저자: Kazuma · 외국인
요약 보기
출연자는 SOXL 단기 매매로 10월 4일 매수, 11월 14일 매도해 약 17.7만 엔(약 18% 수익)을 실현했다고 밝힌다. 매도 근거는 상단 저항선 근접과 1시간봉 MACD 데드크로스이며, 엔비디아 실적(11/16) 앞둔 리스크 회피를 덧붙인다. 향후 큰 폭락을 예상하면서도 SOXL 재매수 조건(채널선 근접 후 쿨링 MACD 골든크로스)을 제시한다. 단기투자는 전 시청자에게 권하지 않는다고 강조하고, 과거 손절 경험과 '99% 수익' 주장은 픽션이라고 스스로 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Kazuma. Thank you for watching again today. Today, I'd like to start by saying that I've discovered the next conversation that can make a full 99% profit in just one month of selling Soxl. Yes, I'd like to apologize right from the start of the video. I wish there was an investment method that could make a profit with a 99% probability so that you would never go into investing, but of course there isn't.
I apologize to anyone who thinks this is clickbait. However, in addition to the next excellent conversation, I have found the strongest pitcher, so I would like to introduce that after the Soxl selling results. So, without further ado, I would like to reveal the results of my short-term investment in Soxl.
As I mentioned in the previous video, I bought 650 shares of Soxl at a limit price of $10.72 on Tuesday, October 4th, for a total of 1,005,663 Japanese yen, and sold them on November 14th. The result of the investment for about one month was a profit of 1,182,978 yen, or 177,315 yen. Leaving aside the amount, this was my first time ever taking profits.
What stocks were your first time taking profits? Let me know in the comments. My idea was that with this short-term investment, using the midterm elections in October and Otsuka, I could make about a 50% profit in a month, but I guess I was being too optimistic. So why did I sell at this timing? I only posted a quick sale announcement on Instagram, but I'd like to explain the reason.
I've previously mentioned that I use the "Cooling MACD" method and that the next time I sell will be when the Cooling MACD has made a death cross in the positive range. On November 14th, when I sold, not only did a death cross at the level of a Cooling MACD signal occur, but the signal was actually pointing upwards.
This signal can be set from 9 to 4 to speed up the signal, which means you can speed up the buy/sell timing. I checked the MACD at signal 4 on November 14th, but of course, there was no sell signal. However, this is a trend line that I roughly drew on the soxl chart. When drawing trend lines, in a downtrend, I drew a resistance line called an upper resistance line connecting the highs, and created a channel line parallel to that line, using the most recent low as the axis.
An upper resistance line indicates that the stock price will not rise any further, and in fact, you can see that the stock price of soxl has been moving between this upper resistance line and the channel line. And on November 14th, soxl was moving near the upper resistance line, which is the first reason why I sold.
This trend line can determine the major trend, but if it breaks through the upper resistance line and continues to rise, it can be determined that the trend has reversed. And on November 14th, assuming that it would not rise above the upper resistance line, the area where I sold would be the most recent high.
And I always use the "Cooling Down" method for short-term investing, and looking at the 1-hour chart of MacLeod, the signal line was forming at 23:30 when the market opened, and I judged that a death cross would occur very soon. And the time I sold It was 11:32 PM, right after the market opened, and then a death cross occurred on the 1-hour MACD chart at 4:30 AM.
The order in which death crosses and golden crosses occur is hourly chart, then weekly chart, then monthly chart. Since the hourly chart showed a death cross, it was highly likely that a death cross would also occur on the next cooling MACD chart. Therefore, if I had waited until the cooling MACD signal 9 death cross signal appeared, there was a possibility that I would have sold at a time when the price had fallen even further than the current price.
I decided to sell on November 14th. Some of you may think that it's too early to make a decision based on the 1-hour chart, but even during the previous rebound, a death cross on the 1-hour chart was confirmed on August 5th when the price approached the upper resistance line, but I was able to sell at a fairly high price between the trend lines.
Although I decided to sell, the price has rebounded quite strongly since the last CPI announcement, and it wouldn't be surprising if it rose sharply towards the end of the year. If I had not sold and had continued to hold, I felt that I could make even more profit, but the stock price is near the upper resistance line, and I am also predicting a major crash in the near future, and I expect it to break below the level it reached after the last CPI announcement on October 13th, so I felt it would be dangerous to take on too much risk in a situation where a crash could happen at any time.
One more thing to add is that I am creating this video on November 15th, so by the time you go to school, the announcement will have been made, but NVIDIA, the central figure of SOXL, is scheduled to release its earnings on November 16th, and if the results fall far short of expectations, it will have a considerable impact on the stock price, so I decided to sell before the earnings announcement.
However, on November 15th, Berkshire Hathaway purchased TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor company, for 720 billion yen, and the pre-market has already been hit hard. Congratulations to those who were still holding on November 15th. So, I have rambled on about the reasons for selling, but I was able to make a profit from this short-term investment, so I am like Warren Buffett and Cathy If I had even the slightest feeling that I was a skilled investor who lined up woods, I would be completely devastated, but I think that the fact that I was able to make a profit was just pure luck.
To begin with, I think I made a huge mistake with the timing of this purchase. If I had drawn a channel line based on the low point reached on July 5th, I could have predicted that the price would fall to the price on October 13th, but I bought on October 4th, right in the middle of the resistance battle and the channel line.
If I had bought 1 million yen using this method after the golden cross, I would have made a profit of about 700,000 yen, which is 71.71%, and my unrealized profit/loss for this year would definitely have been positive. There's no point in dwelling on the past, as I can't go back to the past, so I want to learn from this big mistake and move on to the next short-term investment.
And everyone, although I was able to make a profit this time by chance, don't forget that I am the king of stop-losses. This year, I thought that even if I bought debalance, it would fall anyway, so I bought soxl as a short-term pitcher from February, but the result at that time was the investment amount My investment of 496,069 yen had resulted in a profit of 347,195 yen, so I cut my losses at -148,874 yen.
I previously posted a video explaining why I cut my losses, but to summarize briefly, in short-term investing, if you buy at a high price and continue to experience unrealized losses, past data shows that it is better to cut your losses and buy again at an even lower price than to hold on until the unrealized losses recover.
So, I cut my losses in the previous short-term investment and this time I restarted short-term investing at an even lower price. By combining the previous loss of 148,874 yen and this time's profit of 177,315 yen, I managed to recover the previous loss, but it's a pathetic investment result. I haven't been able to make satisfactory investments in either the last or this time, but I will use this experience to introduce a discovery of an investment method that can generate 99% profits.
It sounds quite suspicious, doesn't it? This 99% profit rate on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is fiction. Please listen with that in mind. Now, I'd like to introduce the timing and the Tokyo Stock Exchange, but I believe that the timing of the daily MACD golden cross the day after the price has fallen to near the channel line, using the trend line I created, is the perfect opportunity to make a profit 99% of the time.
However, the prerequisite for short-term investing is that the major trend does not change. If the trend does not reverse and the price falls again to near the channel line, it will inevitably rise towards the resistance line. Therefore, if you buy at the cooling golden cross that indicates the next upward trend after the price has fallen to near the channel line, you will be able to make a profit 99% of the time.
If the price has fallen to near the correct channel line, you might think that it would be better to buy prematurely rather than waiting for the cooling golden cross, but if the trend reverses, there is a possibility that the stock price will plummet without a cooling MACD golden cross occurring near the channel line.
Therefore, the timing of the price falling to the channel line and the cooling golden cross together is the perfect opportunity. I feel like we're having a conversation. If a major trend reversal doesn't occur, and the price falls to near the channel line, which is my purchase condition, and then a golden cross occurs with a significant cooling without crossing the channel line, I plan to combine the profits I've made this time with 1 million yen and buy everything at that time.
If the price falls much more than the correct channel line, it means the trend has reversed, so in that case, this vote will not apply, and I will refrain from short-term investment. However, as I mentioned when I bought sofl last time, there is a major downtrend in the middle of it, and I hold a 3x bull that generates profits by rising against the trend, so it feels like I'm crossing a very dangerous suspension bridge.
I was actually lucky enough to make a profit by chance, but I myself am anticipating a major crash in the future, so to use the suspension bridge analogy, if I don't turn back at some point, the suspension bridge will break and I will fall into the abyss. So there is a possibility that a crash is waiting in the future, and even so, if I continue with this short-term investment, I must be prepared to cut my losses at times.
That's why I am this I don't recommend short-term investing to everyone, and I've said this many times, but I hope you can enjoy it as a topic of conversation over drinks, like "Oh, there was someone like this too." However, if you're thinking, "Are you saying I should just sit back and enjoy all the good stuff?", then be prepared to cross this suspension bridge together without a safety harness, as it could be dangerous at any moment.
This is strictly a short-term investment, so if anyone is buying with me, please refrain from using funds you've painstakingly saved for long-term investment. We aim to be undertakers; we're not going to buy Teslas or Tecl in the future just to make a profit of a few hundred thousand yen like this. So, I hope you can approach this short-term SOXL investment like a game.
We post SOXL trading updates on Instagram, so please follow us if you're interested. The funds from this sale will all be transferred to Tesla when the market turns upward. Of course, we also have funds saved to invest in Tesla in addition to this, but by making short-term investments in the future...
Whether 1 million yen becomes 2 million yen or 500,000 yen, it all depends on my investment timing and SOX. If you think this farce will continue, and if you want to walk through crashes and bombings together, please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. So, I've talked about SOX, but while I say it's just a topic for drinking, I'm just an ordinary person who's neither rich nor high-earning, so there's no way I can easily make a 1 million yen purchase, and I would never throw it down the drain.
I'm very serious about expanding my assets, however I understand that it's a risky move, so I'm not recommending it to everyone as a drinking topic, but if it continues to generate profits in the future, I will recommend it with confidence, and I will also keep an eye on the conversation and buy in.
With the possibility of the market downturn continuing for months or even years, I couldn't just sit around and wait, so I thought hard about how to increase my assets even a little. There is a famous quote by Warren Buffett that says you should never lose money, and this is Is that really true? The first time I started short-term investing with soxl, I didn't even use trend lines, and I invested before using trends because the price had fallen 40% from its high, and I lost about 150,000 yen.
And in my second short-term investment, even though I could have made a profit of around 700,000 yen instead of 170,000 yen, I made a mistake in judgment and ended up losing money. But it is because I lost money that I reflected, improved, and will consider investment timing more carefully in order to get even bigger bombs in the future.
Don't lose money. That's a great saying that, unusually for me, doesn't apply. When I become a father, I will tell my son to lose money and not to repeat the same mistakes I made myself. At this point, there is a lot to reflect on and still room for improvement, but when I am able to create an investment that will shock you all, I will introduce it with confidence, so until then please skip ahead a little.
And in 10 years I will be super rich, buy a Ferrari, and together with your Ferrari, I will lead about 100 Ferraris and then have a grand fire. We're having a party, so please bring me a gift of sweets worth 1 million yen! Thank you for sticking with my farce until the end today. See you in the next video!
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