저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프의 관세 번복 직후 채권시장 유동성 위기(베이시스 트레이드 청산)가 발생해 월가가 공포에 빠졌으며, 2-10년 스프레드가 신용충격 임계치(0.5) 부근이라 경기침체 위험이 크다고 주장. 중국 관세는 실질 145%로 상향됐고 소비재 관세 부담도 커졌다고 봄. 연준은 인플레 우려로 단기 금리인하가 어렵다고 전망. 레버리지 ETF는 하락장에서 치명적이라며 경계, 본인은 방어적 포지션을 유지하고 베어마켓 랠리를 추격하지 말라고 권고.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes. I just saw Wall Street freak out in their emails referencing Dumb and Dumber quotes about how bad things were getting. And in this video, I'm going to break down to you what just happened. And yeah, it's the same thing that got Donald Trump to flip. And it's a way worse than anybody's talking about.
So, we've got to address that. Now, the good news is maybe we could avoid that happening again. But there are conditions growing right now that say we may have just kicked the can down the road. So, I'm going to give you exactly what to pay attention to and what to look for. In addition, we're going to talk about what just happened with Donald Trump raising tariffs on China to not 125% but actually 145%.
So, we'll start with Wall Street freaking out. We'll talk about the bond market and Trump. We'll talk about China. But what we're also going to do is we're going to talk about the actual practical impact of Donald Trump's tariff flip-flop. We'll talk about the Federal Reserve's response to this. We'll talk about the CPI numbers and how much you should be paying attention to some of the data that's coming out and specifically which data to pay attention to.
And I'll break down sort of my thoughts on exactly what's going on. So, there's a lot to cover. I'm going to try to keep this as organized as possible because yes, putting this together is a lot and I understand watching it can be a lot as well, but frankly, this is really important information. So, let's get started with the Namora research freakout.
So, this happened on Tuesday, and I read this email on Tuesday, and I'm like, my gosh, I've never seen something like this before. That night, we had a bond market crisis, and the very next morning, Donald Trump U-turned. Before we get to that, let me show you some of the parts that were in the email and the rest of it wasn't good either.
But let's just look at some of the more glaring ones just to give you a sample of how much Wall Street was starting to freak out and how people have already been laying the seeds for Federal Reserve bailout. Yeah, you can't make this stuff up. Take a look at this. So, right here they show the VIX at an extreme level relative to the VIX.
and they say, quote, "We are so cooked and have no idea where we're going, but it's going to be big." That's just one sample. In their piece, they talk about how shock levels right now, this was on Tuesday, are back to levels we saw during the summer of the COVID shutdown, so think like April, May, and tariffs are immediately going to drag US and global growth lower in the weeks and months ahead.
These were some of the items they talked about in their email. They say that profit margin absorption is likely to lead to layoffs and that right now the cash bond calamity is the worst that they've seen in their career. That they're literally seeing a quote vacuum of liquidity. And that's a problem because when you get a vacuum of liquidity, you prime yourself for more shock potential for real shocks.
I want you to see this screenshot from their letter right here because it shows you how worried they are. Take a look at this right here. Oh, and as per Ryan Plant's note, our pets heads are falling off where it's just unwind city and bears steepening shock with swap spreads and basis trades melting blah blah blah cash bond calamity and cheaping cheapening violently to the swap.
something Ryan calls one of the largest, if not the largest, I remember in my career. It's simply a vacuum of liquidity at this point. All right, I'm going to translate all of this to English because this is like CFA, extremely high level finance. It makes sense if you're in it on a daily basis for most of us.
It it doesn't. What you want to take away from this is this No Mora research email. I've never seen them say things like, "This is the worst liquidity I've seen my life. There's a calamity happening in the bond market and we are so cooked we have no idea where we're going but it's about to be big. Those are like that's not fear-mongering for me in my opinion.
That's me looking at this going, "Oh, what the hell is going on? This this doesn't sound good. This is unlike something I've ever seen before." And this explains why some people are already begging for a Federal Reserve bailout. But let's try to now explain the bond crisis that happened on Tuesday evening because it's going to help you watch for what could happen again in the future.
And it has to do with the unwind of the basis trade. Now, I'm going to explain that really simply because that's another one that's really annoying. But let's put it this way. If you want a single chart that should let you know when you want to be concerned about a credit shock happening, mind you what a credit shock is, banks stop lending to businesses.
Liquidity dries up, so banks can't lend anymore because nobody's buying those loans on the secondary market. So banks say, you know what, we're done lending. And all of a sudden, consumer credit dries up, business credit dries up, and you're in a deep, dark recession, right? One tool to make this to make your life easy if you want to track this is I want you to watch what's going on in the 210ear spread.
So just type this into Google. Okay, we'll do it together here so you could see how easy it is. 2 space 10 spread treasury CNBC enter. Okay, click the first link. I want you to watch this chart. This chart historically says you have a loaded gun to your head and you are primed for problems when this number is over.5 but only after you've gone through a steep inversion which we have gone through a steep inversion where the number was negative.
The last time was in 2007 this happened and the time before that was during the dotcom bubble. Usually you get a shock between the level of 0.5 and 0.9 that confirms a recession and the basis trade liquidity unwind could just be a contributor to that. Now if you want to skip this explanation just skip forward like a minute or two but if you want to hear it I'm going to use Tesla stock to try to explain the basis trade.
The easiest way to explain this is assume that instead of treasuries uh we'll use Tesla stock. that's a little bit more relatable to us and I think we can understand that a little bit better. So, what I want you to think is let's say you buy a 100 shares of Tesla uh at uh $200 and uh that would work out to $20,000 or yeah $20,000, right?
So 20K is is what you've invested 100x Tesla shares at $220. I know Tesla's not trading for $200 right now. I'm just using this to have simple math. Now, what you're going to do is you're going to have a short futures contract. This basically means you are promising to deliver a 100 shares of Tesla, except you're going to bet that you could deliver those at $210.
Now, the goal of this is that you're going to earn premium on this futures contract because you're selling a contract. So, you're going to earn premium for that. And somebody who buys that is assuming Tesla might be worth a lot more. And the difference between a futures contract and an option, mind you, it's just that a futures contract promises a delivery at the expiration date.
This is this is critical. And again, replace Tesla for treasuries here. Again, if this is complicated, just skip forward like a minute or two because there's a lot we have to cover here. But just to give you a quick example of what the heck happened on Tuesday night, apparently, and this is in the treasuries market, so replace Tesla stock with treasuries.
Apparently, what happened is there was so much drama in the stock market that people were selling stocks like the Japanese carry trade situation. They're selling gold and they're selling bonds and all of a sudden treasury yields are skyrocketing. The 30-year went almost up to 5%. Because people are dumping treasury bonds.
So, what happens? Well, again, assume Tesla stock is that treasury. Let's say Tesla stock goes to $150. Okay? Well, you've just lost 25% on your underlying uh $20,000 investment. And since you probably took on margin for this futures contract, which is commonly done in banking, you typically see 20 to 50x margin on these basis trades.
And that sounds insane. Well, because it is, but it's usually because the treasury market doesn't move that much. like you're not going to take 20 to 50x margin on Tesla, but you might on treasuries because they they usually don't move so dramatically. The problem was everybody was dumping stocks so much Thursday, Friday, Monday that all of a sudden it got to people dumping treasury bonds and treasury bond yields are skyrocketing.
You know, TLT is getting smoked as an example. Why? Because people are panic selling. Then they're getting margin called. So now what's happening is sure they're making money on their futures contract, right? you get to keep your premium over here, but the premium you're earning here is a fraction of the money you just lost on the underlying Tesla shares that you're long on.
So, how it actually happened was again, this was your underlying treasuries were losing a crapload of money. So, you got margin called and then you had to sell your underlying positions and then you had to panic close your futures contracts too to try to make up, you know, at least some premium so you could pay off your margin.
and basically led to reinforced selling in the bond market. And this is why institutions are like, "Oh my gosh, we're seeing just a complete liquidity trap." Because what happens when people quickly sell a lot of treasuries, you need a counterparty to buy those treasuries. Problem is, dealers couldn't buy all of that volume.
And so what happens? Well, the price just plummets even more until somebody buys it and rates skyrocket. Now, what's interesting is this is exactly what was foreshadowed by a Brookings paper uh just about a week and a half ago. Now, this is kind of eerie, but I want you to see this. Here's a Brookings paper.
Here are just segments from it. Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bank March 27th to 28th. Here they basically explain that any exogeneous shock that reduces the wealth of hedge funds or impairs their access to funding can lead to sharp unwinds leading to a spike in the price differential between the two markets.
Okay, this is all like fugazi fugazi like big language stuff, right? But listen to this. To relieve the stress on dealers, it would be sufficient for the Fed to take the other side of this unwind purchasing Treasury securities and fully hedging this purchase with an offsetting sale of futures. Okay?
In other words, let the Fed take over the basis trade. This paper was issued before liberation day because the problems were already growing and they just came to to a critical mass on the night of the 8th. Now, here's a former Fed staffer now at Bank of America also freaking out and this was on Monday and they basically say when Treasury assets are liquidated, dealer capacity can be overwhelmed and assets cheapen versus Fed policy benchmarks.
Swaps are not assets. therefore cannot be sold to generate cash in uncertain shocks like the April 2nd tariff announcement. This is the same person by the way that predicted the Fed was going to come bail out markets in March of 2020 during co. So, in other words, like most of us have been watching the market over the past, you know, week here and we're like, "Oh, great.
Yay." You know, things are fine. But what actually happened behind the scene behind the scenes was anything but fine. But institutions, hedge funds, Fed watchers, people were freaking out. Now, I mean, I know you and me, we're like, who cares if the hedgeis lose money? The problem isn't that the hedgeis lose money.
It's that liquidity goes to zero and lending stops. That's the whole point. That is a credit shock. And a credit shock is like a loaded gun that you're holding to your head and you have a hair trigger. And credit shocks are most likely when that 210 spread is above 0.5. This morning when I was actually planning this video, it was at 48.
Well, now we're at 0.56. But then again, this morning I also sent a message to all my, you know, course members, not only in the live stream, but in the alpha report. I want you to hear what I said, okay? I said that I feel like we are going to see a reloading of shorts today and I am not bullish on buying.
Let's watch. Let's see what happens. But I think what's going to happen is we're going to move lower and puts or certainly sold calls are a lot more desirable. That's what I sent in the alpha report. That's what I sent to course members this morning. And I said, look, Tesla being down 3% is fine. It was up 22% yesterday.
But the problem is if Tesla loses the 258 line, we're probably going down to 248 to 250 again. And take a look what happened. You can see Tesla's now down 7.69%. Now, this is all stuff that I say here in the pre-market and if you want access to this, just join the Meet Kevin membership. I do this every single day and and I take the bias out of it.
I just try to give you information. Now, there's a lot more to talk about. We got to talk about inflation, the Fed, and China. There's a lot we have to talk about in here, but I just want, you know, 10-second pitch here, okay? Go to me, Kevin. You get all the trade alerts, all eight courses, every private live stream, every alpha report where I talk about this stuff.
I give you the setup as the market opens and before the market opens. So, you're ready. And if you want this, select your access. You want to pay monthly, quarterly, annually. All of these prices are going up on April 15th in 5 days. So, check it out. If you got questions, email us at staffme.com. All right.
And enough of that. So now what we need to talk about is now we know that we were really close to hell. Really close to banking hell. This is why Jamie Diamond went on Fox uh you know Maria's show uh Wednesday morning and is like yeah we're probably leaning into a recession here and things are bad. People think that Donald Trump not only saw that show but then got a text from Jamie's like you need to do something.
So yeah insiders knew that Trump was going to flip. Bloomberg argues that Trump flipped due to the bond market. And Trump also says that Trump says, "I saw last night people were getting a little queasy about the bond market and he flips." So there's no question that this wasn't planned. Okay, Trump Trump didn't plan this.
Trump had to flip because things were about to go to hell. So he did the right thing. He flipped. Thank Thank goodness he did because things could have been really bad. The problem is Trump may not be done with this. And the more the stock market recovers, the more we embolden Trump to actually be more aggressive with tariff policy.
I want you to see this journal piece that's out today. Take a look at this line in here. In the journal piece, Trump played his cards close to his vest. He told advisers that he was willing to take pain. A person who spoke to him on Monday said he privately acknowledged that his trade policy could trigger a recession, but said he wanted to be sure it didn't cause a depression, according to people familiar with conversations.
So in other words, Trump is willing to suffer a recession and that's why but he he blinked because of the bond market, but he's willing to suffer a recession. And a lot of people on Wall Street are like, "Oh, this is just going to be a technical recession. This will be a soft or short recession." The problem with that, folks, is that's what everybody said in 2006.
And remember, the biggest bare market or like the biggest rallies in the stock market usually occur during bare markets. Look at this for a moment. I'll put this on screen here. Take a look at this. This was in 1930 during the Great Depression. You literally had jumps of plus 48% plus 16% plus 24 plus 26 plus 38%.
These are massive moves, but you were on a massive downtrend for years. So, we have to be careful about assuming that these bare market rallies are reducing risk. They're actually increasing risk because a they embolden Trump and b things are more expensive. And that's why I think people are diversifying and and they're trying to get out of the stock market uh at higher prices.
So they're taking advantage of these rallies. You know, yesterday closing shorts. Today maybe reloading on shorts. We'll see. Now, where are we with tariffs today? Well, the problem is we think that tariffs flip-flopped away, but they may not have. Tariffs on China were just clarified by the White House not to be 125%.
They're actually 145%. which is an extra 20% because the fentanyl tariffs, the you know 301 tariffs, this is even higher than where we thought uh the the tariffs were going to be. So this means you have 125% reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs of 21% section 301 plus the baseline tariffs, you know, typically somewhere between 1 to 3%.
This is 145 to 148% set of tariffs on China. Mind you, Tesla is not immune to this. Tesla gets in my estimates 98% of their batteries from China. the lithium ion phosphate batteries. I'm not talking about the, you know, 4680s that we, uh, you know, assemble at Lethrop Lethrop and, um, uh, and in Austin for the Cybert trucks, the structural batteries, which, you know, there have been questions around how efficient these are anyway.
But they're certainly more expensive, way more expensive than what China's doing. And this is problematic. This is where the margins are for Tesla. And I love Tesla. I'm just saying this this is a margin hit for Tesla. Like Tesla's real exposure to China. These China tariffs are the worst and it doesn't feel like things are getting better.
Not only that, but there's the argument being made by Bloomberg that the tariffs that we have now are actually worse than where we were before uh Trump's flip-flop for consumer goods. Now, that's crazy, but look at this. Here's where tariffs were in 2024. Very low, somewhere around 2%. Without reciprocal tariffs, you know, with the 20% tariffs or whatever, we're somewhere around an average of 8 to 10%.
with China's 84% reciprocal and country specific. So before the flip-flop, we were somewhere over here at 27%. And now we're sitting at maybe 26% tariffs. So in other and and this is this is 125% for China. Bloomberg hasn't even updated that to 145 yet because the White House just minutes ago came out and said, "Oh, it's actually 12 45, not 125." So this comes after yesterday where they're like, "Oh, we're not actually going to raise tariffs on China anymore.
125 is the cap." And then today they're like, "Oh, but we forgot the fentanyl tariffs, so it's actually 145." This is crazy. This is like pure insanity, and it hurts consumer goods even more. Now, people are like, "Oh, we're just going to bully China." I don't think so. I mean, I follow uh the the and this, you know, people leaving comments like, "Kevin, you're just sharing Chinese propaganda." Look at this.
Maybe it is. But look at this. Chinese embassy in US. We will absolutely not sit by and let others take away the Chinese people's legitimate rights and interest or let anyone sabotage international trade rules or multilateral trading system. This was posted today, April 10th. So, you know, let it be Chinese propaganda, but the reality is we're not seeing progress on a trade deal with China.
Certainly not a Tik Tok deal at this point. Things are getting worse with China, not better. So now we got to talk about CPI and the Fed and there's a lot to talk about here. But why did stocks rally so much then yesterday? Well, part of it was probably vibes. You know, people like, "Oh my gosh, we have hope.
We have hope that that, you know, there's an end to the tariffs coming and we're going to avoid a recession." The reality is most of it was probably short covering. Uh in fact, Goldman Sachs reported uh that uh what do we have here? Hedge fund shorts, covers, and macro products uh were were the majority of flows from hedge funds.
However, we did also see the long only community buy tickets and super cap tech as markets moved higher. And the irony about buying stocks when they're going up is you're actually increasing your risk, but whatever. And leveraged ETF demand into the close appeared very real. Leveraged ETFs are like the stupidest things ever, mind you.
Uh and and you know, I I talked to my course members about this too, and you should know this, but so I'm just going to give you a quick example on this. People always ask me, "Oh, why not have a triple leverage ETF?" It's fine for the very short term, you know, one, two months. But look at what can happen in a down market with a leveraged ETF.
Let's say you start with $100 and you have no leverage and you get a minus30% decline. Okay? So the market goes down 30%. Well, now you're at $70, right? Well, let's say you have a 3x leverage fund that you're invested in, like a 3x micro strategy or Tesla or whatever. Well, in this extreme example where you get minus 30%, you lose $90.
So you're down to $10. Now, after that, let's say the stock triples. Well, if you just had the regular stock, your $70 would now be $210. If you had the triple leveraged ETF, your $10 would now be $30. So, like a down market destroys you if you have exposure to leveraged ETFs. Nobody's talking about that.
And and this is the kind of perspective I I just I I need you to know because I feel like you come to my channel to get the aha moments that you're just not getting anywhere else because people are paring, you know, their their left-wing bias or their right-wing bias to you. And I'm just trying to provide facts.
I it doesn't it doesn't matter to me. Okay? I've I you know, I've positioned myself for safety as of last July. So what happens in the market doesn't matter. Treasury market goes kaput, the stock market goes kaput, it doesn't matter because my exposure is house hack and cash, baby. There's some bonds, but house hack's great.
You know, there's a reason. I'm just looking at this. We got we got another it was like another 10% set of inflows yesterday. Uh probably because there was a jump in pricing. I'm looking at it here. Probably because there was a jump in um uh in stock market prices and people are like, "Oh, great. We can finally get out." I'm not saying that with certainty.
It's hard to know that with certainty. Uh but what I can tell you is uh and I'll give you this little sneak peek. I posted this on uh on X as a little bit of a spoiler, but uh you know, in my opinion, we have something really cool coming that nobody else is doing. Uh and this is just an example of it here.
So, you can see this screenshot right here. Coming soon. Swipe up to buy or sell fractional real estate with no fees. And so, we'll have like individual little uh opportunities like Houseack will put this together uh and and you know, a trading facility as well. So you could like real-time trade this with no fees.
No trading fees, no fees on the fund. Like basically a zero fee residential real estate fund or various ones of them. Uh here's an example where we'll have like a Tesla US factories one where so we buy real estate within some radius of uh Tesla factories. So if you want exposure to Tesla related or Tesla adjacent real estate, it gives you an opportunity to do that.
But not only do that, you can also trade uh and and so you have instant liquidity with no fees, which is great because, you know, a lot of the real estate products that exist are really high fee uh and you don't get good liquidity. Well, so we're going to change that. So, that's really exciting. We got some cool things coming with outside, but that's probably still, you know, 9 to 12 months out and uh and and certainly we'll have closed our fund raise before we launch that because I I suspect valuation will be quite different then.
Who knows? We'll see. Uh so anyway um so what what we have to watch for now is the response from not only China but also the Federal Reserve and data. So this morning you've got folks like David Sachs screaming that oh it's time for a rate cut. Okay look David Sachs the Federal Reserve is not going to cut rates because March inflation was low.
March inflation was low because we didn't have tariffs yet. And a lot of businesses are like, "We are purposefully not going to raise prices because we're going to raise prices in April when the tariffs hit. So get in now." And so you actually had great sales. You know, Best Buy sales up 8% in March.
That's a huge move. They haven't seen that since co. But here's the problem with the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve does not want a repeat of the 1970s. Lori Logan this morning spoke and said the desire to cut rates in the face of potentially higher inflation is basically zero. So don't expect rate cuts soon.
Schmidt from the Kansas City Fed, he argues that we're not going to rely on the temporary effects of tariffs and uh in you know inflation basically. So in other words, we're not going to assume that inflation is going to be transitory because of these tariffs. And how could they be? They're insane right now.
And the risks are growing that we have to balance growth and employment with inflation. Basically, this is a warning to you that growth is about to take it in the nose and employment is about to take it in the nose or on the nose, I guess. So to me, the Federal Reserve is bluntly telling you there's no chance of a rate cut soon.
Schmidt literally said this morning, we are moving from a position of strength to a quote challenging period. And they're watching liquidity minuteby minute. Well, what did I just spend 20 minutes talking to you about? A liquidity vacuum. This is a disaster. People don't have money right now. The cash is running dry.
Now, sure, could that lead to a Fed bailout? Yeah, that doesn't necessarily like having a liquidity facility for hedge funds so they can actually dump more does not mean the Fed's going to cut rates. That's very different. See, the Fed can have a liquidity fund for hedge funds, not you. Rates can still stay high.
And so, you have to remember the 1970s. The 1970s are credited with having the worst Federal Reserve chairman ever. His name was Arthur Burns. And I feel bad for him, but basically anytime some data came out, he would raise or reduce rates rapidly. So, there were insane fluctuations in rate policy in the 70s.
And it basically led the Fed to lose all the credibility they have. Again, I'm not saying they're super credible today. I'm just saying that they lost their credibility. Then it took Paul Vulkar earning it back, who put us through a double recession, 80 and 82, to finally solve inflation. And then we had, you know, a good decade of stock gains after that.
Powell studies Paul Vulkar and Arthur Burns and he talks highly of Paul Vulkar and never mentions Arthur Burns. Well, that's because, as you would expect, you do not want to repeat the 1970s because then you go into a stagflation mess and nobody believes the Fed. So, in my opinion, the odds of a Fed rate cut are actually quite low in the near term.
And that's because, you know, here's our Fed calendar. I think you need April, May, June inflation data because then you would have 3 months of inflation data, a quarter of inflation data suggesting that tariffs are or are not causing inflation before they cut rates. That would mean maybe you could get a rate cut July 29th, but I don't think you get a rate cut before that.
So, that's not super ideal because people are begging for a rate cut right now to sort of prop up their stocks or their investments. But, I think it's misplaced. As somebody who's, you know, a Fed watcher, I I I don't see this happening. Now, I know markets are pricing in three to four, sometimes even five rate cuts depending on the day.
But I think a lot of that is because markets, the bond market is frankly seeing the odds of a recession over the next 12 months as sure being a little bit lower than yesterday because of the tariff flip-flop. But again, the damage of these China tariffs and the 10% tariffs plus you know all the fentanyl tariffs uh and and you know other aspects.
These these are a real problem. So we're not done yet. Sure, Trump got a little bit of a solace out of uh of the hell that was caused, but you know more tariffs are coming. copper tariffs, lumber tariffs, pharma tariffs, semis tariffs, it's all still coming. That's the Trump irony. The more stability there is in the market, in the stock market and the bond market specifically, the more aggressive Trump gets, it gives him more of a reason to push for more tariffs.
Uh, and so this is why I think people are smart to take a bounce and diversify. And I think that's exactly what's happening in the markets. And that's what I called for this morning in the alpha report. I'm like, I I don't I don't think the the prices are going to keep up and you're going to see a sell down.
And I mean, as I'm watch I'm I'm recording this video, Tesla's now down almost 10%. It's down another 3%. I gave this heads up to all of my course members in the alpha report and in our course member live stream this morning. I've been doing this every single day. Uh if you want to join, go to mekevin.com so you can be a part of that.
But that said, I want you to have my rationale here. Now, what's next? Well, the bottom line is this walk back yesterday was because Donald Trump was driven to the brink because of the bond market, but it doesn't change the fundamentals. Donald Trump is still priming for more tariffs and more aggressiveness.
Now, what would an upshot look like? Well, how about some actual deals announced? Not this Taiwan Vietnam talk, but actual deals. We want actual deals. How about progress with China? That would be huge. How about actual deals with the European Union? That would be huge. And then we need to confirm the April, May, June data, which is always lagged by six weeks.
you know, this this March CPI data, yeah, it was negative, but the Fed doesn't care about that. They care about the post tariff effects. So, you're going to look at April, May, June. The problem is you're not going to actually get that data until May, June, July, and then you have the end of July Fed meeting.
Isn't it going to look at March pre-tariff data? Come on, man. It's a joke. Of course, we were experiencing deflation and disinflation before, but Trump's not responsible for that. Trump's responsible for the inflation we're about to see. So, uh, anyway, look, on the bare bull scale, I'm still sitting at a 29.
I actually haven't changed it at all, uh, since liberation day. It's still it's it's like it's not like sell everything, you know, a level of one, but I've just been stuck at 29. I'm not bullish. I'm not enticed to buy the dip. I don't feel FOMO. Uh I feel fear that uh that that people are uh buying the dip on margin and they're frankly going to get screwed and then lose their job and then be mega screwed and bankruptcies are going to skyrocket.
So I'm I'm nervous. Uh and it doesn't help that the 102 spread is is over 50. It's now at 57. It's crazy. Anyway, these are all my thoughts on everything that's gone on. Hopefully this is helpful and useful to you. .
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