저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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결론: 현재 인도 증시는 2014년 이후 새로운 강세장 사이클 초입이며 다수 섹터가 점진적으로 참여할 것이라는 낙관적 견해. 원자재 시황: 원유는 지정학적 우려와 미국 원유 재고·리그 수 감소로 소폭 강세. 금·은은 보합, 귀금속은 차익 실현 물량 출회. 기본금속은 중국의 춘절 전 재고 확보와 강한 경제지표(GDP·제조업)로 지지. 상하이 철강 가격은 1.5% 상승 출발. 원자재 매매 전략: Angel Commodities의 금 매수 콜(목표가 29,900 근방 표기, 자막상 '20 9900'로 불명확), 아연 가격 221루피/kg까지 상승 전망. 시장 사이클: 2003~2007년은 자본재·자동차·은행 등 여러 섹터가 주도, 2007~2014년은 약세장으로 불리나 실제로는 부의 창출이 컸다고 주장. 2014년부터 화학 등 새 주도 섹터가 시작되었다고 봄. 화학 섹터: 2014년 이후 화학 업종이 본격 상승, 최소 5~10년 지속 전망. 개별 종목 견해: Kokuyo Camlin(문구)은 교육 관련 소형 수혜주이며 시장 규모 2만 크로어 대비 매출 600크로어 수준, 향후 3년 내 매출 두 배 가능성 제시. 다만 고평가 상태라 매수 권유는 하지 않음, 장기 보유 의향 언급. Karnataka Bank 지분은 올해 일부(약 1/3) 매도. 소형 은행 부실 우려 지속, 3월 분기 리스크 언급. 투자 조언: 장기 투자 구호 '사서 눈 감기'에 경계, 경영진 품질 중시, 좋은 섹터·좋은 경영진 선택 후 보유. 과열 경계, 두려움과 신중함 유지. 홈 개선(위생도기 등) 관련: 과거 Sarah 사례 언급하며 강세장은 10~15% 기본 수익률이 지속되는 것이라 설명, 추가 100배 상승은 기대하지 않음.
다듬은 글
please subscribe and don't forget to press the bell icon to get notified whenever we upload a new video. We promise we're going to shift from equities to commodities for a bit, so many shook up their jaws. Now, let's get a list of all the commodities that are buzzing this morning. Hi Manisha, good morning. Good morning, and thank you so much for that, Sonia.
I'll start with crude oil. After hitting a one-week low and declining half a percent in the previous week, we've seen some strength return. We're back in the green in the Asian markets right now, so global prices are trading half a percent higher, and that's exactly how the Indian markets have opened for trade as well. There has been support on the back of geopolitical concerns. You've also seen the U.S. rig count decline, and U.S. inventories have declined as well. All of that is showing up in the prices.
Gold and silver prices are flat. We saw a knee-jerk reaction on Friday night after the U.S. shutdown, but clearly that's not having an impact on the markets right now, and we've seen a bit of profit-taking come in for precious metals. Meanwhile, good buying has emerged in base metal prices. Shanghai steel prices are open one-and-a-half percent higher, and I notice they're trading a percentage point higher as well. There is restocking in China ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays, and that is supporting all of these base metal prices.
Apart from that, you've also seen strong economic data, whether it was China's GDP and manufacturing numbers in the previous week or strong U.S. manufacturing data, with business activity expanding. Inflation numbers have gone up too, and all of that has been supportive. In any case, many of these metals are looking at estimates of strong demand, and a deficit continuing for most of 2018, and that in turn is finding its way into prices.
We have trading strategies from Angel Commodities today. They have a buy call for gold, with 29,900 as their target for the day. They also have a strategy in the metals sector: for zinc, they expect prices to go higher, up to 221 rupees per kg for the day. Okay, thanks a lot for that. Manisha, markets are in a fine spot at this juncture. Okay, I think I spoke too soon. The midcap index has gone back into the red, but it's marginal, and it's still dilly-dallying in a very narrow range, so watch this space. The Sensex is still about 100 points higher. Things are still very wobbly, and the market is looking for direction, but maybe we'll get that from the investor we now have with us. Vijay Kedia, our managing director of Kedia Securities, is joining us. Good morning, Vijay, and thank you very much for joining us.
Well, first up, you've seen many of these cycles, and this is a question I'd ask a couple of others as well. How does this present juncture feel? Is it feeling like 2003, when we still have a long climb ahead, or is it feeling like we're in the middle of a bull run?
I'll share a different perspective, and I may be wrong, but this is what I'm feeling. Since 2003, there has always been a bull market in India, from 2003 till 2017. According to me, this bull market is 14 years old. Before 2003, in any bull market there used to be only one leader. For example, in '97 or 2000, IT was the only leader; all other sectors did nothing. Before that, cement was the leader, and everything else did nothing. If you remember, in the late 1980s, textiles were the rage in the market. Bombay Dyeing and Century were the darlings of the stock market. I know one broker who named his daughter Century. I didn't do that, but some people named their sons after a stock. Before that, automobiles were the leader.
Post-2003, some structural change took place in India, and many sectors became leaders in the market. For example, from 2003 to 2007, capital goods were the leader, automobiles were the leader, and banking was the leader. Not a single sector, but many leaders. From 2007 to 2014, which is termed a bear market, or the worst market in history, is when I think most people created their wealth. The wealth created between 2007 and 2014 was much greater than the wealth created between 2003 and 2008. Your guests coming on your channel, when did they create their major wealth? The only thing was that the allocation was different. The leadership that was there in 2003 to 2007 changed during 2007 to 2014. Personally, I'm lucky to have had stocks that gave me a return of not 100 percent, but 100 times, during 2007 to 2014. I'm sure most investment fund managers faced the same situation. Only the allocation was different. The stocks that did well between 2003 and 2007 didn't do well between 2007 and 2014. I think that change is still going on, so that's my perspective. Let's not discuss the definitions of bull and bear markets, because I think those definitions are a myth and wrong. I may be wrong, but according to me, the leaders of the next leg of this bull run could be different.
It depends. In 2003 and 2007, there were five, six, seven sectors, and in 2007 to 2014, four sectors misled the market. So now, if you say the bull market started in 2014 in general terms, many sectors will join the party, not only three or four or five. Maybe ten sectors will join. Some have already joined, and some will join later, maybe after one year, maybe after two years. For example, capital goods, which did pretty well during 2003 and 2007, didn't do well in 2007 to 2014, and they may join the party a little later, maybe after a year, when private capex picks up.
Are you buying Larsen & Toubro? No, no, I'm a small man. My investments are confined to small caps only, small caps and mid-caps, because I don't understand large caps. So I'll buy small and mid-sized companies. Some of these companies have done well for you, like Sudarshan Chemicals. I won't ask you for a stock call, but chemicals and commodities in general, where are we right now in the cycle, and do you think the cycle still has upside?
Of course. I think this cycle started in 2014. Before 2014, the whole chemical industry did nothing and didn't create any wealth for Indian investors for maybe 20 to 25 years, perhaps because of China, which everybody is discussing. I won't go into that because my knowledge about these things is very limited. But the chemical sector really started its run in 2014, and I think it should continue at least for five to ten years.
You've also been interested in consumption-oriented stocks. In the break, you were talking about something like Kokuyo Camlin. Can you explain the rationale, the industry outlook, and why this stock in particular?
Let me make two disclosures. First, I hold the shares. Second, it took me a pretty long time to pronounce the name correctly. It's Kokuyo, sometimes Kokuyo Camlin, whatever it is. It's a Japanese company, and it's an expensive share, so I'm not recommending anybody buy it, because it's expensive right now. You can call it a small proxy for the education sector. India's stationery market is worth around 20,000 crore, and this company has a turnover of just 600 crore, or 5,650 crore or something. Despite that, they went ahead and set up a plant at a cost of 100 crore, which is state-of-the-art, one of the best plants in the Kokuyo Camlin group. So going forward, I think turnover will double in three years, and the margin, which is very low right now, will also improve. It's a long-term story. I'm ready to hold the shares for maybe ten years. I don't know, I may sell tomorrow if something changes, but as of now it's a long-term story, and nothing is going to happen in one quarter, two quarters, or three quarters.
You have a stake in Karnataka Bank. Are there any other smaller banks you'd look at, either for an M&A play or because they'll grow organically?
Right now I'm focusing on Karnataka Bank, although I've sold some shares this year. I've sold a third of my shares in the market, temporarily. Maybe I'll buy them again. The pain in all these companies isn't over, because we're heading toward the NCLT list, which is also about to come. Let's see what happens. I think March should be the last quarter, when all these smaller banks will face some problems.
Vijay, you always remain 100 percent invested. A lot of money has been coming into our market from small investors through mutual funds, and last year was a phenomenally good year. What would be your advice to small investors in terms of keeping expectations for this year and next year?
For the last 20 to 30 years, channels like yours and others have been teaching our investors to buy for the long term. The slogan was "buy and shut your eyes." The problem now is that people are shutting their eyes and buying. So we should caution investors: don't shut your eyes and buy. The quality of management is very important. I always say on various platforms, management, management, management. Sometimes I feel my investment in the stock market is like boarding a flight. Before boarding, you do all your research: what's the track record of the airline, and everything. After you board, you have nothing to do but sit back and relax. That's what investing is like. The same theory should apply to investing: better to buy a good sector, better to buy good management, and then sit back and relax. Just don't be euphoric. I always say, be thoughtful, be fearful, and be careful, in this market or in any market. At any juncture, one has to be careful.
What's the next sunrise sector you'll look at? You have a finger in consumption, a bit of banking, and many chemicals. Which one are you most excited about?
It's very difficult to predict that, which is why my investments are diversified across so many sectors. I don't think the way I do it can be predicted that way. Let me ask one final question. Home improvement is a theme you've been bullish on in the past, with names like Sarda Sanitaryware. It's come back into favor. Do you think there could be big growth here?
Of course, we're all watching. But one thing I'd like to tell you: a bull market doesn't mean your stock goes from 100 rupees to 1,000 rupees. That's not what a bull market is. A bull market means that even in bad times you're getting a 10 to 15 percent return. Even a 10 percent return in bad times is a bull market. In good times you're making 20 to 30 percent returns, so your blended average is somewhere around 15 to 20 percent. At that rate you double your money in three to four years, and in ten years you're up nine or ten times. Sarda has given a hundred times return between 2007 and 2014, or maybe 2007 to 2017. I don't expect it to rise another 100 times from 2017 to 2027. But even if the company rises 15 or 20 percent a year, it will still do well for me.
Mr. Kedia, it's been a pleasure speaking with you. Thank you very much for dropping in and giving us those gems. Management, management, management. All right, we'll have to wrap up Buzzing on that note. Thank you.
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