저자: TomLee · 외국인
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트럼프 당선 후 비트코인·소형주·지역은행·금융주 상승 기대. 엔비디아는 블랙웰 수요 강하고 매출 성장 지속, 다만 단기 마진 압박과 Hopper 매출 비중 등 리스크 존재. 마켓캡 4조달러 도달 가능성과 장기 성장 강조.
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join us now on the markets Tom Lee head of research at fundstrat uh Global advisors Chief investment officer at fun Strat Capital the list goes on and on Annie's a a CNBC contributor first post elction uh appearance that we've had um you knew Trump was going to win well the not many people did yes that's uh I'll give you credit are you saying you didn't maybe you didn't say it in so many words but you said it yes I'd say that I we were placing a lot more weight on what the betting markets were pointing to and so uh and we you know when we look at all the Deltas that's and you saw it in the Trump trade and you saw it in Bitcoin correct and you saw it in sectors of the market that would benefit from that's right presumably who but who knows uh from a from a trump presidency so 1,500 points a me out of the gate more to come or are we already we're already there uh I think we need to respect this move I mean it was a trend mendous Rally post election and it continued yesterday I think it really does reflect a lot of money was taken out of the market because of the uncertainty around the election and now we know that because of policy changes and animal spirits that this is really going to benefit things like Bitcoin and small caps and Regional Banks and financials s so you so what do you think an i Powell'ow in a world where artificial intelligence is revolutionizing Industries left right and Center one name continues to shine brighter than ever in the stock market Nvidia on November 20th the AI chip giant once again outpaced expectations during their third quarter earnings release reporting an astonishing Revenue increase of 94% to $35.1 billion this phenomen Al growth however is just the tip of the iceberg Nvidia now valued at a staggering $3.5 trillion is not just Aiming High they're poised to potentially become the first company to hit the $4 trillion Milestone yet what sets Nvidia apart is not just its current dominance but its unique ability to keep surging forward even outstripping Supply constraints and competitive challenges from the likes of AMD and Intel the question on everyone's Minds isn't if Nvidia will hit the $4 trillion mark But when let's delve into why nvidia's journey is capturing the world's attention and fueling investor excitement welcome back everyone to invest ocracy Joseph Moore uh Joseph obviously a lot of discussion so far on Nvidia it's been the talk of the week not just the morning what's your sort of overall initial read on the quarter does it make sense to you as well that you're seeing the stock PR price action lower here after that quarter posted and the expectations going forward yeah I think so I mean the narrative here is going to be the the ramp of Blackwell right and they've used these these descriptions of Blackwell of you know staggering demand insane levels of demand um at the same time your Revenue in the next six months is still driven by majority Hopper which is the older product and you know so I think you're going to have less upside for a couple of quarters here while we move into that Blackwell RAM and that's how we previewed it uh we didn't think there would be uh as much upside maybe as someone thought and and there wasn't but I mean it's still a very good quarter you beat Revenue guidance by $2.5 billion no Semiconductor Company other than Nvidia has ever done that and I think they are looking at a very strong Blackwell cycle into the back half but it is a transitional period as we sort of move from the the later days of Hopper into the the the beginning of the blackw generation there was so much to like in this quarter but nothing is without risk what would be potential concerns for you as you're looking ahead as black well scales yeah well talked about lower gross margin and they did guide gross margin in the first half of next year below our expectations I think that's largely a function of the complexity of Blackwell the the number of different SKS that they're going to have out there the systems innovations that are required there uh and and wrestling with some of the supply constraints around that uh but they did mitigate that concern by talking about much higher gross margins in the back half of the year so actually if you look at our margins for the full year they actually stayed the same uh but we lowered the first half raised the second half and we exit next year at a healthier rate so I think that's one of the elements um and again I think you know when you have these transitional windows we are still talking about a very large number of Hoppers right they'll do north of $30 billion of Hopper Revenue this quarter which is a product that has already been effectively osbor by the Next Generation product so I think there's risk around all of that um but I still feel pretty good about it and I think we're we're looking at the the strength of Blackwell and and this kind of scaling concerns the debates that are out there I think Nvidia did a very good job of addressing that and talking about why this will continue to scale and grow into the back half of the year so you know some risk for sure but I think uh you know 3.6 trillion market cap for those of us who have covered the stock since the IPO is a surprising number but you know they're they're executing really well and the narrative is really strong and the uh the the sequential Decline and networking got a little bit of a look uh last night and this morning um but then got ridden off his noise is it something well they have they talked about most of the core components of networking being up so infin band was up ethernet was up Bluefield was up um so my sense is it is at the noise level I think there's some of the optical component business you know as there's a mix shift towards ethernet they probably have a little bit less of an optical sell through so that's a lower margin part of the business anyway so the core elements of networking continue to be quite strong and I think that um they talked about networking continuing to be strong into next quarter so I think you know there's mostly noise on that but it certainly is something that got people's attention finally the other thing that's getting framed a bit today Joseph is um I mean Jensen's been talking about Sovereign demand for a while now but this recent trip to Japan and this notion that is he trying to diversify away from the big four hyperscalers is he trying to graduate the perception of that pie what do you think yeah I think that there's there are a lot of sources of demand here right I think when you look at inference being close to 40% of Revenue probably over 40% of Revenue and when you look at Sovereign demand as you said they've talked about that as a low teens percentage of Revenue I think some of the Enterprise applications are sort of in a similar mid te percentage of Revenue um you know a lot of the focus goes to these Mega clusters and the the sort of race to have the biggest cluster and people spending tens of billions of dollars and that probably is the element that as you look out to 2026 has the most uncertainty but there are a lot of businesses within this that do have quite solid growth potential including Sovereign including Enterprise including uh some of the the inference parts of the business that you know I we we still have business plateauing somewhat in 2026 but still very good growth prospects you know even as we get past this period of the Blackwell product cycle quite an incredible company incredible run on the stock Joseph you um upgraded of course that Target price here today Joseph Moore thank you very much for being with us following nvidia's quarter Nvidia the grand wizard of AI chip technology has has been Conjuring growth spells that many can only dream of the launch of chat GPT propelled Nvidia into the Avant guard of technological innovation with Revenue growth rates that could make one think they're reading a fantasy novel 94% this quarter alone it's no wonder investors are Spellbound yet beneath this highflying growth lies an intriguing Paradox the company's Revenue doesn't even fully represent the overwhelming demand for its chips this demand is constrained by the ability of Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing to keep up with production it's as if every business wants a piece of nvidia's Blackwell platform described as staggering by CFO Colette CR and yet there's more need than resources to quench the Market's thirs your your read on the the quarter which was you know obviously a beat sales up 94% year on-ear um that is a Slowdown from the prior three quarters which have just been astounding and 94% up year-over-year is amazing obviously but what's your take I mean let's three 025 you're now your your number two position correct with buying a little bit more this morning but let's not Overlook the naysayers the Bears who perhaps partook in too much honey and missed the bus they argue that Fierce competition is laying Siege at nvidia's Gates interestingly despite AMD and Intel's best efforts to enter the AI chip domain Nvidia remains Untouchable with its Cuda software Library providing a mo so deep that it might require a full-fledged aruan effort to cross as CEO Jensen hang hints at scaling Beyond conventional Realms in AI models it becomes apparent that nvidia's magic isn't prone to fading quite the opposite it conjures newer more dazzling Visions regularly and as if defeating trolls wasn't enough Nvidia also aligns its stars with the Dow Jones a move unlike any before in the semiconductor realm history Whispers a sweet tale stocks often sore post inclusion adding a layer of Enchantment to nvidia's already gleaming profile imagine casting a spell where a 14% surge by Year's End becomes a reality it's less about fortune telling and more about making well calculated predictions based on historical data and current market dynamics with champions of technology and profit backing Nvidia it appears their realm will only exp Josh what was your take uh on the quarter you obviously well known uh for being in this stock for a very long period of time I think they were very Artful in the way they maintained everyone's uh enthusiasm for the potential for Blackwell where orders stand the fact that demand is still out outstripping Supply but they didn't ratchet up the excitement too much to put them into a position where they just can't win the next time they report and that's really going to be the company's job going forward it is already the largest market cap company in the world it is already the most must owned stock in the world there's no need to continue to put pressure on themselves to outperform and outperform and outperform so it's harder than it sounds because they do have a really bright future and the revolution is real and the the dominance of G pus and data centers going forward is undeniable and their market share position within that Revolution is also undeniable so they have to now do this quarter after quarter give people realistic guidance execute ship products hit those numbers but not paint themselves into a corner that they can't escape from where the market expects them to double Revenue every year which of course like mathematically will be impossible so far so good I think Jensen understands the mission I think he's accepted the mission and I liked everything I heard last night the most important thing and I'd love to hear Brad react to this is this idea of the moat because competitors are coming in with new Solutions Amazon is ramping up production of their own uh uh tranium 2 chips like they will not have the whole markets themselves forever but they can maintain dominance and it might actually be a good thing for the ecosystem for there to be more products out there I think that's the the the tone that was set last night uh and I think other Invidia Longs heard the same thing that I heard as we reflect on nvidia's Stellar position in the cosmos of the stock market it's clear that this isn't merely a trend it's the beginning of a remarkable narrative in AI driven Innovation nvidia's current state with its solid Financial standing and the Unstoppable demand for its products suggests potential far beyond what's seen today with Nvidia likely to reach or even surpass the $4 trillion doll Mark sooner than expected it becomes a compelling tale for investors seeking a robust and promising growth stock their inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average adds a laurel to their achievements marking a new chapter that has historically seen stocks gain significant value in the investment world where nvidia's EPS doubles annually the possibility of continued growth is not a mere dream but a likely reality this isn't just about betting on numbers or technology it's about investing in a leader that's shaping the future of AI and Computing infrastructure so dear viewers and investors what are your thoughts on nvidia's meteoric Journey could your portfolio benefit from A Touch of nvidia's Magic the stage is set it's time to step on and join the dialogu
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