저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적은 가이던스를 보수적으로 잡은 '샌드백' 전략이지만 시장은 이를 무시하고 상승할 것이라 주장. 블랙웰 칩 수요는 공급을 크게 웃돌며 수요 과잉이 지속되고, 과열 이슈는 소음에 불과하다고 봄. 빅테크 AI 자본지출 증가로 기술 강세장과 산타 랠리를 기대. 다만 발언 후반부에서는 향후 자본지출 둔화나 과잉 투자로 하이퍼스케일러와 공급망 전반에서 분기 실적 손실이 나타날 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
but let's get to Dan IES now global head of Technology research at w wewish Securities as this Market digests this news Dan we are seeing a little pairing of those declines you were looking for a MC drop quarter could you call this that I think you print this press release off and frame it because look I mean what you're really seeing here this is a stock that's going to be green tomorrow I mean what they're putting up in terms of hopper in terms of overall growth it's exactly what the Bulls want and he'll continue to under promise I mean next quarter that could be a four in front of it in terms of ultimate Revenue this is just the beginning of the a revolution $4 trillion on its way sure and long term you may very well be right but are you not concerned about this plus or minus 2% that the company is reporting on Revenue simply because the market wants the company to beat and beat well every quarter yeah if you looked up sandbag special the dictionary you'd see this guidance and I think the Street's going to look through it I think this is a stock that probably will be up even on the conference call because if you look at everything that they did here in terms of the data center you could with hopper be talking $5 $7 8 billion per quarter that was something many thought could just be a few billion so as this all plays out and you start to look at numbers over the next call it 12 to 18 months The Godfather of AI Jensen and Nvidia continue to be on that Mount Rushmore it just shows it's starting with Nvidia now with second third and fourth derivatives playing out that's why it's 93010 p.m.
in this I party that goes to 4:00 a.m. has the time changed at all since you came out with that it was 9:00 p.m. and now we're at 9:30 got it got it so my other question to you since there's so much commentary on Blackwell and how production will ramp up in to fiscal 2026 with production shipments beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 which is the current quarter as Nvidia breakout Blackwell revenue or is this something that you and investors always need to reverse engineer out of the data center numbers yeah essentially investors reverse engineer but if you look in terms of some of the wording they're basically saying any of those heating issues don't worry about it and I think that's going to give more and more Comfort this is going to ramp significantly in terms of that and I think that continues to be the narrative because as we've spoken about from our Asia trip toand to supply is 15 to1 and there's only one game in town and he's wearing a black leather jacket his name is Jensen and I think that's why this continues to be in the early days of what I believe will be a $4 trillion dollar conversation you mentioned the overheating issues these Blackwell overheating issues which might demand a redesign of the servers hosting the chips the businesses that create the servers include Dell hulet Packard Enterprise and super micro do they wind up carrying the burden of having to rework everything yeah but ultimately I think that is something that's really just noise from all the checks we do that's why you look when you're at the top of the mountain you're always going to have somebody attempting to take shots at you but if you look at how Nvidia is playing out here there are really no production issues as this all accelerates and that's why when you hear from Jensen today I think investors are going to realize this A revolution is now about second third and fourth derivatives you look at what's going to play across software across the rest of semis across cyber security if you're a tech bull this paired with everything we've seen in the previous few weeks in terms of trump musk and everything else is really going to set up a Santa Claus rally so we are seeing Nvidia suggesting that Blackwell is going to surpass Supply for several quarters but that there are some Supply constraints currently you do those Channel checks Dan tell us the truth where have you spotted those bottlenecks or those prospective spots where Supply will be constrained everyone's waiting in line Nvidia and Jensen are the only party present and they are at velvet ropes you desire those next chips which is the problem that is the new gold or oil and that is what everyone wants yes but that's the client's perspective I'm I'm speaking of nvidia's ability to deliver things on the supply side ramping ramping ramping look it will take time to scale up just like any new chip or production but if you had expectations I would argue that compared to 3 months ago you would be feeling fairly well as you sat there and three of watching Netflix while Jensen Pilots the aircraft can Jensen increase the prices of those Blackwell chips even further than he has already done in terms of pricing power what do you anticipate happening in that regard and should consumers expect those chips to cost more they most certainly can but at the moment market share is the most important factor they will simply keep moving farther and farther out Additionally you now have $340 billion in a capital expenditures in your sites even when you consider what the hyperscalers are spending then you consider private Investments sovereigns and everything else it merely demonstrates we are in an unmatched once in a 40-year Tech Revolution because of this Jensen is the Mount Rushmore not Tano or karp you previously mentioned that there is a Velvet Rope and that there are many individuals in line to purchase these chips with hyperscalers at the head of the quw where do Sovereign buyers stand though if you include them in the mix are they allowed to cross the line in the center of the line are sovereigns oh my name's on the list they say you can't get in front of the people at the front big Tech is telling them the middle of the line is still occupied by sovereigns they will get in and behind them it's the rest of the fortune 2000 for this reason we will be discussing $4 trillion and $ trillion we are only at the beginning of this Tech boom before the show we discussed in The Green Room how crucial this particular stock is to a series of Trades that determine whether the stock market Rises or Falls it's difficult to identify a single business that dominated the worldly economy or financial markets over literally centuries there isn't one that in my opinion hasn't received any official support from a government even in 1990 that isn't as large as this one in comparison therefore it is crucial for those who trade tick by tick immediately following the earnings and call as well as for those who stand back and consider the big picture and to be honest this is where American exceptionalism lies this is the reason why the United States has outperformed for decades or longer it's the supremacy of Technology the weight of technology in our stock market and the existence of businesses like the mag 7 that will spend half a trillion dollars on R and D an2 months so to put that in perspective $52 billion was spent on the shayai p and science act this is many multiples of that it's just the scale of our Supremacy Nvidia is the Cornerstone of it so whether they disappointed or not to me it's the fact that we have this structural Advantage let me make one point about that that I think is really interesting that's the estimate for a half trillion dollars in capex and R and D over the next what did you say next year okay so if it comes in at $450 billion just think about that what happens to these stocks they're going to go down a lot and you know what I mean it wouldn't progressively take much because estimates are going up and just to sum up if you go back to Microsoft you'll see that they're a 19% customer of Nvidia we also discussed the increase in capital expenditures not long after they reported it didn't rise all that much as a result the step functions that were prevalent say three or 4 years ago are no longer present they also talked about being capacity constrained one of the reasons why they didn't have bigger revenues now their Cloud company is expanding 31% year-over-year which is excellent they're taking market share from AWS I just kind of feel like we're going to go from capacity constrain to capacity overbuilt and that sort of stuff in the not so distant future so when you're coming in and you're beating these numbers only by a hair and the stocks are still sticking around it shows you that investors still want the exposure however I believe it will eventually be one of those situations where you start to notice a few quarters of losses not only in the hypers but also in the picks and shovels
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