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someone who has made billions in timing market cycles and at least calling them has now opened his order book so to speak on how he spotted trends that helped him make his billions Howard Marks Co chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management is author of the new book mastering the market cycle one of his major claims to fame his nail-biting call to snap up stocks at the very depth of the financial crisis in 2008 when investors fled oaktree invested more than half a billion dollars a week over 15 weeks into stocks and boy was that a bet that paid off now we have a nine and a half year bull market and you can see last week's sell-off on the right makes you wonder is it time for a cycle check well let's bring the guy who does it better than anybody self-made billionaire and the guy Warren Buffett even follows Howard Marks great to have you here thank you for joining us great to be here live I want to know how you saw Wednesday and Thursday of last week when its worst point we saw 1,400 points snapped off the market right like that vaporized well you know I I have been thinking that the market was high in its cycle so anything that brings that back down in the direction of moderate I think is is doing fitting you have this market cycle theory where are we in this market cycle the second-longest bull market run in history actually the longest by some measures but I think that we are in an elevated position where above the midpoint of valuations were above what you might think of as fair value in the stock market not terribly in credit which is what we emphasize I think even more but look the S P has quadrupled from the low ten-year bull market as you described you can't say we're in the early innings you know I believe the easy money has been made and when you're elevated in the cycle as I believe we are then the odds are not on your side I'm a hockey fan so everybody wants to go baseball but aren't we in overtime are we at the shootout point not necessarily not necessarily and and it's easier to talk about baseball because you know what we say with everybody hate talking what we say about baseball was it we're in the eighth-inning okay but we don't know how long it's going to go you see in hockey you know it's number of periods times number of minutes this game is unlike baseball it could go nine innings or 11 or 14 so I think it's in the 8th but that doesn't mean that it starts time to start packing up our stuff we want our viewers not only to read the book but also to be at least caught by your attention here and to at least get a sense of how you spot market cycles what signposts do you look at on the road to investing sure well the I think you look at p/e ratios which are you know a numerical way to say how are things valued you look at the level of optimism we'd rather buy things when there is no optimism like Ledo 8 as you described not when optimism is riding high then we expect prices will be full what are the media saying if the media are saying this is your last best chance to get on this market before it goes to the moon that's worrisome I'd rather say you know what it's down-and-out nobody will ever buy again and then finally I look for whether it's easy or hard for companies to issue deals that shouldn't be done if it's easy to do a deal that shouldn't be done that means the market is not disciplined not skeptical not demanding I don't want to be exposed to risk in that market if if somebody who cared about your children your parents said dad what should I do with this pile of dry powder right now of cash I want to invest it right now at this point in time we're not smart enough to know what the markets going to do tomorrow or this year or next year I would say it's reasonable to invest some today but I would invest cautiously that's the key I would be afraid to be fully committed to this market in risky assets okay but I'd also be afraid to be completely out of it so you know oak tree has had a mantra for a few years now move forward but with caution we are moving forward we are investing we are endeavoring to be fully invested but we're even more cautious than usual Howard Marks he founded it in 1995 it now has what about a hundred and twenty billion in assets congratulations Thank You Lee the book is called mastering the market cycle check it out he's opening his playbook he is a proven proven millionaire it's great to see you please come back I will thank you very much
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