저자: Kevin · 외국인
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6월 12일 CPI와 FOMC가 같은 날 발표되어 변동성이 클 전망. CPI 전월비 근원지표가 0.3% 이하면 강세, 0.4%면 약세 가능성. 고용지표는 전일제 감소 등 약화 신호. 연준이 금리인하를 2회 이상 가격에 반영하면 상승, 동결·인하 축소 시 급락 가능. 모멘텀 둔화로 약세 헤지 포지션을 구축 중이며, 30일 보유 스윙 숏 2개와 롱 1개를 고려 중이라고 함. 엔비디아 등 액면분할 후 약세 경향 언급.
다듬은 글
it's time to prepare for the Federal Reserve meeting which is a special day this June 12th will be very special because not only are you going to get the CPI inflation report at 5:30 in the morning Pacific time 8:30 Eastern but you're also going to get the FED on the same exact day it's going to lead to a lot of volatility in markets and here's what to expect first you're looking for CPI to come in month over month at just 0.1% with headline pretty good core3 which is actually about.
28 right now so really as long as we get something in line with expectations on CPI we should have a positive fed day which should be bullish for markets you just don't want CPI to come in with a 04 on that month over month because it's probably really going to adjust what's going on at the FED but the FED is really concerned about two big things one of those is potentially taking a gun to the mark okay I mean taking uh taking too big of a hammer to the market to try to quell inflation when the reality is we're starting to see some nastiness in the actual weeds of the jobs data let's be real jobs data that came out Friday the headline looked fantastic it's like oh look another blowout report but then you go into the details and you're like wait a minute part-time workers up 286,000 full-time workers down 625,000 now that's a wild number because that means for every two full-time workers that are leaving the industry one come back as a part-time worker okay I wasn't expecting the balloon there but yay let's celebrate yay one person back as a part-time worker but two people left yeah we don't want to talk about that that that like that's a problem and the Federal Reserve looks past the headline BS the political BS and they look and go oh yeah we've got real weakening here and remember the sectors that are primarily growing are government and healthc Care those are late cycle not great fed knows that and frankly if we send a signal to the market that's going to send yields up in the bond market we might induce another bank failure I mean consider what happened with the FDIC report we saw failed banks in increase uh their uh risky asset exposure by 15 billion or or the number of assets that are exposed to risky Banks increased by 15 billion this is a good chunk we had a pretty big increase in the number of not just risky Banks but also the assets that are exposed to risk uh by basically being level four level five risk Banks which is bad those are the worst levels at the FDIC so the Federal Reserve really has to balance this okay so GDP supposedly is is over 3% which is great we're booming as long as inflation is relatively stable call it you know.
28 on that month over month we really got to start talking about rate Cuts that's a big deal and so I think the Federal Reserve really wants to come out this week and go just give us an inline inflation report and then can we start pricing in at least two rate cuts the market right now is is pricing in uh 1.5 rate cuts for the year and that would be in December and only8 rate Cuts before or by November so the reality is you might get one cut November maybe one cut December or just one cut December that's what the Market's pricing in now so you are going to see this my guess you are going to see this go the Dot Plot go from three rate cuts which is what we had the last time you're going to see that go down to two to uh so that would be very normal so this 4.6 here on the fed's funds rate I think will probably go to 4.8 now if they keep it stable at 4.6 the Market's going to Skyrocket and moon if uh and and those are your trades right so set this up for a moment you're going to trade pre-market on CPI obviously I'll be streaming live at the meet Kevin uh uh Market Channel make sure you subscribe to that one I'm live every day at 5:25 in the morning uh so we'll be covering that I'll go live at like 525 520 is maybe a little early for CPI we'll cover CPI if you get a month-over-month Core read that's above 35 that ends up rounding up to 04 bad bad news it's going to get put a bearish taste on everybody's mouth for the fomc that day okay that's your trade if you get anything in line or lower bullish so like.
28.3 or lower on the core month over month bullish Moon okay good thing then you might have some patience though until the FED meeting because you'll need the FED to reiterate it but they will they will probably go down to two rate Cuts but that's not actually going to be bearish now if that fed funds number goes because that's already priced in right this being 4.8 is already priced in now if that numberers 46 and they keep it stable at three rate cuts for the year Moon if that number goes to 5.25 and they price in zero rate cuts for the year tank okay so that's your play that's really what you got to pay attention to do we really care about the Federal Reserve GDP projections no because we really already have those at the Atlanta fed GDP and it's a they're good numbers do we care about their unemployment trajectories yes but do we really think they're going to change these much no because these unemployment numbers are basically a reference to the highlevel payrolls and establishment uh and household reports which are quite frankly skewed by immigration anyway now is it possible that because we're now quote unquote closing the Border we're going to have uh uh a a smaller uh set of job gains because immigrants uh even undocumented immigrants can be counted in some of these BLS labor reports they should just call them the BS labor reports but whatever yes they can be uh and is there a potential that closing the Border could actually lead to a weakening in the jobs Market yes but when well it'll take a few months uh at least and that's you know depending on how much confidence you have that the border is actually going to somehow magically seal up but anyway so I don't know that there's a massive near-term Catalyst that says oh yeah this is the month where the jobs data turns but if the jobs data rolls over like it kind of already has been in the underlying the fed's going to start cutting more rapidly what are the odds of a surprise cut on on uh Wednesday zero what are the odds of a coupon expiring Wednesday 100% in fact we just added one it's coupon code dotplot it's honestly it's a really special day because when do you have the fed and CPI on the same day I don't think that's ever happened in my career where they basically have to base their meeting on CPI data that cames comes out that morning that's crazy or base their their sort of you know fomc projections that's kooky and crazy so that's going to be wild now there are a few plays that I'm making and I I these aren't guarantees they're Hedges but they're are swing trades I'm talking about them a lot in the stocks and sitech group and just in the course member live streams what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to place uh maybe two short positions and maybe I'll go for one call position a little later this week and so my goal is to be a little bit more like long portfolio long Diversified train America but I want to set up a few swing trades that I think are going to give me an asymmetric Victory if we have a riskof movement which would be like CPI is a little warm the fed's a little ambivalent people are a little uncertain the sell and may go away shows up in June now that momentum's gone and so I want to set up a couple shorts and maybe a long as a swing trade and the goal is to hold those depending obviously on what happens with data on Wednesday that could flip everything but my goal is to hold those for about 30 days and I think they're going to play out well for me now obviously no guarantees not personalized advice but really what I'm trying to do is hedge myself for somewhat of a bleed over the next 30 days as what we get this week just turns into more uncertainty rather than Clarity uh I I I think that's a lot of what we get is just like okay that didn't add much Clarity so we'll see this is just a thesis I have uh obviously go to me kevin.com coupon code.
plot uh we'll have it expire Wednesday and if you have questions email us at staff kevin.com so um as far as these these uh these swings I always want people to remember like my long portfolio the goal is Diversified 20 30ish stocks you go long train America that's that's my Mo but in a trading portfolio you could different things and Something's Happened in trading recently that you should be aware of we have gone from a period of momentum which is May May m momentum that's just a coincidence uh so we've gone from a period of momentum where you could go long a stock when the trend was was up and it just kept going you could go short a stock and it just kept going uh when when the trend was down momentum somewhat came with Roy and kitty but it also sort of left with Roar and kitty we've seen momentum substantially slow down we're getting more consolidation patterns and that's a precursor to a downtrend so I'm about a 4 and a half on the bull bear scale right now 10 Ultra bull one is uh Ultra bear I'm about a 4 and a half right now so I'm building up some more Hedges you know I'm not like all in I'm not going margin here I'm not going YOLO or whatever and I'm staying away from the short-term day trade momentum which worked really well in May made a lot of money in may obviously there was some give back over the last week as we transition to a consolidation period but now my concern is we go from momentum to consolidation to bearishness at least for a brief period of time so from a trading point of view we might get get some uncertainty now again if we get a glorious CPI report Wednesday morning and a bullish fed okay well maybe then you don't need your Hedges right then maybe you just stick with the call uh play uh that I'm probably going to be setting up uh within the next 48 hours so I'm going to have a massive call play that gets set up within the next 48 hours and I think it's worth paying attention to so stay tuned buckle up for that that'll be really interesting so uh anyway yeah these are my thoughts so well let me see what else there is so we talked fed we talked CPI projections we talked uh let's see here we've got Catalyst Apple could be by the rumors sell the news today Nvidia posts spit usually by the way post spit you're bearish so you've had quite a few stocks that have gone bearish post split Heisenberg had an interesting post on this on uh on X Tesla in the 6 days after the split -2% Apple uh 3 days after the split plus 10 following 3 days- 20% Amazon 6 days after the split - 21% Google Plus 3% after the split next four days minus 10% and then Microsoft uh uh 10% decline after the split so you can get sort of like a near-term buff here on something like an Nvidia but uh historically splits are usually a little bit of a toppy uh moment so that'll be very interesting as well so uh yeah that's okay now we've covered fed splits inflation jobs trade versus long-term thesis uh I'll have a real estate video coming out stay tuned for that uh a lot of really great insights from traveling this weekend along with house hack uh uh updates still hiring by the way we really it'd be really cool to actually have some like girl applicants because it's like 90% or dudes actually lately it's been like 100% or dudes which is fine I'm just saying like if you're a girl don't be afraid uh but we're looking for bookkeeping help um legal help so like if you're a legal intern or a paralegal or whatever uh software engineer if you just want to be an intern whether you have experience or you don't obviously if you don't have any experience you want to learn intern you know that's going to be a lot lower pay than what what somebody with experience would would uh um be able to earn which makes sense it's totally fair but uh you know my goal is always to take people from intern train them and and then and then boost you to uh uh to great pay that's the goal so anyway those are my thoughts thank you so much for watching email us at jobs meetkevin.com if you're interested make sure to send a 60-second video of your pitch thanks so much goodbye and check out the coupon code at meetkevin.com
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