저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부 관세·경기침체 우려 속 JP모건 다이먼 경고(경기침체 가능성 50/50, 2025 S&P500 이익 성장 0%)와 모건스탠리의 변동성 경계론을 전달. 관세 예외 조치로 전자부품은 완화됐으나 평균 관세율은 약 2%→24%로 여전히 높음. 소비·기업투자 둔화 가능성, 미 국채 신뢰 훼손 우려와 금 선호 이동을 언급. 제목·설명란에 출연자 정보 없음.
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So we could see a significant decline in consumer spending. Uh inflation expectations have gone up. They know they know that's going to happen and businesses business investment in this type of environment. I would really expect it to decline. Um we would be lucky to skirt a recession and I I it should we I I would expect some indications in the hard hard data soon.
There's a loss of confidence in US economic policy and even perhaps the safety of Treasury securities which are the bedrock of and um the safest um asset on the planet. Hey, in this video I'm going to provide you a big bank warning from Jamie Diamond over at JP Morgan in his shareholder letter. I'm going to break that down for you.
We'll keep it short. We'll also look at a warning from Morgan Stanley and then I'm going to give you a breakdown of all of the tariff updates that you need to know about. First, as just sort of an introduction, mostly because I think it's kind of interesting. Kevin Hed comes out with an official position from the Trump administration and just minutes ago tells us there is zero chance of a recession in 2025.
Quote, no chance. So, um, the government just told us there's no recession, so I guess we're good to go. So, uh, party goes on. Uh, in honor of this, the volatility index today is down 17.76%, which I thought was quite patriotic and almost unironic. It was it was just perfect. And that's mostly because things really seem to have calmed down.
The fear indices have moved from the lowest levels of extreme fear to extreme fear, but not as extreme of extreme fear, which is nice. For example, on the uh greed and fear index, we've moved from a four to a 22. So, we're still in the extreme fear category, but we're almost out of it, which is leading a lot of folks to say, "Hey, maybe the market bottom is in." Well, this is where I think what we should do is take a look at what JP Morgan has to say.
So, the first thing that JP Morgan argues in their earnings call is that it's way too soon to see in consumer data if we're actually going to go into a recession or not. And whether we do or don't, JP Morgan is positioned for a recession or not. Okay, I'm bottomlining a lot of research for you and a lot of the earnings call for you to keep this simple for you.
Jamie Diamond says we have a 50/50 chance of a recession. And so, yes, the odds of recession are substantially higher today than ever in the past. Uh, and while S&P 500's the the earnings for the S&P 500 are estimated to be at about 5% this year, he believes that we're probably going to be closer to -5 to 0%.
So, he sees 0% in other words, no growth in 2025 as a baseline. And I think this is really interesting because with course members this morning we were analyzing some of the forecasts for earnings for example for Nvidia along with many other companies and we've seen a lot of earnings revisions come in and they've come in pretty harsh to where the earnings revisions have really slapped the growth estimates for some of these companies pretty hard.
And now that lets us update our valuation models a little bit combining what we think is going to happen with you know sort of what the Wall Street consensus is. And like that's what I like to do. What's Wall Street consensus? And then do I believe that's low or high? And then I could sort of project what I think a fundamental value for a stock is from there.
This is obviously very different from oh, Weeble stock is going up. Let's buy it cuz it's going to go to the moon. Um, it might be going to the moon right now probably because only 2% of its shares are outstanding, which is really low. Newsmax was 6% of its shares outstanding and it skyrocketed. and then subsequently just like any momentum stock crashed.
So I expect the same to happen at Weeble. Although I will say before their preferred share adjustments in 2023, they're actually profitable. So I was kind of impressed by that. So good for them. Congrats Weeble. But anyway, that said, there's there's a lot you could do here with real fundamental analysis now that we're getting new estimates coming out.
And Jamie Diamond gives you a little bit of a formula for that. Don't expect much growth in 2025. and he says, "Look, if we have a mild recession, obviously things will be worse. If we have a bad recession, things will be even worse." They say this, they talk about this in their earnings call, but it's not so much a matter of what's in the earnings call about speculation over what's going to happen with earnings that matters in this trade warfare.
What matters more to Jaime Diamond is actually what's happening on a global level. And this is the Jaime Diamond warning and bank warning. I'll provide you that. Then we'll go into Morgan Stanley and other tariff updates. The big JP Morgan or Jamie Diamond warning is right here. It basically argues that through tariffs, we are potentially fracturing relationships that we have that preserve and prevent war.
In fact, he argues the following. We've got not only the war in Ukraine, terrorism in the Middle East, and the real possibility that Iran may develop a nuclear weapon. In fairness, supposedly we had pretty good indirect talks this weekend with Iran. We'll see how that develops. Everybody always says that and then who knows.
But anyway, uh Europe's potential fragmentation, ongoing trade disputes, the rise of China. If Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, many other nations around the world will seek to acquire nuclear weapons, presenting us with a catastrophic situation. A nuclear a global nuclear arms race is the worst outcome that could happen to our world.
And this may be the greatest threat to mankind's survival. Lastly, it is extremely important to recognize that security and economics are interconnected. Economic warfare has caused military warfare in the past. And Jaime Diamond is right about this. And I think as hyperbolic as it sounds that we're talking about nuclear proliferation, it shouldn't be.
We've been talking about nuclear non-prololiferation for 30 years or more now. But I mean do consider the Palispanisian wars, Sparta versus Athens, all about money. Ancient wars, money. Dutch Republic versus England, money. Napoleonic wars, Napoleon Bonapart, money. Revolutionary war, taxation without representation.
Wow. The Trump administration is literally getting sued by a trade union for that today because they argue Trump shouldn't be able to use his emergency powers to tariff to solve the national debt because that doesn't deserve using emergency powers. That's actually basically a levy of taxation without representation and that should be conducted by Congress because Congress represents us.
Of course, Trump administration argues, well, y'all voted for me. But then again, we have representatives for a reason. The war of 1812 was about money. The Opium Wars were about money. People say Russia Ukraine is about money. Although a lot of people also argue that the war in Ukraine is really just a proxy war between the United States and Russia and really the sides of the world.
You have the West, so Europe, Canada, uh, and the United States along with like the likes of Japan and South Korea against China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Mind you, North Koreans, listen to this. I I saved this. Actually, I didn't save it. I I read it and then I threw it away and then No, Lauren threw it away and then I had to get it out of the trash can.
So, I I resaved it, I guess you could say. Recycling bin. Okay. But anyway, South Korea, sorry, North Korea. North Korea per the Financial Times has more than 11,000 soldiers in Russia. Not only that, Iran we know has been supplying drones to Russia. They manufacture drones in Russia on their behalf.
And listen to this. This is the craziest piece. And this is actually kind of scary to me because mind you, China has called us the enemy. Obviously, the Trump administration has called China the enemy. But this is kind of scary. Look at this. Kiev claims Chinese fighters or in Russia. Kiev captures Chinese men fighting for Putin.
These are real issues where what we really have is on our side, we have a CIA that's basically targeting Russians with US-made weapons, US-made bombs, US-made intelligence, targeting Russians, and the Ukrainians are pushing the launch button, you know, obviously, and much more. They're sacrificing their lives, and they're fighting for for their territory.
But there's a lot of CIA involvement here. They're basically directly now attacking North Korea and China on the battlefield through the guise of Russia versus Ukraine. And so when you put this together and sort of the historical context that yes, economic warfare can turn into global warfare, Jaime Diamond doesn't actually have a bad point.
Now, of course, he makes the generic arguments too that, hey, we need better education in America. Social media algorithms are making people too divisive. He argues that. He's got a whole piece on that. He talks about how again we need more education and we need more industrialization in the United States for national security purposes.
We can agree on all that good stuff, but I actually think he provides a very real warning that like who cares about just a recession. This trade war is more than just a recession. At this point, a recession almost feels like a foregone conclusion. I'll give you Morgan Stanley's warning in just a moment, but this isn't good.
Especially since you've got somebody as big as Jaime Diamond arguing, hey, you know, be careful. This trade war that's going on could lead to a lot of unintended consequences and they could be really bad for the longer term future of America. All right, enough of that. It's doom and gloomy enough. I want to talk about what Morgan Stanley says as a result of sort of like all of this I don't know what you would call it uncertainty or uh yeah you know sort of Trumpism whatever you want to call it art of the dealism right uh before I do that I just want to quickly shout out take me 10 seconds here the MCA membership expires tomorrow at 11:59 p.m.
Basically what that means is the pricing that there is now is going to be a lot higher uh after 11:59 p.m. tomorrow's the 15th already. So, if you want to lock in this pricing, look at that. It's less than a buck 63 a day or it's a buck 63 a day here. Buck 63 a day. You want to lock in that pricing and get access to all the courses, all the new lectures, the trade alerts when we send them or the course member live streams where we literally talk tactical trading every single day.
We talk strategies, alpha report, everything. You want to be part of this and the fundamental analysis that we do, consider subscribing. Go to mekevin.com and you will lock in your price forever guaranteed. The price will not go up on you. that is great. But if you join after the 15th, the price will go up and when the price goes up, you're locking in that higher price.
So, this doesn't make doesn't mean you get a bad price, but it's going to be a lot more than this. So, this is a pretty good deal. And I encourage you to check this out over at mekevin.com within well the next, you know, 24 hours or however long it is between when you're watching this video and uh 11:59 p.m.
on the 15th. So, check that out over at mekevin.com. Okay. So now we need to talk Morgan Stanley and get through some of these other Trump updates because there are a lot of them mind you also. Oh yeah, this is worth mentioning this as well. Look at this. Uh China ready to work with Vietnam. China is already working with all of our allies.
China's working with Canada. China's working with the European Union. China is working with Vietnam. They're working with Japan. Basically, all of our friends are working with China. Meanwhile, now China is essentially fighting us on the battlefield in Ukraine. It's crazy. So Jamie Diamond has a really good point here and it's something we should pay attention to.
That said, Morgan Stanley uh has some thoughts on this. So Morgan Stanley argues that there's so much in the way of volatility right now that you kind of have to come into this expecting that there's going to be more drama coming. They literally say investors should be prepared to be fooled many more times.
They say, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Hold your convictions loosely and keep your stop losses tight. If a master plan exists, such as offsetting negative economic impact with tariffs of the tariffs with fiscal and monetary easing, it's unlikely to work the way Trump expects.
So in other words, even if they magically try to solve everything, don't expect the economic damage is going to be limited." Now, this is a pretty negative POV by Morgan Stanley. And honestly, I've seen a lot of pretty negative institutions. It's one of the reasons why I think today we had some, you know, we ran at the beginning of the day, we had a pullback in the middle of the day, and a little bit of pullback at the end of the day, too.
But overall, it was a relatively positive day, but we're just not getting that aggressiveness to the upside. Probably because a lot of people are looking, saying, you know what, this is the perfect time. We're still relatively near all-time highs. Let's take some money off the table. Let's diversify.
People are going into gold. People are fleeing the dollar. They're fleeing the treasuries market, which is a mistake. If we go into a recession, the Treasury market is going to be your best yielding asset of 2025, but whatever. That's my take, not personalized advice for you. Uh, but there are also risks, right?
I mean, look at the the spread between the 2-year and the 10ear. It's 53 basis points. Anything over 50 puts you at shock risk. Imagine you're at the gas station, you spilled a bunch of fuel over the floor and you're just waiting for that guy to walk by who thinks it's funny to throw a cigarette, you know, flick a cigarette over at your puddle of gas.
This is a problem. That's the situation we're in right now. And I think that's why a lot of the institutions are like, man, all right, we think earnings estimates are going to come down. We think growth is going to come down. A lot of companies are going to pull guidance. They're not going to give us guidance because it's too soon to tell what's going to happen.
Academy Securities has a POV on this. Uh they suggest that we basically we need to become familiar with this Trump behavior where we say these outlandish things and then or we do outlandish things and then they just sort of get normalized and then they go away. Like the last time we heard anybody mention Canada as the 51st state was Marco Rubio in mid-March and Academy Securities is like are we just giving up on that?
Like are we no longer annexing Canada? nobody's talking about it anymore. And they kind of use this as a way to say like, hey, maybe they'll do that with stocks or or tariffs as well. So, Academy Securities actually goes bullish and they say, quote, "I can be comfortable that for now the lows are in for stocks and the wides are in for credit spreads as the economic slowdown I fear will take longer to play out and might be preempted by rapid policy alignment." Okay.
So, in other words, Academy Securities has hopes that, hey, you know, we'll get our tax cut plan. We'll get some positive movement on tariffs and everything will be fine. And in fairness, we got some incredible exemptions this weekend that were really good for big business. I'll put up all the exemptions on screen.
They're right here. This is the list of uh categories for exemptions. Computers, computer parts, smartphones. Uh mind you also certain manufacturing equipment that's critical for companies like SpaceX where they buy machines from China to manufacture their Starlink chipboards. Uh these are included in the exemptions.
A lot of people got pissed over the weekend that this was just like a big Wall Street bailout for big firms like Apple or Nvidia and Dell and Microsoft and they or Google and they really left behind smaller businesses because toys and furniture and all that stuff. They're still subject to 140% tariffs with China.
Donald Trump to this came back and said, well, you know, all these are still subject to the 20% fentanyl tariffs. We're just moving them to a different bucket. And so you've got a lot of this sort of like classic Trumpism, which is not that they're purposfully trying to be as, you know, erratic as this.
It just seems like they sort of make a decision and then they don't really think much after they make the decision and they just announce the decision and then when people are like, "Wait, but what about this?" They're like, "Oh, yeah. This is actually what we meant." So, so this this is one of the reasons we're getting this volatility.
And this is, I think, why some institutions are like, "Just get used to it." Like that's just what we're going to have right now. But at least now it feels like we're going down rather than up. And in fairness that seems true so far. You can see her here uh contribution to average US tariff rate by end use.
This was before liberation day. Uh this was on the initial wave of tariffs. Uh here was liberation day. Here was uh liberation day with uh a a walk back of liberation day. So one week later when liberation day was supposed to go into effect we unliberated and this was without uh all of the reciprocal tariffs on all the other countries and then here we are with the exemptions for electronic components.
So you can see the average tariff rate has still gone from somewhere around 2% to 24%. So we're still at major tariff rates. you know, Donald Trump is freaking out saying, "Hey, it's not fair that, you know, the mainstream media is is is purposefully trying to ignore that we're trying to say, you know, China is still products from China are still subject to an existing 20% fennel tariffs." He's doing this out of somewhat of a frustration because it has been very confusing to follow exactly what all these changes are.
So, a lot of people are having problems. And I'm not here to defend the mainstream media. But it's just it seems like every hour there's a new interpretation of what's going on, especially because right after this post, then you got Bessant saying, "Hey, we're still expecting to get a lot of revenue from China and a lot of tariffs to stay in effect for China." Then we got Lutnik saying, "Remember this pause is just temporary.
It's coming back." And again, all of it is really exhausting. But I will say something that is positive because I'm trying to give you as much of a balanced POV as possible is the Chinese embassy in the US has said China is assessing the related impact of this you know exemption. This is a small step for the US side to correct its wrong practice of unilateral reciprocal tariffs.
Okay, that's kind of cool. Obviously uh there are some other pieces from institutions that say as a macroeconomist the issue is uncertainty weighs on corporate confidence and this is probably going to be a lot worse than 2018 to 2019 which significantly reduces our economic outlook and this is fair and so this is kind of where you just have to pick which boat you're on you know are you on I don't care if we go into a recession we'll be fine which is basically the JP Morgan way do you think we need to be as worried read as, "Oh, we're going to have a nuclear war and an apocalyptic, you know, fallout." Probably not.
But are there reasons why people are fleeing to gold and away from the dollar and treasuries? Yeah, because it's becoming a little harder to understand and predict America. Some people are predicting that Donald Trump wants to just default on the US debt, default on treasuries. Basically, stop paying interest on treasuries or stop paying it back.
That'd be crazy and it would mostly just hurt Americans. He's also been talking about potentially delisting Chinese ADRs, which just again hurts global confidence in investing in America. So, there's some real problems. Again, maybe they're all just part of the art of the deal, just like, you know, pardoning Trevor Milton or pardoning the three fraudulent founders of BitMX or, you know, firing the person who was pursuing fraud charges against the executive over at Fat Brands after Donald Trump.
donated or had donations from that executive who worked for Fat Brands and then all of a sudden that prosecutor gets fired because, you know, oh, some executive made delicious donations to the Trump uh, you know, administration. Uh, another one that was found guilty of market manipulation and fraud, Justin Sun invested $30 million into Donald Trump's World Liberty Financial, which is really nothing at this point.
uh and Donald Trump and the you know Trump children have taken control of the whole organization basically. Uh this person donates donates invested $30 million into World Liberty Financial and then all of a sudden oh charges dropped. So you know a lot of people are like huh this is interesting including like why all of a sudden are so many white collar fraud and bribery charges being dropped?
Oh, because we ended the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Why did we do that? Well, the Trump administration says because in other countries bribery is normal and we want to be competitive. Okay, fine. But the point is people like there are businesses and companies and investors who look at the America and they're like, "Okay, this is like the premium server where they're going to ban hackers." And now all of a sudden somebody came in and started sound like nah we we don't really care if people are hacking.
Like if somebody hacks, you know, good on them. I guess they figured out how to, you know, cheat better than you. Uh and and that's frustrating a lot of people. So that's just like I'm not trying to take a POV on it. I'm just trying to voice the opinions of of some. And that's why you're seeing somewhat of a flight from the dollar and bonds and into gold.
And it's also why you're seeing some softness in stocks. Like you're not really seeing a skyrocketing in stocks again with the exception of like Weeble where like 2% of their shares are outstanding which is crazy again because Newsmax has six had 6% of their shares outstanding as as free float you know tradable float uh and they skyrocketed and then died like a meme stock.
Weevil only 2% outstanding. Wild. So even lower even trying to go for small trying to go for even less liquidity. It's crazy. So anyway, all of this I think is really interesting and it really goes to show why there's just so much uncertainty. But I think as an investor, you just have to look at all this and say, "All right, can I get through a recession?" Yes or no.
If you can, great. Then just keep investing in what you're good at. If you're good at buying the dip, keep doing that. If you're good at real estate, keep doing that. If you're good at both, do both. For us at House Hack, we're going to keep raising money. You're welcome to invest with us if you want.
You earn a 5% yield. You get upside protection uh because you get 100% of the upside of the stock as long as our stock value goes up and you get downside protection which is kind of cool. Check it out over at house hack.com. We have an accredited race going on and a nonacredited race. Make sure to read the uh paperwork because this video can't be a solicitation.
All that said invest the way that you think is right for you. But so far things do seem to be chilling out. V is chilling and we're basically just gearing up for the next shock because that treasury curve suggests we're primed for it. Hopefully it doesn't com.
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