저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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첫째 결론: 시장은 은행 위기와 고금리 지속이라는 이중 리스크를 반영 중이며, 모비우스는 인도 비중 유지·기술 하드웨어 선호 입장. [글로벌 금융 불안] 2023년 3월 은행 불안으로 예금 안전성에 대한 의구심이 커져 금과 비트코인이 동반 상승. 미국·스위스 정부의 은행 지원은 현재까지 성공적이나 확실치 않다고 평가. 미국 실리콘밸리 은행 파산 이후 연준이 빠르게 대응. 장기채를 보유한 은행들은 금리 상승으로 평가손실 위험. [금리·인플레이션] 미국 인플레이션 5~7% 수준으로 목표치 2%와 거리가 멀어 연준의 금리 인상이 필요하다고 봄. 금리 인상과 은행 자산 훼손 사이에서 중앙은행이 딜레마에 빠져 있음. 시장은 은행 시스템 붕괴 가능성과 고금리 지속을 반영 중. [신흥국·중국] 신흥시장 지수는 중국 비중(약 30%)에 끌려 부진. 중국 주식시장은 국내 개인투자자 신뢰 부족으로 약세. 중국 정부의 외국인 투자 유치 노력에도 효과 제한적. 모비우스 본인은 중국 자금 인출 문제가 해결되었다고 언급. [인도] 인도 시장은 고점 대비 약 20% 하락, 중국은 약 45% 하락(달러 기준). 모비우스는 인도 비중을 유지하며 향후 늘릴 계획이라고 발언, 인도 포트폴리오 비중은 지수보다 높다고 함. 대만 다음으로 큰 비중. 대만→인도 수출 증가로 반도체 사업이 인도로 이동할 것이라 전망. 인도 기술 기업 중 하드웨어·반도체 분야에 관심 확대. 인도 주식은 장기적으로 잠재력이 크며 단기 10~20% 조정은 매수 기회로 봄. 다만 인도 주식은 저평가가 아니라 고평가 상태라고 인정. [섹터·전략] 가격결정력(price maker) 기업 선호, 인도 내 일부 기업이 이에 해당. 은행주는 포트폴리오에서 제외. 금은 실물로 5~10% 이내 보유 권장하나 이익을 내지 않아 투자 수익성은 낮다고 봄. ESG+C(문화)를 리스크 관리 도구로 중시하며 ESG 열풍은 쇼 성격이 강했다고 평가. 가치주 vs 성장주는 본질이 아니라 가격결정력이 핵심이라 주장. [출연자 전망] 장기적으로 인도 시장은 계속 상승할 것이며 조정은 1년 내 짧게 끝난다고 낙관.
다듬은 글
Mia joins us now always a pleasure to interact with him understand from him that what his view of the world is and really get inside insights on where is he traveling and how is he traveling all right Mark which part of the world are you joining us from I'm now in Singapore I just got back from Vietnam Thailand and Malaysia so I've had a real tour of Southeast Asia so how's the world looking like Mark you know suddenly we are talking about challenges in America big problems in Europe up and a repeat of 2008 in your understanding 202 2008 what is a similarity my feeling is that there's a there's a great deal of confusion right now of course because what you have is a situation where people are thinking maybe my money in the bank is not safe um and then you have on the other side uh the government in the US and now in other countries trying to prop up the banks uh and that uh is a big question mark whether this is going to be successful so far it's been successful in the US and of course in Switzerland it happened but people are really beginning to question the safety of banks so that's the reason why you've seen gold go up and you've seen Bitcoin go up because they people feel that maybe uh these two uh areas would be safe from any problems that the banks have or any problems that you see in the governments so that's a very very significant change that's happened uh with a great deal of uncertainty of course in this market the emery markets have underperformed the US market because people of course are looking at China and China of course is the biggest component of the uh Market the Emerging Markets index uh but if you look at what's happened in Taiwan and Korea you'll see that those two markets doing quite well uh India has come down a little bit but the good news for India is that uh exports from Taiwan to India are going up which is a very significant change because that means that more and more semiconductor business is going to be flowing into India and I think as I mentioned before this is going to be very pos positive for India U suddenly a lot of asset classes have become disjointed crude is down copper is up gold is up and Bitcoin is giving gold some company why is that this time around in this financial riskof uh moment we have seen a very disjointed move in all Financial assets yes that's right it's very disjointed but it doesn't make a lot of sense because if you're afraid of your deposit in the bank where do you go uh you go into stocks not really because uh people feel that maybe the stock market will do not do well if the inflation numbers go up and the FED becomes more aggressive on interest rate incre increases so if you look around okay what's the place to go it's gold and maybe Bitcoin because they feel Bitcoin may not be affected by these other factors Mark Indian markets are down 20% from the high in dollar terms Chinese markets are down 45% from the dollar term in dollar terms obviously that makes China much more attractive and that narrative I guess has been at play in last couple of months do you think this Narrative of book profits out of India and move to China is real uh no I think what's happened is that you've seen some recovery in China because China now has opened up more the covid situation has pretty much been suppressed and now the Chinese government is saying look we welcome foreign investment and therefore they're you know trying to encourage more investment in China uh but it really has not worked very well because you can see the Chinese market has come down and the reason for that of course is that the biggest um market makers in China are the local people the local people who invest in the stock market if they're not confident or if they don't have the money uh to put into the market then the market will not do very well and of course that affects the Emerging Markets index because China is about 30% of the index Mark uh have you increased your allocation in this decline in India uh no we've kept it the same uh we're looking to increase as we go forward but right now we've kept it the same as we've had so we still have a very positive outlook for India I'm assuming that India is your top weighted market in terms of absolute percentage commitment well if you look at our waiting you'll see that it's much higher than the index because we feel more confident and we have uh uh most of the Assets Now in terms of China Taiwan is Taiwan you look at the biggest allocation is Taiwan and then India so at the end of the day we have great confidence in what's happening in taiwwan and as part of that what's going to happen in India as India becomes more semiconductor oriented as more and more manufacturing takes place in India Mark I recently came across the interview of yours on global media where you gone on record and you've said that look as in Chinese as an investor I'm worried about my money which is in China where I'm not allowed to withdraw the money is it true are you facing think that problem uh that was the problem but now it's been solved thanks uh thanks for the news uh people at the banks began to wake up and realize that it doesn't make sense to be holding up uh my money in China so I've been able to solve that thanks thank God Mark you had three stocks in India last time when interacted with you have you made it four are you planning to make it five or even six well I'd like to make it more and more and the thing that I'm looking at of course is the whole technology area and not necessarily the software but the hardware I believe that this is going to be very interesting going forward so I'm really interested in increasing that uh allocation in India through those channels why do you like technology in India because Indian technology sector is still exposed to the global macros the global macros are looking challenging Indian IT company get a land share of business from the bfsi space and that's where the global problem is are you not worried about it I no the reason why I'm not worried is that when you get down to it when companies are in trouble or when societies are in trouble when governments are in trouble they turn to technology to solve their problems and Technology often can solve their problems so the technology area is going to grow globally in any case but more importantly India's is going to be taking a bigger and bigger role in the semiconductor and Hardware uh area in the semiconductor technology area and the reason for that is that uh the problems with China and the US means that a lot of the manufacturing that has been taking place in China has to move away that's the reason why Taiwan manufacturers are looking to India as a place to manufacture and to keep up uh their services to their clients in America and Europe also for those who keep on pointing out this consistent fact again and again which is that Indian markets are great Indian economy is moving in the right direction but Indian stocks are not fairly priced but they're richly priced so if you're going if you're buying a gold at the price of gold you are unlikely to make great gains well if you look at the Indian market from a longer term perspective the potential is incredible I'm not too concerned about these short-term moves uh the market could go down 10 15% even 20% that really doesn't concern me in fact it could be an opportunity to buy more so uh it really depends on what stocks you're holding if you're holding stocks with very little debt with good return on Capital then you should do fine regardless of what happens to the market Mark so if you have to let's say construct the Market in a time space next one year where do you think markets are headed next 3 years where do you think markets are headed and next 5 years where do you think markets are headed and what do you like within India how would you decode it for us well uh as you know I'm a Perpetual Optimist I believe that markets will continue to go up uh there will be big Corrections uh the good news is that when there is a big correction or when there's a bare Market uh it's very shortlived it tends to last no more than a year and then that provides an incredible buying opportunity so it doesn't make sense to try to predict uh what's going to happen this year next year three years five years from now the best thing to do is to find the right stocks stick to those regardless of what happens buy more when the price goes down and you'll do very very well so I have to say this year next year five years the Indian market will continue to do well there'll be Corrections along the way of course but at the end of the day those who are in the Indian market in good stocks in socks with low debt they should do fine Mark we saw come back in value last year we saw come back in Commodities we saw come back in the non-g dominated stocks a tobacco company like like ITC and a uh Mining Company like coal India they made a comeback what led to this kind of an outperformance and you think this comeback in value stocks is here to stay uh well it's not a matter of necessarily value versus growth it's really a matter of uh the ability of companies to uh determine pricing in other words those who are able to fix prices uh to higher than inflation so uh we have to look at Price makers rather than price takers uh in India or anywhere in the world these are the companies that you want to to look at so at the end of the day uh it's not a matter of what the market is doing in general but what these companies are doing specifically uh and I believe there are many companies in India that are price makers in other words they're able to fix prices ahead of inflation and continue to do that going forward uh not many of them but they're enough to provide a great opportunity Mark do you think ESG investing uh and the compulsions which were there around e investing is that pass now and it is time to move on because two years ago 3 years ago Global Equity markets were giving disproportionate premium to ESG companies uh yeah I think the ESG uh the sustainability business uh became sort of popular everybody jumped on the W bandwagon uh uh many of them are just doing it for show but at the end of the day we believe in ESG plus c c meaning uh the culture of the company and the reason why we believe in ESG plus C is that it reduces risk if you have problems with the environment with your company if you have problems with the society around you if you have problems with the corporate governance and if you have problems with your own staff that's a big risk that we don't want to have so that's the reason for all the companies in which we invest we look at the ESG plus C components of course each company is different you can apply sort of a blanket measure but at the end of the day uh these are very very important risk control measures you think for next 3 years everyone should have a must have exposure to Gold I think it's very good to have some gold uh uh in physical form in case of real big emergencies uh I don't see gold as a great investment because it doesn't produce earnings uh it's static uh so that it's not really the kind of thing you would want to include more than five or 10% of your portfolio but it is important to have it in the case of a real breakdown I mean you must remember we've come very close recently to a complete breakdown of markets in every direction uh and of course when there's war and other Strife it's always good to have some gold particularly in physical form hopefully in coins so that you can carry it and use it as money Mark so I go back to my opening question once again because that currently is the mood point you are absolutely clear in your understanding that the US Financial system and the European Financial system is stable and this is not going to be a repeat like 2008 uh it's not stable I would say I wouldn't say it's stable but I would say the central banks around the world realize the the tremendous risk they face and they have to move very very quickly uh to support the major Banks banking systems and the major Banks uh that's the reason why the FED moved so quickly uh to do something about the uh technology bank that we saw failing in Silicon Valley um there's no question that uh we are in a very uh unstable situation because we have uh many of these Banks holding uh long-term bonds which have lost their value as a result of the increase in interest rates so uh in some ways the central banks are in a bind because on the one hand they want to raise interest rates to lower inflation on the other hand if they raise interest rates uh the assets of these Banks holding fixed income instruments uh are going to be in trouble and that's of course what happened the reason why uh this bank and Silicon Valley and others got into trouble so uh we're now in a very very shall I say iffy situation a very dangerous situation and we have to be very very careful as to what companies we hold and particularly Ultra ultra careful about Banks which is the reason why we don't hold any banks in our portfolio Mark couple of follow-up questions uh last couple of follow of questions actually over the years when you've invested in equities how much importance have you paid to macros and the FED commentary and the interest rates uh well what we do is we look at two major macro factors before going into a country number one will we be able to get our money out uh and therefore we look at things like foreign exchange reserves regulations on Foreign Exchange Etc Etc that's number one number two macro issue is Will the government take over our company uh this of course as you know happened in Venezuela when companies that shz came in and he said he was going to nationalize many of the companies therefore we got out so I would say these are the two big macro issues we have to deal with then we look individual stocks and every stock is going to be different if you're looking at let's say a stock in the hospital or Healthcare area you have to look to see if the government is going to impose any restrictions on how much these Banks uh these uh Health companies uh these uh companies can charge if they're going to be uh uh restricted by the government then it could be a problem the same thing with banks if the banks are going to be restricted by the government and how they can charge and how can they run their business then it's a big big problem so that's way the way we look at uh the macro issues in relationship to uh the market generally first of all it's a Mac big two big macro issues and then it gets down to the individual company just to wrap it up with one final question um Mark to your mind what exactly are financial markets pricing in are they pricing in a peak in the interest rate cycle very soon or they've already started pricing in some slow recession stroke or slow down in the second half of this year what do you think markets are pricing in what they're pricing in is number one uh a possible bank failure possible breakdown in the banking system although C banks have come to the rescue so far there's still a lot of doubt in the market as to whether uh the uh the governments and particularly the central banks are going to be successful that's number one number two the market is pricing in is a possibility of higher and higher interest rates uh there's no question that uh we're now standing at inflation in America at five six 7% regardless of what what measure you use using and that's far away from the target of 2% which means that the Central Bank the FED must to raise interest rates so these are the two things that the market is pricing in and uh it doesn't look very good uh from many perspective in that sense mmob is always a pleasure to have you n now thank you so very much for accommodating this interview request thank you
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