저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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비트코인 반감기 이후 과거 사이클 패턴(3·6·12·18개월 후 수익률)을 분석하고, 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인으로 기관 자금 유입이 커져 2024~2025년 대상승장이 올 수 있다고 주장. 과거 평균을 적용하면 2025년 10월 무렵 최대 50만 달러 이상, 극단적으로 114만 달러까지 제시. 비트코인이 금을 대체하고 달러 가치하락 우려 속 하드에셋 기능을 가질 수 있다고 봄. 가상자산 정책이 2024 대선 표심에 영향을 줄 수 있다는 견해도 언급. 본인은 금융 조언이 아니라고 단서를 붙임.
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so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having three months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first three months but then within six months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation Cycles in January just days before the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds billionaire investor chanth palahia shared a highly optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in 2024 he predicted the significant impact these new products would have on the leading cryptocurrency by market cap in the year's first episode of the popular all-in podcast Chan math made four key predictions about Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ETFs he forecasted that 2024 would be the most important year for Bitcoin since its launch in 2009 due to the anticipated significant increase in Institutional Investor allocation driven by the ETFs additionally he believed Bitcoin would cross the chasm to become a mainstream asset once again and foresaw a time when even Boomers who have been strongly opposed to it would easily Buy and Hold the crypto asset his final prediction was that Bitcoin would become a part of the traditional Financial lexicon by the end of 2024 since the ETFs approval they have broken records that even chath might not have envisioned according to recent reports us spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 855,000 Bitcoin while Global ETFs hold over a million amounting to over $67 billion at current prices this development underscores kth's prediction about increased institutional investment and mainstream adoption the surge in Bitcoin ETFs highlights the growing acceptance and integration of Bitcoin into the financial mainstream setting the stage for a transformative year in 2024 in the latest episode of the Allin podcast chath highlights the importance of the ETFs and the having event predicting a huge Bull Run for Bitcoin in the coming months he notes that in previous Cycles bitcoin's price remained in the same range within 3 to 6 months after having events but after the sixth month prices skyrocketed Chan math expects a similar sequence of events in 2024 and 2025 both in terms of prices and increased adoption reinforcing his earlier predictions about bitcoin's potential trajectory stop you don't have time don't miss out this 2025 Bull Run educate yourself first ahead of the crowd we have created the ultimate step-by-step crypto cheat guide that will guide you this bull run unlock the secrets of crypto and make smarter Investments today now by clicking on the link below to get your exclusive copy just under $10 I thought it would be good to talk about crypto for a couple of reasons one is because we just had the having at the end of April when did that happen the having is where just for folks that don't know the way that Bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and and money and when you solve it you get rewarded with some number of Bitcoin and roughly every four years that reward gets cut in half it's called a having this week I saw somebody who reminded me all of this and I just want to give this guy a proper shout out so his name is Wes kasaris and Wes in Silicon Valley would say really was Agent Zero of Bitcoin he was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me I remember he reminded me of the story actually we were at orren hummus and he's like he's Argentinian he's a great so I'm gonna try to copy he's like you not to buy the Bitcoin so I heard the story I fell in love with it I remember I called my family office I'm like buy me a million of these things and he was like or a million dollars worth and he was like are you crazy and I was like no this just a little appetizer we'll get to the main main course anyways he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and prosti Bitcoin and I want to thank him because he really put me on to this but he mentioned something to me when I saw him a couple days ago which is you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a having and so I was really curious and so I had a guy on my team Quinton put this together so Nick let me just let's go to the first page so why is this interesting so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and rough what also happens in the first 3 months but then within 6 months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x after the second having it returned almost 28x and after this third having it returned almost an adex which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time if you go to the next page and so if you if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these having Cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation obviously the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2020 four which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of Central Key moment right and so if you apply the averages and again these are just averages they're by no means predictions okay so I just want to qualify that these are not Financial advice it's not Financial advice these are just guesses we took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few Cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to oh so you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle two and three and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation kth's analysis suggests that Bitcoin could exceed $500,000 per coin by October 2025 which is 18 months post having according to his chart the target based on the last having cycle is $97,400 for even higher prices with Bitcoin possibly reaching a staggering $1.14 million if the average of Cycles 2 and 3 is applied historically Bitcoin increased 45.
52x 18 months after the first having 27.9 2x after the second and 7.8x after the third even if this cycle is more subdued like the 2021 cycle experts including chath still expect Bitcoin prices to rise significantly before the cycle ends in 2025 this optimism is not solely based Bas on price movements but also on increased Bitcoin adoption particularly among institutions which CH maath believes will have a substantial impact on bitcoin prices Chan maath is particularly excited about how this increased institutional adoption could drive bitcoin's value higher for more detailed insights including clips from the analysis watch the video when I talked to Wes about this how he explained it which I which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at Bitcoin incredibly even if they support it the US may be one of those but there's an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they will look at Bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like BTC and I think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets and I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportunities so I just thought that this was a interesting thing that he that he here's our disclaimer interesting thing that he on I thought I'd share that with you I'll publish this on Twitter but that's your crypto corner for the year folks I think it's really interesting how the crypto Community is getting organized into a basically a Lobby to advocate for its interest because they the biggest Lobby in America did you know that yeah they've been so targeted over the last few years because gendler and Warren have been on a crusade to basically make crypto illegal or drive it offshore well every action has a equal and opposite reaction and now the crypto people have basically had a political Awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system yeah just as a matter of Defense self-defense you know back to the young people we talked about in the previous story I think the reason they're attracted to crypto is because it doesn't have government control and since if you don't trust the government and you see the government over and over and over again cover things up or the grift or make decisions that are not in your generation's best interest why wouldn't you opt out of their financial system and you know what there's a lot of them and have they're getting organized to your points a I think we're going to have a crypto framework and it's worth probably five points in this election what do you think saaks how many points is being the pro crypto candidate worth in this election one two three points of votes Four Points it's it's got to be if young people show up it'll be it'll be it could be 500 basis points I mean young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about correct but there's 50 million Americans that own crypto 50 5 Z okay so if 10% of them are like let's say that's their single that's 5 million votes no no no there's a there is a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're talking about a structural part of their wealth creation right so for example like you know Biden President Biden talked about giving people a head start by eliminating their debt that's a narrow issue and the reason it's a narrow issue there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt and it creates a lot of Hales and Have Nots and there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief Etc you end up touching four or five million people maximum but if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge Against The Establishment and the traditional Financial system and you are threatening to take that wealth away yeah I could see how 80% of those folks show up to The Ballot Box and say all right which one of you will just leave me alone and if the answer is President Trump then they're all going to vote for president Trump in other news Kathy Woods Ark invest has withdrawn from the spot ethereum ETF race according to updated S1 filings shared by Bloomberg ETF analysts on Twitter arcs partner 21 shares is now the sole name listed as the prospective issuer of the 21 shares core ethereum ETF explaining this unexpected move Arc stated Arc remains proud to be part of the select group of Bitcoin ETF filings approved by the SEC in January we remain fully committed to the arc 21 shares Bitcoin ETF as we believe Bitcoin is a public look good that everyone should be able to access at a low cost as for ethereum Arc believes in its transformative potential and the long-term value of the ethereum blockchain but at this time Arc will not be moving forward with an ethereum ETF we will continue evaluating efficient ways to provide our investors with exposure to this Innovative technology in a way that unlocks its full benefits what do you think is the reason behind this sudden development please share your thoughts and comments on ctha analysis and bitcoin price prediction in the comments section
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