저자: RaoulPal&TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Pal: 금융여건이 2026년 11월경 단기 둔화를 시사, 조정 후 상승 재개 전망. 글로벌 유동성이 비트코인·암호화폐의 장기 핵심 동력이라 주장. Lee: 인플레이션 둔화→연준 금리인하 가능성, 미국 CLARITY법 통과 시 기관 자금 유입 확대 기대. 두 사람 모두 장기 강세 시각 유지, 단기 변동성은 인정.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could be heading for one of the biggest opportunities of this cycle. According to Real Vision CEO Raul Pal, investors should be prepared for what could happen around November. He believes that financial conditions point to a short-term slowdown towards the end of the year, creating the possibility of a correction before the next significant upward push.
If he is right, this weakness could be one of the best buying opportunities before the bull market continues. Raul Pal argues that global liquidity remains the main driver of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the long term. While short-term volatility is inevitable, he believes that improving and expanding business conditions continue to support a much larger upward trend.
Looking further into the future, he says that the development of artificial intelligence, machine economics, and exponential technologies will fundamentally change the global financial system, making ownership of productive digital assets increasingly important. Meanwhile, Tom Lee believes another important catalyst is developing at the same time .
He expects inflation to continue to cool, raising the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which could inject even more liquidity into the markets. He also believes that regulatory certainty in the United States could unlock an unprecedented wave of institutional adoption, opening up access to cryptocurrencies to far more capital than ever before.
In this video, we'll break down why Raul Pal is watching November so closely, why he still thinks the long-term outlook is extremely bullish, and why Tom Lee thinks monetary policy and institutional implementation could fuel the next explosive crypto market move. . So, here are the financial conditions compared to ISM.
Remember, this is a look 9 months into the future. We should watch for weakness in the ISM. In fact, this suggests that around the end of the year, say in November, we should start to see a short-term peak in ISM. Er, so liquidity will peak earlier, and markets will be volatile or correcting during this period.
But other than that, everything looks relatively calm. Of course, we would like to see an increase in liquidity, especially in the US benchmarks, where it has been somewhat sluggish. But all the components are in place , we are in the phase of a full expansion cycle. Everything is moving forward. We have a warning sign in the future.
This tightening of financial conditions was driven by Iran and the strengthening of the dollar and interest rates that this caused. If this starts to pick up , and I think it will, then we will continue the business cycle after some correction in the markets. This is quite logical. We go to the midterm elections and then we adjust.
You know, we saw that after the US elections there was a significant upswing, and at the beginning of the year everything went into decline. And I think that's a perfectly valid question. And this is likely to happen to both tech stocks and cryptocurrency and the markets in general. They will need a break.
But they will try to stimulate the economy and markets as much as possible before the midterm elections. Raul Pal believes that the next few months may test investors' patience, but not their confidence. His model suggests that financial conditions could temporarily slow economic activity around November, creating a period of volatility in markets after a long period of growth.
This does not mean that the overall bull market is over. Instead, he argues that this will be a healthy pause before the next phase of expansion begins. Temporary weakness has often occurred during long market cycles, allowing excessive optimism to subside while stronger fundamentals are laid . After this interview, a number of economic indicators remained stable, and manufacturing activity showed signs of stabilization rather than collapse.
This reinforced the view that the business cycle could still continue, even if volatility returns. Raul also notes that easing geopolitical pressures and easier financial conditions could support a new wave of liquidity later, extending the cycle beyond many investors' expectations. History shows that liquidity eventually finds its way to risky assets, and Bitcoin has repeatedly benefited when this process has gained momentum.
Rather than fearing a correction, long-term investors often see these periods as opportunities to accumulate quality assets before the next upswing. If there is volatility in November , Raul believes it could be just a chapter in a much larger expansion, not the end of it. This prediction becomes even more compelling when you add the liquidity factor, as Raul believes it explains almost everything that happens “under the hood.” Mostly it all comes down to liquidity.
And liquidity is the main driver of the "everything" code. It manages asset prices. And this is what you need to understand: over time, you will see that global liquidity and cryptocurrency are essentially the same graph. There are surpluses, and depending on where you draw the line, Bitcoin is cheap.
In speculative periods, it becomes expensive relative to global liquidity, and that's how it works. You know, people expect a perfect match. And you know, maybe that's my mistake—showing moments when everything lines up perfectly, like with the Nasdaq chart, which makes you think, "Oh my god , it's definitely going to go up and it's definitely going to follow this chart." And then it doesn't happen, because that's how it usually happens.
But overall, if you step back and look at it on a monthly scale, you see an extremely high correlation. You don't need to do anything. According to Raul Pal , the biggest mistake investors make is focusing on headlines rather than liquidity. Every day, markets are awash with news about politics, tariffs, earnings, inflation, and geopolitical tensions.
These events certainly affect short-term price dynamics, but Raul argues that they rarely explain the global trend. Over long periods of time, one force invariably prevails over the others, and that is global liquidity. When there is more money in the financial system, risky assets historically benefit the most, and Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market exhibit one of the strongest correlations.
Raul emphasizes that Bitcoin will not perfectly replicate liquidity levels every week. During speculative phases, prices often outperform fundamentals before eventually cooling down. At other times, Bitcoin may temporarily lag even as liquidity increases. Therefore, he encourages investors to look at the bigger picture and study monthly trends, instead of reacting to daily volatility.
When looking at full market cycles, this relationship becomes remarkably consistent. Recent market events continue to confirm this broader thesis. Improving financial conditions, expectations of monetary easing, and increased participation by institutional players have all contributed to strengthening confidence in digital assets.
Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the overall background continues to point to an expansion of liquidity over time. Understanding this connection changes how investors interpret corrections. Instead of fearing every pullback, they can ask themselves if the liquidity trend has really changed .
For Raoul, this single question often provides the clearest answ advice . So, the “code of everything” is really for you. This is so that you have an easy way to understand how the world works. Why the rich get richer. Why are the poor getting poorer? Which assets actually generate profit? How to predict them.
How to think about the world around us. And most importantly, how to win this game by owning the right assets . By investing your savings in what really matters. And reducing the noise level, because there is not long left until the economic singularity, when we will cease to understand what is happening, because the processes will be under the control of agents, and the agent economy will be hidden from our eyes.
This is a machine economy, for machines, by machines, with machine money, and we don't even see it. When GDP is growing rapidly, by 10-15% per year, but who gets this profit? We do n't know. As intelligence continues to grow exponentially beyond our human comprehension, what role do we have in all of this ?
Our role in all of this is to remain human. The human experience is truly vital. People will not disappear anywhere. We will not be replaced because we can do what AI cannot—be human. But I know for sure that times will be uncertain. Politics will become even noisier. Because , firstly, we have a K- shaped economy, which divides politics.
And, as you can see , this is due to demographics, and there is nothing you can do about it . And then we will fight the uprising of the machines, and that is where politics is heading. And the world will seem quite uncomfortable. Our task is to try to organize our future and simply follow the trends that the "code of everything" gives us.
And that will put you, me, and everyone around us in a much better position to overcome the economic singularity. For Raoul Pal, the "code of everything" is much more than just a market indicator. It is a system for understanding how wealth is created during one of the greatest technological transformations in modern history.
Instead of chasing every headline or reacting to political dramas, he believes investors should focus on the long-term forces that consistently influence asset prices. Liquidity is only one part of the equation, but technology and artificial intelligence are becoming equally important as the global economy enters a new era.
Raul argues that the world is moving steadily towards an economy where intelligent software, autonomous agents and digital infrastructure perform an increasing share of economic activity. Machines will transact with each other, process information instantly, and create entirely new forms of productivity that barely exist today.
This transformation can be uncomfortable because it challenges traditional industries, employment models, and even politics. However, history shows that every major technological revolution ultimately rewarded those who recognized the changes in time, rather than resisting them. His point is not that people are becoming irrelevant, but that human creativity, relationships, and experiences become even more valuable as technology performs routine tasks.
Financial opportunity lies in owning assets that benefit from this transition, rather than suffering from its disruptive impact. For Raul, this includes Bitcoin and other digital assets related to the expansion of the digital economy. The future may seem uncertain, but uncertainty often creates the greatest opportunities for investors willing to think years ahead.
As these long-term trends develop, another respected market strategist believes that monetary policy and regulation could accelerate the process even faster. The bond market is hawkish, believing that the Fed should raise rates. Our bet is that inflation will be lower than expected. People are too focused on oil as a driver of inflation, but we have already experienced an oil shock.
So I think we've already passed the peak inflationary impact from oil. Fundamental inflation drivers are weakening as the housing market is weak and wages are not showing real growth. And this would allow the Fed to actually lower rates, which would be a dovish signal. And now the Clarity Act is, as they say, at the finish line.
This will open the floodgates because the “Clarity Act ” will provide a single oversight body for the entire crypto economy. Today, such a body simply does not exist. Everything is regulated at the state level, and it's disparate, fragmented regulation. Japan and other countries are already implementing a similar version of the “ Clarity Act.” Russia has just passed a similar law.
So the US obviously has to catch up. This will create conditions fo is a significantly larger market than anything that has existed in the crypto industry before. Tom Lee believes the market may be underestimating two powerful forces that could change the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
The first is inflation. While many investors are concerned that rising prices could force central banks to remain aggressive, Tom argues that the opposite could happen. He believes that inflation is gradually cooling due to the stabilization of housing prices, restrained wage growth, and the gradual fading of the effects of energy shocks.
If this trend continues, the Federal Reserve will have more flexibility to lower interest rates, which would improve financial conditions and support risky assets in global markets. The second catalyst is regulation. Tom points to the Clarity Act as a potential watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry in the United States.
A clearer regulatory framework will end years of uncertainty through consistent supervision, making it easier for large financial institutions to participate. Large banks, asset managers, and investment firms awaited greater legal certainty before expanding their digital asset offerings. If this barrier continues to disappear, institutional capital could enter the market on an unprecedented scale.
This opportunity becomes even more compelling as institutions now have multiple ways to gain access through spot Bitcoin ETFs and a developed digital asset infrastructure. Combined with a more favorable monetary backdrop, Tom believes these events could create one of the strongest foundations this market has seen in many years.
Together, these catalysts reinforce the overall bullish outlook already outlined by Raul Pal. When you combine Raoul Pal's concept of liquidity with Tom Lee's views on monetary policy and regulation, a much broader picture begins to emerge. None of them believe that success depends on predicting every short-term market move.
Instead, they focus on identifying the powerful forces that shape entire cycles. Liquidity, innovation, and institutional participation continue to move in the same direction, creating an environment where digital assets can reap benefits for years, not months. This does not mean that the path will be easy.
Corrections will continue to undermine confidence. Unexpected news headlines will create volatility, and sentiment will oscillate between fear and excitement. Such moments have occurred during every major Bitcoin bull market, but each cycle has also demonstrated that investors who focused on long-term fundamentals have often been rewarded as liquidity rebounded and adoption continued to increase.
The current landscape is also significantly different from previous cycles. Public companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, governments are becoming more involved in digital asset policies, institutional custody continues to improve, and spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have made this asset class significantly more accessible to productivity, while tokenization continues to attract the attention of some of the world's largest financial institutions.
For Raoul Pal and Tom Lee, these are not isolated incidents . Together they represent a financial system undergoing structural change. If this transformation continues as they expect, today's uncertainty may later be remembered as a period when the greatest opportunities were secretly created . .
Comments 0