저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2018년 2월 7일 CNBC-TV18 Power Breakfast 방송 요약. 오늘의 결론: 루핀 실적은 마진 압박으로 실망스러웠지만 경영진은 바닥 신호를 언급했고, 전반적으로 실적 발표가 이어지는 날이다. 루핀(Lupin) 실적: 3분기 마진 17%로 실망, 매출은 약 13% 감소. 가격 압박이 주요 원인으로 지목됨. 루핀 경영진 콘퍼런스콜: 대형 제약사들의 제품 포트폴리오 축소를 업계 바닥 신호로 해석. 최근 6개월간 제품 단종 건수가 지난 몇 년보다 많았다고 언급. 일부 제품은 과거보다 높은 마진으로 물량을 확보했으나 포트폴리오 30~40%에서 그런 상황은 아직 아님. 미국 FDA 경고서한 재실사 시점에 대해서는 명확한 목표 제시 없음. 히어로모토코프(Hero MotoCorp) 실적: 매출 약 15%, 판매량 약 16% 성장. 실적은 컨센서스에 부합. 실현 단가 3.5~4% 상승, 스쿠터 매출 약 23% 증가, 스페어파츠 매출 35% 이상 증가. 경영진은 업계 두 자릿수 성장을 계속 예상하고 스쿠터 점유율은 약 14%로 상승. 주가는 긍정적 경영진 코멘트로 상승 기대. 아쇼크레이랜드(Ashok Leyland) 관련: 로열엔필드 판매 성장 둔화(약 18~24%)로 최근 3개월 주가 약 12~15% 하락. 상용차 부문은 물량 약 40% 증가로 호조. 연결 매출 약 20% 성장, 영업이익률 약 31.7% 보합, 이익 성장 약 23% 전망. 아우로빈도(Aurobindo)·수핀(Sun Pharma) 등 제약 실적 프리뷰: 아우로빈도 매출 약 11% 성장, 마진 약 23% 예상. 미국 사업(매출 비중 약 47%)의 가격 압박이 핵심 관전 포인트. 수핀(Supra 등 표기) 마진은 약 19.3% 예상(범위 18~21%), 18% 미만이면 실망으로 판단. 원자재/선물옵션: 미 달러 강세 일시 중단, 원유 안정. 금속 가격은 전일 하락 후 상하이 매수 유입. 외국인 선물옵션 포지션은 지수 롱 노출이 80%대에서 58%로 감소하고 풋 매수 증가로 하방 헤지 강화 관측. 주목 종목: 샤론 관개, 인디아 시멘트, 워크하트. 추천 종목(방송 내 콜): 바이온 MCC 매수(손절 108.5, 목표 115), 맥스 파이낸셜 매수(손절 518, 목표 545), 루핀 매도(손절 808, 목표 770), LNT 파이낸스 매수(손절 156, 목표 168), 어반 리미티드 매수(목표 403, 손절 369), SRF 매수(목표 1822, 손절 1692), DishTV 매수(목표 70.5, 손절 70.5 부근), 워크하트 매수(목표 793, 손절 713). 출연자 개별 소속과 명시적 시장 방향 전망은 자막상 확인 불가.
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please subscribe and don't forget to press the bell icon to get notified whenever we upload a new video q3 earnings yesterday and the margins were the key disappointment coming in at 17% primarily due to the pricing pressure also the revenue fell around 13% the big bull of Indian market Rakesh injured Malik where's the management in the conference call yesterday here is an excerpt of that conversation you'll see it on one side sandals and he was holding down some products some reduction in sales or products what does it mean is it I mean are you saying that the problem a Nobel Prize in his practice would be actual values are still beginning well so we think that is really starting to bottom out when you start seeing large players like Tevin sandals getting out of you know a large portfolio of products it really sends a signal that they are at the pain point you know from our perspective also I mean the light the number of products continuations that we have seen in the last six months has been more than what I've seen in the last couple of years again to me that's a signal that companies have you know got to their pain point you know when I sit down with a number of our peers both your as well as in the US and what I'm hearing from companies are the CEOs is that you know all of them have been challenged over the last couple of years and believe that for us to be able to maintain a healthy generic market we have to you know be able to get a reasonable return on our the products that we supply so all of those suggest to me that we're starting to see a bottoming out you know we have seen a few products where we have been able to pick up volume at a margin higher than what we have seen in the past but I wish I could say that for you know 30 40 % of my foot of our portfolio but now I you know I would hope that within this year we start we chart to see the bottom you know I think it's we're close to it right so level but the number of products is coming down all right that's not all in fact CNBC tv18 so very on a table etre she also asked the management on the plans for their go up land during the earnings call listening in terms of the warning letter when can we probably expect to re-invite the US FDA for re-inspection I know you want to close this in the but what would your target be okay time for a quick break but up next Hero MotoCorp meets estimates reports a in line set of water will take you through the expectations from the rest of the former world and talk about hearing wittekop numbers after this short break we're getting only rates coming in from both hang seng as well as Shanghai Hang Seng Index should come up for you sitting with a gain of a twenty four points we are getting the Shanga in our kids to up about one percent the HDX nifty indicated a start of hundred points at the open and now that has increased to about 130 point so we'll keep an eye out on that but we do have a lot of earnings to contend with shifting focus to the auto space now Hero MotoCorp reported a mixed set in line with what the expectations were suniye is here with the key highlights morning Sonia hi Mangalam thanks a lot for that well the earnings were absolutely in line with sweet expectations no surprises but I expect the stock to be in the green because the management commentary was very positive this time around the air top-line growth was pretty impressive it came in at fifteen percent that's one account of a good 16 percent growth in their volumes more importantly the realizations for the company have gone up despite a higher raw material costs overall impacting the imagines the realizations for them have risen about three and a half four percent on a year-on-year basis now remember the SCOOTER business and the premium motorcycle business has been a bit sluggish but this court has not been too bad so scooters have gone up about 23 odd percent the management said that they have improved their market share in the scooter business and are focusing very hard on improving the - Pocket scooters and premium motorcycles they also said that they continue to expect double-digit growth for the industry they have gained market share in motorcycles and in the scooter business in fact the scooter business market share has improved to 14% at the end of this quarter versus about a 12% that we saw at the start of the fiscal also the spare parts business is doing very well revenues from they have gone up more than 35 odd percent and that aided their earnings this time around okay Sonia so that was about Hero MotoCorp but what are the expectations from either Motors today is it expected to zoom ahead well you know Pfizer motors they have two wings right there's the Royal Enfield Business and the commercial vehicle business Royal Enfield has been decent in fact it's been lagging a bit in the last couple of months that's why I've seen the stock underperform with a commercial vehicle business has done exceptionally well for the sector this time and I expect that will really lead our motors overall performance we are expecting a revenue growth on a consolidated basis to come in at 20 percent a bit de growth of 22 or % operating profit margins will be flat at about 31 point 7 percent largely stable you'd have to say and overall profit growth of 23 odd percent now for the Royal & Field business particularly the volume growth has slowed down the company has done in 25 30 percent volume growth for the past many quarters this time it's slowed down to about eighteen and a half four percent and that's the reason why the stock also has fallen about 1215 percent in the last three months itself but commercial vehicle business has done very well so the volumes have gone up by almost 40 percent and that will that is what will give that overall revenue and a better growth of 20% plus all right Sonia thanks a lot for that that's as far as eyshan motors is concerned remember the stock was up about 4% from the low point in yesterday's session ahead of numbers today as well but let's move on to our daily dose of medicines sip la and Auto Pharma will be reporting its 3rd quarter numbers 3 ACTA what is the street expecting well I'll start with the Aurobindo numbers this quarter so for example the Aurobindo quarter is expected to be quite stable so revenue is expected to grow around 11% on your on your basis with margins coming in at around 23% which would be flat on a urine your basis and a profit growth of around 80 not per se now the most important thing is basically what's going to happen with the US business remember that the u.s.
is around 47% of sales for a window and this quarter area is really expected to probably be aided by Renville a generic the Kidney drunk that they had launched with limited competition in the month of June and July of the 2017 but incrementally Renville a generic has seen competition and hence Q&Q the US business is likely to be impacted because of pricing pressure within Renville ah but ah now you're on your basis you are going to see the higher sales impact them positively so that's on Aurobindo and commentary obviously with regards to the US business would be top of mind now for supply the interesting part of the numbers is the consistent kind of margin improvement that we've seen for supply and they have guided to the market that there will be a consistency or sustainability in terms of the margins that we've got they've seen so that would probably be the first thing to watch out for and if you're talking about the margins we're expecting around nineteen point three percent versus 18.6% with a range anywhere between 18 to 21 percent so that's important anything probably sub 18 percent would be a big disappointment or a disappointment for supply this time around so that would be important and again this would be probably driven by one cost-cutting and as well as the US business where we had a launch of a particular drug palmi core generic and that is going to aid the numbers and the overall margins okay thank you so much for that sub is City lined up for you with supply nor up in the pharma but time now for a quick break up next we'll get you a check on the Cuse who watching the futures and options face stay tuned well let's get chatting about commodities now in Manisha Gupta joins us with all the update does happenings in the commodity space Manisha good morning we're seeing equity is recovering some of the losses made over the last couple of sessions is that decreasing commodities as well Mike white mixer if you ask me for the commodity as other space really we have seen the crude oil tries to stabilize a bit but that's because the US dollar gains have kind of paused you also are looking at the US weekly inventory numbers coming in today where the expectation is that you might see another drawing the US inventories and that has been supportive as well and as you pointed out here some support in equity markets definitely will support the underlying raw materials so there somewhat of a buying that we have in comes on metal face yesterday wasn't such a great day you saw nickel prices declined by two percent zinc lead copper everything was down between one to one-and-a-half percent but in Shanghai right now we are looking at a bit of a buying coming in here the markets also would continue to watch out for the US data that would be leaves in the evening for further direction all right money show thanks a lot for that let's just focus to the F&O space then the futures an option space yesterday very very interesting action because the FI is the sole in the cash markets they bought something in the stock futures perhaps converted some of their positions there they sold in index futures and bought a lot of boots so that picture should come up for you right now twenty three crore worth selling in the cash market sixteen hundred crore worth selling in index futures but twenty eight hundred crore worth purchase in index options most of that deployed towards buying boots and stock futures maybe they converted some of their cash positions in to stop futures and what is happening you know any shot they can give you a picture of cricketing parlance what they've done is they started the series thinking that it's a flat pitch let's go out and hit six is now they've realized that it's not a flat pick so they've called for some protection so last three three three sessions they've been buying some puts Kohl Channing has reduced but they believe that may be upside could face some bit of a hurdle so take that point forward the start of the series and now point forward they started the series with eighty percent long exposure 60 percent long exposure and indexed boots and 76 percent exposure in index calls now that has come down to 58% Long's in index futures increase their long puts and decreased their long calls so they are seeing some protection yesterday we saw the 10,500 calls seeing a bit of writing so maybe we can see some bit of short covering there ten thousand three hundred and ten thousand puts added some positions on the short side maybe those guys will go home with a fair amount of premium in their pockets in terms of stocks watch out for Sharon irrigation that ones entered the FN Tobin again after coming out of it yesterday and out of FN Oban our India cement and walk heart so we'll keep an eye out on those two stocks ok mom thank you so much for that little bit of food buying is seen from the FI eyes now but with that it is a wrap and power breakfast we leave you with the pics of a bull's eye can test this for the week my first call today is a baikal in century fly boats it's stuff was built 283 for target of 314 my second pick is a baikal in nowhere adventures it's topless will have 138 for target of 158 my third call is a circle in Voltas which topped us about 611 for Tiger of fine 1150 and my last fall is a cell : Heidi we a bank which talk to us about 61/4 target around 52 i first of call for the day will be a baiioon mcc which i buy with a stop loss at 108 1/2 and with the target of 1 1 5 my second pick will be a buy on max financial which can be bought with the stop loss at 5 1 8 and a target of 545 my third stop call will be a cell on lupin with a stop loss at 808 and a target of 770 and my final stop call will be a by own LNT financial finance holding with a stop loss at 156 and a target of 168 the first buy recommendation is one or will one can buy urban limited for a target of 403 with a stop loss of 369 the second my recommendation is on srf poisoned by a seraph for a target of 1822 with the stop loss of 1692 the third buy recommendation is on dishtv one can buy this TV for a target of 70 8.50 with the stop loss of 70 point 50 and the final my recommendation is on your card for moi one can buy Oakheart former for a target of 793 with a stop loss of 713 you
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