will be electric uh and that is a trend that lower prices actually are going to encourage so that's the uh good deflation as we've got uh electric driv train prices coming down okay uh impr price Tesla can price down it can price down if we're in a weak spot globally and it does appear that we are certainly China and uh Europe uh and even here in the United States Kathy Wood's bullishness on Tesla has started since the ultimaker's early days back in 2017 when most folks saw Elon musk's electric Vision as just a dream wood was out there singing its Praises in fact she predicted a $11,000 priz Target a forecast that sent shock waves through the investing world and guess what she wasn't wrong Tesla's sword defying Skeptics and making wood look like a genius furthermore this cemented her reputation as a Visionary and her bullishness on Tesla only intensified to the point where Kathy Wood up the anti predicting a mindboggling $3,000 price Target by 2025 Kathy Wood's latest warning serves as a reminder for investors that Tesla remains a very profitable company irrespective of how you look at it it's also a wake-up call for anyone who's still sleeping on the many opportunities that investing in Tesla has to offer let's listen to this let's focus on what the Market's looking at in the first instance which is a Next Generation EV platform is coming we're coming out the back of the the model 3 and Y era so output will be less in 2024 from a growth perspective does that worry you yeah well you said it you know we're really focused on the long term here at ARK invest which really you should be for a disruptive name like Tesla so you know they they did mention yes production um growth for this coming year will be slower uh you know they they are focused on this next Generation vehicle platform and they're they're attributing you know the the part of the cautiousness on production to that and overall that's a great thing right um you know as well as anyone that I'm excited about the robo taxi opportunity so the fact that they're building a custom uh Robo taxi vehicle is really exciting it shows their confidence and their autonomous capability um you know we have fsd2 their you know latest version of the autonomous technology software in the car rolling out to customers that that again shows confidence and their capability we also heard that um Optimus might begin shipping next year so I think you know Tesla is this Behemoth in the AI space it's going to be one of the greatest AI opportunities of our time and I I think to ignore that is is frankly wrong when thinking about the stock so I'm excited about it well the nextg vehicle platform joins the the traditional car making side of the story with the AI story right what did we learn mus said it would be low cost that they're making progress on start of production which will start in Texas in the first instance but he said take 2025 with a grain of salt did you learn enough during the call about the nextg platform to fully understand where we go from here on this future Robo taxi concept yes well I I'd say you know overall I I think Elon is a lot more cautious than he has been in the past with his forecast I mean he said it on the call that he has been really optimistic with timelines um and honestly who can blame him because I think humans in general are pretty bad at predicting AI progress um but yes we heard that they can start production next year on The Next Generation vehical platform you know I think there's a lot of cause for optimism in what they said around margins so we saw Automotive gross margin marins ex credits tick up in the quarter um you know we did hear that one they're they're cutting costs on a per car basis um in in a way that's really unprecedented in the Auto industry um and they also said that even though you know on their current vehicle platform they're sort of reaching the limits of that cost reduction that doesn't mean that they're done right um so we heard on the design side um you know it's commodity prices that flows through to the underlying cost of the vehicle that takes some time so there's still optim ISM there and I think that's amazing um I mean when you look at EVS as a whole traditional automakers are cutting back on their electric vehicle platforms I mean that's a bad idea because EVS are already cost competitive with gas powerered cars and guess what it's only going to get cheaper so this is the future and and Tesla is the leader there the plot between Katy wood and Tesla has been interesting for a while however 2023 rolled in and cracks were starting to appear in woods unwavering optimism Tesla St get a rough p and would ever the pragmatist acknowledged the bumps the investment expert won of a volatile period ahead citing the Cyber trucks potential production W and the overall maturing EV Market even her $3,000 prediction was quietly shelved replaced by a revised $2,000 Target by 2027 still bullish but with a dose of reality however it's still undeniable that the Cyber truck is a money printer that's soon to be revealed hey guys welcome back to Tesla tomorrow Tesla recently disclosed that it's set to launch a nationwide tour to Showcase its Flagship cybertruck pickup truck in its second largest market China the ultimaker disclosed this on Chinese social media messaging website WeChat noting that it's able to ship some prototypes of cybertruck for display in China even though it will be difficult to make the vehicle legal for the road interestingly Tesla launched the road show of its Flagship cybertruck pickup across eight cities in China which attracted massive attention among Chinese netizens and Tesla fans for instance the Cyber trucks Beijing tour was held at the Tesla store in the city's Central business district and it attracted a large number of audience although the pickup was only displayed in static there were also reports that unlockers took roughly about 2 hours in the queue in order to see the vehicle unlike the US pickups have a niche product in China where many cities governments and beij being included don't actually allow them to enter downtown areas and Tesla does not even open cybertruck for order on its Chinese website however this is the first step to becoming something big and investors as well as enthusiasts and analysts are actually taking notes for instance while Kathy Wood is cautious about the future of the cybertruck it is still one of the biggest betters when it comes to the potential of the Cyber truck in fact her firm Arin vest has actually constantly reiterated the profitability of cybertruck and cited its potential against similar vehicles from rival auto makers before we carry on if you're as excited about the future of Tesla as we are then be sure to hit a like on the video and subscribe and ring the notification Bell to keep up to date on everything going on with Tesla in 2019 Katy wood shared her thoughts on the cybertruck stating that she looked at it from many different angles and it f surpasses other trucks according to the Tesla bull when it comes to comparing the Cyber truck to the for F-150 there's absolutely no comparison W noted that the Cyber truck would be a significant competitor to the F-150 explaining that other electric vehicle makers will have to sell off their own vehicles at either a loss or a higher price since Tesla is able to produce it to own batteries and is lowering its overall cost in making EVS Kathy Wood made this statement as a tweet in response to Arc Chief futurist Brett Winton who pointed out on Twitter that Tesla's margins in certain vehicle categories have been better than those of traditional auto makers Brett Winton had highlighted the incredible potentials of a cybertruck stating that even though the vehicle's exoskeleton design could deliver Tesla an impeachable performance cost advantage in the segment it's still something that's worth looking out for in this tweet winter noted that in CA Tesla is still delivering transformative margins in vehicle segments where traditional automakers can barely hold water he also added that TLA could opt for similar margins in trucks and by doing so push all of its incumbent domestic competitors onto its cyber Tru Blade the aranes chief futurist explained that while Tesla took on engineering risk for both the cybertruck model X the risk embedded in the Cyber Tru exoskeleton acrs to the core cost performance characteristics of the vehicle there's a learning curve with EVs and I think a lot of people go to Herz and say I'm going to try my uh first EV and they learn okay if you're going to drive uh you know 50 miles or 100 miles you've got to start thinking about uh charging so a bit of a learning curve it is true that the repairs uh the repairs cost more but maintenance also costs 60% less so there's a bit of a trade-off if you listen to Uber on the other hand uh Dar will tell you that they're encouraging more of their drivers to rent from uh Herz and others uh because the the the drivers get more uh Uber's take rate is not more so it is really beneficial for drivers and consumers love them they're willing to pay up so uh you know when Innovation is evolving and the infrastructure is moving into place but not quite there especially in terms of repairs you're going to go through fits and starts like this but the trend is undeniable last year last year electric vehicle sales globally were up 28% while uh gas powered vehicle sales were up 9% so share gain still one of Tesla's most anticipated projects in recent years is cybertruck and several experts have predicted that the vehicle will yield massive gains for Tesla with some estimating 10,000 truck deliveries as part of his overall 1.9 million delivery estimate for 2023 according to Winter the manufacturing approach for the cybertruck is so different from anything else in the pipeline that if Tesla lands cost on sides it will likely mortally affect the domestic manufacturers even Kathy Wood has disclosed that Tesla's cybertruck is the sleeper that could destroy the pricing structure of light duty Vehicles if you recall Ford's FS Series has been the bestselling vehicle for 41 years straight Ford introduced an electric version of the truck and while it did see strong demand the company struggled to keep up with Supply but things could be different for the Cyber truck the truck is Tesla's most daring design to date unlike most Vehicles it's got an exoskeleton body and it's going to be made out of 90% recycled stainless steel Tesla unveiled the Cyber truck back in November 2019 and since then the vehicle has amassed over 1 million reservations with some estimates pushing the reservation number as high as 3 million indicating that demand for the Cyber truck is through the roof amid sales of traditional pickup trucks and a large number of reservations for the Cyber truck expectations for Tesla's new pickup truck are running high and it will continue for a long time um if things go according to plan we'll be hitting around like a 20 perish Topline growth for this year uh we will be seeing uh operating margins slip under the double digits it sounds like according to your analysis and then uh in terms of the cash flow and uh margins that make its way down to earnings what's like the worst case scenario I mean we are though formally past the uh the loss days of Tesla or is that a risk that they might post the loss of things get uh bad enough I I don't I wouldn't expect to see a loss on the income statement free cash flow is a different story though given that they're still investing heavily to ramp up their factories and investing in expansions um you know I do think that there is a risk that we see negative free cash flow if we were going to look at downside risk for the quarter but likely at I I'd expect uh you know smaller but solid positive free cash flow Generations similar to the third quarter results when when they report tonight yeah what does that history look like for us give me the perspective there is I don't know the numbers off of hand but I do think that's an important one because their whole entrance into the S&P 500 was such a seminal moment for the company getting the profitability moving past the kind of early risk phase where there were so many haters that it wasn't going to work cash flow out would be a kind of reminder that all right yes it's a mature company but there are moments of strain yeah yeah you know Tesla has over the last couple years been able to generate solid positive free cash flow we've seen that start to dip a little bit as we've seen profit margins decline which is to be expected when you have a margin Decline and you're cutting prices to Spur volumes that's Tesla's growth strategy that they think sets them up for a long-term growth because they they want to sell as many vehicles as possible so so that there's more potential customers once they get the full self-driving subscription software to a level three version that's ready for the public but in the meantime as they've been uh investing to ramp up their new factories and expanding production and and building new vehicles like the Cyber truck that is Weighing on free cash flow so we saw free cash flow dip under the billion dollars or quarter uh last quarter and you know I I would not expect them to be above a billion dollars this quarter either so in the near term we're seeing a lower free cash flow generation from the company but they believe that they're investing to set themselves up for much stronger free cash flow generation in the next several years so we'll have to see how that Dynamic plays out in 2024 Katy Wood's love for Tesla continues to wax longer despite Tesla's recent stock struggles Woods hasn't abandoned her ship in fact Arc invest recently brought more shares signaling her continued belief in the company's long-term potential but there is a catch her bullishness hinges heavily on Tesla's success the autonomous driving a robot taxi space a market she firmly believes is worth a whopping $9 trillion by 2030 so it's not just about sleep cars anymore but Tesla's ability to revolutionize Transportation entirely so well ases this lever say w still head over heels for Tesla well it's complicated her bullishness remains but it's tempered with caution wood sees the challenges the potential roadblocks but her faith in Tesla and its disrupted power has not wavered it's like saying she believes in Tesla and knows that it will prove itself eventually with this said we can say that Kathy Wood and Tesla are like a matchmade in heaven but not exactly it's more like a passionate romance with a fair share of drama and plot twists what the proclaimed Oracle of disruptive Technologies has long been a Tesla cheerleader but her pronouncements are also peppered with caveats and cautionary Whispers And while she does think that Tesla is a profitable stock she also recommends being cautious on the investment Katy wood and Tesla's relationship is a fascinating one a testament to the ever evolving landscape of innovation and the risks and rewards that also come with it whether their story is a happy ending one well it remains to be seen but one thing is for sure and it's a story worth watching filled with twist turns and drama to keep Wall Street on the edge of its seat what do you think let us know down below and let us know your valuation of Tesla and if you want to know more about what tesel has been up to over the last few days go ahead and click on this next video on your screen see you there
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