저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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엔비디아는 골드러시의 곡괭이·청바지 역할을 하는 플랫폼 기업으로, 연산 수요가 대형 빅테크와 후속 스타트업에 혜택을 주며 모멘텀이 강하다는 주장. 블랙웰 과열 이슈는 이미 해결됐고 2025년 1월 분기 매출 볼륨이 클 것이라 전망. 시장 변동성(VIX)은 15~22 박스권이며 S&P500 조정 가능성을 언급. 엔비디아는 141 돌파 확인 시 157 목표가 제시.
다듬은 글
the platform enablers were the ones that made the money during San Francisco's gold rush in the 1800s right the pics the shovels the pans and the pants were sold by them correct it is the birthplace of Levi Strauss today nvida is the analogy that is comparable let's return to the topic of NVA you should be smiling broadly since after all you own it do you think this is illogical or does it make perfect sense no I don't want to repeat myself but reaching $3 trillion on an intrinsic value basis is quite difficult however nvi GA would be the business to choose if you were creating the ideal momentum company from the ground up you have a compelling story a CEO who doesn't stray from it and they've set the stage so they can meet short-term goals additionally there is a market that adds to the mix considering that Nvidia is the leading pick and shovel provider I believe you are witnessing one of the greatest momentum plays in history the question then becomes what will we make with these picks and shovels will we discover gold furthermore the question seems ambiguous to me where can we find that gold will it be on the inside of a startup or a large AG company if you look at how these resources are being used in big Tech the economic value of large models is being utterly destroyed that in my opinion is excellent for all subsequent Ventures what am I trying to say here we were all completely enamored with chat GPT and GPT in general looking at the quality of llama and llama 2 these large corporations have essentially decided to make all these models very good very useful and very very free the value of that category is being economically destroyed and subsidized by the large amount of resources going there startups will benefit from that what will you subsequently construct on top of these nearly free tools is the question computational biology is a topic that I have been studying for some time in the footage you mentioned I believe I was discussing with ory the possibility of computing vast intricate environments using less data today it's a tremendously challenging Endeavor but soon you can practically characterize every possible molecule permutation in an a model that you can train you can comprehend protein folding if you combine that with a program like Alpha fold all of a sudden you can begin assembling instruments that in theory May provide you with much more accurate suggestions for certain substances that might truly treat illness a business that I founded with a few others is an alternative to it it's more in the realm of Material Science I tweeted about it there we've made some significant progress the main goal is to create Next Generation battery materials and if it works we have one possibility that may be quite revolutionary there are some encouraging indications but we don't get no some of these green Sprouts are present from my vantage point a large portion of nvis current revenue is wisely spent because it will go to the larger players including Tesla and big Tech with it they will subsequently develop some truly fundamental platform Technologies such as Dojo FSD or the entire Tesla platform that integrates cameras inference and training for all types of physical world interaction over the coming years all of that stuff whether it's llama two or something else will be released to the ecosystem for free or almost free that in my opinion will be a very significant event that will give rise to hundreds of new businesses doing incredibly creative and Innovative things the major breakthrough firm has not yet materialized the big players in my opinion are currently receiving the most of this kex but the startups that are launched within the next four or five years will benefit from all of their hard work according to this asterisk the information asteris story they are requesting that suppliers replace the server racks for Blackwell because they are overheating to what extent does that worry you I'm not particularly concerned about it you see this happened to NV approximately 5 months ago NB has a reputation for making fixes quickly and this specific Blackwell overheating problem has already been fixed the layout was altered thus Grace Blackwell might be an issue if we're discussing a possible new overheating problem however I can categorically state that Jensen is not the type of CEO that consistently makes the same error I don't think this issue will arise Jensen was able to resolve the prior issue in less than two months so if it is it is most likely not a significant one does the need for a delay affect the numbers about a month ago Jensen did tell CNBC that the desire for Blackwell was insane that isn't the issue in my opinion the timing doesn't seem to change at all I believe Blackwell is prepared to leave our tagline you have to own nvi into the Blackwell ramp remains true now that Blackwell has been corrected when Blackwell is ramping it will be the most prosperous time to possess him I believe the overheating problem we had with Blackwell has been resolved we anticipate significant volume in the January quarter and very little volume in the October quarter that's our perspective on Nadia you mentioned that there is a gap exactly here which is what we should be watching what can we learn from this Gap watching the gaps from last week is I believe our theme for the week on Wednesday we witnessed the overwhelmingly favorable response these gaps were left behind when the market opened with great strength we constantly keep an eye on the gaps since it would usually be a setback if the market the spdrs or any particular investment were to rapidly Retreat into them gaps May indicate whether the upward Advance is sustainable last week TPI in particular saw an almost 5% rally which was a really spectacular move with strong upward follow-through it has a strong chance of maintaining that margin but in order to maintain the breakout this week it must okay at least in the pre-market at the moment we're witnessing a great deal of excitement whether technology takes us in the correct route we have to wait and see right now I want to go somewhere else I intend to clear the charts once more I see why you enjoy doing this Katie it's a lot of fun now let's look at the VX chart overbought and oversold conditions will be examined from here and then from around here I think the overbought is the top line and the oversold is the bottom line what does that teach us what do these charts tell us the VX is quite fascinating there is now a fair L distinct trading range support at about 15 and resistance at about 22 to 23 enclosed that range we would suggest that the high volatility cycle that started in July is still in place within that range the market may be able to continue Rising if the 15 area which is the lower limit of that range were to be broken more forcefully naturally that would indicate that a cycle of decreasing volatility has resumed you would anticipate some consolidation if the VX was in an oversold State close to that support which would cause it to begin moving sideways before seeing an oversold bounce after that you could extrapolate that to the S and p500 with which it has an inverse relationship and anticipate a consolidation and decline in the S and P the only question is how dramatic that will be okay Katie I'd like to move on to another stock every Trader I speak with has the newest Dow component and frequently discusses it here we were practically CNBC NV naturally I'm referring to Nvidia here I'll display the chart right here the 100 day moving average may be seen right here the purplish line is this one the goldish line is the 200 day you can see an area of resistance right here what can you infer about this trade and this stock from that NV is exhibiting what is known as testing resistance on a 9% Sur last week the 141 level was convincingly cleared in our work a breakthrough is still seeking confirmation this week if Nvidia closes above that level on Friday the breakout will be confirmed as a bullish development the measured move price Target from that breakout would be roughly 157 this is more of an intermediate term goal albeat it may be a bit conservative in the long run we would wait for that confirmation for two reasons first we want to watch Nvidia this week because like anything else it has that Gap second based on our charts and indicators a short-term counter Trend signal is probably present today additionally there is now a respectable spread to support which is about 134 for nvida in order to feel more confident about the positive follow-through for NV we truly want to see that validation the original meaning and structure have been Main contained while any grammatical errors have been fixed
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