Mohamed El-Erian on tax reform's potential impact on economic growth

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세제개편은 디레귤레이션·인프라 투자·기술 습득 정책과 묶여야 성장률과 잠재성장률을 높일 수 있다는 결론. 세제개편과 성장: 세제개편이 패키지로 추진되면 성장에 매우 긍정적이며, 정책이 지속적으로 나오고 행정부와 의회가 실행해야 한다고 주장. 정책 전환: 오랜 기간 중앙은행 완화(통화정책) 중심에서 재정정책으로 무게가 이동하는 점을 강조. 연준: 시장이 연준 의장 후보(존 테일러 거론)에 과도하게 반응한다고 봄. 향후 6~9개월간 대차대조표 축소와 금리 정책은 이미 정해져 있어 매파·비둘기파 논쟁에 집중할 필요가 줄어든다고 설명. 부의장 공석도 중요 과제로 언급. ECB: 내일 회의에서 채권매입 축소 발표가 예상되며, 월 600억 유로에서 300억 유로로 절반 감축이 시장 기대. 금리 변경은 없을 것으로 봄. 회복 속도가 미국보다 늦고 19개국 정책 조율 문제가 있어 실행 리스크가 큼. 실수 시 금리·달러·시장에 큰 충격 가능. 복수 중앙은행 리스크: 연준·ECB·일본은행·중국인민은행이 동시에 정상화에 나설 경우가 핵심 불확실성. 미국 연준 대차대조표 4.5조 달러 축소와 ECB 축소가 겹치는 상황이 우려 요인. 투자 전략: 사상 최고가 부근의 시장에서 신중(Be more cautious)할 것을 권고. 시장 노출을 분산하고 유동성을 높게 유지하라고 조언. 다만 조정 시 매수하는 패턴이 강하게 형성돼 있다고 언급.

다듬은 글

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01. now the president had lunch yesterday with the Senate Republicans he's trying to rally support for this tax overhaul joining me right now is Mohamed el-erian he is a Leon's chief economic adviser and Mohamed so it's a pleasure to see you thank you very much how important is tax reform getting done for the markets very important and very important that it be done as part of a package that includes deregulation infrastructure spending and also some focus on skill acquisition we need all that not only to boost actual growth but also to boost potential growth so it's very important do you think that it will move growth I think that if done in a package it will have a very positive impact on growth but it's important that the measures keep on going out that this is part of a very broad pro-growth program and that the administration and Congress can get things done so for the first time in a long time we're looking at fiscal policy versus what has been dominated by a monetary policy wherever you had the central banks of the world easing so long we've got an ECB meeting tomorrow and we got the US Federal Reserve some uncertainty there the president asked Senate Republicans yesterday who do you want to see in charge of the Fed and apparently we're being told that the majority was unanimous that they said John Taylor what would John Taylor what would a John Taylor Federal Reserve look like so it would be it would be a Federal Reserve with a very strong economist at its head and it's going to be really important to get the White vice chair as well because later because Stan Fischer has stepped down importantly I don't think that the market is correct and reacting the way it has reacted to various indication of Fed chair for simple reason that Fed policy when it comes to reduction of balance sheet and interest rate is pretty set for this next six to nine months beyond that yes but we've seen too much emphasis I think on hawkish versus dovish I think I think that the Fed is embarked on it's beautiful normalization more important is this handoff to other growth policies going back to tax reform to deregulation to infrastructure that's critical what about the ECB what do you expect the end of the ECB meeting tomorrow so if the markets were to worry about one central bank will be the ECB okay the ECB faces a very difficult situation the recovery is not as advanced as it is in the US it's trying to make policies for nineteen countries that are very different it has its own transition coming up in its leadership so don't underestimate the challenge facing the ECB tomorrow I suspect we're going to get an announcement of a gradual reduction in its purchase and they will try to make it conditional but if they make a mistake that is going to have a huge impact on our yields on the dollar and on markets is that expected in markets right now that they're gonna be gradually take it down at this point yes I think what the market expects is that they will reduce the pace of purchases by about half from 60 million to 30 million a month and that they won't do anything on interest rates and that's critical that's what the market expects and I suspect that's what the ECB will deliver so what's the risk here you got the you know usually if the ECB makers to the stake then you've got the risk of the Federal Reserve winding and it's four and a half trillion dollar balance sheet yeah these two things happening together yeah and at a time when the markets are at record highs so Maria that speaks to a fundamental issue the market has understood that one central bank can normalize in an orderly fashion what the market doesn't know is what happens if more than one central bank and remember we have potentially four central bank's the Fed the ECB the Bank of Japan in the People's Bank of China so what the marketplace is going to have to figure out is can we have more than one central bank normalize at the same time right and that's gonna be absolutely critical what do you want to do as far as allocating capital right now so I think you've got to be more Baba what do I mean by that is appreciate that we on a wonderful journey that the market has delivered great returns and widely sold but that we have run ahead of the policy implementation so if you continue on this journey remain highly liquid please make sure that you diversified in terms of market exposure and yes continue to buy the dip because I think the conditioning of the market has been so strong that we will continue to fade any correction fade correction yeah the market has been conditioned to believe that any dip is a buying opportunity right because guess what it has to be profitable so it takes a major shock to shake that conditioning well how it's great to see you thank you thank you so much for weighing in this morning by del re and joining us there come