저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
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러시아 에너지 수입 금지 발표를 앞둔 시장에서 SPY가 420.76 저점 지지 여부에 따라 방향이 갈린다고 봄. 원유는 급등 후 수직 상승 각도가 지속 불가능해 꺾일 수 있다고 경고. 달러 약세가 주식·금·비트코인에 우호적이며, 비트코인·이더리움은 규제 뉴스에도 반등. 확정은 봉 마감 후에만 가능하다는 기술적 관점 중심.
다듬은 글
hello youtube justin here in this video we're going to talk about oil and we're going to talk about how joe biden is going to be speaking at 10 45 a.m today and what the ramifications of that will be so let's jump straight in because there's a little bit for us to go through happy tuesday and uh we know that things are getting turbulent in terms of geopolitics so i think what's really important for us to understand is that it's okay to be wrong it is not okay to stay wrong and what i mean by that is uh yesterday i provided again a uh a bullish thesis uh that could happen sometime in the next couple of months and before we look at oil let's actually jump over here and look at spy so we have a dominant pattern in here uh we have a head and shoulders pattern we are now below the fifth dma we are below the green line which means that we're bearish um oops i don't have my uh turning software open let me open up that one um so what this basically just means to me is that um we lost the 427 low um after losing the uh the low where do we go back down and test well we tested the next low the next low here is at 420.76 we even went a little bit lower so what this already tells us is that if yesterday after we lost the 427 low we went back down to test the next one piercing the level means that dip buyers were no longer willing to buy at that level so let's think about that right now what do we do well we poke below the next low so if we're not able to save it today by getting back above 420.77 fast we're likely going to go back down and test this next one that's what technical analysis is and hopefully people understand that um and all it means is that we have to be aware of the levels and where we're wrong so again let me reiterate whoa my camera is really blurry um i'm just going to leave it off because it's really blurry um and yes my camera is a little bit blurry even though it's 1080p i apologize um and i'm vulnerable to making human emotional uh decision sometime right i'm human sorry for expressing emotion in some of the videos anyways uh jumping back to here what we have to keep in mind like i said is that if we if we rally today and we fail to claim 421 near the open that's really important because joe biden is going to be speaking at about 10 45 a.m today so let's think about this there is going to be a known catalyst that's going to be happening 75 minutes after the market opens if we are above or below the 420.76 area that's your clue um that's your clue why well because what joe biden's going to be talking about is going to be again the binary administration is poised to impose a ban on u.s imports of russian energy as soon as tuesday without participation of the european allies according to people familiar with the matter so what that means is that again 40 uh sorry 75 minutes after the market opens if we are above or below 421 it tells us whether or not the bulls or bears are in short from control if the bears are in control well where's the next natural support for them to cover or for the bolts to defend that's all the way down here roughly 410 so it's almost 10 points lower so again make this very simple if we are below um 4 20 at 10 45 a.m we are likely going lower however this has been pre-announced so if we are above 421 there is potential for us to snap back and get back up here to roughly 428.
the reason why i mentioned 428 as well is because we've already hit that level in the overnight section so on es we hit a high of roughly a high here is four two three three which means that we've already made some progress back higher is that enough i don't know and um what's going to be important for us is going to be what is happening to these underlying commodities we've been talking about the dollar we've been talking about gold and bitcoin so let's have a look at those so looking here oil um again on that headline we did see a notable tick higher so on the hourly chart here you can see where the volume came in and the move higher um we're moving back up so again crude oil on the futures market is currently going back up um what we have to keep in mind is that who was left to buy oil um so again uh supply and demand that's how the market works there's buyers there's sellers and for every buyer there has to be a seller so if we look over here at zw which is the wheat futures the reason why this chart has no trading in these last two days here is because we had to limit up um we had to limit up which means there's no more trading available limit up limit up and now the limit's gone so at some point the pressure got released on wheat and oops let me just get back to here the reason why that matters is because uh a 90 degree angle by definition is not sustainable why nothing can go straight up forever not even your ego so again looking here we go straight up we have these limits up which are the telltale sign that people are trapped they're trying to get out which means they're trying to get out at any cost now we see that reaction here and starting to come back down so at some point uh crude will come out is that going to be today i don't know is it going to be tomorrow i don't know is it going to be next week next month i don't know but at some point the rate of ascent is no longer going to be the nike swoosh it's going to do one of three things it's either going to keep going up at this angle of ascent which is basically 90 it's going to start flattening out or it's going to start going down what's really important to remember too is that if you think back to 2020 when oil went negative that's right it went negative it went down here to negative 40.
why well because it trades it traded at an extreme so the market can remain irrational sorry irrational longer than you can remain solvent and back in 2020 we pretty much had the exact opposite of what we see now so when we were at negative oil negative 40 bucks a barrel everyone's like oh my god oil's never gonna recover it's gonna go to negative a thousand it didn't why because there's intrinsic value and at the end of the day again i don't i can't predict the future what i can predict is that when the charts tell us that we've we've topped out we've talked out so as of right now we know that we're hitting an extreme how long will that extreme last we don't know so that's what that's what i'll start off with here today we will get feedback though and what matters for us is that relative low at roughly 420.
um next thing to look at here is just going to be other risk assets so let's look at dxy first to get a gauge here it's at 98.9 it's down by about a quarter percent on the day so the reason why this matters is because we're now seeing that the dollar is actually starting to ease a little bit remembering that everything priced in us dollars like gold like stocks like bitcoin um that is all going to get a little bit of a lift if the dollar is down so on the daily chart we're down just a little bit this looks a lot like recruit as well because there is that artificial demand for dollars when people are liquidating assets in other countries and they are priced in u.s dollars so sell your stocks again sell your russian stocks get us dollars sell your russian oil get us dollars that's what's happening so whether or not we go back to green on the day is likely also going to add pressure to the major stocks um meaning sp y and qq and then as we look forward to other risk assets that are interesting to me um notably bitcoin and ethereum the reason why i'm putting these out is because um joe biden yesterday said that um they're potentially going to be adding in some uh some sanctions and to regulate crypto well what did it do it went up what does that mean well again markets generally bottom on bad news so again i don't know if this is a bottom for bitcoin it appears like it might be again keyword being might but uh the negative bad news that everyone was scared about regulation from the government it didn't hurt it not quite yet and when we look at ethereum um again ethereum right now is up by about 3.5 percent here back above 2500 um again it's trying to catch a bid so are stocks gonna do the same thing i don't know um what i do know is that when we look at the uh the weekly charts and monthly charts we have the clearly defined levels so again trying to wrap this all up with a little bow to make sure it understands everyone understands here um the the three things that i will be watching to know whether or not stocks are ready to start ready sorry ready to stop going down ready to start going sideways and then potentially ready to start going up are gonna be the three things i just mentioned so crude the dollar and then gold and wheat sorry those three things so the three commodity commodities i would say would be uh crude oil uh gold and then uh i forgot the last one was a total brain fart um gold here so if these ones start leveling off um that is going to be potentially what we want to see for the market to go back up and the reason why i'm pointing this out is because we know that we know the areas um the areas that matter for us are going to be the ones on the monthly chart on the monthly chart we've got three levels here so again just looking visually across here well again we're back below here so if we can't reclaim the low at about 420.7 we're probably going back down to test 410.
if we can get back about 421 the next natural spot for me would be the open of the month at roughly 4 35. but before that we have our quarterly base that we're forming here so again just going back to our quarterly chart this is where we are right now this is a three month candle and what we pointed out on the weekend deep dive is that we're uh we're looking for a snapback between now and end of the month it's currently march 8th um we have the cpi print coming out on thursday we've got the eu leader summit on thursday as well and then uh next wednesday we have the fomc so um let me see my camera's actually not all blurry here so what that means for me is that um we know the catalysts which could potentially move the market up or move the market down what we don't know is so again there's the news there's the reaction to the news so more important than what the news is it's the reaction so now that we know what the key things to look at for today are i encourage you to be mindful of the levels be mindful of whether or not we're getting early feedback but then remembering that we don't know whether the price action is confirmed until the candle closes so for a daily chart that means closing out at four o'clock for a weekly chart that means waiting all the way till friday so if you're looking in uh using your and your ta or your technicals based on a weekly chart or a monthly chart or a daily chart you have to wait for that period to close out to get the confirmation so with that said um i wish you guys all the best of luck today and again joe biden will be speaking at 10 45 and uh if you want to see my beer thesis for the year again encourage you to go back and watch the bear market of 2022 if you're looking for the bowl potential that's what we later in this last weekend thank you for watching and we'll see you guys tomorrow thank you
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